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Wednesday, December 19, 2012

FIFA Ranking: January 2013 probable ranking

Next update: 11 January 2013. 

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Not many changes expected. Cuba will rise again, as the final of the Caribbean Cup will be included in this month's calculation.

Ecuador will improve their best ever ranking - they will be 12th next month.

The January 2013 ranking will be used to compute the points for the 6 February 2013 matches.

FIFA Ranking: January 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the January 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: January 2013 preview

Next update: 11 January 2013.


Most points gained (worst case scenario):

44 - Cuba
30 - Equatorial Guinea
27 - Uzbekistan
26 - El Salvador
22 - Congo DR
19 - Libya
18 - Belize
16 - Paraguay
16 - Syria
12 - Sudan
 
Most points dropped (best case scenario):

-63 - Mali
-37 - Algeria
-32 - Sao Tome e Principe
-28 - Benin
-26 - United Arab Emirates
-24 - Trinidad and Tobago
-23 - Zambia
-19 - Chile
-17 - Egypt
-16 - Senegal


December 2012: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Syria 144 86 58
South Sudan 199 142 57
Fiji 169 122 47
Mauritania 206 163 43
Saudi Arabia 126 84 42
China PR 88 51 37
Bahrain 119 83 36
Korea DPR 99 64 35
Eritrea 196 161 35
New Zealand 91 57 34


Friday, December 14, 2012

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.

I've used 16 December as deadline for matches. 17 teams can still change their totals:

Team - Minimum Points - Maximum Points - Worst possible rank - Best possible rank

Haiti 602 734 46 33
Poland 528 553 60 55
Iran 522 532 62 58
Trinidad and Tobago 483 561 72 55
FYR Macedonia 436 480 81 74
Angola 425 436 85 81
Jordan 364 373 99 94
Oman 361 369 99 94
Cuba 278 395 118 90
Saudi Arabia 264 282 127 116
Kuwait 263 281 127 116
Bahrain 260 275 127 118
Lebanon 259 274 127 119
Gambia 186 248 144 132
Syria 179 220 145 139
Palestine 152 168 153 149
Yemen 108 158 164 152

In the table below, the values used for these teams are the minimum possible.

Friday, December 7, 2012

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable ranking (IV)

Next update: 14 December 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Couple of things will happen (not depending on probable results):

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 probable results (IV)

Here are the probable results used for the December 2012 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: December 2012 preview (IV)

Next update: 14 December 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 December.

The top 21 teams are already set.

Haiti could climb to 22nd, Dominican Republic to 33rd.


Best teams to play against on 6 February 2013

I've used probable results for the 2012 Caribbean Cup and a couple of January friendlies.

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

Only teams that would bring at least 200 points for an OFC opponent: