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Thursday, January 17, 2019

FIFA ranking: January 2019 probable ranking update

Here is an update of the probable January 2019 ranking, to be published on February 7th. This preview is calculated with updated elo-predicted results for the complete knock-out stage of the Asian Nations Cup 2019.

FIFA ranking: January 2019 preview results update

Now the group stage is finished, here is the promised update of the previewed matches in the complete knock-out stage of the Asian Nations Cup.

Friday, December 28, 2018

FIFA ranking: January 2019 probable ranking

Here is the probable January 2019 ranking, to be published on February 7th. This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 59 currently scheduled matches in FIFA's fixture list, so including the complete predicted knock-out phase of the Asian Nations Cup 2019. Only 10 scheduled friendlies are not yet included.

A total of 69 matches is scheduled to be played until the deadline of February 4th.

FIFA ranking: January 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches until February 4th, used to calculate the January 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) into the FIFA fixture-list at the moment of writing. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: January 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the January 2019 ranking (without the knock-out phase of the Asian Nations Cup and other yet not scheduled matches). FIFA will publish the ranking on February 7th.

Most matches to be played in Asia: a few preparatory friendlies and the Asian Nations Cup in the United Arab Emirates in January. Also some, already traditional, Scandinavian mid-winter friendlies in the heat of the Middle East.

Also check the probable January ranking.

FIFA ranking: January 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA January 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

Saturday, December 22, 2018

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (22 december 2018)

The format of the Asian qualification for the next World Cup is not yet known in detail. Looking at the AFC match calendar for the coming years it seems that the format will be the same as for the previous World Cup:

  • 1st round: play-offs played in June 2019 (2 MD);
  • 2nd round: group stage played from September 2019 until June 2020 (10 MD);
  • 3rd round: another group stage played from September 2020 until October 2021 (10 MD);
  • 4th round: play-off to determine the AFC number 5 played in November 2021 (2 MD).

Intercontinental play-offs will probably be played in 2022.