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Wednesday, March 30, 2022

FIFA ranking: April 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking tomorrow, Thursday March 31st. Just in time to use it as the seeding ranking for the Finals draw the following day, Friday April 1st at 18:00 CET that shindig will start.

This final preview contains 169 matches, out of 181 matches played since February 7th.


Just now New Zealand has demolished Solomon Islands in the OFC qualification final, so they will participate in the interconfederational play-off against the CONCACAF number four in June.

And tonight (for us Europeans) the CONCACAF octagonal finishes with the last 4 matches: Canada is qualified but they need a win to clinch the final spot in pot 3 (relegating Tunisia to pot 4), Mexico needs a point against El Salvador to qualify. Costa Rica - USA is about the third direct qualification spot. Costa Rica needs a win with 6 goals difference to pip the USA. That probably won't happen, so the Central-Americans will highly likely be the opponent of New Zealand in June. Mexico and USA will be in pot 2 for the draw when they qualify.

The other IPO is between Peru and the winner of Australia - United Arab Emirates.


The points to be won tonight in the final matches counting for the April ranking:

MEX

SLV

pos

pts

pos

pts

MEX win

9

1658,82

74

1331,65

draw

13

1646,32

70

1344,15

SLV win

16

1633,82

69

1356,65

CRC

USA

pos

pts

pos

pts

USA win

39

1478,09

9

1658,72

draw

37

1490,59

13

1646,22

CRC win

31

1503,09

16

1633,72

PAN

CAN

pos

pts

pos

pts

CAN win

68

1357,79

31

1504,00

draw

65

1370,29

37

1491,50

PAN win

61

1382,79

39

1479,00

JAM

HON

pos

pts

pos

pts

JAM win

63

1378,75

83

1289,47

draw

67

1366,25

78

1301,97

HON win

70

1353,75

76

1314,47


Elo predicts wins for Mexico, Canada and Jamaica and a draw between Costa Rica and USA.


Brazil has finally regained the top spot over Belgium. They were first already in September 1993, in only the second ranking (from now 316 published rankings).

The Cook Islands are once again included in the ranking after the one qualifier they were able to play this month before COVID-19 struck again.


Two teams record new highs:

Canada (31 - 33 in February 2022)

Kosovo (108 - 109 in September 2021)


Four teams dropped to new lows:

Liechtenstein (192 - 191 in July 2017)

Guam (207 - 206 in October 2021)

US Virgin Islands (208 - 207 in November 2019)

British Virgin Islands (209 - 208 in October 2019)


Two teams equaled their lowest ranking:

Anguilla (210 first in November 2019)

San Marino (211 first in November 2018)



Best movers:

10 - New Zealand

7 - South Sudan

6 - North Macedonia, Sao Tomé e Príncipe


Worst movers:

-8 - Azerbaijan, Somalia

-7 - New Caledonia


Best movers in the top 50:

5 - Costa Rica

4 - Norway, Saudi Arabia


Worst movers in the top 50:

-5 - Australia

-4 - Austria, Turkey


These will be the pots for the Finals draw when the elo-predictions for the CONCACAF matches tonight come true:


pot 1

Qatar - AFC

Brazil - CONMEBOL

Belgium - UEFA

France - UEFA

Argentina - CONMEBOL

England - UEFA

Spain - UEFA

Portugal - UEFA


pot 2

Mexico - CONCACAF

Netherlands - UEFA

Denmark - UEFA

Germany - UEFA

USA - CONCACAF

Uruguay - CONMEBOL

Switzerland - UEFA

Croatia - UEFA


pot 3

Senegal - CAF

Iran - AFC

Japan - AFC

Morocco - CAF

Serbia - UEFA

Poland - UEFA

Korea Republic - AFC

Canada - CONCACAF


pot 4

Tunisia - CAF

Cameroon - CAF

Ecuador - CONMEBOL

Saudi Arabia - AFC

Ghana - CAF

UEFA PO placeholder (Wales - Scotland/Ukraine)

