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Thursday, November 18, 2021

FIFA ranking: November 2021 final preview

FIFA will publish the November ranking next Thursday November 25th. This final preview contains 138 matches, out of 145 matches played since October 18th. 


One team climbs to their highest ranking again:

Canada (40 first reached in December 1996)


One team drops to their lowest ranking again:

Liechtenstein (191 in July 2017)

Sunday, November 14, 2021

World Cup qualification simulations (14 November 2021)

The November window is halfway. UEFA and CAF stand for their final group matches where the remaining decisions will fall.

On request is here an update of the simulations for the qualification of the World Cup 2022 in Qatar after yesterday's matches.


Denmark and Germany were already qualified. Belgium, France and Brazil joined them last week. In these simulations also England and Argentina are 100% qualified now.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers, the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup). 

Saturday, October 30, 2021

FIFA ranking: November 2021 probable ranking

The FIFA November international match window starts November 8th. All confederations except OFC are still in full swing qualifying mode for the World Cup next year in Qatar. It's even crunch time for teams from Europe and Africa as they play their last two match days in the groups. 

In Europe the 10 group winners will qualify for Qatar while the 10 runners-up qualify for the play-offs in March 2022. The draw for these play-offs is November 26th.

In Africa the 10 group winners qualify for the third and final qualifying round: 5 home-and-away play-offs to be played in March 2022. The draw date for these play-offs is unknown yet, as is the seeding FIFA-ranking to be used in the draw.

Asia plays MDs 5-6 of 10 in the two final groups. North and Central America plays MDs 7-8 of 14 in the octagonal. South America plays MDs 13-14 of 18 in their group.

FIFA ranking November 2021: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA November 2021 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given. 


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking November 2021: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the November 2021 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on November 25th.


Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: November 2021 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 144 currently scheduled matches up to and including November 17th, used to calculate the November 2021 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since October 18th, (probably) counting for the November ranking, are presented.

Saturday, October 16, 2021

World Cup qualification simulations (October 2021)

The October window is completed. Time to update the simulations for the qualification of the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.

Denmark and Germany are already qualified. Several teams underlined their ambitions. Some others made mistakes that could be costly. Below you can see all the consequences in terms of chances to qualify.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers, the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup).


See here for an explanation and schedule of the qualification process and the simulation results after the September window.