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Friday, April 22, 2016

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding (22 April 2016)

More info in the first special ranking post.

New friendlies scheduled for Senegal, Egypt, Nigeria and Uganda. Only Nigeria scheduled smartly.

10000 simulations. No changes in the pots, but plenty in the scenarios (scroll down a a bit).



Pot 1: Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Tunisia, Senegal
Pot 2: Egypt, Congo DR, Cape Verde Islands, Guinea, Mali
Pot 3: Nigeria, Congo, Morocco, Cameroon, South Africa
Pot 4: Uganda, Burkina Faso, Zambia, Gabon, Libya

Pot 4

100% - Burkina Faso
100% - Zambia
100% - Gabon
100% - Libya
79.14% - Uganda
16.55% - South Africa
2.13% - Morocco
1.41% - Congo
0.77% - Cameroon

Pot 3

83.45% - South Africa
82.72% - Cameroon
79.22% - Morocco
69.39% - Congo
55.53% - Nigeria
54.07% - Mali
36.72% - Guinea
20.86% - Uganda
17.56% - Cape Verde Islands
0.48% - Congo DR


Pot 2

99.52% - Congo DR
92.16% - Egypt
82.44% - Cape Verde Islands
63.28% - Guinea
45.93% - Mali
44.47% - Nigeria
29.2% - Congo
18.65% - Morocco
16.51% - Cameroon
5.93% - Senegal
1.91% - Tunisia

Pot 1

100% - Algeria
100% - Côte d'Ivoire
100% - Ghana
98.09% - Tunisia
94.07% - Senegal
7.84% - Egypt

By team

10000 simulations for each team and set of results.

Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana - are safe in Pot 1 no matter what happens.
Burkina Faso, Zambia, Gabon, Libya - locked in Pot 4.

Tunisia

Good news for Tunisia - their fate is in their hands. Win vs. Djibouti and they're safe. Of course, they should thank the Egyptian FA for scheduling a friendly vs. Malawi.

Defeat vs. Djibouti - Pot 1: 52.5%; Pot 2: 47.5%;
Draw vs. Djibouti - Pot 1: 52.8%; Pot 2: 47.2%;
Win vs. Djibouti - Pot 1: 100%;

Senegal

Senegal hurt their 100% percentage in the sims by scheduling a friendly vs. Rwanda. However, if they avoid losing both matches, they will be in Pot 1.

Defeat vs. Rwanda; Defeat vs. Burundi - Pot 1: 61.2%; Pot 2: 38.8%;
Draw vs. Rwanda; Defeat vs. Burundi - Pot 1: 61.3%; Pot 2: 38.7%;
Any other result combination - Pot 1: 100%;

Egypt

Wow, I'm lost for words. EFA keep shooting themselves in both feet. It's like they don't want to be seeded.

Win vs. Malawi; Win vs. Tanzania - Pot 1: 15.6%; Pot 2: 84.4%;
Any other result combination - Pot 2: 100%;

Congo DR

Very much a Pot 2 team. Even with two defeats (vs. Romania and Madagascar) they're 94.7% in Pot 2.

Cape Verde Islands

Defeat vs. Sao Tome e Principe - Pot 2: 25.6%; Pot 3: 74.4%;
Draw vs. Sao Tome e Principe - Pot 2: 82.9%; Pot 3: 17.1%;
Win vs. Sao Tome e Principe - Pot 2: 100%;

Guinea

Defeat vs. Swaziland - Pot 2: 15.7%; Pot 3: 84.3%;
Draw vs. Swaziland - Pot 2: 48.7%; Pot 3: 51.3%;
Win vs. Swaziland - Pot 2: 100%;

Mali

Safe in Pot 2 only with 2 wins. Very important to avoid losing to Nigeria.

Defeat vs. Nigeria; Defeat or Draw vs. South Sudan - Pot 3: 100%;
Defeat vs. Nigeria; Win vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 37.9%; Pot 3: 62.1%; Draw vs. Nigeria; Defeat vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 8.9%; Pot 3: 91.1%;
Draw vs. Nigeria; Draw vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 43%; Pot 3: 57%;
Draw vs. Nigeria; Win vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 85%; Pot 3: 15%;
Win vs. Nigeria; Defeat vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 77.8%; Pot 3: 22.2%;
Win vs. Nigeria; Draw vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 86.4%; Pot 3: 13.6%;
Win vs. Nigeria; Win vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 100%;

Nigeria

Had no matches last week. Mali were a very good choice for a friendly. With two wins they are almost in Pot 2 (92.4%). Last week, their Pot 2 chances increased by 50 percentage points.

Draw vs. Mali; Win vs. Luxembourg - Pot 2: 22.6%; Pot 3: 77.4%; Win vs. Mali; Defeat vs. Luxembourg - Pot 2: 47.2%; Pot 3: 52.8%;
Win vs. Mali; Draw vs. Luxembourg - Pot 2: 67.9%; Pot 3: 32.1%;
Win vs. Mali; Win vs. Luxembourg - Pot 2: 92.4%; Pot 3: 7.6%;
Any other result combination - Pot 3: 100%;

Congo

Defeat vs. Morocco; Defeat vs. Kenya - Pot 3: 93.9%; Pot 4: 6.1%;
Defeat vs. Morocco; Win vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 58.1%; Pot 3: 41.9%;
Draw vs. Morocco; Win vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 96%; Pot 3: 4%;
Win vs. Morocco; Defeat vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 19.4%; Pot 3: 80.6%;
Win vs. Morocco; Draw vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 87.7%; Pot 3: 12.3%;
Win vs. Morocco; Win vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 100%;
Any other result combination - Pot 3: 100%;

Morocco

Defeat vs. Congo; Defeat vs. Libya - Pot 3: 75.9%; Pot 4: 24.1%;
Defeat vs. Congo; Draw vs. Libya - Pot 3: 99%; Pot 4: 1%;
Draw vs. Congo; Defeat vs. Libya - Pot 3: 96.9%; Pot 4: 3.1%; Draw vs. Congo; Win vs. Libya - Pot 2: 21%; Pot 3: 79%;


Win vs. Congo; Win vs. Libya - Pot 2: 94.9%; Pot 3: 5.1%;
Any other result combination - Pot 3: 100%;

