Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (19 May 2017)
TwitterLinked In

Friday, December 19, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying: AFC draw dates and seeding leaked

As usual with AFC, it's very hard to get information regarding their competitions. In 7 years, they have replied only once to my e-mails.

However, the United Arab Emirates FA have posted the draw dates on their website. Use Google Translate if your Arabic grasp is lacking.

FIFA ranking: January 2015 preview and probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on January 8th, forced by the AFC Asian Cup kicking off a day later.

Only 16 matches - all friendlies. Of course, there's the return leg of the AFF Championship, but that's a friendly as far as FIFA are concerned.

The top 44 is already set - and the same as this month.

AFC announce seemingly useless club ranking

After announcing the member association ranking (used to determine slot allocations for AFC's club competitions),  AFC have also revealed a club ranking. Very similar to the UEFA club coefficient.

Saudi Arabia have two teams on the podium, with 2014 AFC Champions League finalists, Al Hilal, top of the list, with Al Ittihad in 3rd. Korea Republic's FC Seoul are 2nd.

2018 World Cup: Should FIFA postpone the preliminary draw?

As you know the 2018 FIFA World Cup preliminary draw will take place on 25 July 2015 in St. Petersburg.

Of course, FIFA have not revealed the seeding criteria, but it could be the FIFA ranking yet again. FIFA have already announced the release dates for 2015. The most recent ranking at the time of the draw will be the July ranking - published on 9 July, while the next ranking would be published on 6 August.

December 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the December 2014 FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent.

The most popular opponent were again Northern Ireland (70), followed by Antigua and Barbuda (59) and American Samoa (29).

Friday, December 12, 2014

UEFA Nations League update (12 December 2014)

Long overdue post. I know I promised to update the UNL coefficients, but didn't quite find the time until now.

All you need to know about this competition can be found on UEFA.com.

Analyzing the AFC member association ranking

The FIFA ranking is really making a comeback in Asia. About 4 years ago, AFC chose to seed the final draw for the 2011 AFC Asian Cup using previous tournament performance. Australia were at that time 19th in the World and 1st in AFC, yet were placed in the 2nd pot, based on their (not so impressive) 2007 AFC Asian Cup showing. For those who don't remember, they were eliminated in the quarter-finals. Asked by (most likely annoyed) Australian journalists, here's what Ali Al-Hamdani, AFC spokesman, had to say: "We see no reason to follow FIFA rankings".

FIFA Ranking: December 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 December.

Only one match left:

13/Dec Uzbekistan - Palestine (Friendly)

Friday, December 5, 2014

2015 Africa Cup of Nations simulations

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

Top 10 most likely finals:

3.32% - Cameroon vs. Côte d'Ivoire
3.18% - Algeria vs. Ghana
2.64% - Algeria vs. Côte d'Ivoire
2.62% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ghana
2.29% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. South Africa
2.24% - Ghana vs. Senegal
2.02% - Algeria vs. Senegal
1.99% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. Tunisia
1.98% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. Senegal
1.92% - Ghana vs. Tunisia

2015 AFC Asian Cup simulations

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

Top 10 most likely finals:

6.94% - Australia vs. Japan
4.37% - Australia vs. Korea Republic
3.79% - Iran vs. Japan
3.55% - Japan vs. United Arab Emirates
3.41% - Australia vs. Uzbekistan
3.35% - Australia vs. Iran
2.83% - Iran vs. United Arab Emirates
2.71% - Japan vs. Korea Republic
2.40% - Japan vs. Jordan
2.35% - Australia vs. Oman

November 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the November 2014 FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent.

The most popular opponent were again a team from the UK - this time Northern Ireland (64), followed by Dominican Republic (42) and Antigua and Barbuda (36).

Friday, November 28, 2014

FIFA Ranking: Team of the Year and Mover of the Year

Every December, FIFA will announce the Team of the Year and Mover of the Year award winners, based on the FIFA ranking.

Since the top 23 of the December ranking will be the same as this month, obviously the Team of the Year will be Germany.


FIFA Ranking: December 2014 preview and probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 December.

A quiet interval in terms of matches. The AFF Championship trudges along. This tournament will have matches included in three editions of the FIFA ranking, as the final matches will be included in the January 2015 ranking. There's also an odd South Africa - Côte d'Ivoire friendly, plus some friendlies in Asia as teams begin final preparations for the AFC Asian (thanks thebear!) Cup.

Only the aforementioned African friendly will affect the top 50, with China's and Uzbekistan matches affecting the top 100.

FIFA Ranking: Greatest upsets (28 November 2014)

About three years ago, I've updated the greatest upsets list. Since then, I kind of forgot about them until the Faroe Islands pulled off a shocking win in Greece. A question in the Guardian prompted a deep dive in my database. I've sent them the results and John Ashdown suggested I should publish them here. Thanks for mentioning my blog, John!

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (28 November 2014)

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.

Friday, November 21, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (21 November 2014)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 20 November 2014.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

FIFA Ranking: November 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 27 November.

6 matches left - all friendlies as far as FIFA is concerned. The semifinals of the Gulf Cup and the first round of group stage matches of the AFF Suzuki Cup.

These matches won't affect the top 80.

Does the FIFA ranking matter to coaches?

Most of the national team coaches seem to ignore the ranking. It seems there's at least one coach taking another stance.


Friday, October 31, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (31 October 2014)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competiton/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

FIFA Ranking: November 2014 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 27 November.

Already added Serbia - Albania 3:0.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

FIFA Ranking: November 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the November 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: November 2014 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 27 November.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

43 - Serbia
43 - Bangladesh
31 - Cuba
26 - Ecuador
21 - Germany
15 - Cambodia
13 - Equatorial Guinea
13 - Burundi
12 - Swaziland
12 - Sao Tome e Principe

Friday, October 24, 2014

October 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the September 2014 FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent.


After Sierra Leone's drop of 25 places, the most popular opponent for the month of September were Wales (50), closely followed by Congo (47) and Antigua and Barbuda (37).

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (24 October 2014)

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.

Friday, October 17, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding: Oldest timeframe now closed

Next update: October 2018.

Assuming FIFA will again use the October 2017 ranking to determine the seeds, the 0.2 time frame (games played between 36 and 48 months ago relative to the release date) closed a couple of days ago.

It's not looking good for some of the big teams, but there's plenty of time to climb in the rankings.

FIFA Ranking: October 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 23 October.

Two matches left - both friendlies (although they are part of an important ASEAN competition - the AFF Suzuki Cup):

18/10 Cambodia - Myanmar
18/10 Laos - Timor Leste

Friday, September 26, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying: CONCACAF format and seeding proposal

Three days ago, ESPN's Fernando Palomo published insider details (in Spanish) regarding the proposal CONCACAF sent to its member federations.

The previous format featured 2 group stages. The first group stage has been replaced by two KO rounds in the proposed format.

September 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the September 2014 FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent.

The most popular opponent for the month of August were again Sierra Leone, this time far ahead of the pack - no less than 97 teams had the Stars as their recommended opponent. Aruba (45) and Armenia (32) were the other teams in the top 3.

Best teams to play against in October

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.

Friday, September 19, 2014

FIFA Ranking: October 2014 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 23 October.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these results, Haiti and Trinidad & Tobago are expected to climb more than 40 spots, with Dominican Republic, Lithuania, Togo, Cuba, Israel, Egypt, South Africa climbing 20 or more. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Slovenia and Moldova will drop more than 20 spots, with Bolivia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and New Caledonia dropping 15 or more.

FIFA Ranking: October 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the October 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: October 2014 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 23 October.

Quite a busy month - 141 matches.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

29 - Cuba
23 - Colombia
14 - Vietnam
10 - Philippines
9 - El Salvador
9 - Chad
9 - Guam
8 - Liberia
8 - Korea DPR
7 - Rwanda
7 - Curaçao
7 - Nicaragua

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (19 September 2014)

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.

Friday, September 12, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (12 September 2014)

I've received comments and e-mails about 2018 WCQ pots for UEFA. "When will you do the sims?"

As usual with competiton/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.


FIFA Ranking: September 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 September.

Four matches left - the finals of the Copa Centroamericana and a friendly.

13/09 Honduras - Nicaragua
13/09 El Salvador - Panama
13/09 Guatemala - Costa Rica
14/09 Indonesia - Malaysia

Friday, September 5, 2014

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (5 September 2014)

Updated to include the 10000 points - thanks Ed.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

I've already included the 2016 campaign. That's why for instance Germany have only 31135 points.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

August 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the August FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent

The most popular opponent for the month of July were again Sierra Leone - best opponent for 51 teams. However, Aruba (46) and Iceland (44) were not far behind.

Best teams to play against in September

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.


FIFA Ranking: September 2014 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 September.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these results, Antigua and Barbuda, and Guyana expected to climb more than 50 spots, while Guatemala and Dominican Republic are expected to climb more than 40. Macedonia, Venezuela and Luxembourg will drop around 30 places.

In the top 50, Cape Verde Islands, Bulgaria and Wales would be the best movers, while Venezuela, Sierra Leone and Slovakia would be the worst movers.

FIFA Ranking: September 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the September 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: September 2014 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 September.

Quite a busy month - 138 matches.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):


36 - Namibia
31 - Rwanda
29 - Wales
25 - Saudi Arabia
24 - Cuba
21 - Tahiti
18 - Israel
15 - Benin
13 - Antigua and Barbuda
10 - Equatorial Guinea
10 - New Caledonia

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Signed on as FIFA ranking consultant

On Monday, I signed a fancy 4-page contract to provide consultancy services to a football association. Since the contract also has a confidentiality clause, I'm not allowed to go into details about this association. I shall call it Amplistan.

The negotiations took 1167 days since they first contacted me until the signing of the contract. Mind you, there have been wars shorter than these negotiations. I had lost all hope at one point, but God sometimes answers prayers when you least expect Him to.

AFCON qualifiers: CAF not following their own regulations

Equatorial Guinea used an ineligible player (Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta) in both legs of the AFCON 2015 first round against Mauritania.

Mauritania won the first leg 1-0 and lost the return leg 3-0.

Looking at article 36 of the AFCON regulations (2012 version):

Friday, August 8, 2014

FIFA Ranking: August 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 August.

Two issues regarding AFCON 2015 qualifiers - I haven't been able to find the regulations and got no reply from CAF.

1. Equatorial Guinea were disqualified for using an ineligible player, but the matches against Mauritania were not awarded 3 - 0.
2. Seychelles withdrew, but there's no decision regarding the result of their home match vs. Sierra Leone. If the match is awarded 3 - 0 to Sierra Leone, they will climb to 43rd.

Friday, July 25, 2014

July 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the July FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team.

The most popular opponent for the month of June were Sierra Leone - best opponent for 87 teams.

2018 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding: 'Only' 3 years and 3 months left

Yes, I know, it's too early. However, if FIFA will use again the October 2017 ranking, it means the results taken into account will be from October 2013 to October 2017, thus in less than three months the "0.2" time frame will close.

Needless to say, some big teams have had an unimpressive start or should I say they forgot to start?

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for AFC (25 July 2014)

The qualifying system has already been announced by AFC.

Assumptions:

- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- AFC will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding the first group stage draw

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for CAF (25 July 2014)

Assumptions:

- CAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CAF will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for CONCACAF (25 July 2014)

Assumptions:

- CONCACAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CONCACAF will choose the March 2015 ranking for seeding

Friday, July 18, 2014

FIFA Ranking: August 2014 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 August.

22 matches left to be played.

Of the teams involved in these matches, the one that could climb highest is Sierra Leone. They could climb to 43rd. This means the top 42 is already set.


FIFA Ranking: August 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the August 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: August 2014 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 August.

22 matches left to be played.

Of the teams involved in these matches, the one that could climb highest is Sierra Leone. They could climb to 43rd. This means the top 42 is already set.


Confederation weightings for the next 4 years

Unless FIFA tweaks the formula somehow, these are the values that will be used for the next 4 years (up to and including the 2018 FIFA World Cup final).

Friday, July 11, 2014

FIFA Ranking: July 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 17 July.

4 matches left. Two African friendlies and the last two matches of the World Cup.

Uganda - Seychelles
Rwanda - Gabon
Brazil - Netherlands
Germany - Argentina

This is how the points and ranking could change for these 8 teams:

Confederation weightings update (11 July 2014)

After the semifinals.

