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Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Canada set FIFA ranking target

About a month ago, on Oct 28th to be more exact, the Canadian Soccer Association published the "Strategic Plan" and "Strategic Activities" 2009 - 2013.

One goal found in the Strategic Activities document caught my eye: "Men Top 40 World Ranking and Top 3 in CONCACAF".

I did write to Dominique Maestracci (the chairman of the CSA) to offer my help in order to reach their goal.

His answer:

"Dear Sir,
Thanks for your comments.I was aware of the methodology.
D Maestracci.

PS:I hope we will work together for the benefits of Soccer in Canada."

And that's it.

Anyway, since I already did the research, I though I might as well post it since the CSA is not interested.

So, what should Canada do in order to break into the top 40 of the FIFA ranking?
  1. Get invited to the UNCAF Nations Cup 2009. UNCAF toyed with the idea of inviting a team in 2007 (Mexico and Venezuela were mentioned), but the negociations broke down. As UNCAF has only 7 teams, they always have a group of 4 and one of 3 teams, thus they need an extra team to balance things out. FIFA considers this tournament as a qualifying competition and the multiplier for FIFA points is 2.5 instead of 1 for a friendly match. Besides improving Canada's ranking (with a decent performance of course), it will also provide much needed experience for your players.
  2. Reach the semifinals of the Gold Cup 2009 - another source of points - the multiplier for continental final tournaments is 3.
  3. Take advantage of unrealistically high ranked teams. Play friendlies against them and win. For the next FIFA match date (February 11th, 2009), Canada should try to play against one of: Burkina Faso, Macedonia, Latvia, Senegal, Mali, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Slovakia, Guinea, Lithuania, Bolivia.
The UNCAF Nations Cup participation seems already dead in the water. I doubt the CSA ever approached UNCAF to discuss it.

I offered my help, they were not interested. Anyway, good luck!

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

11 februarie 2009 - adversarul ideal (III)

Eliminand echipele care au deja meci pe 11 februarie si echipele din grupa Romaniei, raman 24 de echipe care ne-ar aduce macar 400 de puncte FIFA in cazul unei victorii. In iulie 2008, cand am scris versiunea precendenta, erau 43. FRF ar face bine sa se grabeasca.

Ordinea coloanelor este: locul probabil in clasamentul FIFA din februarie 2009, numele tarii, puncte FIFA pentru Romania in cazul unei victorii tricolore.

7 Croatia 579
9 Rusia 573
12 Cehia 564
14 Ucraina 558
21 Uruguay 531.63
16 Camerun 510.6
32 Scotia 504
33 Polonia 501
34 Ecuador 493.02
23 Nigeria 491.175
43 Slovacia 471
31 Egipt 468.975
37 Ghana 452.325
48 Columbia 451.44
38 Coasta de Fildes 449.55
42 Maroc 438.45
46 Guinea 427.35
47 Mali 424.575
59 Macedonia 423
58 Bolivia 421.74
60 Bosnia-Hertegovina 420
52 Senegal 410.7
64 Tara Galilor 408
66 Letonia 402

Sa luam in calcul si probabilitatea unei victorii, folosind clasamentul ELO.

Pentru un meci acasa:

Ordinea coloanelor: locul probabil in clasamentul FIFA din februarie 2009, numele tarii, puncte FIFA in cazul unei victorii inmultite cu probabilitatea unei victorii a Romaniei.

43 Slovacia 400.24
14 Ucraina 393.83
32 Scotia 389.15
34 Ecuador 381.67
59 Macedonia 378.98
47 Mali 378.54
33 Polonia 374.75
60 Bosnia-Hertegovina 372.31
46 Guinea 370.61
52 Senegal 370.54
66 Letonia 365.26
58 Bolivia 364.04
16 Camerun 364.01
23 Nigeria 357.00
42 Maroc 352.04
37 Ghana 351.07
12 Cehia 350.41
64 Tara Galilor 339.81
38 Coasta de Fildes 336.75
21 Uruguay 336.03
48 Columbia 332.20
7 Croatia 329.24
31 Egipt 327.61
9 Rusia 327.45

Pentru un meci in deplasare:

Ordinea coloanelor: locul probabil in clasamentul FIFA din februarie 2009, numele tarii, puncte FIFA in cazul unei victorii inmultite cu probabilitatea unei victorii a Romaniei.

59 Macedonia 309.37
47 Mali 306.64
52 Senegal 305.86
66 Letonia 305.00
43 Slovacia 302.09
60 Bosnia-Hertegovina 298.92
46 Guinea 287.94
58 Bolivia 280.94
32 Scotia 260.70
34 Ecuador 256.44
64 Tara Galilor 249.60
42 Maroc 246.84
33 Polonia 242.57
14 Ucraina 240.70
37 Ghana 236.57
16 Camerun 224.59
23 Nigeria 224.43
38 Coasta de Fildes 218.31
48 Columbia 211.45
31 Egipt 198.33
12 Cehia 192.65
21 Uruguay 187.14
7 Croatia 170.35
9 Rusia 169.96

Pentru un meci pe teren neutru:

Ordinea coloanelor: locul probabil in clasamentul FIFA din februarie 2009, numele tarii, puncte FIFA in cazul unei victorii inmultite cu probabilitatea unei victorii a Romaniei.

43 Slovacia 358.33
59 Macedonia 350.59
47 Mali 349.08
52 Senegal 344.33
60 Bosnia-Hertegovina 342.08
66 Letonia 341.01
46 Guinea 335.90
32 Scotia 330.53
58 Bolivia 329.01
34 Ecuador 324.61
14 Ucraina 320.45
33 Polonia 313.30
42 Maroc 305.22
64 Tara Galilor 300.69
37 Ghana 298.99
16 Camerun 297.53
23 Nigeria 294.41
38 Coasta de Fildes 281.73
48 Columbia 275.56
12 Cehia 270.64
31 Egipt 265.35
21 Uruguay 261.22
7 Croatia 246.49
9 Rusia 245.55

Cea mai comoda optiune e sa jucam cu Slovacia, Macedonia sau Bosnia-Hertegovina in Cipru. Totusi, ar fi mai bine din punct de vedere al clasamentului FIFA sa jucam cu Ucraina, Scotia sau Polonia.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Monday, November 24, 2008

FIFA Ranking: Malaysia October and November 2008 detailed point totals

I don't get the same value as FIFA does, but that's because there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

The columns are as follows: Match date, Opponents' FIFA trigramme, FIFA match points for Malaysia.

October 2008

"0.2 time frame"

13-Oct-2004 HKG 0
17-Nov-2004 KUW 0
10-Dec-2004 PHI 127.5
12-Dec-2004 MYA 0
14-Dec-2004 THA 326.4
28-Dec-2004 IDN 277.95
3-Jan-2005 IDN 0
15-Jan-2005 MYA 142.8
4-Jun-2005 SIN 0
8-Jun-2005 SIN 0

"0.3 time frame"

19-Feb-2006 NZL 0
23-Feb-2006 NZL 0
31-May-2006 SIN 91.8
3-Jun-2006 SIN 91.8
23-Aug-2006 IDN 45.9
27-Aug-2006 MYA 0

"0.5 time frame"

12-Jan-2007 PHI 127.5
14-Jan-2007 MYA 42.5
16-Jan-2007 THA 0
23-Jan-2007 SIN 62.9
27-Jan-2007 SIN 62.9
24-Mar-2007 SRI 135.15
26-Mar-2007 SRI 0
18-Jun-2007 CAM 127.5
21-Jun-2007 UAE 0
28-Jun-2007 JAM 0
10-Jul-2007 CHN 0
14-Jul-2007 UZB 0
18-Jul-2007 IRN 0

"1.0 time frame"

21-Oct-2007 BHR 0
28-Oct-2007 BHR 221
6-Jun-2008 IDN 60.35
22-Jul-2008 IND 42.5

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4 874.65 10 0.2 17.493
-3 229.5 6 0.3 11.475
-2 558.45 13 0.5 21.47885
-1 323.85 5 1 64.77

For the last 12-month time frame, Malaysia only have 4 matches, but FIFA requires a minimum of 5, so the total is divided by 5 instead of 4.

My total: 115.2168462. FIFA has 109. However, my software makes adjustments based on previous month differences and Malaysia had 109 in my final October 2008 FIFA ranking preview.

November 2008

"0.2 time frame"

17-Nov-2004 KUW 0
10-Dec-2004 PHI 127.5
12-Dec-2004 MYA 0
14-Dec-2004 THA 326.4
28-Dec-2004 IDN 277.95
3-Jan-2005 IDN 0
15-Jan-2005 MYA 142.8
4-Jun-2005 SIN 0
8-Jun-2005 SIN 0

"0.3 time frame"

19-Feb-2006 NZL 0
23-Feb-2006 NZL 0
31-May-2006 SIN 91.8
3-Jun-2006 SIN 91.8
23-Aug-2006 IDN 45.9
27-Aug-2006 MYA 0

"0.5 time frame"

12-Jan-2007 PHI 127.5
14-Jan-2007 MYA 42.5
16-Jan-2007 THA 0
23-Jan-2007 SIN 62.9
27-Jan-2007 SIN 62.9
24-Mar-2007 SRI 135.15
26-Mar-2007 SRI 0
18-Jun-2007 CAM 127.5
21-Jun-2007 UAE 0
28-Jun-2007 JAM 0
10-Jul-2007 CHN 0
14-Jul-2007 UZB 0
18-Jul-2007 IRN 0
21-Oct-2007 BHR 0
28-Oct-2007 BHR 221

"1.0 time frame"

6-Jun-2008 IDN 60.35
22-Jul-2008 IND 42.5
10-Oct-2008 PAK 127.5
15-Oct-2008 NEP 127.5
20-Oct-2008 AFG 127.5
23-Oct-2008 MYA 127.5

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4 874.65 9 0.2 19.43667
-3 229.5 6 0.3 11.475
-2 779.45 15 0.5 25.98167
-1 612.85 6 1 102.1417

My total: 159.035. FIFA has 152. The adjusted value computed by my software was 153 as you can see in the November 2008 FIFA ranking preview.

Malaysia total rised because:

You dropped the defeat against Hong Kong (13 Oct 2004), so the average of the "0.2 time frame" increased.
Two matches against Bahrain (21 and 28 Oct 2007) dropped from 1.0 to 0.5 increasing the average of the 0.5 time frame.
You won 4 friendlies so the average of the last 12 months increased.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, November 21, 2008

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (19 November 2008)

The coefficients for the EURO 2012 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2006 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland (24960) and Ukraine (23026) - automatically qualified as hosts).

Only one match played: San Marino - Czech Republic 0 - 3. The Czechs climb 4 places to 7th.

Current ranking - Previous ranking - Team - Points
 1  1 Spain              32484
2 2 Germany 31633
3 3 Italy 30097
4 4 Netherlands 30045
5 5 England 28478
6 6 Croatia 28436
7 11 Czech Republic 27111
8 7 Turkey 26647
9 8 Greece 26425
------------------------------
10 9 Portugal 26319
11 10 Russia 25986
12 12 Sweden 25355
13 13 France 25231
14 14 Romania 25025
15 15 Israel 24711
16 16 Switzerland 24614
17 17 Serbia 24451
18 18 Denmark 23481
------------------------------
19 19 Slovakia 22848
20 20 Scotland 22771
21 21 Bulgaria 22718
22 22 Norway 22135
23 23 Ireland 22028
24 24 Finland 21187
25 25 Lithuania 20951
26 26 Belgium 20405
27 27 Austria 20360
------------------------------
28 28 Northern Ireland 20058
29 29 Bosnia-Herzegovina 20025
30 30 Hungary 19447
31 31 Wales 18954
32 32 Slovenia 18761
33 33 Latvia 18003
34 34 Albania 17679
35 35 Macedonia 17534
36 36 Belarus 17394
------------------------------
37 37 Georgia 15599
38 38 Cyprus 15591
39 39 Moldova 15074
40 40 Estonia 15072
41 41 Iceland 15004
42 42 Kazakhstan 13770
43 43 Armenia 13664
44 44 Liechtenstein 13441
45 45 Azerbaijan 12060
------------------------------
46 46 Montenegro 11950
47 47 Luxembourg 11812
48 48 Malta 11417
49 49 Andorra 9697
50 50 Faroe Islands 9640
51 51 San Marino 8483

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

FIFA Ranking: December 2008 preview (I)

Update: Fixed Serbia's total. Thanks samacado!
______________________________________________

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches played up to and including November 19th.

Still to play: Digicel Caribbean Championship final tournament, AFF Suzuki Cup and a couple of friendlies. These matches should not affect the top 50.

I will post at least one update before December 11th.

Netherlands up to 3rd, replacing Italy.
England continue to rise - up to 8th.
Turkey return to the top 10.
Czechia, France and Portugal - tied for 11th place.

So far, the best movers are Fiji - 32 places, followed by Kenya with 20 and three countries climbing 13 places: Bolivia, Uganda and Cyprus.

On the other end, New Zealand goes down 24 places, Belarus 22, Moldova and Eritrea 21.

Best movers in the top 50

11 - Korea Republic
9 - Australia
6 - Honduras and Hungary
5 - Ukraine, Egypt and Chile
4 - Saudi Arabia and Mali

Worst movers in the top 50

-11 - Bulgaria
-10 - Northern Ireland
-9 - Colombia
-8 - Finland
-6 - FYR Macedonia and Lithuania

1 Spain 1662 0 5
2 Germany 1381 0 -32
3 Netherlands 1338 1 32
4 Italy 1326 -1 -30
5 Brazil 1246 0 -40
6 Argentina 1180 0 -1
7 Croatia 1142 0 -16
8 England 1115 2 57
9 Russia 1103 -1 24
10 Turkey 1016 3 -16
11 Czech Republic 1007 -2 -55
11 France 1007 1 -28
11 Portugal 1007 -1 -51
14 Cameroon 988 0 -25
15 Ukraine 907 5 24
16 Egypt 894 5 15
17 Paraguay 889 0 -45
18 Israel 878 -3 -126
19 Nigeria 876 3 24
20 Greece 872 -2 -35
21 Romania 858 -2 -34
22 USA 853 2 19
23 Uruguay 828 0 -10
24 Switzerland 823 3 24
25 Ghana 817 1 12
26 Mexico 811 -1 -16
27 Bulgaria 781 -11 -170
28 Australia 776 9 37
29 Côte d'Ivoire 771 -1 -9
30 Serbia 764 0 -11
31 Chile 758 4 5
32 Sweden 750 -3 -26
33 Scotland 739 0 -22
34 Poland 735 -2 -30
35 Japan 731 3 9
36 Ecuador 729 -5 -42
37 Denmark 717 -3 -40
38 Republic of Ireland 711 -2 -40
39 Guinea 702 0 11
40 Honduras 690 6 67
41 Morocco 649 2 3
42 Korea Republic 630 11 41
43 Iran 627 1 -15
44 Slovakia 620 1 -7
45 Mali 616 4 13
46 Tunisia 605 1 -8
47 Lithuania 604 -6 -73
48 Saudi Arabia 603 4 13
49 Colombia 601 -9 -85
50 Hungary 600 6 49
51 Senegal 586 0 -7
52 Northern Ireland 580 -10 -90
53 Costa Rica 578 4 36
54 Belgium 546 1 -25
55 FYR Macedonia 534 -6 -69
56 Finland 533 -8 -78
57 Slovenia 531 1 -10
58 Bolivia 528 13 65
59 Norway 526 -5 -46
60 Wales 523 2 5
61 Bosnia-Herzegovina 517 6 25
62 Burkina Faso 512 -1 -9
62 Gabon 512 -3 -23
64 Algeria 501 -1 -13
65 Kenya 489 20 76
66 Venezuela 486 0 -11
67 Congo 484 2 9
68 Latvia 483 -3 -17
69 Angola 482 -1 6
70 Uganda 470 13 49
71 Uzbekistan 468 5 19
72 Peru 466 -2 2
73 Jamaica 464 10 43
74 Zambia 463 -3 0
75 South Africa 461 5 19
76 Iraq 459 -1 7
77 Rwanda 450 10 44
77 Trinidad and Tobago 450 1 7
79 Cuba 444 -6 -16
80 Bahrain 427 -6 -26
81 Albania 423 5 13
81 Libya 423 7 18
83 Iceland 421 -1 -2
84 New Zealand 419 -24 -113
84 Togo 419 7 23
86 Belarus 417 -22 -90
87 Qatar 415 -9 -28
88 Gambia 413 2 13
89 Panama 411 0 7
90 Canada 409 -9 -25
91 Congo DR 401 3 13
92 Austria 388 0 -3
93 Sudan 385 8 25
94 Cyprus 377 13 40
95 Mozambique 375 -3 -16
96 Oman 374 -1 -11
97 Moldova 373 -21 -76
97 Zimbabwe 373 0 -2
99 Tanzania 371 6 30
100 China PR 367 -2 -4
101 Benin 362 -6 -23
102 Ethiopia 350 0 2
103 Malawi 343 0 -3
104 Syria 339 0 -5
105 Fiji 333 32 133
106 Cape Verde Islands 331 5 28
107 Guatemala 328 1 7
108 Georgia 327 -9 -36
109 Haiti 320 -4 -21
110 United Arab Emirates 317 3 18
111 El Salvador 314 -2 8
112 Montenegro 310 3 25
113 Armenia 303 -3 -1
113 Korea DPR 303 -1 2
115 Namibia 287 -1 -3
116 Sierra Leone 286 8 33
117 Barbados 285 -17 -76
118 Botswana 282 1 3
119 Chad 260 4 0
120 Luxembourg 259 7 14
121 Equatorial Guinea 258 -1 -18
121 Estonia 258 10 23
123 Antigua and Barbuda 251 10 35
124 Bermuda 250 2 -1
124 Jordan 250 -6 -32
126 Thailand 245 -10 -38
127 Kuwait 238 1 -5
128 Suriname 231 1 -8
129 New Caledonia 229 -8 -46
130 Guyana 224 -14 -59
131 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 221 -9 -45
132 Singapore 218 4 11
133 Burundi 211 -3 -26
134 Azerbaijan 209 0 1
135 Madagascar 207 -1 -1
136 Kazakhstan 199 -11 -53
137 Indonesia 196 -5 -25
138 Swaziland 190 2 9
139 Grenada 185 0 -14
140 Liberia 179 2 0
141 Vanuatu 176 2 1
142 Puerto Rico 175 -1 -5
143 Niger 168 4 10
144 India 165 0 -9
145 Tajikistan 162 1 -1
145 Yemen 162 0 -7
147 Malta 151 3 -2
148 Turkmenistan 150 0 -6
149 Liechtenstein 147 3 2
150 Lebanon 146 -1 -8
151 Hong Kong 138 5 14
152 Malaysia 135 -1 -17
153 Netherlands Antilles 128 2 0
153 St. Kitts and Nevis 128 10 23
155 Maldives 126 -2 -7
156 Myanmar 115 2 -1
157 Mauritania 112 3 0
158 Eritrea 109 -21 -91
159 Philippines 107 -2 -11
160 Lesotho 106 1 -3
161 Laos 102 1 -6
161 Vietnam 102 -2 -13
163 Kyrgyzstan 101 -9 -28
164 Solomon Islands 100 1 0
164 Sri Lanka 100 2 9
166 Pakistan 92 2 2
167 Seychelles 91 -1 0
168 Chinese Taipei 85 2 3
169 Turks and Caicos Islands 83 0 0
170 Bahamas 74 1 -7
170 Mauritius 74 3 0
172 Cayman Islands 73 -8 -28
173 Belize 71 3 0
173 Cambodia 71 1 -1
173 Nepal 71 4 4
176 Bangladesh 70 5 16
177 Samoa 64 3 0
177 St. Lucia 64 -5 -11
179 Palestine 53 4 6
180 British Virgin Islands 49 -3 -18
181 Afghanistan 45 2 -2
181 Brunei Darussalam 45 1 -7
181 Nicaragua 45 4 0
184 Faroe Islands 42 2 5
185 Dominican Republic 40 -6 -26
186 Guinea-Bissau 39 -12 -33
187 Bhutan 33 0 1
188 Djibouti 32 -1 0
188 Tahiti 32 -1 0
188 Tonga 32 -1 0
191 Dominica 25 0 0
192 Mongolia 24 0 0
193 Aruba 22 0 0
194 Andorra 20 0 1
195 US Virgin Islands 17 0 0
196 Macau 10 1 0
197 Timor-Leste 9 1 0
198 Comoros 8 -2 -5
199 Central African Republic 6 1 0
200 Somalia 5 -1 -3
201 American Samoa 0 0 0
201 Anguilla 0 0 0
201 Cook Islands 0 0 0
201 Guam 0 0 0
201 Montserrat 0 0 0
201 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
201 San Marino 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.