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Saturday, March 12, 2022

FIFA ranking: April 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable April 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday March 31st. This ranking will include the conclusion of World Cup qualification in all confederations. Also a lot of friendlies are scheduled plus the preliminary play-offs in AFCON 2023 qualification. And the  two-legged play-outs (still for the Nations League 2021) Estonia - Cyprus and Moldova - Kazakhstan to decide which two teams will stay in league C and which two will relegate to league D for the next Nations League 2022-2023, with the group stage of that tournament already to be played in June and September this year.


The Russian war in Ukraine that the delusional and fully accountable mister Putin started, have lead to some extraordinary measures taken by FIFA:

  • the Russian NT is suspended for the semi-final play-off in path B against Poland. This means that Poland receives a bye to the path B final and will play at home against the winner of Sweden/Czech Republic;
  • the semi-final play-off in path A between Scotland and Ukraine is postponed to the June window and as a result also the path A final is postponed to that window. The other semi-final in this path between Wales and Austria will be played as originally scheduled on March 24th.
What the implications will be on the final draw (still scheduled for April 1st) and the seeding of this draw is unknown, as FIFA still hasn't published anything formal about the draw procedures yet. My expectation (and hope) is that it will be completely seeded based on this April ranking and that unknown WC-participants during the draw will be seeded based on highest ranked participant in each play-off still to be played in June. That seems the most fair to me.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 145 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 159 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.


pos Apr

team

pts Apr

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Brazil

1832,69

1

9,27

2

Belgium

1832,00

-1

3,55

3

France

1789,87

0

3,72

4

Argentina

1777,84

0

10,85

5

England

1761,71

0

6,19

6

Italy

1743,74

0

2,97

7

Spain

1709,16

0

4,41

8

Portugal

1676,52

0

16,27

9

Mexico

1670,73

3

22,83

10

Denmark

1658,51

-1

3,97

11

Netherlands

1653,70

-1

-0,03

12

Germany

1650,49

-1

2,16

13

Switzerland

1640,29

1

-2,54

14

USA

1633,91

-1

-9,43

15

Croatia

1626,07

0

5,33

16

Uruguay

1623,23

0

9,18

17

Colombia

1600,52

2

14,63

18

Sweden

1597,28

-1

9,02

19

Senegal

1596,07

-1

8,29

20

Wales

1588,93

0

10,92

21

Iran

1577,19

0

4,30

22

Morocco

1563,85

2

16,43

23

Peru

1562,03

-1

-1,42

24

Japan

1553,85

-1

4,03

25

Serbia

1542,62

0

-4,76

26

Chile

1538,90

0

-4,26

27

Poland

1538,50

1

7,88

28

Ukraine

1535,08

-1

0

29

Korea Republic

1532,30

0

9,45

30

Nigeria

1516,51

2

6,60

31

Canada

1516,49

2

18,67

32

Austria

1500,65

-2

-10,91

33

Czech Republic

1499,77

-2

-10,65

34

Russia

1493,42

1

0

35

Egypt

1488,76

-1

-8,29

36

Australia

1486,99

1

0,13

37

Tunisia

1482,24

-1

-7,68

38

Algeria

1474,36

5

13,43

39

Scotland

1471,82

1

0

40

Cameroon

1467,39

-2

-13,43

41

Hungary

1466,04

0

0,42

42

Costa Rica

1465,87

0

1,81

43

Turkey

1464,53

-4

-8,19

44

Norway

1463,45

1

8,02

45

Mali

1460,43

3

13,94

46

Ecuador

1452,42

-2

-6,21

47

Romania

1451,50

0

-1,68

48

Slovakia

1450,03

-2

-5,33

49

Qatar

1446,37

3

8,46

50

Republic of Ireland

1444,51

-1

0,22

51

Cote d'Ivoire

1435,28

0

-4,34

52

Saudi Arabia

1432,48

1

-1,47

53

Paraguay

1431,09

-3

-9,44

54

Northern Ireland

1428,60

0

3,63

55

Greece

1421,53

0

-0,46

56

Finland

1416,82

1

5,05

57

Burkina Faso

1414,61

-1

-3,97

58

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1398,54

1

7,35

59

Venezuela

1398,14

-1

-13,31

60

Jamaica

1390,68

2

12,06

61

Albania

1376,76

4

1,78

62

Iceland

1375,89

-2

-6,92

63

Ghana

1374,86

-2

-6,59

64

Panama

1369,83

-1

-5,73

65

Slovenia

1368,28

-1

-7,14

66

North Macedonia

1362,42

1

-4,81

67

South Africa

1360,98

1

2,74

68

Congo DR

1353,10

-2

-16,43

69

Montenegro

1342,70

3

-0,19

70

Bulgaria

1338,82

1

-6,65

71

Cape Verde Islands

1338,46

2

1,58

72

Iraq

1338,33

2

12,89

73

El Salvador

1331,86

-3

-14,18

74

United Arab Emirates

1331,73

-5

-21,37

75

Oman

1311,96

4

10,96

76

Israel

1305,96

1

-0,74

77

China PR

1303,72

-2

-10,09

78

Bolivia

1298,81

-2

-9,31

79

Curacao

1298,39

1

0

80

Gabon

1290,65

2

0

81

Guinea

1288,21

0

-4,37

82

Uganda

1282,98

2

3,80

83

Benin

1282,53

0

0

84

Uzbekistan

1281,56

1

4,54

85

Honduras

1277,94

-7

-26,02

86

Bahrain

1275,76

3

12,15

87

Haiti

1266,86

0

-1,19

88

Zambia

1262,43

0

-2,21

89

Georgia

1261,40

-3

-7,84

90

Jordan

1259,84

0

0

91

Syria

1240,61

0

-10,61

92

Armenia

1240,17

0

-2,07

93

Lebanon

1236,50

2

7,53

94

Belarus

1233,23

0

-0,20

95

Luxembourg

1229,69

-2

-6,76

96

Kyrgyzstan

1224,15

0

-4,54

97

Congo

1221,40

0

0

98

Vietnam

1214,97

0

-3,58

99

Equatorial Guinea

1210,07

0

0

100

Madagascar

1209,16

2

3,55

101

Palestine

1208,90

-1

0

102

Trinidad and Tobago

1205,99

-1

0

103

New Zealand

1205,84

8

44,18

104

Kenya

1202,26

-1

0

105

Estonia

1183,84

1

7,34

106

India

1174,04

-2

-8,71

107

Sierra Leone

1173,81

0

0

108

Cyprus

1171,31

-3

-7,34

109

Korea DPR

1169,96

-1

0

110

Thailand

1167,68

2

7,54

111

Kosovo

1163,92

-2

0,87

112

Namibia

1162,93

-2

0

113

Guinea-Bissau

1158,62

0

0

114

Niger

1158,23

0

-0,16

115

Mauritania

1157,43

1

4,91

116

Gambia

1150,69

9

15,51

117

Libya

1149,67

1

0,16

118

Tajikistan

1148,75

-3

-3,81

119

Mozambique

1146,09

-2

-4,92

120

Malawi

1145,08

-1

0

121

Guatemala

1142,85

2

4,45

122

Kazakhstan

1142,45

-2

1,74

123

Faroe Islands

1142,36

1

5,37

124

Zimbabwe

1138,56

-2

0

125

Azerbaijan

1137,00

-4

-2,02

126

Togo

1133,24

0

0

127

Angola

1131,72

0

0

128

Antigua and Barbuda

1131,08

0

0

129

Philippines

1129,00

0

-0,91

130

Central African Republic

1127,20

0

0

131

Comoros

1126,20

0

0

132

Tanzania

1118,76

0

0

133

Sudan

1118,31

0

0

134

Turkmenistan

1117,60

0

0

135

Latvia

1100,06

0

0,03

136

Rwanda

1097,16

0

0

137

Lithuania

1092,01

0

0,24

138

Ethiopia

1081,23

0

0

139

St. Kitts and Nevis

1077,30

0

-0,46

140

Lesotho

1073,67

6

16,05

141

Suriname

1073,39

-1

-4,18

142

Burundi

1072,58

-1

-3,24

143

Eswatini

1070,46

4

16,32

144

Kuwait

1064,90

-1

-0,66

145

Solomon Islands

1064,59

-3

-8,19

146

Nicaragua

1062,21

-2

0

147

Liberia

1058,28

-2

0

148

Hong Kong

1053,39

0

0

149

Botswana

1051,59

0

0

150

Yemen

1046,26

1

0

151

Afghanistan

1046,22

-1

-3,55

152

Myanmar

1044,56

0

0

153

New Caledonia

1040,52

0

5,40

154

Malaysia

1035,11

0

0,58

155

Andorra

1030,18

0

-0,10

156

Dominican Republic

1029,42

0

0

157

Maldives

1025,50

0

3,92

158

Chinese Taipei

1017,78

0

0

159

Tahiti

1016,24

0

1,97

160

Vanuatu

1008,03

4

12,41

161

Indonesia

1001,61

-1

0

162

Singapore

1001,11

-1

0,33

163

Fiji

1000,78

-1

4,51

164

South Sudan

998,45

4

20,64

165

Barbados

995,94

-2

0

166

Bermuda

982,43

0

0

167

Nepal

978,86

0

-3,36

168

Grenada

973,45

1

-0,58

169

Belize

967,42

1

0

170

Cambodia

966,61

1

0

171

Puerto Rico

962,77

1

0

172

Malta

961,61

2

2,66

173

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

960,71

0

0

174

Mauritius

959,01

2

3,83

175

Guyana

958,87

0

0

176

Papua New Guinea

958,69

-11

-31,86

177

St. Lucia

953,45

0

0

178

Montserrat

950,71

0

0

179

Cuba

945,71

0

-3,25

180

Moldova

925,11

1

-1,74

181

Macau

922,10

1

0

182

Chad

919,48

-2

-15,52

183

Dominica

916,72

0

0

184

Mongolia

911,56

0

-5,12

185

Bhutan

910,96

0

0

186

Bangladesh

909,03

0

1,20

187

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

905,74

2

2,43

188

Laos

904,60

-1

0

189

Brunei Darussalam

903,90

-1

0

190

American Samoa

900,27

0

0

191

Liechtenstein

895,11

0

-4,41

192

Samoa

894,26

1

0

193

Cook Islands

879,60

-

-28,40

194

Djibouti

875,98

-2

-20,64

195

Cayman Islands

873,64

0

0

196

Pakistan

866,81

1

0

197

Timor-Leste

865,47

1

0

198

Tonga

861,81

1

0

199

Aruba

859,97

1

0

200

Bahamas

858,50

1

0

201

Somalia

857,39

-7

-16,32

202

Eritrea

855,56

0

0

203

Seychelles

854,58

-7

-16,05

204

Gibraltar

852,20

-1

-1,40

205

Sri Lanka

842,93

-1

0

206

Turks and Caicos Islands

839,84

-1

0

207

Guam

838,33

-1

0

208

US Virgin Islands

816,13

-1

0

209

British Virgin Islands

812,94

-1

0

210

Anguilla

792,34

-1

0

211

San Marino

778,01

-1

-2,32



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

12 comments:

  1. Thanks for the April information. Can you please explain the Cook Islands ranking situation?
    It's my understanding that they did not have a rank since July 2019 [908.00] or didn't play since the introduction of the new FIFA ranking system. So how is FIFA treating this situation?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Exactly as you say, Ram. The Cook Islands were excluded from the FIFA ranking after July 2019 when they had 908 points and hadn't played a match in 4 years.
    Now they will play their first competitive match since September 2015 with 908 points as their starting point for the match points calculation of that match. And they will join the April 2022 ranking again after their March qualification matches.

    Elo predicts they will lose all 3 group matches and lose 28,4 points for the FIFA ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  3. My goodness, what a mess and sad situation in OFC Qualifying...As per FIFA.com - "For the avoidance of doubt, the match between the Cook Islands and the Solomon Islands, which took place on 17 March 2022 with a 2-0 result in favour of the Solomon Islands, will count with respect to the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, although it will not count with respect to the preliminary competition Group A standings."
    SOURCE : FIFA.com.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I must disagree with your expectations (and hopes) regarding seedings of teams which will participate at June play offs. Why would you take the highest team ranking? Keep in mind that almost 90% participants will be known next week. Almost half is already known. Teams which failed to clinch the world cup spot until June must NOT be seeded over teams from the same continental zones which already beaten them. Australia/Syria/Peru or Costa Rica/New Zealand who cares?! They cannot be over already qualified Canada or Ecuador. Pot 4 is only reasonable pot for them.
    Exception could be only european contestant Wales/Scotland/Ukraine is moved to June because of high force. However I would not seed any european playoff winner over group winners from the November.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Assume that for some reason the path A final was postponed to June and Italy and Portugal were qualified for that final. In that case FIFA would not have hesitated to seed the placeholder-berths according to highest ranking.
      Because in that case it is obvious for everyone that neither one of them belongs to pot 4.

      I think you should solve this situation with placeholder-berths to be drawn (and seeded) always in the same style, no matter which participants actually qualified for the play-offs. Preferably this should already be described in the regulations beforehand, but alas, FIFA's regulations are always notoriously vague.

      So for me, it doesn't matter at all at what moment and which how much effort participants exactly qualify. It's the principle that the seeding should be fair and simple and should never lead to the possible situation that strong teams are seeded (far) below their strength and the chance for unbalanced groups is relatively high. Because that was in 2017 one of the main reasons to switch to a seeding of the final draw completely based on a FIFA ranking.

      And if a less strong team qualifies eventually from a play-off, then it has proven (by beating the stronger opponent) that the higher seeding in the draw was justified after all.

      Delete
  5. Hello Ed,

    I have a question about Egypt team. If Egypt drew with Senegal , Egypt become 1513 points. If Egypt lose to Senegal 1-0 in dakar and win on penalties , Egypt becomes 1519 points ! Is that correct? Or if Egypt loses 1-0 and won by penalties it will be counted as a loss?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Indeed Fan, in case of a two-legged play-off and both legs end in a draw (the second after extra time, that is) then the tie is decided by PSO and the points calculation of the second match starts with 0.75 for the PSO-winner and 0.5 for the PSO-loser.

    In this case when Egypt loses 1-0 in Dakar after extra time and PSO is necessary to get a decision the points calculation for the return leg starts with 1.0 for Senegal and 0.0 for Egypt.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Why would Mexico climb in the rankings from Feb, and higher than the U.S., when it looks like they will take 3rd in Concacaf and are 0-3-1 vs U.S. over the past couple of years?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Simple, because elo predicted a Mexico win against the USA and a USA draw in Costa Rica. See the probable results page.

      Delete
    2. Basically, they entered all of those with a way higher starting point - and the US dropped a lot of other games (loss to Panama, draw against El Salvador, etc.)

      The new FIFA rankings are a lot better than the other ones, but a consistent complaint about them is that they are slow to react to teams changing skill level (see Canada, Ecuador).

      Delete
    3. Which is a good thing, to have some inertia in the ranking. A temporary dip in form doesn't need to be directly reflected in the ranking. When a team consistently performs above their initial weight (like Canada now) they climb the ranking anyway. Canada climbed 40 places in a year. What's that about 'slow to react' ?

      Ecuador is another story. They were heavily screwed around the transformation from the old ranking method to the new ranking calculation method in 2018 and are since then structurally positioned below their 'weight'. They have real difficulty to gain enough points to climb substantially in the current points system.

      Delete