CONMEBOL sure to remain on top.

Friday, July 4, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for UEFA (4 July 2014)

I received last week an e-mail from someone at Deloitte with questions about the 2018 seeding for Europe. I planned to update this after the World Cup, but since the 4 remaining UEFA teams are in the first pot and there are no other matches involving European teams before the 0.5 time frame closes, here's the current situation.

Assumptions:

- UEFA will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- UEFA will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding

2014 World Cup Castrol Index bottom 11

See the 2010 World Cup bottom 11 and EURO 2012 bottom 11.

Based on the Castrol Index.

Restricting the field to players that have played in at least 50% of the team playing time (i.e. 135 minutes for a team knocked out in the group stage).

Bottom 10 goalkeepers

Friday, June 27, 2014

FIFA Ranking: July 2014 statistics

More details in the preview.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

277 - Netherlands
252 - Colombia
231 - Belgium
225 - France
201 - Argentina
183 - Uruguay
126 - Costa Rica
110 - Ecuador
67 - Switzerland
66 - Turks and Caicos Islands

2014 FIFA World Cup simulations (27 June 2014)

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

See the simulations from one week ago.

Top 10 most likely finals:

11.46% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
8.55% - Argentina vs. Brazil
7.45% - Germany vs. Netherlands
5.68% - Argentina vs. Germany
3.85% - Brazil vs. Mexico
3.75% - Belgium vs. Brazil
3.59% - Colombia vs. Netherlands
3.2% - France vs. Netherlands
3.02% - Brazil vs. USA
2.85% - Brazil vs. Costa Rica


FIFA Ranking: July 2014 preview and probable ranking (27 June 2014)

Yes, two in one :)

22 matches left involving 25 teams. 6 friendlies and 16 World Cup matches.

Here's how the points and ranking could change for these 25 teams:


Elo Ratings update (27 June 2014)

Kirill is most likely on vacation. Since I use the Elo ratings for probable results and simulations, here's an update.

Results taken from Roonba

Confederation weightings update (27 June 2014)

At the end of the group stage.

CONMEBOL still on top, while UEFA have done some damage limitation with their latest wins. CONCACAF drop due to their recent defeats.


Friday, June 20, 2014

2014 FIFA World Cup simulations (20 June 2014)

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

See the simulations from 3 weeks ago (here and here).

Top 10 most likely finals:

13.95% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
12.47% - Argentina vs. Brazil
8.23% - Argentina vs. Germany
8.04% - Germany vs. Netherlands
4.93% - Brazil vs. Chile
4.90% - Chile vs. Netherlands
4.89% - Brazil vs. Italy
4.41% - Brazil vs. Germany
4.14% - Argentina vs. Colombia
4.10% - Colombia vs. Netherlands

FIFA Ranking: July 2014 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Follow @FootballRanks #fifaranking

Thank you TwitterFeed followers.

Blog main page: Football Rankings.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: July 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the July 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins


Confederation weightings update

After last night's matches, these are the new values.

CONMEBOL 1
UEFA 0.98
CONCACAF 0.89
AFC, CAF, OFC 0.85

Since UEFA dropped from the top, will FIFA consider changing the formula yet again?

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Elo Ratings update

Kirill is most likely on vacation. Since I use the Elo ratings for probable results and simulations, here's an update.

Results taken from Roonba.

Spain is out of the top 5.

Friday, June 6, 2014

2014 FIFA World Cup: Quick look at the coaches

18 teams will be led by a local coach. There will be coaches from 19 nations.

3 of them are from Colombia, but Colombia are coached by an Argentinian.

2014 FIFA World Cup simulations (chances of reaching certain stage)

By request.

I didn't run the sims again - it's based on those from last week.

Reaching the round of 16:


2014 World Cup final squads statistics

Notice: this is based on FIFA data. And this data has plenty of errors. For instance, looking at the height/weight of players. Ghana's John Boye is listed at 160 cm and 89 kg, although other sites have him at 185 cm and 72 kg. Boye's body mass index according to FIFA data is 34.76, very close to severely obese.

That's why I haven't included in this post any info regarding height/weight.

