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Wednesday, November 22, 2023

FIFA ranking: November 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday November 30th. This final preview contains 189 matches, out of 200 matches played since October 23rd.

The last round of four group matches in the Pacific Games 2023 is to be played tomorrow and Friday and three of those matches will be included in the November ranking (Tahiti - Northern Mariana Islands won't be, for obvious reasons). The knock-out stage of this tournament will be included in the December 2023 ranking.

Saturday, November 18, 2023

Another way of ranking the international top scorers (II)

There came quite some reactions and suggestions on my first post about another way of ranking the international top scorers. I can only agree with the main criticism: the measure of how valuable the top scorer is, could be better contrived than by calculating the average elo-points of the opponent per goal scored. This measure indeed mainly indicated that some top scorers played mostly weaker opposition.

Some suggested to not take the average but just weigh the goals with some weigh factors. I agree, each goal scored should contribute -more or less- to the total score of a top scorer, not carry the danger that the total score got reduced.

Saturday, November 4, 2023

FIFA ranking: November 2023 probable ranking

Here is the probable November 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday November 30th. In the upcoming November window matches for the following tournaments will be played:

- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024 group stage in leagues B and C plays to a finish with match days 5 and 6. In league A the home-and-away quarter finals are scheduled. The winners qualify for the CNL Final Four in March 2024 and the Copa America 2024 next Summer. The 4 losers go to two one-off play-offs in March 2024 to determine the final two CONCACAF participants in the Copa America. For ranking calculation purposes I expect the new quarter final matches to have an I-factor of 25, same as the CNL Final Four matches;

- the qualification for EURO 2024 plays to a finish with match days 9 and 10. Both postponed matches of Israel from the October window are scheduled early in the November window;

- qualification for the World Cup 2026 continues with match days 5 and 6 in the South American group. Asia and Africa start with their group stage, playing match days 1 and 2. Eritrea seems to have withdrawn at the last moment. Fearing new bad publicity with players defecting after away matches they've chosen to not participate in the 10-match group stage. As a consequence they won't be ranked in the FIFA ranking in the foreseeable future;

- for the Pacific Games in Honiara on the Solomon Islands the 12 participants are drawn in 4 groups of 3 teams. The match schedule is not yet published. I've assumed a schedule to be able to incorporate the group stage matches in this ranking preview. The 3 OFC teams that were excluded in July from the FIFA ranking (Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga) will participate, so they will be ranked again in the November ranking.

- with all confederations in full swing very few friendlies are scheduled for this window.

FIFA ranking: November 2023 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 186 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including November 26th, used to calculate the November 2023 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since October 23rd, (probably) counting for the November ranking, are presented.

Saturday, October 28, 2023

Another way of ranking the international top scorers

Normally you don't see anything in this blog about individual players, because they are not my main interest in NT-football. It's about the national teams for me. But recently there was a request from a long-time reader about the ranking of international top scorers, in combination with the strength of the opponents against which they scored their goals.

Especially since Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo, the ultimate professional and prolific football player, but also the world's biggest phoney when it comes to being a team player, is breaking records, this topic is apparently hot. He's the leading all-time international top scorer with 127 goals from 203 caps. 

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

FIFA ranking: October 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish this ranking next Thursday October 26th. This final preview contains 170 matches, out of 181 matches played since September 18th.

One team reaches a new highest rank:

Kosovo (105 - 106 in June 2022)

Two teams fall back to their lowest rank:

Grenada (176 in December 2007)

Liechtenstein (200 in July 2023)

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10.000 simulations (October 2023)

Last week the match days seven and eight of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started. See for previous simulation results: after MD2, after MD4 and after MD6.