UEFA Nations League 2020 simulations (July 2020)

UEFA is the first confederation to draw up a schedule of matches for National Teams in coming Autumn. After the postponement of the EURO 2020 to 2021 they still had to find room in the calendar for the one-off semi-finals and finals in the four paths to decide the last 4 berths in the EUROs. They found that room by stretching both October and November windows by one day to accommodate 3 match days in each window. In that way they could also maintain the already scheduled group matches for the UEFA Nations League 2020-2021 this Autumn. There's even room now for some of the postponed friendlies from the March and/or June window.

FIFA ranking: June 2020 final preview

FIFA postponed/canceled all NT-matches for the June window. The UEFA EURO 2020 and the Copa America 2020 were earlier already postponed to June next year.

Already looking forward to the Autumn: there's no confirmed information about the UEFA Nations League and the schedule for the World Cup qualifiers. I guess NT football is at the very end of the line when it comes to reinstating football matches, behind closed doors or not.

FIFA will publish the (completely unchanged) June ranking next Thursday June 11th.

Stay safe and healthy everybody !

FIFA ranking: April 2020 final preview

And then there was a pandemic that suddenly shut down all football for the foreseeable future....

FIFA last week postponed/canceled all NT-matches for the June window. The UEFA EURO 2020 and the Copa America 2020 were earlier already postponed to June next year.

FIFA will publish the April ranking next Thursday April 9th.

Stay safe and healthy everybody !

UEFA qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (March 2020)

Last week the groups for the UEFA Nations League 2020 were drawn. Now that also that schedule of matches is known (6 match days to be played this Autumn) a first peek can be offered at the probabilities for each UEFA team to land in each pot for the draw of the UEFA qualification groups for the World Cup 2022. This draw will take place on November 29th and the teams will be seeded according to the FIFA November 2020 ranking. There will be 10 groups (5 of 5 teams and 5 of 6 teams) drawn.

FIFA ranking: April 2020 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA April 2020 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: April 2020 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the April 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on April 9th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: April 2020 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including April 5th, used to calculate the April 2020 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
Also the already played matches since February 16th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.