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Friday, March 15, 2013

FIFA Ranking: April 2013 probable ranking

Next update: 22 or 29 March 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 April 2013.

There will no less than 128 matches this month.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results:

Colombia will climb to 4th, Mexico will be 10th, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will climb around 50 places, Turkmenistan - 32, Cameroon, Senegal, Equatorial Guinea, China PR and Slovenia - 15 or more, Poland, Egypt, Morocco, Scotland and Turkey - 10 or more, while Bolivia will drop 29 places, Northern Ireland 24, Georgia - 17, Solomon Islands, Cape Verde Islands, Dominican Republic, Bulgaria, Albania and Korea DPR - 10 or more.


Probable April 2013 rank - Team - Probable April 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1569 0 -41
2 Germany 1428 0 -45
3 Argentina 1355 0 46
4 Colombia 1272 2 113
5 Portugal 1202 2 69
6 England 1192 -2 18
7 Croatia 1191 2 111
8 Italy 1106 -3 -67
9 Netherlands 1093 -1 -13
10 Mexico 1071 5 76
11 Ecuador 1056 0 19
12 Russia 1054 -2 -10
13 Uruguay 1036 3 86
14 Greece 1018 -2 -15
15 Côte d'Ivoire 1008 -2 -14
16 Switzerland 1001 -2 -18
17 Brazil 957 1 49
18 Belgium 953 1 61
19 Czech Republic 917 8 108
20 Sweden 916 1 67
21 France 914 -4 -7
22 Ghana 874 -2 -9
23 Denmark 865 2 51
24 Norway 855 5 71
25 Chile 830 -3 1
26 Japan 827 0 16
27 Mali 826 -3 11
28 Bosnia-Herzegovina 802 -5 -23
29 Nigeria 776 1 1
30 USA 752 3 19
31 Romania 746 0 -22
32 Algeria 735 2 13
33 Montenegro 728 -5 -62
34 Hungary 710 -2 -42
35 Turkey 699 10 83
36 Peru 678 5 54
37 Republic of Ireland 674 3 47
38 Panama 663 3 39
39 Serbia 659 -4 2
40 Australia 654 -1 20
41 Slovenia 650 15 83
42 Zambia 649 -6 6
43 Tunisia 647 1 28
44 Korea Republic 634 3 33
45 Costa Rica 606 8 29
46 Paraguay 601 -8 -39
47 Poland 600 14 71
47 Ukraine 600 1 2
49 Burkina Faso 587 1 -1
50 Slovakia 585 5 11
51 Jamaica 564 3 -12
52 Venezuela 562 -9 -60
53 Honduras 557 -4 -35
54 Scotland 556 12 55
55 Haiti 552 -4 -32
56 South Africa 548 4 17
57 Uzbekistan 540 2 4
58 Bulgaria 539 -12 -76
59 Iran 538 -2 -2
60 Cameroon 533 19 80
61 Central African Republic 528 -9 -53
62 Sierra Leone 517 1 0
63 Egypt 507 12 29
64 Senegal 505 18 71
65 Morocco 498 12 23
66 Bolivia 492 -29 -149
66 Israel 492 8 7
68 Belarus 488 -6 -36
69 Libya 486 -4 -21
70 Cape Verde Islands 482 -13 -58
71 Guinea 480 1 -9
72 Wales 477 -1 -14
73 Gabon 471 2 -7
74 Togo 470 -7 -30
75 Canada 468 -7 -28
76 Albania 467 -12 -43
77 Trinidad and Tobago 463 -8 -31
78 Uganda 449 7 22
79 FYR Macedonia 441 -6 -46
80 El Salvador 440 3 8
81 Congo DR 435 0 -2
82 Cuba 433 -4 -25
82 New Zealand 433 6 14
84 Austria 432 -5 -21
85 Armenia 421 -1 -10
86 Georgia 417 -17 -77
87 Equatorial Guinea 412 17 77
88 Estonia 411 1 3
89 Guatemala 401 2 8
90 Iraq 395 4 8
91 Finland 394 -4 -29
92 China PR 388 17 73
93 Congo 383 8 25
94 Benin 381 -8 -43
94 Jordan 381 -4 -13
96 Angola 378 -1 -3
97 United Arab Emirates 376 1 12
98 Niger 362 -5 -27
99 Iceland 361 -7 -31
100 Qatar 357 -2 -7
101 Zimbabwe 349 -1 -12
102 Latvia 347 6 28
103 Tajikistan 334 49 180
104 New Caledonia 333 -1 -3
105 Mozambique 330 2 9
105 Oman 330 0 1
107 Ethiopia 328 5 21
108 Turkmenistan 323 32 116
109 Dominican Republic 322 -13 -56
109 Saudi Arabia 322 -3 -5
111 Kuwait 311 2 17
111 Suriname 311 -1 0
113 Korea DPR 310 -11 -31
114 Malawi 303 -3 -7
115 Azerbaijan 301 1 15
116 Antigua and Barbuda 288 -2 0
117 Namibia 285 4 24
118 Bahrain 277 -1 6
119 Lithuania 272 -4 -15
120 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 271 -1 8
121 Northern Ireland 270 -24 -97
122 Liberia 266 -4 1
123 Burundi 261 1 8
124 Puerto Rico 257 -1 0
125 Guyana 248 0 0
126 Botswana 246 -4 -14
127 Tanzania 244 -8 -19
128 Vietnam 242 1 3
129 Belize 240 -1 0
129 Kenya 240 -3 -7
131 Rwanda 229 1 1
132 Lebanon 225 -2 -9
133 Sudan 224 -6 -17
134 Tahiti 221 4 6
135 St. Kitts and Nevis 218 2 -1
136 Syria 215 -2 -7
137 Moldova 214 -6 -18
138 Thailand 212 -3 -8
139 Afghanistan 210 2 20
140 Grenada 207 -5 -13
141 Cyprus 204 -8 -21
142 Philippines 201 3 28
143 Kazakhstan 199 -4 -13
144 Barbados 188 -2 0
145 Gambia 187 -1 11
146 India 178 -3 1
147 St. Lucia 168 -1 0
148 Palestine 164 2 3
149 Aruba 163 0 0
149 Kyrgyzstan 163 52 144
151 Bangladesh 161 6 18
151 Luxembourg 161 0 4
153 Myanmar 155 2 8
154 Liechtenstein 153 3 10
154 Malta 153 -7 -13
156 Maldives 152 5 16
157 Nicaragua 150 -3 0
158 Hong Kong 148 1 7
159 Sao Tome e Principe 144 -3 0
160 Faroe Islands 143 -7 -8
161 Solomon Islands 142 -14 -24
162 Bermuda 139 -2 0
163 Singapore 133 -1 0
164 Chad 131 -2 -2
165 Malaysia 128 -1 -1
166 Dominica 124 -1 0
167 Laos 118 1 0
167 Pakistan 118 4 21
169 Indonesia 117 -3 -4
170 Lesotho 115 -4 -6
171 Nepal 108 4 23
171 Yemen 108 -1 7
173 Sri Lanka 103 0 11
174 Vanuatu 102 -5 0
175 Mauritania 94 -3 0
176 Chinese Taipei 90 -2 1
177 Fiji 85 -2 0
178 Samoa 74 -1 0
179 Mongolia 67 -1 -5
180 Bahamas 66 -1 0
180 Cambodia 66 5 8
180 Guinea-Bissau 66 3 3
180 Montserrat 66 -1 0
184 Curacao 65 -2 0
184 Guam 65 -5 -1
184 Swaziland 65 -1 2
187 Timor-Leste 52 -1 0
188 Madagascar 51 0 2
189 Mauritius 50 0 2
190 Brunei Darussalam 46 -4 -6
191 Tonga 44 -1 0
192 Comoros 41 0 3
193 US Virgin Islands 39 -2 0
194 Papua New Guinea 38 -2 0
195 British Virgin Islands 34 -1 0
196 Cayman Islands 33 -1 0
197 American Samoa 30 -1 0
198 Eritrea 24 -1 0
199 Seychelles 22 -1 0
200 South Sudan 20 0 0
201 Cook Islands 16 1 0
202 Macau 14 -4 -8
202 Somalia 14 1 0
204 Djibouti 11 0 0
205 Andorra 9 -1 -2
206 Anguilla 4 0 0
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

