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Friday, September 12, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (12 September 2014)

I've received comments and e-mails about 2018 WCQ pots for UEFA. "When will you do the sims?"

As usual with competiton/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

FIFA Ranking: September 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 September.

Four matches left - the finals of the Copa Centroamericana and a friendly.

13/09 Honduras - Nicaragua
13/09 El Salvador - Panama
13/09 Guatemala - Costa Rica
14/09 Indonesia - Malaysia

Friday, September 5, 2014

EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (5 September 2014)

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

I've already included the 2016 campaign. That's why for instance Germany have only 27135 points instead of 45225.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

August 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the August FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent

The most popular opponent for the month of July were again Sierra Leone - best opponent for 51 teams. However, Aruba (46) and Iceland (44) were not far behind.

Best teams to play against in September

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.

FIFA Ranking: September 2014 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 September.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these results, Antigua and Barbuda, and Guyana expected to climb more than 50 spots, while Guatemala and Dominican Republic are expected to climb more than 40. Macedonia, Venezuela and Luxembourg will drop around 30 places.

In the top 50, Cape Verde Islands, Bulgaria and Wales would be the best movers, while Venezuela, Sierra Leone and Slovakia would be the worst movers.

FIFA Ranking: September 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the September 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins