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Monday, September 5, 2022

FIFA ranking: October 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 159 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including October 2nd, used to calculate the October 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since August 22nd, (probably) counting for the October ranking, are presented.

In the first column is indicated if the match is included or not, according to my inclusion-method. You see after the match identification data, the I-factor, the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo and according to FIFA in %. 

FIFA ranking October 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the October 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on October 6th.


Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: October 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable October 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday October 6th. This ranking will include the matches in the September window in the conclusion of the UEFA Nations League group stage plus a lot of (preparatory) friendlies for WC-participants all over the world. Also the Melanesian Cup will be played again -for the first time in 22 years- in Vanuatu.

The originally scheduled match days three and four of AFCON 2023 qualifying are recently postponed to next March because the AFCON 2023 in Cote d'Ivoire is also postponed from July 2023 to January 2024, again with the argument that football in July in the Tropics is not a good idea. Now this window is used to give the African participants at the World Cup the opportunity for some much needed interconfederational practice.

Monday, August 1, 2022

FIFA ranking: August 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on Thursday August 25th. This final preview contains 53 matches, out of 55 matches played since June 20th. There are no more matches scheduled until the deadline of the ranking.


Three smaller (regional) tournaments were played in Africa and Asia:

  • COSAFA Cup
  • East Asian Championship
  • first round play-off qualifiers for the African Nations Championship

Sunday, June 26, 2022

UEFA Nations League 2022/23 simulations (June 2022)

The June window saw 4 match days in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2022/2023. The remaining two match days will be played in the September window.

There were in league A some quite surprising results: notably France and England -although not playing with obviously weakened teams- performed well below par. On the other hand Hungary, Croatia, Denmark and the Netherlands performed much better than expected.

In league B the effect of Russia's suspension on the way the overall UNL ranking will be calculated is not published by UEFA. I assume the teams in league B finishing on positions one to three in each group are sorted in the UNL ranking on group results without the matches against the group number four taken into account. That way the results of the teams in group B-2 are comparable with the other teams in league B.

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

FIFA ranking: June 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on Thursday June 23rd. This final preview contains 286 matches, out of 320 matches played since March 31st.


Quite some movement to be seen because there was a lot of action around the globe this June window. Also in the top region of the ranking, because of Nations League matches, both in Europe and North and Central America, with surprising results.

Sunday, May 29, 2022

AFC Nations Cup 2023 qualification simulations (May 2022)

The qualification for the AFC Nations Cup 2023 is divided in two parts:

  • the Asian first and second stage in the qualification for the World Cup 2022 delivered 12 teams: the 8 group winners and the 4 best group runners-up (excluding host China) of the second group stage qualify. China was one of the four best runners-up;
  • the rest of the teams entered the separate qualification path for the remaining 11 berths in the 24-team AFC Nations Cup 2023: two play-offs in October 2021 to wittle the remaining teams down to 24 and a group stage with 6 groups of 4 teams. The 6 group winners and the 5 best group runners-up qualify.


China is as host, although they of course participated in the World Cup qualification, automatically qualified for the continental final. From the WC qualification part the 8 group winners qualified (Syria, Australia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Japan, United Arab Emirates and Korea Republic) together with the 4 best runners-up (Oman, Iraq, Vietnam and Lebanon).