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Friday, April 15, 2016

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding sims by team

10000 simulations for each team and set of results.

Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal - are safe in Pot 1 no matter what happens.
Burkina Faso, Zambia, Gabon, Libya - locked in Pot 4.

A couple of very important matches:


04 June Tanzania vs. Egypt

The Pharaos need to win to be in Pot 1. Any other result will hand the last pot 1 spot to Tunisia (easy match vs. Djibouti)

03 June Swaziland vs. Guinea

With a win, the guest will be safe in Pot 2. A draw drops their chances to 15% while a loss will see them drop to Pot 3.

30 May Morocco - Congo

Both teams involved in this friendly are Pot 2 contenders. Congo will be safe in Pot 2 with 3 points here and another win vs. Kenya, while Morocco will be 86% in Pot 2 with a win in this match and another vs. Libya.

30 May France - Cameroon

With a win in Nantes and another vs. Kenya, Cameroon will be safe in Pot 2. A loss against Les Bleus will see their Pot 2 chances drop to 5.7%.

04 June Botswana - Uganda

A very simply equation for the Uganda Cranes. Win = Pot 3. Any other result = Pot 4.



Tunisia

Defeat vs. Djibouti - Pot 1: 45.9%; Pot 2: 54.1%;
Draw vs. Djibouti - Pot 1: 56.5%; Pot 2: 43.5%;
Win vs. Djibouti - Pot 1: 57.3%; Pot 2: 42.7%;


Egypt

Defeat vs. Tanzania - Pot 2: 100%;
Draw vs. Tanzania - Pot 2: 100%;
Win vs. Tanzania - Pot 1: 100%;

Congo DR

Pretty much locked in Pot 2. Even if they lose both their matches (Romania and Madagascar), they're 96.5% in Pot 2.

Cape Verde Islands

Defeat vs. Sao Tome e Principe - Pot 2: 10.5%; Pot 3: 89.5%;
Draw vs. Sao Tome e Principe - Pot 2: 86.3%; Pot 3: 13.7%;
Win vs. Sao Tome e Principe - Pot 2: 100%;

Mali

Defeat vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 19.9%; Pot 3: 80.1%;
Draw vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 73.5%; Pot 3: 26.5%;
Win vs. South Sudan - Pot 2: 97.9%; Pot 3: 2.1%;

Guinea

Defeat vs. Swaziland - Pot 3: 100%;
Draw vs. Swaziland - Pot 2: 15.7%; Pot 3: 84.3%;
Win vs. Swaziland - Pot 2: 100%;

Nigeria


No matches for the Super Eagles.

Pot 2: 42.44%; Pot 3: 57.56%;

Congo

Defeat vs. Morocco; Defeat vs. Kenya - Pot 3: 84.7%; Pot 4: 15.3%;
Defeat vs. Morocco; Draw vs. Kenya - Pot 3: 100%;
Defeat vs. Morocco; Win vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 66.9%; Pot 3: 33.1%;
Draw vs. Morocco; Defeat or Draw vs. Kenya - Pot 3: 100%;
Draw vs. Morocco; Win vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 84.9%; Pot 3: 15.1%;
Win vs. Morocco; Defeat vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 2.2%; Pot 3: 97.8%;
Win vs. Morocco; Draw vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 81.7%; Pot 3: 18.3%;
Win vs. Morocco; Win vs. Kenya - Pot 2: 100%;

Morocco

Defeat vs. Congo; Defeat vs. Libya - Pot 3: 79.6%; Pot 4: 20.4%;
Defeat vs. Congo; Draw vs. Libya - Pot 3: 80.4%; Pot 4: 19.6%;
Defeat vs. Congo; Win vs. Libya - Pot 3: 100%;
Draw vs. Congo; Defeat vs. Libya - Pot 3: 87.7%; Pot 4: 12.3%;
Draw vs. Congo; Draw vs. Libya - Pot 3: 100%;
Draw vs. Congo; Win vs. Libya - Pot 2: 0.9%; Pot 3: 99.1%;
Win vs. Congo; Defeat or Draw vs. Libya - Pot 3: 100%;
Win vs. Congo; Win vs. Libya - Pot 2: 86%; Pot 3: 14%;