9 comments:

  1. I've used fifa's ranking prognosis calculator for Albania's matches. The win against Norway gives Albania 596 points, but if you add a win for Albania's next friendly with Lithuania, it slightly hurts Albania's ranking, giving them only 584 points.

    Could you explain this one?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Albania's first time frame average is at the moment 3935.4 matchpoints in 10 matches = 393.54.
    A win against Lithuania tomorrow delivers 255 match points. This leads to a first time frame average of 4190.4 match points in 11 matches = 380.95, a loss of some 12 FIFA points.

    In general a friendly hurts your FIFA points total, because it delivers less match points than a country's first time frame average.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for the info, Ed!

    So the time frame average wouldn't get hurt by an unofficial friendly, then..

    ReplyDelete
  4. Yes exactly, you put your finger right on the sore spot, as we say in Holland :)

    ReplyDelete
  5. next months top 20 ranking (a few teams have some games still to play:

    1 1  Spain 1538
    2 2  Germany 1448
    3 3  Argentina 1292
    4 9  Croatia 1191
    5 7  Portugal 1163
    6 6  Colombia 1154 1272
    7 4  England 1135
    8 5  Italy 1117
    9 8  Netherlands 1093
    10 11  Ecuador 1056
    11 10  Russia 1038 1080
    12 13  Côte d'Ivoire 1008
    13 12  Greece 986
    14 15  Mexico 971
    15 14  Switzerland 967
    16 19  Belgium 953
    17 16  Uruguay 932
    18 17  France 914
    19 18  Brazil 879 909
    20 20  Ghana 874

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bosnia will have 896 so this is surely incorrect?

      Delete
    2. 1 Spain 1538
      2 Germany 1428
      3 Argentina 1292
      4 Croatia 1191
      5 Portugal 1163
      6 Colombia 1154
      7 England 1135
      8 Italy 1117
      9 Netherlands 1093
      10 Ecuador 1056
      11 Russia 1052
      12 Ivory Coast 1008
      13 Greece 986
      14 Mexico 971
      15 Switzerland 967
      16 Belgium 953
      17 Uruguay 932
      18 France 914
      19 Denmark 900
      20 Bosnia 896

      Two notes - I have eliminated the Russia-Northern Ireland game at the moment as I have not seen a new date.
      Brazil could move to 19 with a win in their friendly against Bolivia or 20 if it is canceled/not counted (909-889-879-897 (W-D-L-cancel)

      Delete
    3. The Bolivia - Brazil game will be taken into account for the April rankings, since it's on April 6th, and the deadline for the April rankings is on April 7th.

      The Northern Ireland vs Russia match will not count for the April rankings, when a new date is found it will count for the rankings that apply to that particular date.

      Delete