Cameroon

Defeat vs. France; Defeat vs. Mauritania - Pot 3: 97.3%; Pot 4: 2.7%;
Defeat vs. France; Win vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 24%; Pot 3: 76%; Draw vs. France; Win vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 75.9%; Pot 3: 24.1%;
Win vs. France; Defeat vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 22.1%; Pot 3: 77.9%;
Win vs. France; Draw vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 71.3%; Pot 3: 28.7%;
Win vs. France; Win vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 100%;
Any other result combination - Pot 3: 100%;

South Africa

Defeat vs. Gambia - Pot 3: 69.3%; Pot 4: 30.7%;
Draw vs. Gambia - Pot 3: 75.9%; Pot 4: 24.1%;
Win vs. Gambia - Pot 3: 100%;

Uganda

Last week the Cranes were 100% in Pot 3 with a win vs. Botswana. They went ahead and scheduled a friendly vs. Zimbabwe, and now South Africa are front runners for Pot 3.

Defeat vs. Zimbabwe; Win vs. Botswana - Pot 3: 35.2%; Pot 4: 64.8%;
Draw vs. Zimbabwe; Win vs. Botswana - Pot 3: 62.2%; Pot 4: 37.8%;
Win vs. Zimbabwe; Win vs. Botswana - Pot 3: 81.8%; Pot 4: 18.2%; Any other result combination - Pot 4: 100%; 

130 comments:

  1. The match against Malawi was cancelled.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I read an article saying that the Egyptian FA said they had actually not declared any friendlies for certain. If this is true, is Egypt in pot 1 100% with a win against Tanzania?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Kindly change the simulations after cancelling Malawi game.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Who will it benefit the result of friendly game between Morocco and Egypt?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Another snapshot with regard to the elo predicted points in the extra June 2016 ranking (assuming an issue-date of June 9th) with the seeding pots for round 3 of African WC qualifying based on the current schedule of matches:

    1 (1) Algeria 785
    2 (2) Cote d'Ivoire 736
    3 (3) Ghana 731
    4 (4) Senegal 676
    5 (6) Tunisia 643
    --
    6 (5) Egypt 636
    7 (8) Congo DR 599
    8 (7) Cape Verde Islands 594
    9 (10) Guinea 577
    10 (11) Mali 565
    --
    11 (12) Cameroon 557
    12 (14) Nigeria 554
    13 (13) Morocco 548
    14 (9) Congo 538
    15 (15) South Africa 530
    --
    16 (16) Uganda 520
    17 (17) Burkina Faso 498
    18 (18) Zambia 465
    19 (19) Gabon 383
    20 (20) Libya 319

    For now the Egypt-Malawi friendly is still scheduled. Without it Egypt would have 646 points. The current elo predictions for scheduled matches with African teams involved:

    2016-05-20 HUN - CIV; Friendly; X
    2016-05-25 COD - ROU; Friendly; 2
    2016-05-27 NGA - MLI; Friendly; X
    2016-05-28 RWA - SEN; Friendly; 2
    2016-05-30 EGY - MWI; Friendly; 1
    2016-05-30 FRA - CMR; Friendly; 1
    2016-05-30 MAR - CGO; Friendly; 1
    2016-05-31 ZIM - UGA; Friendly; X
    2016-06-01 LUX - NGA; Friendly; 2
    2016-06-03 DJI - TUN; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-03 LBR - TOG; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-06-03 CTA - ANG; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-06-03 MAD - COD; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-03 BEN - EQG; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-06-03 SSD - MLI; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-03 GNB - ZAM; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-03 KEN - CGO; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-06-03 LBY - MAR; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-06-03 STP - CPV; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-03 SLE - SDN; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-06-03 BDI - SEN; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-03 SWZ - GUI; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-03 ZIM - MWI; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-06-03 GAM - RSA; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-03 MTN - CMR; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-03 GAB - CIV; Friendly; 2
    2016-06-04 BOT - UGA; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-04 COM - BFA; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-04 TAN - EGY; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-04 RWA - MOZ; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-06-04 SEY - ALG; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-04 NAM - NIG; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-06-05 MRI - GHA; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-05 LES - ETH; Continental qualifier; X

    Rachid, both Egypt and Morocco wouldn't gain anything with a friendly between them. The risc of losing valuable points is bigger.
    EGY wins (and no Malawi friendly): 647, MAR 527. MAR wins: 550, EGY 615. A draw: EGY 625, MAR 534. Of course other predictions remain unchanged.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Senegal matches in the 4 years:

    9-Jun-12 UGA(D)
    8-Sep-12 CIV(L)
    13-Oct-12 CIV(L)
    23-Mar-13 ANG(D)
    8-Jun-13 ANG(W)

    27.52


    16-Jun-13 LBR(W)
    6-Jul-13 MRT(D)
    20-Jul-13 MRT(W)
    14-Aug-13 ZAM(D)
    7-Sep-13 UGA(W)
    12-Oct-13 CIV(L)
    16-Nov-13 CIV(D)
    5-Mar-14 MLI(D)
    21-May-14 BFA(D)
    31-May-14 COL(D)

    75.10



    5-Sep-14 EGY
    10-Sep-14 BOT
    11-Oct-14 TUN(D)
    15-Oct-14 TUN(L)
    15-Nov-14 EGY
    19-Nov-14 BOT
    19-Jan-15 GHA
    23-Jan-15 RSA
    27-Jan-15 ALG
    28-Mar-15 GHA

    292.44

    13-Jun-15 BDI(W)
    20-Jun-15 GAM(W)
    4-Jul-15 GAM(W)
    3-Sep-15 NAM(W)
    8-Sep-15 RSA(L)
    13-Oct-15 AlG(L)
    17-Oct-15 GUI(L)
    24-Oct-15 GUI(L)
    13-Nov-15 MAD(D)
    17-Nov-15 MAD(W)
    1-Mar-16 MEX(L)
    25-Mar-16 NIG(W)
    29-Mar-16 NIG(W)
    3-Jun-16 BDI(W)
    28-May-16 RWA(W)

    284.54

    all equals : 679.61

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hossam, you got some errors:
      8/6/13 ANG was a draw (1:1)
      6/7/13 MTN was a win (1:0)
      20/7/13 MTN was a loss (0:2)
      24/10/15 GUI was a win (3:1)

      And for future reference, it's better to present your matchpoints per match if you have a comparative question about the details of a FIFA points calculation.

