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Monday, December 10, 2018

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (10 december 2018)

The ten qualification groups for EURO 2020 were drawn last week. Now it's possible to simulate the complete match schedule, including the play-offs in March 2020 for the last 4 spots at the EURO's. These play-offs are a second chance for the group winners of the Nations League if they can't qualify directly by finishing first or second in their qualification group.

Monday, December 3, 2018

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (3 december 2018)

The group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 is finished. Yesterday was the draw for the qualification groups for EURO 2020 and today the draw for the Final Four of the Nations League. Finally all the ingredients are available for a complete simulation of the seeding for the European qualification for the World Cup 2022, bar the odd missing friendly of course.

I still think the July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.

The qualification format is not yet known in detail. I will give probabilities for three different formats with seeding pots consisting of 9, 10 or 11 teams.

Sunday, November 25, 2018

2021 UEFA Under-21 qualifying seeding (25 november 2018)

The qualifying campaign for the U-21 EURO 2019 in Italy/San Marino has finished and the draw for the final tournament has been made last Friday.

Next in December/January the draw of the qualification for the U-21 EURO 2021 will take place. The host for this tournament will be announced at the UEFA Executive Committee meeting in Dublin on December 2nd/3rd.

This draw will be seeded based on the U-21 NT coefficient ranking.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (20 October)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the second match day.
Simulation results after the first match day can be found here.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (24 November)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the third match day. The match British Virgin Islands - Bonaire was postponed to a later date.

Simulation results after the first and second match day can be found respectively here and here.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

FIFA ranking: November 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday November 29th. Only four matches to be played until then: the final round of the group stage of the South East Asian Championship 2018 this weekend.

This is how the points and ranks could change for the teams involved:

     min pts     low pos     max pts    high pos
Malaysia 979 170 984 167
Myanmar 1085 139 1090 138
Vietnam 1219 103 1224 100
Cambodia 970 172 975 172
Indonesia 1000 162 1005 159
Philippines 1173 115 1178 113
Thailand 1156 122 1161 118
Singapore 991 165 996 163

In the table below I've used their current points and positions.

Monday, November 12, 2018

FIFA ranking: November 2018 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches until November 25th, used to calculate the November 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) into the FIFA fixture-list at the moment of writing. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.