FIFA Ranking: Teams in need of matches for the August 2009 ranking

There are 55 teams that will not have the required 5 matches in the last 12 months when the August 2009 FIFA Ranking will be released. For these teams, FIFA will basically add a number of "virtual defeats" equal to the difference between the number of matches actually played by that team in the last 12 months and the required 5 matches.

Only two of them will be in the top 100: Congo and Gambia.

29 countries managed to get positive results in the last 12 months, but they lose points because of the 5 matches requirement.

Country - Points lost - Probable August 2009 rank

St. Vincent and the Grenadines 255 151
Gambia                         204  97
Fiji                           162 101
Madagascar                     162 132
Vanuatu                        109 142
Sierra Leone                    96 125
Niger                           96 133
Liberia                         92 140
Congo                           52  89
Cook Islands                    51 187
Guam                            51 187
Tajikistan                      36 155
India                           34 156
Bermuda                         32 143
Chad                            30 126
Cape Verde Islands              27 115
Chinese Taipei                  22 172
Somalia                         19 168
New Caledonia                   17 138
Sri Lanka                       17 156
Maldives                        15 154
Hong Kong                       14 134
Belize                          14 178
Mongolia                        13 175
Tonga                           13 184
Afghanistan                     13 192
Kyrgyzstan                      11 160
Nepal                            6 176
Timor-Leste                      2 199

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CONCACAF teams (July 17th)

This morning I saw this post on Think it all in: Looking Ahead to World Cup Qualifying 2011.

Pompey Canuck tries, with some success, to do something similar with my 2014 World Cup seeding, but for CONCACAF.

There are a couple of mistakes in the article:

* Pompey Canuck got some parts of the FIFA ranking method right, but he forgot to divide the points won in each time frame by the number of matches
* The 13th team in the ranking gets a bye to the 2nd round, it's not random
* It's a very bad idea to play lots and lots of friendlies, especially against St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Turks & Caicos, Bahamas, Aruba as it will bring your average down

Anyway, here's the May 2011 FIFA Ranking with the usual explanations:

The preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup took place on November 25th, 2007 and used the May 2007 FIFA ranking (for CONCACAF).

Assumptions:

- CONCACAF will again have 3.5 spots
- CONCACAF will again use the same qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams

The May 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between May 2007 and May 2011. We already have the "0.2" and "0.3" parts (matches played between May 2007 and May 2009) - that's basically 25% of the final ranking and a bit of the "0.5" part (matches played between May 2009 and May 2010). A lot can and will change before May 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving CONCACAF teams: 2009 Gold Cup knockout stages, 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2010 FIFA World Cup, 2010 Caribbean Championship, 2011 UNCAF Nations Cup and plenty of friendlies.

This is the May 2011 ranking (for CONCACAF only) using matches played up to and including June 13th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to May 2009 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

 1 USA                            433
 2 Canada                         354
 3 Costa Rica                     342
-------------------------------------
 4 Honduras                       298
 5 Mexico                         293
 6 El Salvador                    215
-------------------------------------
 7 Panama                         208
 8 Jamaica                        200
 9 Haiti                          174
10 Trinidad and Tobago            116
11 Grenada                        115
12 Antigua and Barbuda            112
-------------------------------------
13 Guatemala                       90
-------------------------------------
14 Cuba                            87
15 Bermuda                         80
16 Barbados                        70
17 Suriname                        63
18 Guyana                          53
18 Nicaragua                       53
20 Netherlands Antilles            50
21 Puerto Rico                     48
22 St. Kitts and Nevis             38
23 Cayman Islands                  24
24 Belize                          22
-------------------------------------
24 St. Vincent and the Grenadines  22
26 St. Lucia                       13
26 Turks and Caicos Islands        13
28 British Virgin Islands          12
29 Bahamas                          8
30 Aruba                            7
31 Dominica                         5
32 US Virgin Islands                3
33 Montserrat                       0
33 Dominican Republic               0
33 Anguilla                         0

FIFA Ranking: November 2009 top 50

Explanation:

This is the how the November 2009 FIFA ranking would look like if

• No more matches would be played from July 13th to November 11th.
• The 5-matches rule wouldn't be applied

This post was basically published to help those interested in the 2010 FIFA World Cup seeding. As many of you know, the November 2009 is the last piece of the formula.

_________________________________________

By request.

Column order

Rank
Country
Points
Sum of 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5
Matches in the 1.0 time frame
Points in the 1.0 time frame

I didn't apply the minimum 5 matches rule for Russia, Croatia, Gabon, Scotland, Greece, Switzerland, Israel, Hungary, Cameroon and Burkina Faso because I'm sure they will have 5 matches by November 11th.

1	Brazil	1760	637.73	11	12345.88
2	Spain	1661	839.26	10	8218.58
3	Netherlands	1465	641.48	6	4938.98
4	Russia	1215	547.12	3	2002.50
5	Italy	1107	698.78	9	3671.90
6	Argentina	1100	589.19	7	3573.12
7	England	1087	534.08	6	3315.00
8	Croatia	1040	580.71	3	1376.50
9	France	1032	538.83	6	2959.23
10	USA	1015	387.73	15	9407.43
11	Germany	1010	731.01	6	1676.73
12	Greece	1002	456.47	4	2183.00
13	Côte d'Ivoire	955	389.59	5	2826.75
14	Switzerland	932	391.84	4	2160.00
15	Gabon	926	262.23	3	1991.98
16	Denmark	907	356.70	5	2753.50
17	Australia	903	377.73	8	4203.25
18	Northern Ireland	896	352.76	5	2715.00
19	Portugal	893	541.73	6	2106.70
20	Ghana	883	385.62	6	2985.20
21	Serbia	882	371.40	8	4083.00
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina	863	235.64	5	3136.85
22	Bulgaria	863	483.33	5	1899.00
24	Uruguay	841	400.67	6	2644.57
25	Chile	840	367.02	9	4254.22
26	Ukraine	818	417.39	6	2403.00
27	Ecuador	799	349.65	8	3596.37
28	Costa Rica	789	242.78	15	8191.07
29	Egypt	788	445.53	10	3423.08
30	Israel	769	498.59	4	1082.60
31	Colombia	753	318.50	6	2604.42
32	Japan	752	350.14	12	4822.76
33	Czech Republic	746	541.31	5	1024.58
34	Algeria	740	260.47	5	2397.43
34	Honduras	740	288.88	16	7222.03
36	Republic of Ireland	737	368.00	6	2212.25
37	Hungary	729	284.62	4	1779.00
38	Romania	714	443.12	5	1353.00
39	Nigeria	708	427.25	7	1965.15
40	Mexico	706	395.09	13	4047.57
41	Scotland	700	387.70	3	937.50
42	Canada	698	217.23	6	2886.68
43	Tunisia	678	282.88	6	2368.00
44	Cameroon	671	495.30	4	703.38
45	Burkina Faso	657	252.52	4	1618.83
46	Korea Republic	656	299.15	10	3565.33
47	Paraguay	632	457.40	6	1047.24
48	Poland	631	374.93	8	2047.78
49	Slovakia	626	304.76	6	1927.50
50	Venezuela	601	253.16	9	3129.92

2010 WC: Seeding formula based on qualification chances (8 June 2009)

Seeded teams for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa.

Qualified teams determined using Voros' qualification chances.

Korea DPR/Algeria/Gabon/Czech Republic/Honduras replace Iran/Egypt/Cameroon/Sweden/Uruguay.

 1 Brazil         59.7 29.3 30.3
 2 Germany        59.3 30.3 29.0
 3 Italy          56.7 27.3 29.3
 4 Spain          56.0 25.3 30.7
 5 England        51.3 26.3 25.0
 6 Argentina      49.0 21.0 28.0
 7 France         47.7 23.3 24.3
--------------------------------
 8 Netherlands    43.0 14.7 28.3
 9 Mexico         36.0 19.3 16.7
10 USA            34.7 13.7 21.0
11 Switzerland    32.7 15.3 17.3
12 Paraguay       30.7 11.7 19.0
13 Czech Republic 28.3  6.0 22.3
14 Ghana          27.0 13.3 13.7
15 Russia         26.7  3.0 23.7
16 Australia      25.7 11.3 14.3
17 Japan          25.3 13.3 12.0
18 Korea Republic 25.0 15.7  9.3
19 Denmark        23.3  7.7 15.7
20 Serbia         22.7  5.3 17.3
21 Greece         22.7  0.0 22.7
22 Cote d'Ivoire  21.7  6.0 15.7
23 Costa Rica     16.0  8.3  7.7
24 Tunisia        15.7  8.7  7.0
25 Saudi Arabia   13.0  8.0  5.0
26 Chile          12.7  0.0 12.7
27 Honduras        9.0  0.0  9.0
28 Slovakia        7.3  0.0  7.3
29 Gabon           6.0  0.0  6.0
30 South Africa    5.7  3.0  2.7
31 Algeria         4.0  0.0  4.0
32 Korea DPR       1.0  0.0  1.0

Top 7 + South Africa seeded.

The pots:

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Switzerland
Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, Mexico, Saudi Arabia
Pot 4: Algeria, Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Gabon, Ghana, Paraguay, Tunisia
Special pot: USA

An explanation regarding the special pot, see this World Cup seeding post.

Possible draw (using random.org):

Group A: South Africa, Slovakia, Honduras, Paraguay
Group B: Brazil, Serbia, Mexico, Gabon
Group C: France, Greece, Australia, Cote d'Ivoire
Group D: Germany, Czech Republic, Korea DPR, Chile
Group E: Spain, Russia, Japan, Algeria
Group F: Italy, Denmark, Costa Rica, Tunisia
Group G: Argentina, Netherlands, Korea Republic, Ghana
Group H: England, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, USA

FIFA Ranking: Australia July 2009 detailed point totals

The columns are as follows: Match date, Opponents' FIFA trigramme, FIFA match points for Australia.

"0.2 time frame"

03-Sep-2005	SOL	427.125
06-Sep-2005	SOL	427.125
09-Oct-2005	JAM	391.845
12-Nov-2005	URU	0
16-Nov-2005	URU	892.4
22-Feb-2006	BHR	688.5
25-May-2006	GRE	488.4
04-Jun-2006	NED	178.525
07-Jun-2006	LIE	202.575
12-Jun-2006	JPN	1672.8
18-Jun-2006	BRA	0
22-Jun-2006	CRO	640.1
26-Jun-2006	ITA	0

"0.3 time frame"

16-Aug-2006	KUW	669.375
06-Sep-2006	KUW	0
07-Oct-2006	PAR	163.785
11-Oct-2006	BHR	650.25
14-Nov-2006	GHA	149.6
06-Feb-2007	DEN	0
24-Mar-2007	CHN	318.75
02-Jun-2007	URU	0
30-Jun-2007	SIN	175.95

"0.5 time frame"

08-Jul-2007	OMA	321.3
13-Jul-2007	IRQ	0
16-Jul-2007	THA	711.45
21-Jul-2007	JPN	418.2
11-Sep-2007	ARG	0
17-Nov-2007	NGA	461.55
06-Feb-2008	QAT	714
22-Mar-2008	SIN	58.65
26-Mar-2008	CHN	255
23-May-2008	GHA	474.3
01-Jun-2008	IRQ	828.75
07-Jun-2008	IRQ	0
14-Jun-2008	QAT	745.875
22-Jun-2008	CHN	0

"1.0 time frame"

19-Aug-2008	RSA	107.95
06-Sep-2008	NED	543.9
10-Sep-2008	UZB	898.875
15-Oct-2008	QAT	777.75
19-Nov-2008	BHR	803.25
28-Jan-2009	IDN	119
11-Feb-2009	JPN	346.375
05-Mar-2009	KUW	0
01-Apr-2009	UZB	803.25
06-Jun-2009	QAT	225.25
10-Jun-2009	BHR	828.75
17-Jun-2009	JPN	1077.375

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	6009.395	13	0.2	92.45223
-3	2127.71	9	0.3	70.92367
-2	4989.075	14	0.5	178.1813
-1	6531.725	12	1	544.3104

Total: 885.8675641 rounded up to 886.

FIFA Ranking: August 2009 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the August 2009 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

03/Jul Canada - Jamaica X (Continental Final)
03/Jul Costa Rica - El Salvador 1 (Continental Final)
04/Jul St. Kitts and Nevis - Trinidad and Tobago 2 (Friendly)
04/Jul Honduras - Haiti 1 (Continental Final)
04/Jul Grenada - USA 2 (Continental Final)
05/Jul Nicaragua - Mexico 2 (Continental Final)
05/Jul Panama - Guadeloupe X (Continental Final)
05/Jul Egypt - Rwanda 1 (FIFA World Cup? Qualifier)
07/Jul Malawi - Swaziland 1 (Friendly)
07/Jul Jamaica - Costa Rica X (Continental Final)
07/Jul El Salvador - Canada X (Continental Final)
08/Jul Haiti - Grenada X (Continental Final)
08/Jul USA - Honduras 1 (Continental Final)
09/Jul Mexico - Panama 1 (Continental Final)
09/Jul Guadeloupe - Nicaragua 1 (Continental Final)
10/Jul Costa Rica - Canada 1 (Continental Final)
10/Jul El Salvador - Jamaica X (Continental Final)
11/Jul USA - Haiti 1 (Continental Final)
11/Jul Honduras - Grenada 1 (Continental Final)
12/Jul Panama - Nicaragua 1 (Continental Final)
12/Jul Mexico - Guadeloupe 1 (Continental Final)
18/Jul Costa Rica - Honduras X (Costa Rica PSO) (Continental Final)
18/Jul USA - Guadeloupe 1 (Continental Final)
19/Jul Panama - Jamaica X (Jamaica PSO) (Continental Final)
19/Jul Mexico - Canada 1 (Continental Final)
23/Jul Costa Rica - USA 2 (Continental Final)
23/Jul Jamaica - Mexico 2 (Continental Final)
26/Jul USA - Mexico 1 (Continental Final)
29/Jul Costa Rica - Venezuela 1 (Friendly)

FIFA Ranking: August 2009 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Next update: July 13th, 2009.

Probable August 2009 rank - Team - Probable August 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Brazil	1642	0	-30
2	Spain	1590	0	0
3	Netherlands	1379	0	0
4	Germany	1195	1	-12
5	Italy	1181	-1	-48
6	Russia	1161	0	0
7	England	1135	0	0
8	Argentina	1080	0	-11
9	France	1059	0	-23
10	USA	1053	2	70
11	Croatia	1031	-1	0
12	Greece	1001	-1	0
13	Switzerland	930	0	0
14	Serbia	925	0	0
15	Denmark	909	0	0
16	Australia	896	0	10
17	Portugal	881	0	2
18	Côte d'Ivoire	874	0	0
19	Ukraine	869	0	0
20	Paraguay	856	2	10
21	Uruguay	851	-1	-9
22	Czech Republic	850	-1	0
23	Bulgaria	839	0	0
24	Scotland	837	0	0
25	Israel	822	0	0
26	Chile	817	1	6
27	Romania	814	-1	0
28	Turkey	809	0	0
29	Cameroon	803	0	0
30	Gabon	789	0	0
31	Northern Ireland	784	1	0
32	Mexico	781	1	4
33	Egypt	778	5	24
34	Nigeria	773	0	0
35	Ghana	772	0	0
36	Ecuador	768	0	8
37	Costa Rica	759	-7	-30
38	Republic of Ireland	758	-1	0
39	Japan	729	1	7
40	Poland	706	1	0
41	Sweden	702	1	0
42	Slovakia	687	1	0
43	Hungary	681	1	0
44	Bosnia-Herzegovina	680	1	0
45	Colombia	668	1	-7
46	Honduras	667	-7	-86
47	Algeria	661	0	0
48	Korea Republic	626	0	-8
49	Tunisia	614	0	0
50	Norway	606	0	0
51	Burkina Faso	598	0	0
52	Finland	593	0	0
53	FYR Macedonia	589	0	0
54	Morocco	570	1	0
55	Latvia	563	1	0
56	Guinea	562	1	0
56	Venezuela	562	-2	-22
58	Mali	551	1	0
59	Lithuania	545	1	0
60	Iran	542	-2	-17
61	Slovenia	539	1	0
62	Belgium	533	1	0
63	Bolivia	522	1	1
64	Saudi Arabia	519	-3	-23
65	Bahrain	501	1	6
66	Wales	494	1	0
67	Austria	493	1	0
67	Jamaica	493	-2	-26
69	Trinidad and Tobago	478	3	17
70	Togo	468	1	0
71	South Africa	449	-1	-25
72	Cyprus	445	1	0
73	Belarus	444	1	0
74	Libya	441	1	3
74	Uganda	441	1	3
76	Zambia	425	1	5
77	Uzbekistan	412	2	10
78	Oman	411	0	-2
78	Panama	411	-9	-67
80	Mozambique	401	2	7
81	Benin	400	-1	0
82	Senegal	399	-1	0
83	Qatar	397	3	17
84	Korea DPR	395	-1	2
85	Moldova	389	-1	0
86	Cuba	383	-1	0
87	El Salvador	380	3	4
88	Congo	378	1	0
88	Peru	378	-2	-2
90	Sudan	367	1	0
91	Iceland	358	2	0
92	Canada	356	0	-4
93	Syria	351	3	5
94	Tanzania	350	3	5
95	Albania	347	0	0
96	Montenegro	339	2	0
97	Congo DR	338	5	6
98	Gambia	337	1	0
99	New Zealand	336	1	0
100	Fiji	333	1	0
101	Angola	331	2	2
102	Iraq	330	-8	-25
103	Georgia	326	1	0
103	Namibia	326	12	32
105	Kenya	325	0	0
106	Grenada	324	-18	-55
107	Barbados	320	0	0
108	Guatemala	316	1	3
109	Antigua and Barbuda	312	-4	-13
109	China PR	312	-1	-5
109	Malawi	312	1	0
112	Suriname	309	-1	0
113	Estonia	308	-1	0
114	Cape Verde Islands	296	0	0
115	Kuwait	293	3	5
116	Rwanda	288	-3	-10
117	Thailand	287	0	-3
118	Luxembourg	284	1	0
119	Zimbabwe	280	-3	-12
120	Guyana	269	0	21
121	Haiti	247	-1	-1
122	Jordan	245	0	2
123	Armenia	243	-1	0
124	United Arab Emirates	242	-2	-1
125	Sierra Leone	241	0	0
126	Chad	233	0	0
127	Singapore	228	0	0
128	Burundi	220	1	0
129	Equatorial Guinea	219	1	0
130	Kazakhstan	208	3	4
131	Madagascar	203	-3	-24
132	Botswana	199	2	-3
133	Niger	187	3	0
134	Hong Kong	186	3	0
135	Indonesia	185	-3	-21
136	Ethiopia	178	2	1
137	Azerbaijan	175	2	0
138	New Caledonia	168	11	26
139	Nicaragua	165	-4	-30
140	Liberia	161	2	0
141	Yemen	159	3	2
142	Vanuatu	152	-1	-11
143	Bermuda	150	3	0
144	Vietnam	149	-13	-66
145	Turkmenistan	143	6	5
146	Malta	140	4	0
147	Myanmar	139	8	10
148	Lebanon	138	3	0
149	St. Kitts and Nevis	135	-4	-16
150	Liechtenstein	133	3	0
150	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	133	3	0
152	Swaziland	120	-10	-41
153	Malaysia	119	4	8
154	Maldives	117	2	0
155	Tajikistan	116	-7	-31
156	India	112	-9	-36
156	Sri Lanka	112	6	11
158	Philippines	108	0	0
159	Eritrea	106	0	0
160	Kyrgyzstan	102	0	-3
161	Mauritania	99	3	0
161	Solomon Islands	99	2	-1
163	Faroe Islands	96	2	0
164	Lesotho	93	-3	-9
165	Netherlands Antilles	88	-25	-81
166	Puerto Rico	87	0	0
167	Pakistan	85	0	0
168	Somalia	82	0	0
169	Bangladesh	80	0	0
170	Cayman Islands	76	1	0
171	Laos	73	1	0
172	Chinese Taipei	70	2	0
173	Palestine	69	2	0
174	Cambodia	64	2	0
174	Samoa	64	2	0
176	Mongolia	61	3	0
177	Nepal	60	-4	-12
178	Belize	57	2	0
179	Bahamas	53	2	0
179	Seychelles	53	-9	-25
181	Turks and Caicos Islands	51	1	0
182	Brunei Darussalam	46	1	0
183	Mauritius	45	-7	-19
184	Dominican Republic	40	0	0
184	Tonga	40	0	0
186	Guinea-Bissau	38	0	0
187	Cook Islands	34	1	0
187	Guam	34	1	0
189	Djibouti	33	1	0
190	St. Lucia	32	1	0
190	Tahiti	32	1	0
192	Afghanistan	31	-5	-6
193	British Virgin Islands	30	0	0
194	Macau	28	0	0
195	Andorra	17	1	0
195	Bhutan	17	1	0
197	Dominica	12	1	0
198	Aruba	11	-3	-11
199	Timor-Leste	9	0	0
200	Comoros	8	0	0
200	US Virgin Islands	8	0	0
202	Central African Republic	4	0	0
203	American Samoa	0	0	0
203	Anguilla	0	0	0
203	Montserrat	0	0	0
203	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
203	San Marino	0	0	0