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Thursday, October 31, 2019

Qualification AFCON 2021 simulations (October 2019)

This November the first two match days of the group stage in qualifying for the African Cup of Nations 2021 will be played, in 12 groups of 4 teams. The group stage is played to a finish in Autumn 2020.
In between, in March and June 2020, the first two match days will be played of the second round of African qualifying for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. This is also a group stage consisting of 10 groups of 4 teams.

The exact date for the draw of the WCq group stage is not yet known. That will decide which FIFA-ranking will be used to seed the teams. FIFA will probably not publish a ranking in January or February next year, so for now I assume the November 2019 ranking will be used to seed the draw for this group stage.

Friday, October 18, 2019

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (October 2019)

The match days three and four of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started. See here for the simulation results after MD2.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (October 2019)

Match days three and four of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 were played last week. 

See here for more information about the CNL and the results of the initial simulations before the tournament started.
See here for more information about the qualification process for the Gold Cup 2021 and the results after MD2.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the whole CNL competition -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (October 2019)

The matchdays seven and eight in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played. See herehere and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 (March), MD4 (June) and MD6 (September).

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

FIFA ranking: October 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday October 24th.

This coming weekend the final 15 qualifiers for the African Nations Championship 2020 will be played. These matches will count for the October ranking.

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between September 16th and today the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-09-18 Congo DR - Rwanda 2:3 (in Congo DR)
2019-09-29 Bangladesh - Bhutan 4:1 (in Bangladesh)
2019-10-02 Dominican Republic - Cuba 0:0 (in the Dominican Republic)
2019-10-10 Niger - Zambia 1:1 (in Niger)
2019-10-13 Niger - Central African Republic 0:2 (in Niger)

In total 191 matches will count for this ranking.