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Check the Important info page for latest updates! (8 April 2023)

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2023 10.000 simulations

This Summer the only continental showdown to be played is the Gold Cup 2023. From the Nations League 2023 group stage 12 teams have qualified and Qatar is once again the strange guest, or should I say well-rewarded sponsor? The last three participants are determined in three paths of one-off play-off matches (two semi finals and a final) to be played one week before the main tournament starts.

The USA is once again the host, although the first match of Canada in group D (yes, one match only!) is played in Toronto.

Monday, April 10, 2023

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (April 2023)

In March the first two match days of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started.

Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including the UNL Final Four and currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.

Wednesday, March 29, 2023

FIFA ranking: April 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish this first ranking of 2023 next Thursday April 6th. This final preview contains 262 matches, out of 284 matches played since December 19th 2022. Due to Brazil's unexpected friendly loss to Morocco, world champion Argentina is the new top dog, closely followed by France and Brazil.

Included in this ranking will be the final of a friendly three nations tournament in Nepal between host country Nepal and Laos, played coming Friday. The points of each team after this match, depending on the match result:

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

FIFA ranking: April 2023 probable ranking (II)

In the month of January three tournaments were played to a finish: the South-East Asian Championship 2023, the Gulf Cup 2023 in Iraq and the African Nations Championship in Algeria. FIFA will publish the next ranking only after the March window. Contrary to previous years there won't be an official ranking in the first week of February. Reason enough to publish an intermediate preview of the April ranking.

In the international match window in March the following matches are scheduled:

- match days 3 and 4 in qualification for the African Nations Cup 2024;

- match days 1 and 2 in qualification for the EURO 2024;

- the group stage of the CONCACAF Nations League 2023 is played to a conclusion;

- some friendlies.

Here is the probable April 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday April 6th.

FIFA ranking: April 2023 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results of all 209 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including March 28th, used to calculate the April 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since December 20th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.

In the first column is indicated if the match is included or not, according to my inclusion-method. You see after the match identification data, the I-factor, the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA in %. 

Sunday, January 29, 2023

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (January 2023)

Now the schedule for the UEFA Nations League 2023 Final Four is drawn, it's time to focus on the qualification for the EURO 2024 in Germany. There were 10 qualification groups drawn in October last year, 7 groups with 5 teams and 3 groups with 6 teams for a total of 53 participating teams. Germany as host is qualified automatically and Russia is banned for obvious reasons. Inexplicably, Belarus was allowed to participate though.

Thursday, January 5, 2023

FIFA ranking: April 2023 probable ranking

Yes, you read it correctly, FIFA will publish the next ranking only after the March window. Contrary to previous years there won't be an official ranking in the first week of February, even if there are three tournaments played to a finish this January:

  • the South-East Asian Championship 2023 started already in December with the group stage. Tomorrow the semi-finals start. Both semi-finals and final are played over home-and-away legs;
  • the Gulf Cup 2023 starts tomorrow in Iraq;
  • the African Nations Championship 2023 starts next week in Algeria. For African NT-teams consisting of players playing in domestic leagues only. Matches in this tournament will count for the FIFA ranking, not for the elo rating though.