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Saturday, October 16, 2021

World Cup qualification simulations (October 2021)

The October window is completed. Time to update the simulations for the qualification of the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.

Denmark and Germany are already qualified. Several teams underlined their ambitions. Some others made mistakes that could be costly. Below you can see all the consequences in terms of chances to qualify.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers, the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup).


See here for an explanation and schedule of the qualification process and the simulation results after the September window.

FIFA ranking: October 2021 final preview

FIFA will publish the October ranking this Thursday October 21st. This final preview contains 161 matches, out of 165 matches played since September 13th. 


Only today's final of the South Asian Championship between India and Nepal to be played yet for this ranking.


Resulting points and positions for both teams will be:

India

Nepal

pts

pos

pts

pos

win India

1182,73

106

971,42

169

PSO win India

1181,48

106

973,92

169

PSO win Nepal

1180,23

106

975,17

168

win Nepal

1177,73

106

976,42

168


Elo predicts a straight win for India.

Saturday, September 25, 2021

FIFA ranking: October 2021 probable ranking

The FIFA October international match window starts October 4th. All confederations except OFC are still in full swing qualifying mode for the World Cup next year in Qatar. 


CONMEBOL and CONCACAF have a resp. two and one day extension to be able to accommodate 3 match days. CONCACAF plays MDs 4-6 in the octogonal. In South America the postponed match day 5 from March is played, besides MDs 11 and 12.

A big question mark hangs above the suspended match Brazil - Argentina from September: where is the room in the match calendar to resume/replay this match ?

In Europe also the Nations League 2021 Finals will be played in Italy with the four group winners of league A: France, Italy, Belgium and Spain. 

CAF and AFC continue their qualification group stage with MDs 3 and 4.

FIFA ranking October 2021: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA October 2021 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking October 2021: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the October 2021 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on October 21st.


Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: October 2021 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 162 currently scheduled matches up to and including October 17th, used to calculate the October 2021 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since September 13th, (probably) counting for the October ranking, are presented.

Sunday, September 12, 2021

World Cup qualification simulations (September 2021)

All confederations except OFC are now busy with their main group qualification stage.

  • UEFA finish their group stage in November. The 10 group winners qualify. The play-offs between the 10 group runners-up and the best 2 group winners from the Nations League 2020-2021 (finished third or lower in their group) for the remaining 3 berths are scheduled for March 2022, to be played as 3 knock-out paths with each path consisting of 2 single semi-finals and a single final.
  • CAF finish their group stage in November. The 10 group winners qualify for stage 3: 5 home-and-away play-offs, to be played in March 2022. The 5 winners of stage 3 qualify. In January 2022 the postponed African Cup of Nations 2021 will be played in Cameroon. The match schedule for this tournament is known and included in these simulations.
  • CONMEBOL finish their group stage in March. Top 4 qualifies, number 5 goes to the interconfederational play-offs, to be staged in the second week of the June 2022 window. The date for the draw of the pairing of confederations in these IPO's is yet unknown.
  • CONCACAF finish their group stage in March. Top 3 qualifies, number 4 goes to the interconfederational play-offs.
  • AFC finish their group stage in March. Numbers 1 and 2 of both groups qualify, numbers 3 of both groups play a single play-off in the first week of the June 2022 window to determine the AFC number 5, which goes to the interconfederational play-offs.
  • OFC's qualification format is still unknown. They will probably start (and finish) their qualification in the January 2022 window. Their final top dog goes to the interconfederational play-offs.