EURO 2020 simulations (December 2019)

Now that the draws for the qualifying play-offs and the final tournament of EURO 2020 are made, it is time to take a detailed look to the chances of each country.

Here are the probabilities (in %), generated over 10.000 simulations. All match-results in each simulation are based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (November 2019)

The match days five and six of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started. See here and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 and MD4.

EURO 2020 qualifying play-offs simulations (November 2019)

After the confusion about the pairing of play-off paths, necessary to grant play-off path winners who are also host in EURO 2020 their own pre-designated group, the draw yesterday was pretty straight forward.

FIFA ranking: November 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday November 28th.

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between October 20th and November 24th (Sunday deadline) the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-11-05 Malaysia - Maldives 2:1 (in Malaysia)
2019-11-23 Djibouti - Mauritius

In total 182 matches will count for this ranking.

FIFA ranking: November 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA November 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: November 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the November 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on November 28th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: November 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including November 24th, used to calculate the November 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
Also the already played matches since October 21st, (probably) counting for the November ranking, are presented.