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Wednesday, November 25, 2009

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers

This may seem a bit early, but it's not. The draw for the 2012 ACN qualifiers will take place a couple of days after the final of ACN 2010, probably after February 3rd, the day of the first FIFA ranking release for 2010.

Based on the 2008 ACN draw procedure, it won't actually be a draw. The first seeded team will be placed with the weakest team from each of the other three pots.

With 51 members and 14 places available, CAF will probably use a system with 12 groups of 4 teams and one with 3 teams, with the winners and the best runner-up qualifying. However, if at least 3 members don't enter the qualifying rounds, we'll probably see 12 groups of 4 teams with the winners and the top two runners-up joining the hosts in 2012.

The "usual suspects" to drop from qualifying:

2006 ACN qualifiers:

Central African Republic withdrew.

2008 ACN qualifiers:

Central African Republic, Comoros, Somalia and São Tomé and Príncipe did not enter.
Guinea-Bissau were not allowed to enter.
Djibouti withdrew.

2010 ACN qualifiers:

São Tomé and Príncipe and the Central African Republic withdrew.

The seeding formula is the sum of:
  • 2010 WCQ points
  • bonus for qualifying for the 2010 WC (6 points)
  • 2010 ACN group stage points
  • 2010 ACN performance bonus (12 for the winner, 9 for the finalist, 6 for the SF, 3 for the QF)
The rest of the teams will be ranked using the January 2010 FIFA ranking.

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Tunisia, Benin, Mali, Togo, Mozambique, Zambia
Pot 2: Malawi, Morocco, Guinea, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, South Africa, Senegal, Uganda, Cape Verde Islands, Congo, Angola, Tanzania
Pot 3: Zimbabwe, Namibia, Congo DR, Gambia, Libya, Botswana, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Chad, Burundi, Lesotho, Madagascar
Pot 4: Liberia, Mauritania, Niger, Eritrea, Comoros, Seychelles, Mauritius, Somalia, Djibouti, Guinea-Bissau, Central African Republic, Sao Tome e Principe

I didn't give South Africa the bonus points for WC participation, because they didn't even reach the final CAF qualifying round.
With the exception of Angola, no team below Sudan can break in the top 19.

Group 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Cameroon, Angola, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Algeria, Congo, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Ghana, Cape Verde Islands, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Nigeria, Uganda, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Egypt, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Burkina Faso, South Africa, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Tunisia, Sudan, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Benin, Rwanda, Libya, Eritrea
Group 10: Mali, Kenya, Gambia, Niger
Group 11: Togo, Guinea, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Mozambique, Morocco, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.


  1. You have erroneously attributed the 28th December, 2009 Zambia's 1-0 win over Mozambique to Malawi in a friendly in South Africa in preparation for the African Nations cup in Angola. Zambia, not Malawi beat Mozambique 1-0. Please correct your records and attribute points to Zambia accordingly. Samuel Ngoma, Embassy of Zambia, Brussels.

  2. Hi Samuel!

    Malawi defeated Mozambique 1 - 0 on December 19th, 2009 in Tete (Mozambique). Probably Zambia played a friendly against Malawi in South Africa on December 28th, but that friendly was not official when I posted the FIFA ranking preview and probable ranking on December 18th.

    I'm still waiting for FIFA to update the results and fixtures after the holiday break.

  3. thanks for that mate. i hope libya does well this time around as they were unlucky to be knocked out last time when they were in the same group as Ghana n Gabon n only went out on goal difference having achieved 12 points just like Ghana n Gabon.
    where if u looked at the other groups u would find the other teams qualified with only 8 points..
    many thanks

  4. Cameroonian players are all fools and they are supposed to be punish and sanctioned so please leaders should try and do some thing before we are all put to shame mostly the coach is not worthy to coach Cameroon national term or even to coach the 3rd division

  5. Samuel eto'o is not worthy to be a captain in the National team in fact he should be treated like Wome