CONMEBOL/AFC IPO placeholder (Peru - Australia/United Arab Emirates)

CONCACAF/OFC IPO placeholder (Costa Rica -New Zealand)


Stay safe and healthy everybody !


pos Apr

team

pts Apr

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Brazil

1832,69

1

9,27

2

Belgium

1827,00

-1

-1,45

3

France

1789,85

0

3,70

4

Argentina

1765,13

0

-1,86

5

England

1761,71

0

6,19

6

Italy

1723,31

0

-17,46

7

Spain

1709,19

0

4,44

8

Portugal

1674,78

0

14,53

9

Mexico

1658,82

3

10,92

10

Netherlands

1658,66

0

4,93

11

Denmark

1653,60

-2

-0,94

12

Germany

1650,53

-1

2,20

13

USA

1646,22

0

2,88

14

Uruguay

1635,73

2

21,68

15

Switzerland

1635,32

-1

-7,51

16

Croatia

1621,11

-1

0,37

17

Colombia

1600,52

2

14,63

18

Wales

1588,08

2

10,07

19

Sweden

1584,77

-2

-3,49

20

Senegal

1584,16

-2

-3,62

21

Iran

1564,49

0

-8,40

22

Peru

1562,32

0

-1,13

23

Japan

1553,44

0

3,62

24

Morocco

1551,88

0

4,46

25

Serbia

1547,53

0

0,15

26

Poland

1544,20

2

13,58

27

Ukraine

1535,08

0

0

28

Chile

1526,40

-2

-16,76

29

Korea Republic

1519,54

0

-3,31

30

Nigeria

1504,01

2

-5,90

31

Canada

1504,00

2

6,18

32

Egypt

1500,67

2

3,62

33

Czech Republic

1500,62

-2

-9,80

34

Austria

1500,37

-4

-11,19

35

Tunisia

1499,80

1

9,88

36

Russia

1493,42

-1

0

37

Costa Rica

1490,59

5

26,53

38

Cameroon

1480,48

0

-0,34

39

Scotland

1472,66

1

0,84

40

Hungary

1466,08

1

0,46

41

Norway

1463,50

4

8,07

42

Australia

1462,29

-5

-24,57

43

Turkey

1461,81

-4

-10,91

44

Algeria

1461,26

-1

0,33

45

Slovakia

1454,98

1

-0,38

46

Ecuador

1452,63

-2

-6,00

47

Republic of Ireland

1449,48

2

5,19

48

Romania

1446,54

-1

-6,64

49

Saudi Arabia

1444,69

4

10,74

50

Paraguay

1443,30

0

2,77

51

Qatar

1441,41

1

3,50

52

Mali

1436,62

-4

-9,87

53

Cote d'Ivoire

1435,28

-2

-4,34

54

Northern Ireland

1423,55

0

-1,42

55

Greece

1421,43

0

-0,56

56

Burkina Faso

1409,61

0

-8,97

57

Finland

1406,87

0

-4,90

58

Venezuela

1398,14

0

-13,31

59

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1388,63

0

-2,56

60

Ghana

1387,36

1

5,91

61

North Macedonia

1381,07

6

13,84

62

Iceland

1380,85

-2

-1,96

63

Jamaica

1378,75

-1

0,13

64

Slovenia

1378,23

0

2,81

65

Albania

1371,86

0

-3,12

66

Congo DR

1365,07

0

-4,46

67

Panama

1357,79

-4

-17,77

68

United Arab Emirates

1356,99

1

3,89

69

South Africa

1356,01

-1

-2,23

70

Montenegro

1342,79

2

-0,10

71

Cape Verde Islands

1339,50

2

2,62

72

Iraq

1338,91

2

13,47

73

Bulgaria

1338,78

-2

-6,69

74

El Salvador

1331,65

-4

-14,39

75

Oman

1324,16

4

23,16

76

Israel

1305,92

1

-0,78

77

China PR

1304,02

-2

-9,79

78

Bolivia

1298,81

-2

-9,31

79

Curacao

1298,39

1

0

80

Guinea

1293,21

1

0,63

81

Gabon

1290,65

1

0

82

Honduras

1289,47

-4

-14,49

83

Benin

1288,91

0

6,38

84

Uzbekistan

1286,55

1

9,53

85

Georgia

1276,31

1

7,07

86

Uganda

1275,50

-2

-3,68

87

Bahrain