      Delete
  7. 9-Jun-12 UGA(D) 227.9
    8-Sep-12 CIV(L) 0
    13-Oct-12 CIV(L) 0
    23-Mar-13 ANG(D) 225.75
    8-Jun-13 ANG(D) 234.35


    16-Jun-13 LBR(W) 645
    6-Jul-13 MRT(W) 129
    20-Jul-13 MRT(L) 0
    14-Aug-13 ZAM(D) 120.4
    7-Sep-13 UGA(W) 793.35
    12-Oct-13 CIV(L) 0
    16-Nov-13 CIV(D) 393.45
    5-Mar-14 MLI(D) 121.26
    21-May-14 BFA(D) 119.54
    31-May-14 COL(D) 181.35


    5-Sep-14 EGY(W) 1032.75
    10-Sep-14 BOT(W) 726.75
    11-Oct-14 TUN(D) 359
    15-Oct-14 TUN(L) 0
    15-Nov-14 EGY(W) 1032.75
    19-Nov-14 BOT(W) 624.75
    19-Jan-15 GHA(W) 1246.95
    23-Jan-15 RSA(D) 377.4
    27-Jan-15 ALG(L) 0
    28-Mar-15 GHA(W) 448.5


    13-Jun-15 BDI(W) 420.75
    20-Jun-15 GAM(W) 127.5
    4-Jul-15 GAM(W) 127.5
    3-Sep-15 NAM(W) 567.38
    8-Sep-15 RSA(L) 0
    13-Oct-15 AlG(L) 0
    17-Oct-15 GUI(L) 0
    24-Oct-15 GUI(W) 369.75
    13-Nov-15 MAD(D) 174
    17-Nov-15 MAD(W) 523
    1-Mar-16 MEX(L) 0
    25-Mar-16 NIG(W) 586.5
    29-Mar-16 NIG(W) 586.5
    3-Jun-16 BDI(W) 497.25
    28/5/2016 RWA(W) 288

    Equals 679.61

    ReplyDelete
  8. All correct, except the matchpoints for the Burundi-qualifier of June 3rd. You have to calculate them with the predicted June ranking (position for Burundi there 131) instead of the predicted May ranking where Burundi has spot 122.
    Matchpoints for that match 439,875 instead of 497,25 and resulting first timeframe average 280,73. FIFA points for Senegal in extra June ranking therefore 675,81.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Dear Ed ,
    Egyptian FA announced a week ago the cancelation of their friendly match against Malawi , so what's the status ??!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Also what's the status if they choose other team , what's best friendly match that egypt should do ?

      Delete
  10. I don't know the status of the Egypt-Malawi friendly. All I can see is that this match is still included in FIFA's fixture list at the moment...

    The best friendly they can play is NO friendly. If Egypt want's to at least gain FIFA-points from a friendly they will have to find an opponent from the top-65 of the ranking. To gain more than a few points from it the opponent should preferably be one from the top-40 of the ranking, so ranked above themselves.
    And against such a strong opponent they will have to win it. The risk of drawing or losing is of course much bigger against such an opponent and that will only hurt their points tally.
    So: no friendly is by far the best option.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Tanzania will play against Kenya friendly in 28th May in Nairobi. If Tanzania loss the game, does this result affect Egypt points in 9th June ranking(supposed that Egypt will defeat Tanzania in 4th June)?

    ReplyDelete
  12. For Egypt a Tanzanian win in the Kenya-friendly is best. Because Tanzania will then be higher placed in the June ranking and an Egyptian win in the Tanzania-qualifier delivers more matchpoints.
    Assuming an Egyptian win in the Tanzania-qualifier the points for Egypt in extra June ranking will be (btw still including the Egypt-Malawi friendly):
    TAN win over KEN: 638
    TAN draw with KEN: 634
    KEN win over TAN: 632

    ReplyDelete
  13. Fun fact: if the Egypt-Malawi friendly definitely is not played, then Egypt's fate regarding the seeding in pot 1 could well depend on the outcome of this Kenya-Tanzania friendly.
    As it stands and this friendly ends in the predicted draw and both Egypt and Senegal win their qualifier then both end at 643 points in the extra June ranking with the slight advantage for Egypt: 643.2 against 642.8 for Senegal.
    A loss for Tanzania however results in a pot 2 seeding for Egypt.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry, I meant Tunisia of course, instead of Senegal

      Delete
  14. Egypt will insure its pot 1 seeding by a friendly against DR Congo in Alexandria in the 30th May. To make sure that Tanzania vs Kenya friendly game will not affect EGYPT pot 1 seeding.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What if Egypt played against Congo or Guinea? Would Tanzania's match affect the seeding?

      Delete
  15. Indeed, Egypt should get rid of the friendly against Malawi and play instead Congo DR or Guinea. Congo already plays a friendly on May 30th against Morocco.
    Of course Egypt will have to win that friendly, but if they do their points total in the extra June ranking will always be higher than 643 points, no matter the outcome of the Kenya-Tanzania friendly.
    All based on the current schedule of matches. It could change again if Tunisia decides to play a friendly.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Officially,Egypt will plat against DR Congo in 30th May. from the FIFA website.

    ReplyDelete
  17. As Ed said, Egypt are now safe, provided they win both matches.

    ReplyDelete
  18. till now , there is no official reports from FIFA that there is special FIFA ranking in 9 June for CAF.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Egypt will cancel DR Congo friendly, FIFA member Hany Abo Rida said that win against Tanzania is sufficient to ensure 1st pot and friendlies will not be calculated in 9 June CAF ranking, is it true?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't know what FIFA invents for special rules about the CAF-ranking. They invented the CAF-ranking itself already, so who knows what's next.

      Using the normal rules to calculate a ranking:
      if Egypt does not play the friendly against Congo DR, and both Tunisia and Egypt win their qualifier then both end at 643 points in the CAF-ranking.
      In my post of April 30th above I said that Egypt had the advantage in that case. In the meantime other matches have been inserted and that has caused a shift in momentum: Tunisia now has the advantage 642,8 over Egypt 642,6.

