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Friday, October 31, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (31 October 2014)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competiton/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.


Pot 1: Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Romania, Spain, Portugal, England, Czech Republic
Pot 2: Croatia, France, Switzerland, Ukraine, Iceland, Slovakia, Serbia, Northern Ireland, Austria
Pot 3: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Greece, Slovenia, Poland, Israel, Wales, Denmark, Sweden, Scotland
Pot 4: Republic of Ireland, Hungary, Finland, Albania, Turkey, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Norway, Armenia
Pot 5: FYR Macedonia, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Cyprus, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia
Pot 6: Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Malta, Faroe Islands, Andorra, San Marino

Germany and Netherlands were always in the first pot in all the simulations.

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Northern Ireland jump from 4th to 2nd pot.

Czech Republic replace Swizerland in Pot 1.
Iceland, Slovakia and Austria replace Bosnia-Herzegovina, Greece, Denmark and Sweden in Pot 2.
Slovenia and Poland replace Finland, Turkey and Bulgaria in Pot 3.
Norway replace FYR Macedonia in Pot 4.

Pot 6

99.87% - San Marino
98.21% - Andorra
96.92% - Faroe Islands
92.75% - Malta
89.31% - Liechtenstein
78.60% - Luxembourg
48.06% - Georgia
47.26% - Kazakhstan
22.16% - Belarus
13.75% - Azerbaijan
9.96% - Moldova
1.84% - Latvia
0.86% - FYR Macedonia
0.35% - Cyprus
0.09% - Lithuania
0.01% - Estonia

Pot 5

96.19% - Cyprus
86.52% - Latvia
84.69% - Moldova
81.95% - Azerbaijan
80.60% - Estonia
71.86% - Belarus
69.67% - Lithuania
51.05% - FYR Macedonia
49.55% - Kazakhstan
48.45% - Armenia
39.79% - Georgia
26.96% - Montenegro
22.96% - Bulgaria
20.37% - Luxembourg
11.46% - Norway
11.11% - Finland
10.61% - Liechtenstein
8.12% - Albania
7.23% - Malta
5.26% - Turkey
4.86% - Israel
3.08% - Hungary
3.00% - Faroe Islands
2.60% - Republic of Ireland
1.78% - Andorra
0.13% - San Marino
0.09% - Scotland
0.04% - Sweden
0.02% - Poland

Pot 4

88.56% - Turkey
84.45% - Norway
82.69% - Albania
60.23% - Bulgaria
53.68% - Finland
51.90% - Montenegro
44.00% - Armenia
42.73% - Hungary
41.53% - Republic of Ireland
40.53% - FYR Macedonia
33.06% - Scotland
32.55% - Wales
27.43% - Lithuania
27.37% - Israel
23.86% - Denmark
21.70% - Sweden
19.36% - Estonia
14.20% - Slovenia
13.26% - Serbia
12.69% - Northern Ireland
11.99% - Poland
11.38% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
11.16% - Latvia
10.41% - Georgia
9.36% - Austria
6.44% - Greece
5.88% - Belarus
5.35% - Moldova
4.30% - Azerbaijan
3.46% - Cyprus
3.19% - Kazakhstan
1.03% - Luxembourg
0.08% - Liechtenstein
0.08% - Faroe Islands
0.05% - Switzerland
0.02% - Malta
0.02% - Iceland
0.01% - Andorra
0.01% - Ukraine

Pot 3

69.90% - Sweden
66.72% - Greece
59.89% - Poland
58.29% - Denmark
57.21% - Slovenia
54.79% - Austria
54.11% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
49.99% - Scotland
44.91% - Northern Ireland
43.58% - Republic of Ireland
41.80% - Serbia
40.83% - Hungary
39.11% - Wales
31.08% - Israel
30.28% - Finland
28.47% - Iceland
17.85% - Montenegro
16.81% - Bulgaria
15.11% - Ukraine
14.45% - Slovakia
9.13% - Albania
8.82% - Switzerland
7.06% - Armenia
6.54% - FYR Macedonia
6.48% - Czech Republic
6.14% - Turkey
6.09% - Croatia
4.09% - Norway
2.74% - Lithuania
1.58% - England
1.56% - Portugal
1.49% - Georgia
1.38% - Romania
0.57% - France
0.47% - Latvia
0.41% - Spain
0.13% - Italy
0.10% - Belarus
0.03% - Estonia
0.01% - Belgium

Pot 2

81.85% - Slovakia
81.08% - France
73.30% - Switzerland
69.17% - Ukraine
52.35% - Iceland
44.36% - Croatia
41.45% - Czech Republic
35.10% - Serbia
33.94% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
33.52% - England
33.48% - Austria
31.02% - Northern Ireland
27.25% - Poland
26.82% - Greece
24.87% - Slovenia
24.81% - Israel
23.20% - Spain
22.74% - Portugal
21.87% - Wales
21.12% - Romania
17.69% - Denmark
17.07% - Italy
16.67% - Scotland
13.26% - Hungary
12.23% - Republic of Ireland
8.36% - Sweden
4.93% - Finland
3.28% - Montenegro
1.27% - Belgium
1.02% - FYR Macedonia
0.49% - Armenia
0.25% - Georgia
0.07% - Lithuania
0.06% - Albania
0.04% - Turkey
0.01% - Latvia

Pot 1

100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Germany
98.72% - Belgium
82.80% - Italy
77.50% - Romania
76.39% - Spain
75.70% - Portugal
64.90% - England
52.07% - Czech Republic
49.55% - Croatia
19.16% - Iceland
18.35% - France
17.83% - Switzerland
15.71% - Ukraine
11.88% - Israel
11.38% - Northern Ireland
9.84% - Serbia
6.47% - Wales
3.72% - Slovenia
3.70% - Slovakia
2.37% - Austria
0.85% - Poland
0.57% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.19% - Scotland
0.16% - Denmark
0.10% - Hungary
0.06% - Republic of Ireland
0.02% - Greece
0.01% - Montenegro

8 comments:

  1. I guess Croatia just misses the first pot by organizing that Argentina friendly on 12 November which will consist of our B team players because we have a huge qualifying game in Italy 4 days later. The coach didn't want to play the friendly, but Suker arranged it nevertheless. The incompetence of HNS never ceases to amaze me.

    Otherwise, Romania with 77% of reaching first pot? I guess the case of Norway 2011 will repeat itself.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I would like to see the pot probabilities breakdown if there are only 8 groups please.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry Amir - no time for this these days.

      Delete
    2. Ok, I'll appriciate if do that when you get the chance please.
      Thanks,
      Amir

      Delete
  3. That's a meteoric rise for Northern Ireland. I don't see it being sustained but Pot 3 is realistic

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Edgar, you have Wales as 6.47% for pot 1. Is that based on us winning all our games plus other results going our way or just our results?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, all fixtures on FIFA.com are simulated. It's a normal run. No fixed results.

      Delete
    2. If Wales win all their game they're 99.95% in Pot 1.

      Delete