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Monday, November 12, 2018

FIFA ranking: November 2018 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches until November 25th, used to calculate the November 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) into the FIFA fixture-list at the moment of writing. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

Sunday, November 11, 2018

FIFA ranking: November 2018 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the November 2018 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on November 29th.

Lots of matches to be played this International Match Calendar window: 159 matches are scheduled with 136 currently in FIFA's fixture list.

Also check the probable November ranking.

FIFA ranking: November 2018 probable ranking

Here is the probable November 2018 ranking, to be published on November 29th. This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 136 currently scheduled matches in FIFA's fixture list. 
A total of 159 matches is scheduled to be played until the deadline of November 25th. 17 Scheduled friendlies are not yet included, as are 6 matches featuring non-FIFA members.

FIFA ranking: November 2018 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA November 2018 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

Thursday, November 1, 2018

The new FIFA calculation: a brief comparative analysis (II)

See here for my previous post about the new FIFA calculation method. It explains how I came by the set of numbers used here.

There are suspicions that the number of points to be gained per match in relation to the points gaps that will occur in the ranking when using the new method for a prolonged period, will result in too little chances to improve a team's ranking in an relatively short amount of time. The previous post showed that the climb in ranking positions for 'ín form' teams indeed was (much) slower than in the 'old' FIFA-ranking.

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

The new FIFA calculation: a brief comparative analysis

To get some more numerical insight in the effects of the new calculation method I've calculated the last 8 years of matches counting for the FIFA-ranking with the new calculation method.

Starting values for all matches from May 24th 2010 were determined, based on the May 2010 FIFA ranking positions, in the same way as was done by FIFA last Summer: the first team gets 1600 points (number one Brazil's actual FIFA rating at the time was 1611), the next team gets 4 points less. Teams on the same position get the same starting value.
All International Match Calendar windows from 2010 onwards were determined to correctly apply the I-factor of 10 for friendlies falling inside such a window.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

2021 UEFA Under-21 qualifying seeding

Since I've been asked about it:

Only two play-offs are to be played in November 2018 to complete the 12-team field for the U-21 EURO 2019. Those play-offs are held between Greece and Austria and between Poland and Portugal.

These four play-off matches will count for the coefficient ranking used to seed the U-21's for the draw of the qualification for the U-21 EURO 2021 next December/January. I couldn't find an announcement of the appointed host for this tournament yet.