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Friday, March 29, 2013

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding based on generated results (29 March 2013)

Since I already have the results generated using the Elo ratings for the remaining 2014 World Cup qualifiers, I thought I should post them in case anyone is interested.

It doesn't include the play-offs, obviously.

Wins are considered to be 1 - 0, draws 0 - 0.

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (29 March 2013)

Next update: March / April 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.

The qualifying format is already known (but things might change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding based on generated results (29 March 2013)

I've generated the results for the 392 matches between now and 15 October 2013 using the Elo ratings. I'm well aware actual results could be wildly different. Another thing to take into account: teams will most likely scheduled friendlies for the remaining available FIFA dates and this will affect their final ranking.

Somewhere in the not so distant future, I'll start doing simulations for the remaining matches.

For the Northern Ireland - Russia qualifier I've used 11 June as the new date, but when FIFA announce the official date I'll use that instead.

Based on these generated results, African group I and the play-off spots in CONCACAF and CONMEBOL would be decided on goal difference.


Here's the breakdown by confederation:

FIFA Ranking: April 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 April 2013.

Only one match left: 6 April Bolivia vs. Brazil (friendly).

This is how the totals could change for these two teams:

Brazil (L: 879, D: 889, W: 909)
Bolivia (L: 537, D: 553, W: 586)

In the table below the values displayed for these teams are the lowest possible, so even if the lose, their totals won't drop.

Croatia move an impressive 5 places to reach 4th. Their best ranking was 3rd in January 1999.

Brazil will drop to at least 19th - their worst ever ranking. If they don't win against Bolivia they will drop out of the top 20, to 21st.




Friday, March 22, 2013

FIFA announce 2014 / 2018 World Cup draw dates

According to this FIFA.com article, the final draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup will take place at Costa do Sauipe in Bahia at 13.00 local time (17.00 CET) on 6 December 2013, while the preliminary draw for the 2018 FIFA World Cup will take place in Saint Petersburg on either 24 or 25 July 2015.

Related articles:

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding based on generated results (22 March 2013)

As promised, here's a look at the 2014 World Cup seeding for the final draw and European play-offs based on results generated using the Elo Ratings.

I've generated the results for the 491 matches between now and 15 October 2013. I'm well aware actual results could be wildly different. Another thing to take into account: teams will most likely scheduled friendlies for the remaining available FIFA dates and this will affect their final ranking.

The outcome could be a bit suprising for some.

Groups D, I and J in Africa and group G in UEFA seem set for a photo finish, while Uzbekistan look destined to make their World Cup debut.

Here's the breakdown by confederation:

March 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

South Sudan 200 140 60
Syria 134 79 55
Fiji 175 121 54
China PR 109 59 50
Korea DPR 102 57 45
United Arab Emirates 98 57 41
Kuwait 113 73 40
Iraq 94 55 39
Guinea-Bissau 183 146 37
Eritrea 197 163 34

Friday, March 15, 2013

FIFA Ranking: April 2013 probable ranking

Next update: 22 or 29 March 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 April 2013.

There will no less than 128 matches this month.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results:

Colombia will climb to 4th, Mexico will be 10th, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will climb around 50 places, Turkmenistan - 32, Cameroon, Senegal, Equatorial Guinea, China PR and Slovenia - 15 or more, Poland, Egypt, Morocco, Scotland and Turkey - 10 or more, while Bolivia will drop 29 places, Northern Ireland 24, Georgia - 17, Solomon Islands, Cape Verde Islands, Dominican Republic, Bulgaria, Albania and Korea DPR - 10 or more.


FIFA Ranking: April 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the April 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: April 2013 preview

Next update: 22 or 29 March 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 April 2013.

There will no less than 128 matches this month.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

29 - Tajikistan
23 - Nepal
20 - Afghanistan
18 - Bangladesh
16 - Equatorial Guinea
16 - Maldives
11 - Gambia
11 - Sri Lanka
10 - Liechtenstein
8 - El Salvador
8 - Guatemala
8 - Iraq
8 - St. Vincent and the Grenadines
8 - Burundi
8 - Myanmar