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Monday, December 10, 2018

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (10 december 2018)

The ten qualification groups for EURO 2020 were drawn last week. Now it's possible to simulate the complete match schedule, including the play-offs in March 2020 for the last 4 spots at the EURO's. These play-offs are a second chance for the group winners of the Nations League if they can't qualify directly by finishing first or second in their qualification group.

Monday, December 3, 2018

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (3 december 2018)

The group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 is finished. Yesterday was the draw for the qualification groups for EURO 2020 and today the draw for the Final Four of the Nations League. Finally all the ingredients are available for a complete simulation of the seeding for the European qualification for the World Cup 2022, bar the odd missing friendly of course.

I still think the July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.

The qualification format is not yet known in detail. I will give probabilities for three different formats with seeding pots consisting of 9, 10 or 11 teams.