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Friday, October 18, 2019

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (October 2019)

The match days three and four of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started. See here for the simulation results after MD2.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Syria 60,13 38,33 1,53 0,01 0,00
China PR 39,59 57,12 3,25 0,04 0,00
Philippines 0,26 4,20 76,80 18,58 0,16
Maldives 0,02 0,35 18,40 79,68 1,55
Guam 0,00 0,00 0,02 1,69 98,29
group B        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Australia 89,03 9,56 1,41 0,00 0,00
Jordan 9,20 53,42 37,09 0,29 0,00
Kuwait 1,77 36,87 59,62 1,67 0,07
Nepal 0,00 0,15 1,66 82,25 15,94
Chinese Taipei 0,00 0,00 0,22 15,79 83,99
group C        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Iran 57,57 27,81 14,59 0,03 0,00
Iraq 26,27 33,80 39,69 0,24 0,00
Bahrain 16,16 38,32 44,66 0,86 0,00
Hong Kong 0,00 0,07 1,05 92,73 6,15
Cambodia 0,00 0,00 0,01 6,14 93,85
group D        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Uzbekistan 67,05 23,00 9,14 0,75 0,06
Saudi Arabia 23,79 42,71 28,27 4,61 0,62
Palestine 8,75 30,88 46,26 11,62 2,49
Yemen 0,34 2,51 10,86 44,47 41,82
Singapore 0,07 0,90 5,47 38,55 55,01
group E        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Qatar 70,21 29,46 0,33 0,00 0,00
Oman 29,51 67,74 2,70 0,04 0,01
Afghanistan 0,28 2,59 48,40 40,45 8,28
India 0,00 0,21 46,64 45,87 7,28
Bangladesh 0,00 0,00 1,93 13,64 84,43
group F        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Japan 98,94 0,96 0,10 0,00 0,00
Tajikistan 0,34 50,99 46,82 1,83 0,02
Kyrgyzstan 0,72 47,79 50,64 0,84 0,01
Myanmar 0,00 0,26 2,24 67,71 29,79
Mongolia 0,00 0,00 0,20 29,62 70,18
group G        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
United Arab Emirates 41,57 31,03 25,42 1,96 0,02
Vietnam 31,90 29,78 34,41 3,84 0,07
Thailand 26,07 36,78 31,33 5,72 0,10
Malaysia 0,46 2,41 8,59 78,57 9,97
Indonesia 0,00 0,00 0,25 9,91 89,84
group H        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Korea Republic 90,38 7,84 1,71 0,07 0,00
Korea DPR 5,89 58,92 27,93 7,26 0,00
Lebanon 3,62 28,32 55,70 12,36 0,00
Turkmenistan 0,11 4,92 14,66 80,25 0,06
Sri Lanka 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,06 99,94

The probabilities to qualify for a next round and the difference (in procent-point) compared to the simulations after MD2:

Third round WCq - 1 to 12 (or 13 if Qatar is in this group)

Japan 99,87 2,99
Australia 98,12 4,03
Korea Republic 97,09 2,85
Syria 95,44 13,78
China PR 89,85 1,21
Oman 85,70 12,18
Iran 82,55 -6,49
Uzbekistan 73,29 19,04
United Arab Emirates 58,44 -12,75
Iraq 53,65 4,62
Bahrain 47,61 17,28
Vietnam 46,84 18,53
Jordan 45,43 -19,65
Thailand 45,24 11,54
Korea DPR 42,51 -5,35
Saudi Arabia 31,72 -3,19
Kuwait 24,61 2,34
Tajikistan 24,53 -19,38
Kyrgyzstan 20,17 3,17
Lebanon 17,17 -1,07
Palestine 13,76 -18,55
Philippines 2,71 -5,08
Afghanistan 1,34 -2,43
Turkmenistan 0,90 -4,98
Malaysia 0,87 -3,16
Yemen 0,40 -1,76
Maldives 0,10 -1,68
Singapore 0,07 -2,80
India 0,01 -4,12
Myanmar 0,01 -0,22
Indonesia 0 -0,50
Hong Kong 0 -0,25
Nepal 0 -0,07
Mongolia 0 -0,07
Bangladesh 0 -0,01
Chinese Taipei 0 0
Guam 0 0
Cambodia 0 0
Qatar 0 0
Sri Lanka 0 0


AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 1 to 12

Japan 99,84 3,74
Australia 97,45 5,22
Korea Republic 96,25 3,30
Qatar 95,47 7,91
Syria 93,18 16,31
China PR 85,67 -0,11
Iran 79,91 -7,37
Oman 78,49 11,55
Uzbekistan 70,34 19,44
United Arab Emirates 53,48 -14,45
Iraq 48,82 6,23
Bahrain 42,71 16,79
Vietnam 42,06 17,46
Thailand 39,61 10,24
Jordan 37,83 -22,49
Korea DPR 34,27 -7,37
Saudi Arabia 27,99 -3,77
Kuwait 18,51 -0,45
Tajikistan 17,17 -19,76
Kyrgyzstan 12,77 -0,62
Lebanon 12,36 -2,20
Palestine 11,29 -17,69
Philippines 2,01 -4,49
Afghanistan 0,98 -1,87
Malaysia 0,60 -2,61
Turkmenistan 0,41 -3,84
Yemen 0,39 -1,42
Singapore 0,07 -2,47
Maldives 0,06 -1,23
Myanmar 0,01 -0,10
India 0 -3,20
Indonesia 0 -0,46
Hong Kong 0 -0,15
Mongolia 0 -0,05
Nepal 0 -0,01
Bangladesh 0 -0,01
Chinese Taipei 0 0
Guam 0 0
Cambodia 0 0
Sri Lanka 0 0


ANCq3 - 13 to 28 (or 29 if China is in this group)

Philippines 94,75 14,05
Turkmenistan 88,57 11,92
Lebanon 87,58 8,68
Kyrgyzstan 87,13 7,43
Palestine 85,29 22,03
Tajikistan 82,66 20,31
Kuwait 81,24 2,97
India 72,61 -7,26
Saudi Arabia 71,17 10,50
Afghanistan 69,01 0,90
Korea DPR 65,73 7,83
Malaysia 65,34 8,43
Maldives 64,37 6,24
Jordan 62,17 22,69
Thailand 60,24 -5,62
Vietnam 57,81 -8,27
Bahrain 57,25 -14,81
Iraq 51,18 -5,46
United Arab Emirates 46,47 15,24
Yemen 43,41 2,38
Singapore 33,06 -16,59
Uzbekistan 29,59 -16,18
Hong Kong 27,04 -1,45
Nepal 22,32 -0,69
Oman 21,50 -11,26
Myanmar 20,19 -4,67
Iran 20,09 7,39
China PR 14,33 0,11
Syria 6,82 -16,15
Indonesia 4,80 -17,98
Bangladesh 4,77 0,76
Qatar 4,53 -7,86
Korea Republic 3,75 -3,29
Mongolia 3,28 -11,48
Australia 2,55 -5,20
Chinese Taipei 1,16 -5,58
Guam 0,20 -3,33
Cambodia 0,20 -2,35
Japan 0,16 -3,74
Sri Lanka 0,01 -0,53


Play-off qualification AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 29 (or 30) to 40


Sri Lanka 99,99 0,53
Cambodia 99,80 2,35
Guam 99,80 3,33
Chinese Taipei 98,84 5,58
Mongolia 96,72 11,53
Bangladesh 95,23 -0,75
Indonesia 95,20 18,44
Myanmar 79,80 4,77
Nepal 77,68 0,70
Hong Kong 72,96 1,60
Singapore 66,87 19,06
Yemen 56,20 -0,96
Maldives 35,57 -5,01
Malaysia 34,06 -5,82
Afghanistan 30,01 0,97
India 27,39 10,46
Turkmenistan 11,02 -8,08
Palestine 3,42 -4,34
Philippines 3,24 -9,56
Saudi Arabia 0,84 -6,73
Kuwait 0,25 -2,52
Tajikistan 0,17 -0,55
Thailand 0,15 -4,62
Vietnam 0,13 -9,19
Kyrgyzstan 0,10 -6,81
Uzbekistan 0,07 -3,26
Lebanon 0,06 -6,48
United Arab Emirates 0,05 -0,79
Bahrain 0,04 -1,98
Oman 0,01 -0,29
Iraq 0 -0,77
Korea DPR 0 -0,46
Jordan 0 -0,20
Syria 0 -0,16
Qatar 0 -0,05
Australia 0 -0,02
Iran 0 -0,02
Korea Republic 0 -0,01
China PR 0 0
Japan 0 0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

