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Check the Important info page for latest updates! (22 May 2015)

Friday, May 22, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (22 May 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 21 May 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (22 May 2015)

More info on the official format in the previous post.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 21 May 2015.

Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.

Friday, May 15, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup: A look at the AFC seeding

A bit overdue, but I've been quite busy.

Improving a team's FIFA ranking is rarely a last minute fix type of thing. As with Amplistan it involves long term planning.

Many of the AFC teams involved in the draw could have climbed to a higher pot with some planning in the year before the draw. However, I will only look at their March games.

May 2015: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the May 2015 FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent.

The most popular opponent were Equatorial Guinea (62), followed by Northern Ireland (50) and American Samoa (31). Wales were close behind (28).

FIFA Ranking: June 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 June.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

FIFA Ranking: June 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the June 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: June 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 June.

39 matches in total - most of them in the 2015 COSAFA Cup and a World Cup qualifier: Thailand vs. Vietnam.

Besides Mexico, Ghana and Northern Ireland no other top 50 teams will be in action before the June ranking is released.