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Friday, November 20, 2009

2010 World Cup seeding (20 November 2009)

See the update.
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All 32 qualifiers are known now, so hopefully this is the last 2010 World Cup seeding post.

This is not official - it's based on the 2006 FIFA World Cup seeding formula and draw setup (CAF + CONMEBOL in one pot, AFC + CONCACAF + OFC in the other, title holders in Group F).

Algeria/Slovenia replace Egypt/Russia.

Portugal came agonizingly close to getting a seed. They are 0.3 points behind both France and Argentina. FIFA however published rounded totals in 2006 (see this PDF file), so all three will have 49 points.

Rank in the seeding table - Country - Total - Performance points - FIFA Ranking Points
 1 Brazil         59.3 29.3 30.0
2 Germany 59.0 30.3 28.7
3 Italy 56.7 27.3 29.3
4 Spain 56.3 25.3 31.0
5 England 50.7 26.3 24.3
6 France 49.0 23.3 25.7
7 Argentina 49.0 21.0 28.0
--------------------------------
8 Portugal 48.7 22.3 26.3
9 Netherlands 43.0 14.7 28.3
10 Mexico 38.3 19.3 19.0
11 USA 34.0 13.7 20.3
12 Switzerland 30.0 15.3 14.7
13 Paraguay 28.7 11.7 17.0
14 Ghana 24.7 13.3 11.3
15 Cameroon 24.3 3.0 21.3
16 Korea Republic 23.3 15.7 7.7
17 Australia 23.3 11.3 12.0
18 Japan 23.0 13.3 9.7
19 Greece 22.0 0.0 22.0
20 Côte d'Ivoire 21.0 6.0 15.0
21 Nigeria 20.7 2.7 18.0
22 Serbia 20.0 5.3 14.7
23 Denmark 19.7 7.7 12.0
24 Uruguay 19.3 2.7 16.7
25 Chile 12.7 0.0 12.7
26 Slovenia 8.3 2.7 5.7
27 Honduras 7.0 0.0 7.0
28 Slovakia 6.7 0.0 6.7
29 Algeria 6.3 0.0 6.3
30 South Africa 6.0 3.0 3.0
31 New Zealand 2.3 0.0 2.3
32 Korea DPR 1.3 0.0 1.3
Pot 1 (seeded teams): Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2 (rest of UEFA): Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland
Pot 3 (AFC + OFC + CONCACAF): Australia, Honduras, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, Mexico, New Zealand, USA
Pot 4 (CAF + rest of CONMEBOL): Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay

Possible draw (using random.org):

Group A: South Africa, Serbia, USA, Uruguay
Group B: Argentina, Slovakia, Australia, Ghana
Group C: England, Portugal, Mexico, Paraguay
Group D: Brazil, Netherlands, Honduras, Cameroon
Group E: France, Greece, Korea Republic, Nigeria
Group F: Italy, Denmark, Japan, Chile
Group G: Spain, Slovenia, New Zealand, Algeria
Group H: Germany, Switzerland, Korea DPR, Côte d'Ivoire

5 comments:

  1. How do FIFA calculate the placements of QF losers, R16 losers and group stage losers in world cups? For example, what makes England the 7th placed team from 2006?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I believe they look at points and goaldifference in the groupstage. Hence:
    5 Brazil 9 pts +6 goals
    6 Argentina 7 pts +7 goals
    7 England 7 pts +3 goals
    8 Ukraine 6 pts +1 goals

    ReplyDelete
  3. You have to add all points won in the tournament.

    See the comments for this post:

    2010 WC: Seeding formula based on current standings (14 January 2009)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Fifa says the following in their website:

    "If the criteria to determine the seeded teams were to include, as in the past, the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, then it would be the October 2009 edition of this ranking which would be considered, and this for sporting reasons. In fact, using the November 2009 edition would create an uneven situation, specifically for the European Zone, where the play-offs involving the eight best runners-up led to an imbalance in the number of qualification matches played between the teams."

    http://bit.ly/2VZosp

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thank you Felipe, I already saw that.

    Check the update.

    ReplyDelete