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Wednesday, March 30, 2022

FIFA ranking: April 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking tomorrow, Thursday March 31st. Just in time to use it as the seeding ranking for the Finals draw the following day, Friday April 1st at 18:00 CET that shindig will start.

This final preview contains 169 matches, out of 181 matches played since February 7th.


Just now New Zealand has demolished Solomon Islands in the OFC qualification final, so they will participate in the interconfederational play-off against the CONCACAF number four in June.

And tonight (for us Europeans) the CONCACAF octagonal finishes with the last 4 matches: Canada is qualified but they need a win to clinch the final spot in pot 3 (relegating Tunisia to pot 4), Mexico needs a point against El Salvador to qualify. Costa Rica - USA is about the third direct qualification spot. Costa Rica needs a win with 6 goals difference to pip the USA. That probably won't happen, so the Central-Americans will highly likely be the opponent of New Zealand in June. Mexico and USA will be in pot 2 for the draw when they qualify.

The other IPO is between Peru and the winner of Australia - United Arab Emirates.

Saturday, March 12, 2022

FIFA ranking April 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the April 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on March 31st.


Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.


Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: April 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable April 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday March 31st. This ranking will include the conclusion of World Cup qualification in all confederations. Also a lot of friendlies are scheduled plus the preliminary play-offs in AFCON 2023 qualification. And the  two-legged play-outs (still for the Nations League 2021) Estonia - Cyprus and Moldova - Kazakhstan to decide which two teams will stay in league C and which two will relegate to league D for the next Nations League 2022-2023, with the group stage of that tournament already to be played in June and September this year.

FIFA ranking April 2022: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA April 2022 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.


Normally the home team's gained points will be the away-team's lost points. Still, both are given because there are in FIFA's calculation approach cases when they will not be the same: PSO-matches and knock-out matches in final competitions.

FIFA ranking: April 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 145 currently scheduled matches up to and including March 30th, used to calculate the April 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.


Also the already played matches since February 7th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.