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Saturday, July 13, 2024

FIFA ranking: July 2024 final preview

FIFA will publish the July ranking next Thursday July 18th.

I have included the forfeited WC-qualifier Congo - Niger. There is yet no decision taken by FIFA regarding the postponed WC-qualifier Cuba - Cayman Islands, so I excluded that one from this preview.

This weekend there are still 3 matches to be played: tonight the third place play-off Canada - Uruguay in the Copa America 2024 and tomorrow the two continental finals, in the Copa Argentina - Colombia and in the EURO 2024 Spain - England.

Wednesday, July 3, 2024

FIFA ranking: July 2024 probable ranking (II)

Here is the probable July 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday July 18th. All results up until yesterday July 2nd are included. Still scheduled matches are: 


- EURO 2024, quarter finals and beyond;

- the Copa America 2024, the knock-out phase starting with the quarter finals;

- the last group stage matches in the COSAFA Cup 2024, plus the knock-out phase, starting with the semi finals.


The postponed WC qualifier Congo-Niger has last week indeed been awarded 0:3 to Niger, because of a no-show of Congo on June 6th in Kinshasa (Congo DR). This match is also included in this second ranking preview.

Thursday, June 13, 2024

FIFA ranking: July 2024 probable ranking

Here is the probable July 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday July 18th. At least, that's what I expect since FIFA doesn't publish a schedule of publication dates of rankings on their site anymore. It contains the matches in the upcoming three final continental tournaments and the last preparatory friendlies for teams from CONMEBOL and CONCACAF: 

- EURO 2024, starting tomorrow with host Germany versus Scotland;

- the OFC Nations Cup 2024, starting Saturday with host Vanuatu versus Solomon Islands. From this 8-team tournament New Caledonia has recently withdrawn, due to the ongoing political unrest in the French overseas territory;

- the Copa America 2024, starting June 20th with Argentina - Canada.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 103 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.

FIFA ranking: July 2024 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 103 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including July 14th, used to calculate the July 2024 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since June 12th, (probably) counting for the July ranking, are presented.


Wednesday, June 12, 2024

FIFA ranking: June 2024 final preview

FIFA will publish the June ranking next Thursday June 20th. I expect yesterday June 11th though as the deadline for this ranking instead of the normal June 16th.

I have excluded both postponed WC-qualifiers Congo - Niger and Cuba - Cayman Islands from this preview, because there's yet no decision taken by FIFA regarding these cases.

This ranking will be used as seeding ranking for the draw of the third stage in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2026, scheduled for June 27th.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

UEFA EURO 2024 simulations (May 2024)

The UEFA EURO 2024 will be played between June 14th and July 14th in Germany. It's a 24-team tournament in the now known format with 6 groups of 4 teams and with, besides the group numbers one and two, the four best group numbers three also progressing to the first knock-out round, the round of 16.


The complete tournament schedule plus already scheduled friendlies with UEFA teams involved in the June window are simulated.

Qualification World Cup 2026 10.000 simulations (May 2024)

In the qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 Asia plays the final two matchdays for their first group stage in the upcoming June window. The 18 group winners and runners-up of the 9 groups qualify for stage 3 of Asian qualification: another group stage with 3 groups of 6 teams to start  this Autumn, playing a full 10MD-long double round robin schedule to conclude in June next year. Draw for this stage will probably be done somewhere in July with seeding based on the June 2024 ranking.


Africa continues in June their 10 MD-long group stage with match days 3 and 4, while North and Central America and the Caribbean starts with the first two match days in their only 4MD-long single round robin stage 2 group stage.