Cameroon

Defeat vs. France; Defeat vs. Mauritania - Pot 3: 88.4%; Pot 4: 11.6%;
Defeat vs. France; Draw vs. Mauritania - Pot 3: 100%;
Defeat vs. France; Win vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 5.7%; Pot 3: 94.3%;
Draw vs. France; Defeat or Draw vs. Mauritania - Pot 3: 100%;
Draw vs. France; Win vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 69.4%; Pot 3: 30.6%;
Win vs. France; Defeat vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 5%; Pot 3: 95%;
Win vs. France; Draw vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 74.1%; Pot 3: 25.9%;
Win vs. France; Win vs. Mauritania - Pot 2: 100%;

South Africa

Defeat vs. Gambia - Pot 3: 60.1%; Pot 4: 39.9%;
Draw vs. Gambia - Pot 3: 69.3%; Pot 4: 30.7%;
Win vs. Gambia - Pot 3: 84.5%; Pot 4: 15.5%;

Uganda

Defeat vs. Botswana - Pot 4: 100%;
Draw vs. Botswana - Pot 4: 100%;
Win vs. Botswana - Pot 3: 100%;

8 comments:

  1. Nice analysis. But all is based on announcing a different date for the ranking of the CAF teams after June 2nd. FIFA can never change the fixed dates of the ranking simply like this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The official ranking date of June 2nd for the June ranking is not changed.
      It is announced that an EXTRA ranking is issued between June 8th and 10th with the only purpose to seed the African countries for their WC Qualifying third round.

      Delete
  2. Btw Egypt has scheduled a friendly against Malawi May 30th. They really, really don't wanna be in pot 1 for the draw, sigh.

    ReplyDelete
  3. How you see egypt chances in pot 1 after announcing friendly match against Malawi may 30 ?

    ReplyDelete
  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Well, assuming
    - the current schedule of matches,
    - the extra ranking for the CAF-seeding is published June 9th,
    - the matchpoints for the matches played between May 30th and June 6th will be calculated with the official June ranking of June 2nd:
    If Egypt wins the Malawi-friendly and their Tanzania-qualifier and Tunisia wins their Djibouti-qualifier, Egypt will be CAF-6th with 636 pts and Tunisia CAF-5th with 643 pts.
    Without the friendly Egypt would have 646 pts, be CAF-5th and be master of their own fate regarding a spot in pot 1.

    ReplyDelete
  7. A snapshot with regard to the elo predicted points in the extra June 2016 ranking (assuming an issue-date of June 9th) with the seeding pots for round 3 of African WC qualifying based on the current schedule of matches:

    1 (1) Algeria 785
    2 (2) Cote d'Ivoire 736
    3 (3) Ghana 731
    4 (4) Senegal 675
    5 (6) Tunisia 643
    --
    6 (5) Egypt 636
    7 (8) Congo DR 599
    8 (7) Cape Verde Islands 594
    9 (10) Guinea 577
    10 (11) Mali 575
    --
    11 (14) Nigeria 562
    12 (12) Cameroon 557
    13 (13) Morocco 548
    14 (9) Congo 538
    15 (16) Uganda 533
    --
    16 (15) South Africa 530
    17 (17) Burkina Faso 498
    18 (18) Zambia 465
    19 (19) Gabon 391
    20 (20) Libya 319

    Mali and Congo would switch pots, Congo dropping heavily because of a predicted friendly loss to Morocco and qualifier draw against Kenya. Another switch in pots would be between Uganda and South Africa, while both are predicted to win their qualifier. The switch between Egypt and Tunisia is completely due to Egypt insisting on playing friendlies.

    ReplyDelete