2010 World Cup seeding (20 November 2009)

See the update.
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All 32 qualifiers are known now, so hopefully this is the last 2010 World Cup seeding post.

This is not official - it's based on the 2006 FIFA World Cup seeding formula and draw setup (CAF + CONMEBOL in one pot, AFC + CONCACAF + OFC in the other, title holders in Group F).

Algeria/Slovenia replace Egypt/Russia.

Portugal came agonizingly close to getting a seed. They are 0.3 points behind both France and Argentina. FIFA however published rounded totals in 2006 (see this PDF file), so all three will have 49 points.

Rank in the seeding table - Country - Total - Performance points - FIFA Ranking Points

 1 Brazil         59.3 29.3 30.0
 2 Germany        59.0 30.3 28.7
 3 Italy          56.7 27.3 29.3
 4 Spain          56.3 25.3 31.0
 5 England        50.7 26.3 24.3
 6 France         49.0 23.3 25.7
 7 Argentina      49.0 21.0 28.0
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 8 Portugal       48.7 22.3 26.3
 9 Netherlands    43.0 14.7 28.3
10 Mexico         38.3 19.3 19.0
11 USA            34.0 13.7 20.3
12 Switzerland    30.0 15.3 14.7
13 Paraguay       28.7 11.7 17.0
14 Ghana          24.7 13.3 11.3
15 Cameroon       24.3  3.0 21.3
16 Korea Republic 23.3 15.7  7.7
17 Australia      23.3 11.3 12.0
18 Japan          23.0 13.3  9.7
19 Greece         22.0  0.0 22.0
20 Côte d'Ivoire  21.0  6.0 15.0
21 Nigeria        20.7  2.7 18.0
22 Serbia         20.0  5.3 14.7
23 Denmark        19.7  7.7 12.0
24 Uruguay        19.3  2.7 16.7
25 Chile          12.7  0.0 12.7
26 Slovenia        8.3  2.7  5.7
27 Honduras        7.0  0.0  7.0
28 Slovakia        6.7  0.0  6.7
29 Algeria         6.3  0.0  6.3
30 South Africa    6.0  3.0  3.0
31 New Zealand     2.3  0.0  2.3
32 Korea DPR       1.3  0.0  1.3

Pot 1 (seeded teams): Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2 (rest of UEFA): Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland
Pot 3 (AFC + OFC + CONCACAF): Australia, Honduras, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, Mexico, New Zealand, USA
Pot 4 (CAF + rest of CONMEBOL): Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay

Possible draw (using random.org):

Group A: South Africa, Serbia, USA, Uruguay
Group B: Argentina, Slovakia, Australia, Ghana
Group C: England, Portugal, Mexico, Paraguay
Group D: Brazil, Netherlands, Honduras, Cameroon
Group E: France, Greece, Korea Republic, Nigeria
Group F: Italy, Denmark, Japan, Chile
Group G: Spain, Slovenia, New Zealand, Algeria
Group H: Germany, Switzerland, Korea DPR, Côte d'Ivoire