      Delete
  20. And this is with the predicted draw at Kenya-Tanzania on May 29th. If Tanzania loses, Egypt will have even fewer points.

    ReplyDelete
  21. You said that Kenya vs Tanzania draw will give Egypt the advantage. 643.2 vs 642.8(Tunisia)

    Whats make it change to become Tunisia favourable??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In particular the inserted friendly Azerbaijan-Andorra on May 26th. Azerbaijan is ranked in the neighborhood of Tanzania. And the predicted win for Azerbaijan causes Tanzania to be one spot lower when they play against Egypt (compared to the situation on April 30th), which results in less matchpoints for an Egyptian win.
      As you can see, everything matters when the margins are this small.
      That's why I almost always add to my predictions "with the current schedule of matches".

      Delete
  22. previous World Cup results will be into consideration for seeding,this means that Nigeria will be into seeded teams.God Bless Super Eagles of Nigeria!

    ReplyDelete
  23. Final snapshot with regard to the elo predicted points in the extra June 2016 ranking (assuming an issue-date of June 9th) with the seeding pots for round 3 of African WC qualifying based on the current schedule of matches:

    1 (1) Algeria 785
    2 (2) Cote d'Ivoire 736
    3 (3) Ghana 714
    4 (4) Senegal 676
    5 (6) Tunisia 642,8
    --
    6 (5) Egypt 641
    7 (8) Congo DR 599
    8 (7) Cape Verde Islands 594
    9 (10) Guinea 571
    10 (13) Morocco 568
    --
    11 (11) Mali 565
    12 (12) Cameroon 555
    13 (14) Nigeria 554
    14 (9) Congo 538
    15 (15) South Africa 530
    --
    16 (16) Uganda 518
    17 (17) Burkina Faso 498
    18 (18) Zambia 453
    19 (19) Gabon 390
    20 (20) Libya 294

    Unbelievable! The one time that Egypt really needs to play a friendly which carries an adequate amount of matchpoints, they cancel it.
    Now they are completely dependent on the outcome of the Kenya-Tanzania friendly, where Tanzania needs to win for Egypt to be a pot 1 seed (with 649 pts). Even a draw is not enough, then Egypt has 642,6 pts. Elo in the meantime predicts a Kenyan win in that friendly.
    Morocco climbs a pot with two wins in the Congo-friendly and the qualifier against Libya (played in Tunis), at the expense of Congo.

    The current elo predictions for scheduled matches with African teams involved:
    2016-05-25 COD - ROU; Friendly; 2
    2016-05-27 KEN - SDN; Friendly; 1
    2016-05-27 MAR - CGO; Friendly; 1
    2016-05-27 NGA - MLI; Friendly; X
    2016-05-27 TOG - ZAM; Friendly; X
    2016-05-28 BOT - MWI; Friendly; X
    2016-05-28 GAB - MTN; Friendly; 1
    2016-05-28 GHA - GUI; Friendly; X
    2016-05-28 RWA - SEN; Friendly; 2
    2016-05-29 KEN - TAN; Friendly; 1
    2016-05-30 FRA - CMR; Friendly; 1
    2016-05-30 GAM - ZAM; Friendly; 2
    2016-05-31 LUX - NGA; Friendly; 2
    2016-05-31 ZIM - UGA; Friendly; X
    2016-06-02 UZB - EQG; Friendly; 1
    2016-06-03 DJI - TUN; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-03 BEN - EQG; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-06-03 LBY - MAR; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-03 STP - CPV; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-03 SLE - SDN; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-06-04 SSD - MLI; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-04 BOT - UGA; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-04 GNB - ZAM; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-04 TAN - EGY; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-04 RWA - MOZ; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-06-04 SEY - ALG; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-04 BDI - SEN; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-04 NAM - NIG; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-06-04 GAM - RSA; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-04 MTN - CMR; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-04 CIV - GAB; Friendly; 1
    2016-06-05 LBR - TOG; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-06-05 CTA - ANG; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-06-05 MAD - COD; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-05 COM - BFA; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-05 KEN - CGO; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-06-05 MRI - GHA; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-05 LES - ETH; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-06-05 SWZ - GUI; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-06-05 ZIM - MWI; Continental qualifier; 1

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LOL. You gotta love Egypt! I just hope Hossam is OK and doesn't take this too much to his heart. :)

      Delete
    2. EFA cancell the game upon request from Mr.Hany Abo Rida, FIFA excutive commite member, he told them that friendlies will not be included in the special ranking which will be released on 8-10 June, just for Africa ,

      So what can i do when he confirm this news ?

      Delete
  24. Azerbaijan-Andorra ends in drawn 0-0. What other results that keep TANZANIA in 135th , provided that Tanzania loses in KENYA on Sunday?

    ReplyDelete
  25. If Lithuania vs Estonia cancelled,how many points will Lithuania had in 2nd June ranking?

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hossam,

    the Azerbaijan draw against Andorra is in sofar good for Egypt that now with a Tanzanian draw against Kenya Egypt once again will end above Tunisia.

    The matches with teams in the neighborhood of Tanzania's ranking and played this weekend, are:
    Slovakia-Georgia (today) elo: loss for Georgia
    Kenya-Sudan (today) elo: loss for Sudan
    Lithuania-Estonia (May 29th) elo: draw
    Macedonia-Azerbaijan (May 29th) elo: draw

    Alas, if these last two matches will be lost by Lithuania and Azerbaijan or if one or both of these matches will be cancelled then that still is not enough to lift Tanzania in the June ranking to a spot where Egypt can get enough matchpoints from their qualifier to overtake Tunisia, provided Tanzania loses against Kenya.

    All this of course under the presumption that the extra June ranking is calculated under normal rules, so including friendlies. If your Executive Committee member has inside knowledge about how the special CAF ranking seeding will be calculated, then all this is 'much ado about nothing'. But then I don't see why the proper June ranking itself is not used to seed. This whole process is so counter-intuitive. It mocks all the common established groundrules about using a FIFA-ranking for seeding in a World Cup qualifying process. It would be laughable if not so much could depend on it, with this harsh African qualifying where a spot in seeding pot 1 could very well be the difference between qualifying for Russia or not.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Kenya vs Sudan postponed to Tuesday.
    So what are the results that keep Tanzania in 135th , provided loss against Kenya??