1265,76

2

2,15

88

Syria

1265,03

3

13,81

89

Zambia

1262,22

-1

-2,42

90

Haiti

1261,86

-3

-6,19

91

Jordan

1259,84

-1

0

92

Armenia

1245,13

0

2,89

93

Belarus

1243,23

1

9,80

94

Luxembourg

1229,60

-1

-6,85

95

Kyrgyzstan

1218,48

1

-10,21

96

Vietnam

1215,38

2

-3,17

97

Lebanon

1211,71

-2

-17,26

98

Congo

1211,36

-1

-10,04

99

Palestine

1208,90

1

0

100

Trinidad and Tobago

1206,88

1

0,89

101

New Zealand

1206,07

10

44,41

102

Madagascar

1205,61

0

0

103

Equatorial Guinea

1203,93

-4

-6,14

104

Kenya

1202,26

-1

0

105

Cyprus

1186,09

0

7,44

106

Sierra Leone

1177,78

1

3,97

107

India

1174,04

-3

-8,71

108

Kosovo

1173,90

1

10,85

109

Korea DPR

1169,96

-1

0

110

Estonia

1169,06

-4

-7,44

111

Thailand

1167,68

1

7,54

112

Namibia

1162,93

-2

0

113

Mauritania

1162,48

3

9,96

114

Tajikistan

1159,42

1

6,86

115

Guinea-Bissau

1158,80

-2

0,18

116

Niger

1153,23

-2

-5,16

117

Libya

1149,63

1

0,12

118

Guatemala

1147,85

5

9,45

119

Mozambique

1146,09

-2

-4,92

120

Malawi

1145,08

-1

0

121

Togo

1140,05

5

6,81

122

Zimbabwe

1138,56

0

0

123

Gambia

1138,19

2

3,01

124

Angola

1137,67

3

5,95

125

Faroe Islands

1137,40

-1

0,41

126

Kazakhstan

1134,77

-6

-5,94

127

Antigua and Barbuda

1131,08

1

0

128

Comoros

1130,77

3

4,57

129

Azerbaijan

1127,05

-8

-11,97

130

Tanzania

1123,79

2

5,03

131

Central African Republic

1122,08

-1

-5,12

132

Sudan

1118,40

1

0,09

133

Philippines

1117,89

-4

-12,02

134

Turkmenistan

1117,60

0

0

135

Latvia

1105,02

0

4,99

136

Rwanda

1097,16

0

0

137

Solomon Islands

1092,56

5

19,78

138

Lithuania

1092,04

-1

0,27

139

Burundi

1077,38

2

1,56

140

Ethiopia

1076,66

-2

-4,57

141

Suriname

1073,39

-1

-4,18

142

St. Kitts and Nevis

1072,30

-3

-5,46

143

Eswatini

1070,46

4

16,32

144

Nicaragua

1062,21

0

0

145

Lesotho

1061,72

1

4,10

146

Kuwait

1059,94

-3

-5,62

147

Hong Kong

1053,39

1

0

148

Botswana

1051,59

1

0

149

Afghanistan

1049,77

1

0

150

Liberia

1046,58

-5

-11,70

151

Yemen

1046,26

0

0

152

Myanmar

1044,56

0

0

153

Andorra

1040,13

2

9,85

154

Malaysia

1035,06

0

0,53

155

Dominican Republic

1029,42

1

0

156

Maldives

1025,50

1

3,92

157

Chinese Taipei

1017,78

1

0

158

Singapore

1012,27

3

11,49

159

Indonesia

1001,61

1

0

160

New Caledonia

999,70

-7

-35,42

161

South Sudan

998,45

7

20,64

162

Papua New Guinea

997,60

3

7,05

163

Vanuatu

995,62

1

0

164

Tahiti

995,11

-5

-19,16

165

Fiji

988,30

-3

-7,97

166

Barbados

987,52

-3

-8,42

167

Bermuda

982,43

-1

0

168

Nepal

978,86

-1

-3,36

169

Malta

971,56

5

12,61

170

Grenada

968,49

-1

-5,54

171

Cambodia

966,61

0

0

172

Guyana

966,38

3

7,51

173

Puerto Rico

962,77

-1

0

174

Belize

962,21

-4

-5,21

175

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

960,71

-2

0

176

St. Lucia

953,45

1

0

177

Cuba

950,91

2

1,95

178

Montserrat

950,71

0

0

179

