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Saturday, February 15, 2020

FIFA ranking: February 2020 final preview

FIFA will publish the first ranking of this year next Thursday February 20th.

Not much happened last months: the friendly Bangabandhu Cup was played in Bangladesh and a few other friendlies were played. 

Result of all the efforts of Canada and El Salvador is still a 12-point lead for El Salvador in the fight for the 6th CONCACAF-spot in the ranking. 
Biggest points-exchange (2.7 points) was in the final group match of the East Asian Championship between Korea Republic and Japan, won by Korea Republic with 1:0. With that they secured their third consecutive cup win in East Asia and fifth overall since the first edition of this bi-annual championship in 2003.

Sunday, January 12, 2020

FIFA ranking: February 2020 probable results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA February 2020 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.
Also the already played matches since December 16th, (probably) counting for the February ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: February 2020 probable ranking

These are quiet times in international football. Only the final matchday of the East Asian Championship 2019 and a few friendlies are played since the December 2019 ranking. The Bangabandhu Cup in Bangladesh (counting as friendlies) and some more friendlies are scheduled.

But there's something to spice it up: the fight for the final place in the CONCACAF Hexagonal this autumn between El Salvador and Canada is already casting it's shadow ahead. At the moment there's only a 15 points gap between them in favor of El Salvador, but both have only friendlies to play between now and the July 2020 ranking to improve or maintain position. The July ranking will probably be used to seed the draw for the CONCACAF qualifying groups for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as there is no June 2020 ranking foreseen by FIFA.

Wednesday, December 25, 2019

Copa America 2020 simulations (December 2019)

Last week was the draw for the Copa America 2020, to be played from June 12th to July 12th next year in Argentina and Colombia. This is the first edition in a new format of 2 groups of 6 teams instead of the awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Now simply the group numbers 1 to 4 qualify for the quarter finals. There are again 2 guests, this time Qatar and Australia as the last two Asian Champions.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

Monday, December 23, 2019

Gold Cup 2021 qualification play-offs simulations (December 2019)

The composition of the two qualification rounds, to be played next March and June, for the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2021 was drawn two weeks ago. Both rounds contain four two-legged play-offs.

In the first round the 4 group winners of league C from the CNL 2019 were drawn against the 4 runners-up from the groups in league B. The 4 winners of these first round play-offs are then drawn against the 4 group numbers 3 from the groups in league A.
The 4 winners of the second round join the 12 already qualified teams for the Gold Cup 2021 final tournament.

Saturday, December 14, 2019

FIFA ranking: December 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the last ranking of this year next Thursday December 19th.

The ranking publishing schedule for 2020 has not been presented yet, but seeing the complete lack of matches with any importance in the coming months unitl the next International Match Window in March, I would not be surprised if the next ranking would be the April 2020 ranking. We will see.

This December ranking will be used to seed the draw for the second round in World Cup qualifying for African teams, scheduled on January 21st.

Saturday, December 7, 2019

EURO 2020 simulations (December 2019)

Now that the draws for the qualifying play-offs and the final tournament of EURO 2020 are made, it is time to take a detailed look to the chances of each country.

Here are the probabilities (in %), generated over 10.000 simulations. All match-results in each simulation are based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.