    ReplyDelete
  28. Doesn't matter. If Tanzania loses against Kenya, there are no results in the scheduled matches that will keep Tanzania high enough in the June ranking so that Egypt can collect sufficient matchpoints to overtake Tunisia.
    Tanzania must at least draw, that's Egypts only chance, with normal calculation rules applied.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Now Egypt does not need other results , provided that Tanzania draw with Kenya??
    I think we need Georgia loss , lithuania draw or loss, Azerbijan loss or draw

    ReplyDelete
  30. Georgia 1- Slovakia 3
    Good result ,,,

    ReplyDelete
  31. 1-1 tanzania and kenya !

    Ed as you said before that may 29 th is the last day that will be counted for the FIFA ranking on june 2nd. may you please post tanznaia ranking now ? it looks like Egypt will just need a win to secure POT 1 because tanzania will be above 135 (hopefully)

    ReplyDelete
  32. Tanzania got a draw against Kenya and Lithuania won against Estonia. Could you probably tell us what does that mean for Egypt and Tunisia race?

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hey , what is the situation now after Kenya Tanzania draw ?

    ReplyDelete
  34. Also, i m not sure why it is mentioned here that only up to 29 May counts to the next FIFA ranking. The official FIFA prognosis tool mentions the matches up to Wednesday June 1 there. For example Spain/Korea match. Could you please clarify? Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The FIFA prognosis tool is not reliable. The deadline for the June ranking is today, if they follow their own rules (used for some years now) in which the deadline for a ranking published on Thursday, is the previous Sunday.

      Delete
  35. hi guys,

    bad news I guess. Tanzania got the required draw, but Lithuania overtakes Tanzania with their win over Estonia (a draw was predicted) so it will be spot 136 for Tanzania in the June ranking (at least if Azerbaijan does not win against Macedonia this afternoon, otherwise it will be spot 137) and that's not enough. With an Egyptian qualifier-win Egypt ends at 642,6 points in the extra ranking, so 0,2 points behind Tunisia when Tunisia, as expected, wins against Djibouti.
    All of course based on normal calculation rules. You shouldn't have cancelled the Congo DR-friendly or just hope that a different ranking calculation method will be used.

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  36. Thanks Ed for your quick reply. Is that taking into consideration GUYANA-CURACAO match? Because win for Guyana puts it above Tanzania while draw/loss puts them below? I also assume that matches up to Wednesday are included in the Thursday ranking.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I just saw your reply, never mind, thanks :)

      Delete
  37. Hi Ed,

    May you please write the 8 teams who where below tanzania and exceeded it in the ranking ? I am saying 8 because tanzania was 129 and became 136 so 7 teams but knowing that tanzania exceeded georgia after georgia's loss so it means that 8 teams who were below tanzania exceed it and made it in the 136th spot

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Palestine
      Bahrain
      Guyana
      Swaziland
      Namibia
      Madagascar
      Lithuania
      Newzeland
      are those the teams who exceeded Tanzania in the points for june 2nd ranking ?

      by the way if Azerbaijan didn't win Macedonia so both of them will be below 261(Tanzania points ) ?

      Delete
    2. Switch Vietnam for New Zealand and you got the 8. Lithuania was just one too many.

      Yes, Azerbaijan has 252 pts on 138 and Macedonia has 250 pts on 139 in the June ranking.

      Delete
  38. If the special ranking released in 10th June, Egypt needs win against TAnzania to insure 1st pot, as TUNISIA VS CAP VERDE game in 9th June 2012 will be deleted from ranking.

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    1. As long as it wasn't clear from FIFA from the beginning , if the ranking announcement date is not decided yet and it will affect the ranking by this big difference for just 0.2 points . Egyptian football association should take an action against that and there should be different calculation process!!

      Delete
  39. Ed - do you think it makes a difference whether the report would be generated the 8, 9 or 10th of June? Given what Hossam said about a game in June 9, 2012.

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  40. Well, I assume that, whatever the publishing date of the extra ranking, the deadline for the included matches will be Sunday June 5th.
    And then it really does make a difference on what day the extra ranking is published. Assuming wins for both Egypt and Tunisia the seeding for June 8th is the same as for June 9th: Egypt is 6th. But published on June 10th, as Hossam already indicated, Egypt is 5th (Tunisia drops to 637 pts then).
    So all kinds of uncertainty here. Typical FIFA: transparency and fairness nowhere to be found in this process. I'm just amazed they seem to pull this off without any protests from Africa's participating teams.

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  41. The extraordinary ranking is not fair by anymeans. Shame on FIFA that made it. FIFA said that details will be send to national assosiations later on , and didnt send any details till know. 0.2 points seed team from another ,, what a joke !!!!

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    Replies
    1. Also we have to thank your efforts Mr Hossam

      Delete
  42. Per my simple calculations, if Egypt and Tunisia win their respective games and Senegal lost to Burundi. Seeding will be all dependent on the date of published ranking.

    If it is published on June 8: Tunisia and Egypt are seeded, Senegal is in Pot 2.
    If it is published on June 9: Senegal and Tunisia are seeded, Egypt is in Pot 2.
    If it is published on June 10: Senegal and Egypt are seeded, Tunisia is in Pot 2.

    I think the only reason, FIFA is silent about this extra ranking till now is that they hope either Egypt or Tunisia would stumble in their games and it won't matter which day they choose for the extra ranking publication. If Senegal wins or draws, FIFA might select to force both Egypt and Tunisia to be within the same group as being undifferentiated seeds 1 and 2 or they may decide to go with June 2 ranking. I don't think they have officially announced a special ranking for CAF seeding.

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  43. Ed, 2nd June ranking released yesterday , all the 4 years results are deleted , current points are 0 for all teams, whats the reasons??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just checked my June ranking to theirs, published last Thursday: exactly the same on FIFA points and positions. Why the timeframe averages are not shown ? I don't know. Maybe their system is a bit 'upset' because of the special ranking coming up :)
      And still no specific info on that one whatsoever. Transparency ? 'not in my vocabulary'.