Mauritius

940,47

-3

-14,71

180

Moldova

932,79

1

5,94

181

Chad

931,98

-1

-3,02

182

Macau

922,10

0

0

183

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

917,62

6

14,31

184

Dominica

916,72

-1

0

185

Laos

914,66

2

10,06

186

Mongolia

911,49

-2

-5,19

187

Bhutan

910,96

-2

0

188

Bangladesh

903,98

-2

-3,85

189

American Samoa

900,27

1

0

190

Cook Islands

899,33

-

-8,67

191

Brunei Darussalam

898,96

-3

-4,94

192

Liechtenstein

895,08

-1

-4,44

193

Samoa

894,26

0

0

194

Djibouti

875,98

-2

-20,64

195

Cayman Islands

873,64

0

0

196

Seychelles

866,94

0

-3,69

197

Pakistan

866,81

0

0

198

Timor-Leste

865,47

0

0

199

Tonga

861,81

0

0

200

Aruba

859,97

0

0

201

Bahamas

858,50

0

0

202

Somalia

857,39

-8

-16,32

203

Gibraltar

857,20

0

3,60

204

Eritrea

855,56

-2

0

205

Sri Lanka

842,93

-1

0

206

Turks and Caicos Islands

839,84

-1

0

207

Guam

838,33

-1

0

208

US Virgin Islands

816,13

-1

0

209

British Virgin Islands

812,94

-1

0

210

Anguilla

792,34

-1

0

211

San Marino

776,97

-1

-3,36


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

11 comments:

  1. So, Canada didn't manage a win in Panama after all. Bad elo !

    As a result Canada stays in pot 4 and Tunisia stays in pot 3.

    ReplyDelete
  2. First of all, let me congrat Ed for his amazing work.
    Secondly, just a quick answer to our friend anonymous, regarding the post on 19 November 2020. I give you that you were right, Portugal didin´t qualify as top of its group, tehy conceded a last minute goal against Serbia at home and tehy were denied a winner goal in last minute at Serbia, in which the ball was totally in but there was no VAR in that game. You said "Hey, whoever is interested in making lots of money out there just listen to me and make these bets where they have such bets. Bet on that Portugal will not win their 2022 European World Cup qualifying Group & bet that Portugal will not qualify for the 2022 World Cup" and "Portugal will not win their group. They might not even come in second in their group and qualify for the playoffs. But even if they do manage to somehow squeak into the playoffs, they will not win two separate games against two different opponents. Guys trust me on this. I know what I am talking about. I know it and I feel it. Portugal will fail to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. I have two guarantees that I will make. (1) Portugal will fail to qualify for the 2022 World Cup"... My friend, I´m glad you don´t gamble, but maybe you are "owing" money to a lot of people :) I also hope, as you said, being an "historian of the sport", that you learn when it matters, Portugal rarely doesn´t deliver. I also hope that you get better "fellings" next time, otherwise, just don´t go with your gut... :D
    Good luck for the draw tomorrow, Portugal will loose the 3 games for sure... :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. The problem with Guinea Bissau. They won 2 friendly games, but the rating did not increase

