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Thursday, October 17, 2019

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (October 2019)

Match days three and four of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 were played last week. 

See here for more information about the CNL and the results of the initial simulations before the tournament started.
See here for more information about the qualification process for the Gold Cup 2021 and the results after MD2.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the whole CNL competition -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.


The group results with teams ordered by average group position:


group A-1           1st         2nd          3rd
Canada 67,18 32,82 0,00
USA 32,82 67,18 0,00
Cuba 0,00 0,00 100,00
group A-2           1st         2nd          3rd
Mexico 99,99 0,01 0,00
Panama 0,01 96,56 3,43
Bermuda 0,00 3,43 96,57
group A-3           1st         2nd          3rd
Honduras 100,00 0,00 0,00
Martinique 0,00 83,74 16,26
Trinidad and Tobago 0,00 16,26 83,74
group A-4           1st         2nd          3rd
Costa Rica 54,42 26,78 18,80
Curacao 40,75 52,62 6,63
Haiti 4,83 20,60 74,57


group B-1           1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Grenada 91,18 8,82 0,00 0,00
French Guyana 6,41 60,94 21,68 10,97
St. Kitts and Nevis 2,41 23,43 57,07 17,09
Belize 0,00 6,81 21,25 71,94
group B-2           1st         2nd          3rd          4th
El Salvador 84,04 15,96 0,00 0,00
Dominican Republic 15,96 77,34 6,70 0,00
Montserrat 0,00 3,64 69,17 27,19
St. Lucia 0,00 3,06 24,13 72,81
group B-3           1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Jamaica 100,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Guyana 0,00 71,24 28,71 0,05
Antigua and Barbuda 0,00 28,62 69,71 1,67
Aruba 0,00 0,14 1,58 98,28
group B-4           1st         2nd          3rd          4th
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 44,09 33,32 22,59 0,00
Suriname 33,62 46,28 20,10 0,00
Nicaragua 22,29 20,40 57,31 0,00
Dominica 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00
group C-1           1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Barbados 81,72 18,28 0,00 0,00
Cayman Islands 18,28 79,86 1,86 0,00
St. Martin 0,00 0,43 56,45 43,12
US Virgin Islands 0,00 1,43 41,69 56,88

group C-2           1st         2nd          3rd
Bahamas 82,65 17,35 0,00
Bonaire 17,35 82,65 0,00
British Virgin Islands 0,00 0,00 100,00
group C-3           1st         2nd          3rd
Guatemala 100,00 0,00 0,00
Puerto Rico 0,00 99,93 0,07
Anguilla 0,00 0,07 99,93
group C-4           1st         2nd          3rd
Guadeloupe 99,92 0,08 0,00
Turks and Caicos Islands 0,08 95,77 4,15
St. Maarten 0,00 4,15 95,85


The performance in the Final Four. In the last 3 columns the difference in procent-point compared to the simulations after MD2:


Final Four           1st         2nd      semis     diff 1st    diff 2nd diff semis
Mexico 63,54 15,98 20,47 6,13 -1,17 1,11
Honduras 9,92 10,56 79,52 3,25 -6,98 28,47
Costa Rica 8,58 22,10 23,74 -4,45 -6,14 -4,43
Canada 8,26 26,67 32,25 3,30 18,16 5,75
USA 8,03 15,55 9,24 -6,16 0,11 -21,16
Curacao 1,41 7,91 31,43 0,23 2,93 13,03
Haiti 0,26 1,23 3,34 -0,50 -0,82 0,15
Panama 0,00 0,00 0,01 -0,74 -1,12 -3,21
Bermuda 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,02 -0,14 -0,84
Cuba 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Martinique 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,69 -3,13 -11,28
Trinidad and Tobago 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,35 -1,70 -7,59

Then the Gold Cup 2021 qualification. Presented are the probabilities to:
- lose in the first qualification round
- lose in the second qualification round
- win the second qualification round (qualify for GC)
- qualify for GC directly
- total chance to qualify for GC.
Teams are ordered by the last column.


team           q1           q2    win q2  direct Q    total Q
USA 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 100,00
Canada 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 100,00
Mexico 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 100,00
Honduras 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 100,00
Jamaica 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 100,00
Panama 0,00 1,18 2,25 96,57 98,82
Curacao 0,00 2,59 4,04 93,37 97,41
Costa Rica 0,00 4,39 14,41 81,20 95,61
Martinique 0,00 6,49 9,77 83,74 93,51
Grenada 4,81 2,62 1,39 91,18 92,57
El Salvador 4,92 4,36 6,68 84,04 90,72
Haiti 0,00 21,32 53,25 25,43 78,68
Trinidad and Tobago 0,00 35,53 48,21 16,26 64,47
Bermuda 0,00 46,30 50,27 3,43 53,70
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 16,85 10,50 5,97 44,09 50,06
Guatemala 25,18 27,04 47,78 0,00 47,78
Cuba 0,00 52,46 47,54 0,00 47,54
Suriname 19,72 14,70 11,86 33,62 45,48
Dominican Republic 37,82 24,93 14,59 15,96 30,55
Nicaragua 9,18 6,47 4,75 22,29 27,04
French Guyana 24,80 19,68 16,46 6,41 22,87
Guadeloupe 51,51 30,14 18,27 0,00 18,27
Guyana 35,45 22,51 13,28 0,00 13,28
Barbados 48,33 22,60 10,79 0,00 10,79
St. Kitts and Nevis 10,18 7,70 5,55 2,41 7,96
Antigua and Barbuda 14,48 8,92 5,22 0,00 5,22
Bahamas 63,18 15,69 3,78 0,00 3,78
Bonaire 12,18 4,00 1,17 0,00 1,17
Belize 3,53 2,20 1,08 0,00 1,08
Cayman Islands 13,37 3,84 1,07 0,00 1,07
St. Lucia 1,80 0,84 0,42 0,00 0,42
Montserrat 2,56 0,93 0,15 0,00 0,15
Aruba 0,09 0,05 0,00 0,00 0,00
Dominica 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
US Virgin Islands 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
St. Martin 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
British Virgin Islands 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Puerto Rico 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Anguilla 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Turks and Caicos Islands 0,06 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,00
St. Maarten 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00



Finally a preview of the June 2020 ranking for CONCACAF teams, ordered by average ranking position.


team         hex       pot 1       pot 2       pot 3       pot 4
Mexico 100,00 0 0 0 0
USA 100,00 0 0 0 0
Jamaica 100,00 0 0 0 0
Costa Rica 100,00 0 0 0 0
Honduras 99,93 0,07 0 0 0
Canada 51,65 48,35 0 0 0
--------------------------------------
El Salvador 35,30 64,70 0 0 0
Curacao 10,91 89,09 0 0 0
Panama 2,21 97,79 0 0 0
Haiti 0 100,00 0 0 0
Trinidad and Tobago 0 100,00 0 0 0
Antigua and Barbuda 0 99,98 0,02 0 0
Guatemala 0 96,76 3,24 0 0
St. Kitts and Nevis 0 51,17 48,83 0 0
--------------------------------------
Nicaragua 0 38,80 61,20 0 0
Suriname 0 11,62 88,38 0 0
Dominican Republic 0 1,61 98,39 0 0
Grenada 0 0 95,25 4,75 0
Barbados 0 0,06 98,22 1,72 0
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0 0 78,84 21,16 0
Bermuda 0 0 86,10 13,90 0
Belize 0 0 71,20 28,80 0
--------------------------------------
Guyana 0 0 49,03 50,97 0
St. Lucia 0 0 16,66 83,34 0
Cuba 0 0 4,59 95,41 0
Puerto Rico 0 0 0,04 99,96 0
Dominica 0 0 0 99,89 0,11
Montserrat 0 0 0 99,94 0,06
Cayman Islands 0 0 0,01 95,91 4,08
Aruba 0 0 0 69,79 30,21
--------------------------------------
Bahamas 0 0 0 32,01 67,99
Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0 0,01 99,99
US Virgin Islands 0 0 0 2,44 97,56
British Virgin Islands 0 0 0 0 100,00
Anguilla 0 0 0 0 100,00


Canada deals the first blow to El Salvador with regard to qualification for the hex by winning against the US of A.

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

1 comment:

  1. Forza azzurri (green? no thanks)October 18, 2019 at 3:51 AM

    I was watching Canada vs United States in disbelief (the Americans played like little kids in the playground) when the announcer blurted out: "I hope they are not doing this to let Canada in the hexagonal ....."

    ReplyDelete