      Delete
    2. Seems the system got over the special ranking :)

      Delete
  44. Now Egypt win 2/0 and Tunisia 3/0 , what's the status now ?

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  45. Hi Ed, so Senegal, Egypt and Tunisia all won. Could you please tell us who would be in pot 1 for each of the days June 8, 9 and 10?

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    1. Après vérification auprès de la fédération Algérienne du football monsieur Mohammed Raouraoua membre du comité èxècutif de la Caf et le buteur indiquons que La FIFA publiera le jeudi 9 juin prochain, une édition spéciale du classement pour l’Afrique, laquelle servira pour la confection des chapeaux du tirage au sort des poules des qualifications de la Coupe du Monde, Russie 2018, qui se déroulera au Caire le 24 juin 2016.

      Delete
  48. La FIFA publiera le 9 juin prochain, une édition spéciale du classement pour l’Afrique, laquelle servira pour la confection des chapeaux du tirage au sort des poules des qualifications de la Coupe du Monde, Russie 2018 suivant communiquer de la faf football algerienne

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  49. So all went according to elo predictions. Then my conclusions from 3 days back remain valid: published on June 8th or 9th Tunisia will be in pot 1; published on June 10th Egypt will be in pot 1.
    If it is June 9th as FAF reports and they will use the normal ranking calculation, then Egypt should protest in the strongest words possible. It is unprecedented in FIFA's use of rankings as a seeding instrument and it must be a bought decision. And only Tunisia had something to gain in this whole charade. I would be disgusted if it turns out this way.

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    1. It is not disgusting Egypt deserve where to be, they did not make it to the past 4 african cups and expect to be in pot 1.

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  50. I think my country Tunisia will make it to pot 1. Tunisia deserves it, while Egypt do not. Tunisia beat Egypt in the last 3 games. So to be fair I think they will make Tunisia and Senegal to qualify since they both finished ahead o Egypt in the African cup of nations 2015 qualifier. SO Ed, do you think Tunisia will finish in pot 1, Egyptians why do you hate Tunisians so much.

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  51. First of all I'm Dutch so I think I could be called quite objective in this matter. I have no special sympathies for any of the countries involved. I'm just fed up with FIFA's shady acts.

    FIFA has so far in seeding-matters for World Cup qualifying (and the finals) almost always used the latest FIFA ranking available at the time of the draw (sometimes they have used not the latest ranking but an earlier one).

    This is the first time they have thought 'hey, let's make a special new ranking for Africa, just to include the latest AFCON-qualifiers'.
    What was/is the objection to use the June ranking ? I don't see it. There must have been some other 'incentives' for them to come to this decision.

    In the June ranking Egypt is CAF-5th on merit, even while playing some non-obligatory friendlies in February that almost cost them that fifth place. So I think they deserved it.

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    1. Ed - you're now officially part of this blog.

      See this KingFut article. Just look for "shady" :)

      Delete
    2. Yeah, it seems so. I hope I haven't put any words in 'your mouth' that you wouldn't have said, Edgar.
      Btw I approve of most parts of this article, which objectively tries to sum up the strange events of the past weeks. It is indeed "the least Egypt can do" about this whole mess.
      I really am fed up with the way FIFA 'invents' and then not 'introduces' this exception of their normal seeding mechanisms. Even if it is not corrupt, they surely make it look like it with these kind of acts.

      Delete
  52. Ed,

    there are many sources saying all the friendly matches in may won't be considered in the so called "special" ranking.

    based on that information, EFA cancelled their friendly match with Congo DR.

    I'd like to know, if that's correct and the friendly matches were taken out of the equation, and considering the ranking to be issued on 9th of June, who would be in pot #1 EGY or TUN ?

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  53. Ahmed Samy,
    Ed and everyone else don't have information about the special ranking ..

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  54. The certainty that Mr. Abureida speaks with suggests that he knows something we all don't because if Egypt ends 6th, he'll lose his credibility that he relies on to win the EFA elections. wishful thinking! :)

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  55. if the rankings are posted on June 10, that proves that Egypt bribed FIFA. I believe Egypt bribed FIFA in many occasions especially in the African cup of nation. Most of the time they did not deserve it but the re gives read card to the other team. Algeria taught them a lesson, that they shall never try to cheat because they will get in trouble. Lets get real here Tunisia will be better in pot 1 than Egypt. I am hoping Tunisia and Egypt will be in pot 1. However the results will probable be posted in June 9 so Tunisia will be in pot 1 with Senegal.

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    Replies
    1. Not really, Egypt were seeded in pot 1 in Fifa's official June ranking. So, I think there is no need to say that Egypt bribed anyone. And regarding the 2010 World Cup Qualifiers, the away goal rule should have been used and Egypt would've qualified.

      Delete
    2. It's funny Kareem accuses Egyptians of "hating Tunisians" in one post (even though body here said such a thing), and in the next he's the one demonstrating vile hate... accusing them of bribing referees and bragging about some kind of "lesson" Algeria taught Egypt (not sure what that was). Talk about hate...

      Delete
  56. This link: http://www.weglobalfootball.com/2016/04/08/fifa-will-create-special-june-rankings-caf-world-cup-pots/ has a guess that it was Tunisia who requested FIFA to do this special ranking :) So, who's bribing? ;) Anyhow, according to them, unless the ranking is on the 7th, it's gonna be Egypt in pot 1...

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  57. Ed - from what i see here, it seems that your calculations are the most credible, thanks for all the efforts. Assuming normal process (friendlies included, etc which is likely to be), are you sure from your conclusions 8 june or 9 june means Tunisia but 10 June means Egypt?

