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Friday, February 12, 2016

2018 FIFA World Cup CAF pot sims (12 February 2016)

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 February 2016.

This is how the pots look like (sorted by average pot over the 10000 simulations)

Friday, February 5, 2016

EURO 2016 sims (5 February 2016)

I actually ran the sims last Friday, but had no time to format the data.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula to run 10000 simulations.

FIFA Ranking: March 2016 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 March.

Apparently, FIFA have a mistake in the February ranking points for Congo DR and Burundi. The only explanation I have is the 15 Nov 2015 FIFA World Cup qualifier between these two teams was awarded to Congo DR, despite finishing 2 - 2 on the field. However, while this would solve the point differences, there has been no announcement on FIFA.com.

Ed found the announcement. However, the match still shows up as 2:2 on FIFA.com.

Friday, January 29, 2016

FIFA Ranking: February 2016 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 February.

6 matches left - all friendlies. 4 of them are actually the CHAN 2016 quarterfinals.

This is how the points and ranks could change for these 12 teams:

Friday, January 8, 2016

FIFA Ranking: February 2016 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 February.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: February 2016 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the February 2016 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings. I computed a separate CHAN Elo rating.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: February 2016 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 February. The probable ranking is here.

46 matches, 2 of them continental qualifiers - the 2016 Copa America play-offs. Most of the remaining games will be part of CHAN 2016.