Also check the provisional squad statistics to see the changes.

297 clubs will send players to the final tournament.

England is the best represented league - 119 players, with Italy (81), Germany (78), Spain (64) and France (46) completing the top 5.

Russia, Italy, Switzerland and Costa Rica are the only teams with no English-based players.

Friday, May 30, 2014

2014 FIFA World Cup simulations

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

Top 10 most likely finals:

6.69% - Brazil vs. Spain
5.17% - Argentina vs. Brazil
2.69% - Brazil vs. Germany
2.57% - Germany vs. Spain
2.14% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
2.14% - Brazil vs. Portugal
2.04% - Brazil vs. Uruguay
2.01% - Argentina vs. Germany
1.99% - Brazil vs. England
1.62% - Brazil vs. Italy


Friday, May 23, 2014

2014 World Cup provisional squads statistics

You might remember the 2010 edition. This year I wasn't so sure about doing this, but I've been asked by a secondary school math teacher to provide a helping hand for the statistics module about to start. How could I refuse? :)

Caps, goals, ages are as of 16 May 2014. Same goes for players' clubs - based on FIFA's official list.

346 clubs have in the provisional list ( thank you PDFSplit! and Online OCR).

England are again the most represented league base, with 130 players plying their trade in one of the English leagues. Next are Germany and Italy (both 102), Spain (80) and France (63).

Friday, May 16, 2014

FIFA Ranking: June 2014 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

According to these results, Turkmenistan are expected to defeat Palestine the AFC Challenge Cup and rise 83 spots in the rankings, while Palestine will raise 64 places.


FIFA Ranking: June 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the June 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins


FIFA Ranking: June 2014 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 June.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

59 - New Zealand
52 - Ukraine
32 - Brazil
31 - Wales
22 - Bosnia-Herzegovina
21 - New Caledonia
19 - Burkina Faso
18 - Costa Rica
15 - Congo DR
15 - Central African Republic

Friday, April 18, 2014

A look the UEFA Nations League

A long overdue post about the new UEFA competition for national teams. There's an in depth article on UEFA's official website.

Please keep in mind the proposed Nations League format is provisional and subject to change.

In the UEFA Nations League, the 54 member associations will be divided into four groups based on coefficient rankings. These groups will then be further divided into playing pools of either three or four teams. The teams in each pool play each other home and away between September and December of the season in question, with the group winners either qualifying for the final four competitions or gaining promotion. The bottom sides face relegation from their division.

In addition, the UEFA Nations League will provide teams with another chance to qualify for the UEFA EURO final tournament.

Friday, April 11, 2014

FIFA Ranking: May 2014 preview

FIFA will release the ranking on 8 May.

8 matches remaining - 6 friendlies and 2 continental qualifiers.

Here's how the points and rankings could change:

Team - Min points - Max points - Min rank - Max rank

Tanzania 222 235 126 118
Burundi 209 227 127 121
Afghanistan 198 237 129 118
Tajikistan 188 229 133 121
Malaysia 143 161 148 137
Philippines 143 171 148 136
Kyrgyzstan 136 170 151 136
Mauritania 115 165 159 136
Nepal 102 123 162 154
Chad 80 105 170 159
Yemen 57 76 180 172
Mauritius 55 148 180 142

Friday, March 21, 2014

FIFA Ranking: April 2014 preview

Only 6 matches - all friendlies.

Here's how the points and rankings could change:

Team - Min points - Max points - Min rank - Max rank


USA 1007 1029 14 13
Mexico 868 891 20 19
Cuba 345 371 94 90
Indonesia 119 166 157 138
Nepal 107 128 160 151
Aruba 87 139 166 149
Guam 68 120 175 154
Yemen 39 60 186 180
Andorra 16 35 199 187

In the table below, the values used for these teams are the minimum possible.

Friday, March 7, 2014

AFC announce major competition changes

A bit of old news.

AFC announced on 24 January 2013 they will be making major changes to the AFC Asian Cup and FIFA World Cup qualification.

Here's the most important part.

FIFA Ranking: March 2014 final preview

Three matches left - all friendlies.

