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Friday, February 27, 2015

AFC member association ranking update (27 February 2015)

After the first match days in the AFC Champions League and AFC Cup.

No association has dropped out of the top 24 - those are the associations eligible to receive direct slots in the AFC Champions League.

More info about the AFC MA ranking.

Friday, February 20, 2015

FIFA Ranking: March 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 March.

Only two matches left, both friendlies between Bermuda and Grenada on 6th and 8th March. The top 147 is already set.

This is how the points and rankings could change for these two teams.

Friday, February 6, 2015

FIFA Ranking: February 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 February.

Only 4 matches left. The final and 3rd place match of the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations and two friendlies.

This is how the points and rankings could change for the 8 teams involved:

Friday, January 30, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): Official format and simulations

CAF have announced some details regarding the qualification format for the 2018 World Cup.

The competing teams will have to go through three preliminary rounds in order to bring the number of teams down to 20 so as to be able to constitute five (5) groups of four teams, where the first from each group will qualifier for the World Cup.

The preliminaries of the FIFA World Cup shall begin during the two FIFA dates in October 2015, given that the draws shall take place on 25 July 2015 at Saint-Petersburg in Russia.


FIFA Ranking: February 2015 probable ranking (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 February.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings:


FIFA Ranking: February 2015 preview (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 February.

14 matches remaining - the final of the 2015 AFC Asian Cup, the KO stage of the 2015 Africa Cup of nations (8 matches) and 5 friendlies.

This is how the points and ranking could change for the 20 teams involved:

Friday, January 16, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (16 January 2015)

As explained earlier, AFC have told me they will use the most recent FIFA ranking available at the time of the draw.

With the preliminary round draw taking place two days before the February FIFA ranking release, the pots are already set. I don't quite understand why they couldn't wait for another 3 or 4 days.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 16 January 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.