    Because there is a different table here: http://www.weglobalfootball.com/2016/04/08/fifa-will-create-special-june-rankings-caf-world-cup-pots/

    6/2 – Egypt
    6/3 – Egypt
    6/4 – Cape Verde
    6/5 – Cape Verde
    6/6 – Cape Verde
    6/7 – Tunisia
    6/8 – Egypt
    6/9 – Egypt
    6/10 – Egypt
    6/11 – Tunisia
    6/12 – Egypt
    6/13 – Tunisia
    6/14 & After – Egypt

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    Replies
    1. Mohamed, look at the date of this link: it is written on April 8th. So it gives a prediction based on the scheduled matches AT THAT MOMENT. In the meantime matches have been added, cancelled etc etc. And you have seen what an 'innocent' inserted match like the friendly Kenya-Tanzania could have for impact on the seeding of the African top teams.
      Remember: these kind of calculations/predictions are always based on the scheduled matches of that moment.
      So to answer your question: yes, I'm sure.

      And thanks for your kind words :)

      Delete
  58. Look at this:
    http://www.ftf.org.tn/fr/qualifications-pour-la-coupe-du-monde-russie-2018-tirage-au-sort-du-troisieme-tour/

    Translated:

    In a letter sent this morning to all African federations, FIFA confirmed that the draw for the third round of the preliminary competition under section will be held in Cairo June 24, 2016.

    She also noted that a special edition of the FIFA Coca Cola ranking for Africa be published between June 8 and June 10, 2016, which will be used for making hats of said draw.

    Which is wow... ridiculous given the seeds depend on the date of publication... They should have just gone with the normal ranking. If Egypt and Senegal are not seeded it will be a travesty.

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  61. Ed, would you mind check if the ranking is released tomorrow or after (Jun 6 or 7), what would it be? Mr. Abureida just said that he told FIFA there's no reason to wait for June 8. He also said he's sure Egypt is gonna be 5th. Maybe in this special ranking they will not remove any old games and just add the new games, making it really really special :)

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  62. I think it'll be released on Thursday 9 June, like previous rankings

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  63. Well, of course it differs with the publishing date (and no funny rules regarding the calculation):
    June 6th: 5th CPV, 6th EGY, 7th TUN
    June 7th: 5th TUN, 6th CPV, 7th EGY
    June 8th: 5th TUN, 6th EGY, 7th COD
    June 9th: 5th TUN, 6th EGY, 7th COD
    June 10th: 5th EGY, 6th TUN, 7th COD
    June 11th: 5th TUN, 6th EGY, 7th CPV

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  64. Thanks Ed! We'll wait and see then :)

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  65. And here's a new development. An Egyptian website contacted FIFA media office to ask about when is that special ranking and the reply came that there's no special ranking in June. This is becoming an interesting matter :)

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    Replies
    1. And the story got updated that the special ranking is on and will be released on June 8. Fingers crossed! I only care because I want Egypt to avoid Algeria :)

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  66. FiFa confirmed to yallakora.com (an Egyptian) website that the special ranking for the African teams will be released on June 8th . It's definetly clear that the criteria won't be the same as usual . Because publishing on June 8 th means ignoring the matches in the African qualifiers at June 5 . For sure that doesn't make sense because the special ranking purpose is to include the Caf qualifiers games. Based on that , I am expecting that the special ranking will be based on June 2nd ranking time cycle and just adding the points of the African qualifiers games . Ed can I ask you a question :
    If the time frame for the special ranking is assumed as follows will egypt be seeded in pot 1?
    2 june 2012-2 June 2013
    3 June 2013-2 June 2014
    3 June 2014- 2 June 2015
    3 June 2015- 5 June 2016

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    Replies
    1. hi guys,

      new developments indeed. Glad to hear this info, though.

      Assuming timeframes according to the official June ranking with an extended first timeframe to include the matches up until yesterday (June 5th) this will be the CAF-seeding (the publishing date doesn't matter anymore then):

      pot 1: Algeria, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal, Egypt
      pot 2: Tunisia, Cape Verde, Congo DR, Cameroon, Guinea
      pot 3: Mali, Nigeria, Morocco, Congo, South Africa
      pot 4: Uganda, Burkina Faso, Zambia, Gabon, Libya

      So, much ado about nothing, because it's the same as if the official June ranking was used, pfffff.

      Delete
  67. hi, this is Karim Sa'eed, Yallakora.com Editor in Chief .. for the criteria of the special edition, that was the fifa response...

    Good afternoon Karim,

    The Rankings which will be published on the 8th will be exclusively for Africa and will take into account the matches played over the last few days.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Karim
      Did the FIFA mentioned the special edition will be conducted as usual on June 8 or the points from African qualifications will be added on the June second ordinary edition without cancelling decreasing the points of the matches from 2 to 8 June on 2012 ,2013,2014,2015

      Delete
    2. Hi Mohammed,

      All that i can tell you for now wizout going into much details, that 99.9% Egypt will be 5th, and that means we will be on the First POT...

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    3. This 99.9% based on what? Mr. Abureida?

      Delete
    4. sorry but I can't tell u my sources...

      Delete
    5. No problem! Thanks Mr. Karim. Indeed, I've been following your news and needed the assurance :)

      Delete
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  69. A Tunisian website has confirmed that FIFA rankings will be released on June the 9, that Egyptian site is clearly lying. So therefore Tunisia will be in pot 1

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    1. Check the email sent from FIFA yourself: http://m.yallakora.com/ar/News/302091/%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%AC%D8%AF%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B5%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%B5-%D8%A8%D8%A3%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%85-8-%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%88/396

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    2. naoise king is not even a real person, and plus if the fifa rankings are issued on June 8 that still makes Tunisia 1st in pot 1. I hope it just get settles so they put Tunisia and Egypt in the same group. I think Tunisia will qualify to the world cup because they have really good young players, Egypt have 2 goods players but they cant change a game when they struggled against Tanzania

      Delete
    3. Right! She's not a real person. Only Google search thinks that she is :)

      Delete
  70. Why on earth should they be put in the same group? That makes no sense. If Egypt rightfully earned its Pot 1 status, then it earned its Pot 1 status. Likewise Tunisia. The draw should be completely random regardless.

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  71. To be honest Tunisia rightfully earned it's pot 1, I do not even know why this thread is going for too long. Tunisia deserves to be in pit 1 and they are a better team for pot 1.

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  72. Congrats tunisia

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  73. Congrats Egypt

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  74. Congrats Tunisia

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    Replies
    1. The special ranking was just made to add the caf qualifiers games . The only fair way is just adding the results to the last released ranking ! That's because the release day won't affect the seeding . Based on old calculations . If the announcement is 8th of June so it's not including June 5 th results . If 9 so Tunisia , if 10 th so egypt ! How come that Tunisia deserves ?!!!

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    2. Tunisia deserves it because they play better than Egypt and they beat Egypt in their last 2 games. On top of That Tunisia played against harder teams. While Egypt wins Nigeria because of the refs mistakes

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    3. The FIFA ranking indicates the performance of the teams in the last 4 years not just in the last two games or ref mistakes or any arguments. Based on your assumption , at least Cameron should be above Tunisia as they destroyed you 4-1 : ) . But you are now saying that Tunisia simply deserves to be above Cameroon

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    4. So, the wait is over. Tunisia is 5th, Cape Verde is 6th, and Egypt is 7th. Does this make sense Ed? Thanks!

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  75. Here are the special ranking with points. Does this make sense Ed?

    http://twitter.com/King_Fut/status/740573267224854528/photo/1

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  76. Well, FIFA has used the normal calculation rules and a publishing date of June 7th. And as I predicted earlier (post last Monday) that means that Tunisia is 5th, Cape Verde is 6th and Egypt is 7th. So far it makes perfect sense.

    One consolation for Egypt. Because FIFA has used a publishing date of June 7th even a win in the cancelled friendly against Congo DR would not have been enough for Egypt to get to 5th spot in the CAF ranking (TUN 644.4, EGY 643.7).

    Even so, this is truly unfair. I hope that Egypt gets drawn in the same group as Tunisia and then we'll see who earns the bragging rights (reading some of the posts above was really no pleasure, it's only football you know).

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    Replies
    1. Thanks, Ed.

      As a number of neutral, non-Egyptian football blogs like this one, We Global, etc. have suggested, this is blatant corruption from FIFA. We Global may have said it best, calling today's rankings, "arbitrary, offensive, bogus."

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    2. You could call it consolation for Egypt, but I don't really think so. To me, publishing on June 7 (despite announcing earlier that it would be June 8-10) suggests that Egypt was never going to be given a chance. They were always going to find a publishing date that ensured Egypt wouldn't get to 5th, even if they had played and won a friendly.

      Delete
    3. I've been following events with interest and, on the surface, it seems that someone is determined to either get Tunisia top-seeded and/or get Egypt dropped a pot.
      Does anyone know who is behind this and why this apparent agenda exists?
      Also, I note that on the ELO ratings (much more reliable in my opinion), Egypt are in the Top 5, and Tunisia would be in Pot 3 if those rankings were deployed!

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    4. The only consolation I would hope for now is to get Tunisia in our group!

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    5. It does seem that way, everything has been arranged perfectly. If they'd released the rankings on the 6th, Cape Verde would have been in Pot 1. If they'd released on the 8th or 9th, Egypt could have passed Tunisia by winning a friendly. If they'd released on the 10th, Egypt didn't need a friendly. Of all the "possible" days, only on the 7th was Tunisia guaranteed Pot 1 as long as they beat Djibouti, no matter what Egypt did.

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  77. Hi Ed, it seems that FIFA is releasing new special ranking on June 21. Copy of the FIFA letter is here: http://www.yallakora.com//ar/News/302663/%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A7-%D9%8A%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B9%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B5%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AB%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A9-/400#Rotator

    Could you please help clarifying what would be the case for pot 1 in case this release happened. (Even better what would be the state for releases between now and 24 the date of the draw)?

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  78. Unbelievable: another ridiculous decision from FIFA. They know they are wrong but they can't revert their first ridiculous decision without completely making a fool of themselves, so now they repair it in a laughable way.
    At least Egypt is back where they belong, according to the June ranking. Guinea and Congo are still in pot 3 and Morocco and Cameroon in pot 2. Depending on the publishing date also Cape Verde could drop to pot 3 in favor of Nigeria.

    Assuming that matches until June 6th are included (that was the last date that a team participating in the draw played a match) the pot-distribution per publishing date is as follows (in parentheses the position according to the June ranking):

    June 16th - 20th
    pot 1: Algeria (1), Cote d'Ivoire (2), Ghana (3), Senegal (4), Egypt (5)
    pot 2: Tunisia (6), Congo DR (8), Morocco (13), Nigeria (14), Cameroon (12)
    pot 3: Cape Verde (7), Guinea (10), Mali (11), South Africa (15), Congo (9)
    pot 4: Uganda (16), Burkina Faso (17), Zambia (18), Gabon (19), Libya (20)

    June 21st - 24th
    pot 1: Algeria (1), Cote d'Ivoire (2), Ghana (3), Senegal (4), Egypt (5)
    pot 2: Tunisia (6), Congo DR (8), Morocco (13), Cameroon (12), Cape Verde (7)
    pot 3: Nigeria (14), Guinea (10), Mali (11), South Africa (15), Congo (9)
    pot 4: Uganda (16), Burkina Faso (17), Zambia (18), Gabon (19), Libya (20)

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  79. Thanks Ed , wish to see Egypt with Congo , Guinea and Uganda :D

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  80. For the first time ever, Egypt complains to FIFA and they accept :) I hope none of the Euro/Copa games would affect the ranking!

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  81. As long as the involved African teams don't play a yet unscheduled friendly this weekend, their FIFA points in the new extra ranking and thus their position in the CAF-order remains fixed. So no worries about that !

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  82. Thanks Ed ,, thank you very much.

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    1. Egypt qualified to WC 1990 by the legendary Egyptian player Hossam Hassan's Goal. After 28 years a new Hossam Hassan arrived and fought to keep the Egyptian team rights in being seeded in pot 1. Thanks Hossam and Ed for you valuable help for Egypt :) Congrats
      Egypt!

      Delete
  83. And the mess continues. FIFA decided to cancel the latest decision and go back to June 7 ranking. So, Egypt is back to pot 2. Complete mess :(

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  84. I'm almost lost for words...

    This is downright criminal and corrupt to the bone. What a complete FIFA f*ck-up ! There goes their last credibility down the drain....

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  85. Lucky Tunisians! They got the easiest of the groups. It seems 2018 wants them. Good luck anyway :) We got Ghana, revenge time :)

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