11 comments:

  1. Thanks, the groups should start to take shape after the next 2 match days.

    Is it possible to show the combined likelihood that Group Runners Up will qualify for the next AFC World Cup Stage, by listing Group A to Group H in order of decreasing likelihood?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sure Ted,

    the probability per group that the runner-up of the group is one of the best 4 runners-up:
    group A 80,92%
    group E 74,94%
    group C 71,44%
    group B 53,79%
    group H 43,29%
    group G 35,75%
    group F 29,79%
    group D 10,08%

    ReplyDelete
  3. Amazing Ed... Thanks a lot :-)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Ed, As always, I appreciate all the number crunching you do for us all. One thing I've yet to fully understand is what happens if Qatar finish in the "top 12" in terms of the AFC Asian Cup qualifying? Does that mean they qualify for that tournament, or do they still drop into the next stage of qualifying anyway (given that they have to vacate their place in the next round of World Cup qualifying)? I suspect they have to play on in qualifying (which seems a little unfair), but would appreciate a confirmation on this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Scott,

      the 8 group winners and the best 4 numbers two of this round (WCq2) qualify for WCq3 and are also qualified for the Asian Nations Cup.
      If Qatar is among those teams the fifth best number two also qualifies for WCq3, because Qatar as host is of course already qualified for the World Cup and will not participate in WCq3.
      If Qatar is not among those teams then they will proceed in the qualification for the Asian Nations Cup like any other Asian team (except AFC Nations Cup host China): the third round if they end on position 13-28 or the play-off round if they end below that.

      I know that in the wikipage is stated "Should Qatar win this group or be among the four best runners-up, they will advance to the Asian Cup qualifying third round only" but that is just nonsense. In the referenced link there, this 'fact' isn't mentioned at all.

      So in short: if Qatar ends in position 1-12 they are qualified for the AFC Nations Cup 2023.

      Delete
    2. The team that will replace Qatar in that case in WCq will also play in AFCq3 and that will lead to a scheduling conflict as from March 2021 on match days for both qualification rounds will be played in the same FIFA match windows. AFCq3 are groups of 4 so need 6 MDs, starting in Mar 2021. The format for WCq3 is not yet known, but was previous two groups of 6 so need 10 MDs, starting in Sep 2020.
      In the October 2020 window only 1 matchday for WCq3 is scheduled so there is space to shift matches for that team around. That scheduling conflict could be solved.

      Not ideal for that team (they will get a very busy schedule), but at least more fair than Qatar having to proceed in qualification while they are already qualified.

      Delete
    3. Thanks for clearing that up Ed. I had concluded that because of the likely scheduling conflict they would've pushed Qatar into AFCq3, but that would've meant their participation in the WCQ group stage was relatively pointless (other than to simply be active). Personally, (assuming they were ranked in the Top 12) I would've allowed Qatar go through to the final stage of WCQ as you could easily re-jig the placings at that stage instead and as a result avoid the fixture conjestion for the 13th team.

      Delete
    4. And the host of the tournament is China? If not in the top 12. Probably both Qatar and China automatically qualify for the Asian Cup. The remaining teams will fight for the remaining 10 places. I'm sorry for the mistakes. Google translator

      Delete
  5. Hi Ed, we appreciate the update of AFC simulations including the probability per group that the runner-up of the group is one of the best 4 runners-up, after MD6 matches. Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi ED, thanks again for all your info. I would appreciate if you can update us after these November matches

      Delete