07/Mar Sudan - Chad
07/Mar Lesotho - Swaziland
09/Mar Lesotho - Swaziland

This is how the points and ranking could change for these 4 teams:

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Minimum rank - Maximum rank

Sudan 229 238 123 121
Lesotho 161 183 143 137
Chad 81 121 170 157
Swaziland 37 76 187 171

In the table below, I've used the minimum points for these 4 teams.

Friday, February 21, 2014

FIFA Ranking: March 2014 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Yemen, Vietnam and Uzbekistan expected to climb 10 or more places.

Myanmar, Palestine, Laos, Guam, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Tajikistan and United Arab Emirates expected to drop 10 or more.

FIFA Ranking: March 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the March 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: March 2014 preview

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

28 - Cuba
22 - Benin
19 - Congo DR
17 - Bolivia
13 - Afghanistan
6 - Japan
4 - Canada
4 - Malawi
4 - Nepal
3 - Nigeria
3 - Cambodia

Friday, February 14, 2014

Best teams to play against on 5 March

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for an OFC opponent.

The top 20 best teams to play against have already scheduled friendlies.

February 2014: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Korea DPR 136 61 75
Fiji 181 122 59
South Sudan 202 148 54
Syria 133 94 39
Kuwait 109 73 36
Guinea-Bissau 183 147 36
Vanuatu 179 144 35
Iraq 114 81 33
Guatemala 126 93 33
Papua New Guinea 194 161 33

Friday, January 31, 2014

FIFA Ranking: February 2014 preview

Next update: 7 February 2014.

5 matches left: 2 continental qualifiers (Oman - Jordan and Singapore - Jordan) and 3 friendlies (USA - Korea Republic and the final matches of the 2014 CHAN).

This is how the points and rankings could change:

AFCON 2015 qualifiers: Official format and seeding

CAF have announced the format for the 2015 AFCON qualifiers last week. See the press release (PDF file).

As for the qualifiers' draw, it shall be held Sunday, April 27th 2014 in Cairo, Egypt. The qualifiers shall be played in the format of several preliminary rounds, as well as a group phase with seven groups consisting of four teams each. The two top teams of each group will then directly qualify for the Orange AFCON 2015, along with the 3rd place winners of the seven groups.

EURO 2016: Minimum travel groups

Remember the EURO 2016 regulations leaked by the Romanian FA?

There were some principles no longer found in the latest regulations:

b) Venues with climate risk

 - Stadiums belonging to FAs from countries with cold winters are in this category
 - In a group there will be at most 3 teams from countries with cold winters. There are two subcategories: Very cold winter (Finland, Faroe Islands, Norway and Russia) and Cold winter (Andorra, Belarus, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Sweden and Ukraine).

Friday, January 24, 2014

UEFA EURO 2016 official qualifying draw pots

Source: UEFA.com

Pot 1: Spain (holders), Germany, Netherlands, Italy, England, Portugal, Greece, Russia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Pot 2: Ukraine, Croatia, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Hungary, Republic of Ireland
Pot 3: Serbia, Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Norway, Slovakia, Romania, Austria, Poland
Pot 4: Montenegro, Armenia, Scotland, Finland, Latvia, Wales, Bulgaria, Estonia, Belarus
Pot 5: Iceland, Northern Ireland, Albania, Lithuania, Moldova, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Cyprus
Pot 6: Luxembourg, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Faroe Islands, Malta, Andorra, San Marino, Gibraltar




About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, January 17, 2014

UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding info

There have been some changes in the coefficient calculation as noticed by Ed and peeotreck.

First of all the bonus point were tweaked. Second, the calculation for national associations that have hosted a final tournament in the reference period was changed.

In the case of an association that has hosted a UEFA EURO or FIFA World Cup final tournament during one of the reference periods as mentioned under Annex B.1.2 and therefore has no points from the respective qualifying competition, the points earned in the most recent qualifying competition in which the association has taken part are used.

Friday, January 10, 2014

FIFA Ranking: January 2014 final preview

I expect FIFA to include all 2014 CHAN matches in the February ranking.

Albania will overtake Norway for the first time ever.
Tajikistan will overtake Iraq for the first time ever.

Best movers:

13 - Saudi Arabia
10 - Egypt
9 - South Africa