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Friday, October 31, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (31 October 2014)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competiton/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

FIFA Ranking: November 2014 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 27 November.

Already added Serbia - Albania 3:0.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

FIFA Ranking: November 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the November 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: November 2014 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 27 November.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

43 - Serbia
43 - Bangladesh
31 - Cuba
26 - Ecuador
21 - Germany
15 - Cambodia
13 - Equatorial Guinea
13 - Burundi
12 - Swaziland
12 - Sao Tome e Principe

Friday, October 24, 2014

October 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the September 2014 FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent.


After Sierra Leone's drop of 25 places, the most popular opponent for the month of September were Wales (50), closely followed by Congo (47) and Antigua and Barbuda (37).

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (24 October 2014)

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.

Friday, October 17, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding: Oldest timeframe now closed

Next update: October 2018.

Assuming FIFA will again use the October 2017 ranking to determine the seeds, the 0.2 time frame (games played between 36 and 48 months ago relative to the release date) closed a couple of days ago.

It's not looking good for some of the big teams, but there's plenty of time to climb in the rankings.

FIFA Ranking: October 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 23 October.

Two matches left - both friendlies (although they are part of an important ASEAN competition - the AFF Suzuki Cup):

18/10 Cambodia - Myanmar
18/10 Laos - Timor Leste