    ReplyDelete
  4. FIFA excluded and I included:
    2022-03-23 Equatorial Guinea - Guinea-Bissau 0:3 friendly tournament in Portugal
    2022-03-25 Trinidad and Tobago - Barbados 9:0 friendly tournament in Trinidad and Tobago
    2022-03-26 Angola - Guinea-Bissau 3:2 friendly tournament in Portugal
    2022-03-26 Bahrain - Burundi 1:0 friendly in Bahrain
    2022-03-27 Guyana - Barbados 5:0 friendly tournament in Trinidad and Tobago
    2022-03-27 Sierra Leone - Liberia 1:0 friendly in Turkey
    2022-03-27 Zambia - Benin 1:2 friendly in Turkey
    2022-03-29 Equatorial Guinea - Angola 0:0 friendly tournament in Portugal

    FIFA included and I excluded:
    2022-03-28 Fiji - Vanuatu 2:1 friendly in Qatar

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry. Many sources indicate that Guinea Bissau won against Angola

      Delete
    2. Yeah, you are right about the confusion: Soccerway had a GNB-win, RoonBa an ANG-win. The third source I checked was elo-ratings and they also had an Angolan win, that's why I have that in my database.

      Anyway, water under the bridge, FIFA excluded that complete friendly tournament in Portugal.

      Delete
  5. Why my country #Rwanda always above 130 why

    ReplyDelete
  6. Will you be running simulations for the June UEFA, AFC and intercontinental playoffs ?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Yes, this is a very quiet period NT-football wise, but from about mid May on I will report again concerning ranking previews, simulations etc.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hey Ed, just wondering if you think Chile's appeal against Ecuador's alleged ineligible player has any substance and what sort of chaos might ensue with the group draw if the appeal is successful? Would Chile simply replace Ecuador in Group A for example, or would there be wider ramifications and some potential complaints from Peru or Colombia?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Well, at least substance enough for FIFA to investigate it properly. But the consequences could indeed be vast.

    If the appeal is honored then the matches with the ineligible Ecuadorian player Byron Castillo should according to the FIFA-rules result in a 3:0 forfeit loss for Ecuador. The WC-qualifiers with this player involved were:

    sep-2020
    MD 9 : Ecuador-Paraguay 2-0
    MD 6 : Ecuador-Chile 0-0 (57 min: subbed in)
    MD 10: Uruguay-Ecuador 1-0

    okt-2020
    MD 11: Ecuador-Bolivia 3-0

    nov-2020
    MD 13: Ecuador-Venezuela 1-0
    MD 14: Chile-Ecuador 0-2

    mar-2021
    MD 18: Ecuador-Argentina 1-1

    This would lead to the following adapted final standing in the CONMEBOL group:
    BRA - 45
    ARG - 41
    URU - 28
    CHI - 24 GD +1
    PER - 24 GD -3
    COL - 23
    PAR - 19
    BOL - 18
    VEN - 13
    ECU - 12

    And Chile replaces Ecuador as qualified team. Peru remains the number 5 and would still go to the IPO.

    A few of the problems/questions that would arise for FIFA:
    - should the April 2022 ranking (the seeding ranking for the draw) be revised with these adapted match results ?
    - Chile occupied spot 28 (= pot 3) in the original April ranking. A simple replacement of Ecuador (pot 4) by Chile seems therefore not fair. Should the draw be completely redone ?
    - If the draw is redone then must we wait until after the June window and all berths are known and all teams could be properly seeded ? And what seeding ranking to use then ? The june ranking ?

    Exciting prospects, but I expect that FIFA will find a way to dismiss this appeal or simply replace Ecuador with Chile in case this appeal is solid.

    ReplyDelete