Based on the 2008 ACN draw procedure, it won't actually be a draw. The first seeded team will be placed with the weakest team from each of the other three pots.
With 51 members and 14 places available, CAF will probably use a system with 12 groups of 4 teams and one with 3 teams, with the winners and the best runner-up qualifying. However, if at least 3 members don't enter the qualifying rounds, we'll probably see 12 groups of 4 teams with the winners and the top two runners-up joining the hosts in 2012.
The "usual suspects" to drop from qualifying:
2006 ACN qualifiers:
Central African Republic withdrew.
2008 ACN qualifiers:
Central African Republic, Comoros, Somalia and São Tomé and Príncipe did not enter.
Guinea-Bissau were not allowed to enter.
2010 ACN qualifiers:
São Tomé and Príncipe and the Central African Republic withdrew.
The seeding formula is the sum of:
- 2010 WCQ points
- bonus for qualifying for the 2010 WC (6 points)
- 2010 ACN group stage points
- 2010 ACN performance bonus (12 for the winner, 9 for the finalist, 6 for the SF, 3 for the QF)
Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Tunisia, Benin, Mali, Togo, Mozambique, Zambia
Pot 2: Malawi, Morocco, Guinea, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, South Africa, Senegal, Uganda, Cape Verde Islands, Congo, Angola, Tanzania
Pot 3: Zimbabwe, Namibia, Congo DR, Gambia, Libya, Botswana, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Chad, Burundi, Lesotho, Madagascar
Pot 4: Liberia, Mauritania, Niger, Eritrea, Comoros, Seychelles, Mauritius, Somalia, Djibouti, Guinea-Bissau, Central African Republic, Sao Tome e Principe
I didn't give South Africa the bonus points for WC participation, because they didn't even reach the final CAF qualifying round.
With the exception of Angola, no team below Sudan can break in the top 19.
Group 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Cameroon, Angola, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Algeria, Congo, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Ghana, Cape Verde Islands, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Nigeria, Uganda, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Egypt, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Burkina Faso, South Africa, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Tunisia, Sudan, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Benin, Rwanda, Libya, Eritrea
Group 10: Mali, Kenya, Gambia, Niger
Group 11: Togo, Guinea, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Mozambique, Morocco, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe