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Friday, September 26, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying: CONCACAF format and seeding proposal

Three days ago, ESPN's Fernando Palomo published insider details (in Spanish) regarding the proposal CONCACAF sent to its member federations.

The previous format featured 2 group stages. The first group stage has been replaced by two KO rounds in the proposed format.

September 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the September 2014 FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent.

The most popular opponent for the month of August were again Sierra Leone, this time far ahead of the pack - no less than 97 teams had the Stars as their recommended opponent. Aruba (45) and Armenia (32) were the other teams in the top 3.

Best teams to play against in October

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.

Friday, September 19, 2014

FIFA Ranking: October 2014 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 23 October.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these results, Haiti and Trinidad & Tobago are expected to climb more than 40 spots, with Dominican Republic, Lithuania, Togo, Cuba, Israel, Egypt, South Africa climbing 20 or more. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Slovenia and Moldova will drop more than 20 spots, with Bolivia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and New Caledonia dropping 15 or more.

FIFA Ranking: October 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the October 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: October 2014 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 23 October.

Quite a busy month - 141 matches.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

29 - Cuba
23 - Colombia
14 - Vietnam
10 - Philippines
9 - El Salvador
9 - Chad
9 - Guam
8 - Liberia
8 - Korea DPR
7 - Rwanda
7 - CuraƧao
7 - Nicaragua

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (19 September 2014)

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.

Friday, September 12, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (12 September 2014)

I've received comments and e-mails about 2018 WCQ pots for UEFA. "When will you do the sims?"

As usual with competiton/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.


FIFA Ranking: September 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 September.

Four matches left - the finals of the Copa Centroamericana and a friendly.

13/09 Honduras - Nicaragua
13/09 El Salvador - Panama
13/09 Guatemala - Costa Rica
14/09 Indonesia - Malaysia

Friday, September 5, 2014

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (5 September 2014)

Updated to include the 10000 points - thanks Ed.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

I've already included the 2016 campaign. That's why for instance Germany have only 31135 points.