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Friday, September 19, 2014

FIFA Ranking: October 2014 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 23 October.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these results, Haiti and Trinidad & Tobago are expected to climb more than 40 spots, with Dominican Republic, Lithuania, Togo, Cuba, Israel, Egypt, South Africa climbing 20 or more. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Slovenia and Moldova will drop more than 20 spots, with Bolivia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and New Caledonia dropping 15 or more.

Trinidad and Tobago, Israel, Egypt and South Africa are expected to be the best movers in the top 50, while the worst movers will be Congo, Montenegro, Tunisia, Iceland and Albania.

Algeria, Antigua and Barbuda, Philippines, South Sudan will most likely improve their best ever ranking.

Sudan, Thailand, Gambia, Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands will drop to new lows.

Probable October 2014 rank - Team - Probable October 2014 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Germany 1766 0 1
2 Argentina 1603 0 -28
3 Colombia 1511 0 23
4 Netherlands 1447 0 -9
5 Belgium 1388 0 -56
6 Brazil 1270 0 -21
7 Spain 1227 1 -1
8 Uruguay 1201 -1 -42
9 France 1191 0 -11
10 Switzerland 1162 0 -13
11 Portugal 1103 0 -47
12 Chile 1075 0 -25
13 Italy 1064 0 -4
14 Greece 1020 0 -32
15 Algeria 989 5 63
16 Costa Rica 974 -1 -14
17 Mexico 954 -1 -9
18 Croatia 938 1 10
19 Ukraine 920 5 65
20 England 919 -2 -16
21 Denmark 918 6 85
22 Côte d'Ivoire 915 0 36
23 USA 900 -6 -36
24 Romania 883 2 46
25 Bosnia-Herzegovina 837 0 -14
26 Serbia 820 8 174
27 Ecuador 812 -6 -77
28 Austria 810 11 188
29 Russia 796 -6 -79
30 Czech Republic 769 -2 -43
30 Senegal 769 6 124
32 Cape Verde Islands 755 9 151
33 Sweden 726 -1 64
34 Ghana 721 -1 60
35 Wales 715 -6 1
36 Turkey 707 2 70
37 Bulgaria 683 9 113
38 Cameroon 678 4 77
39 Scotland 674 -10 -40
40 Egypt 658 21 145
41 Nigeria 651 -4 9
42 Tunisia 650 -11 -51
43 Israel 615 21 117
44 Slovakia 614 -4 -2
45 Iceland 598 -11 -48
45 Trinidad and Tobago 598 41 224
47 South Africa 596 20 138
48 Iran 571 -4 -1
49 Mali 570 10 44
50 Japan 559 -2 2
51 Finland 558 14 67
52 Panama 546 3 6
53 Burkina Faso 544 -5 -13
54 Montenegro 540 -11 -51
55 Peru 527 -8 -36
56 Albania 509 -11 -62
57 Hungary 500 -3 -48
58 Guinea 492 -10 -65
59 Uzbekistan 491 -1 -39
60 Congo 487 -12 -70
61 Antigua and Barbuda 478 19 67
61 Korea Republic 478 2 -23
63 Guatemala 475 -6 -59
64 Honduras 470 -8 -65
64 Republic of Ireland 470 -2 -36
66 United Arab Emirates 463 7 33
67 Paraguay 460 -7 -54
68 Poland 456 2 20
69 Jordan 450 0 0
70 El Salvador 440 2 9
70 Libya 440 -2 -15
72 Haiti 431 47 165
73 Northern Ireland 428 -2 -7
74 Uganda 420 5 2
75 Zambia 418 13 53
76 Norway 417 0 -4
77 Benin 413 1 -7
77 Slovenia 413 -24 -142
79 Dominican Republic 405 28 110
79 Lithuania 405 24 96
81 Gabon 399 2 7
82 Oman 391 -6 -30
83 Venezuela 388 -17 -88
84 Armenia 380 -32 -176
84 Morocco 380 3 9
86 Congo DR 379 -13 -51
87 Angola 373 14 61
87 Sierra Leone 373 -12 -51
89 Estonia 369 -8 -34
90 Iraq 362 0 5
91 Australia 357 -7 -33
92 Rwanda 356 1 7
93 Cyprus 348 -8 -40
94 Belarus 345 -5 -19
95 China PR 343 2 2
96 Latvia 341 3 8
97 FYR Macedonia 340 15 54
97 Zimbabwe 340 -5 -13
99 Saudi Arabia 335 -17 -67
100 Qatar 332 -4 -10
101 Cuba 310 21 53
102 Botswana 306 -11 -50
103 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 302 3 1
103 Togo 302 22 57
105 Malawi 292 -7 -48
105 Mozambique 292 4 -2
107 Bahrain 290 -3 -15
108 Jamaica 284 -8 -37
108 Namibia 284 5 0
110 Tanzania 280 5 3
111 Palestine 278 -9 -33
112 Bolivia 273 -18 -73
112 Kenya 273 -1 -15
114 Georgia 271 -4 -19
115 Canada 267 5 2
116 Lesotho 266 -1 -11
116 St. Kitts and Nevis 266 1 -10
118 Niger 258 -11 -37
119 Liberia 249 7 8
120 Lebanon 246 1 -18
121 Equatorial Guinea 238 -7 -42
122 Azerbaijan 233 -27 -111
122 Luxembourg 233 5 -6
124 Burundi 232 6 6
125 Kuwait 231 -1 -19
126 Philippines 228 8 10
127 Guinea-Bissau 226 3 0
127 Moldova 226 -22 -76
129 New Zealand 225 -11 -49
130 Aruba 218 -1 -15
130 Kazakhstan 218 -3 -21
132 Myanmar 217 11 24
133 Ethiopia 214 -1 -8
133 Tajikistan 214 3 1
135 Afghanistan 209 0 -5
136 Vietnam 208 6 14
137 St. Lucia 197 -14 -59
137 Turkmenistan 197 4 0
139 Mauritania 195 1 -3
140 Chad 194 4 9
140 Sudan 194 -7 -27
142 Maldives 183 3 0
143 Madagascar 180 3 0
144 Central African Republic 178 -7 -31
145 Grenada 176 -8 -33
146 Curaçao 171 2 7
147 Korea DPR 168 3 8
148 Suriname 167 -1 -8
149 Kyrgyzstan 157 2 -1
150 Syria 154 2 0
151 Guyana 148 2 0
152 New Caledonia 142 -15 -67
153 Laos 141 16 57
154 Singapore 131 -5 -32
155 Indonesia 129 1 -1
155 Malta 129 0 -4
157 Malaysia 127 -3 -7
158 India 119 0 3
158 Puerto Rico 119 -1 -7
160 Swaziland 117 0 3
161 Guam 111 3 9
162 Thailand 102 -4 -14
163 Barbados 101 -2 -11
164 Tahiti 100 -2 -6
165 Belize 99 -2 -4
166 Hong Kong 96 -2 -6
167 Gambia 90 -1 -11
167 Nicaragua 90 3 7
169 Montserrat 86 -1 0
170 Seychelles 81 2 0
171 Bermuda 80 -1 -3
171 Comoros 80 3 0
171 Liechtenstein 80 1 -1
174 Sri Lanka 76 2 0
175 Sao Tome e Principe 72 2 0
176 Bangladesh 68 5 3
177 Turks and Caicos Islands 66 3 0
178 Chinese Taipei 64 0 -6
179 Yemen 62 5 4
180 Nepal 61 3 -1
181 Dominica 53 -14 -36
181 Solomon Islands 53 1 -11
183 Pakistan 51 -8 -26
184 South Sudan 43 1 0
185 Faroe Islands 42 -6 -25
186 Macau 40 0 -1
187 Samoa 37 0 0
188 Vanuatu 33 0 0
189 Mauritius 32 0 0
189 Timor-Leste 32 4 6
191 Fiji 30 -1 0
192 Mongolia 29 -1 0
193 American Samoa 26 0 0
193 Bahamas 26 0 0
193 Tonga 26 0 0
196 Brunei Darussalam 24 -3 -2
197 US Virgin Islands 20 -5 -8
198 Cambodia 19 1 6
199 Papua New Guinea 13 0 0
200 Eritrea 11 2 0
201 Cayman Islands 10 -3 -13
202 Andorra 9 1 0
203 British Virgin Islands 8 -4 -5
203 Somalia 8 1 0
205 Cook Islands 6 0 0
205 Djibouti 6 0 0
207 Anguilla 2 0 1
208 Bhutan 0 0 0
208 San Marino 0 0 0

5 comments:

  1. Do you think France stand a chance to keep the seeded status for the WC draw in July 2015 (assuming we'll have 9 groups again)? Could winning all the friendlies be enough or are they inevitably set to drop below the European Top 9?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. nogomet,

      Edgar has made some simulations about that already, see:
      http://www.football-rankings.info/2014/09/2018-fifa-world-cup-seeding-uefa-10000.html.

      France has only 9% chance of staying in pot 1 and an overwhelming 86% probability of ending up in pot 2.

      Delete
    2. Thanks, Ed. I missed that somehow.

      Delete
  2. Why is the prelim draw being made so early? Over a year before the UEFA fixtures usually begin. Previous draws are normall in December/January

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In order to give more match dates for AFC/CAF/CONCACAF.

      Delete