2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (10 december 2018)

The ten qualification groups for EURO 2020 were drawn last week. Now it's possible to simulate the complete match schedule, including the play-offs in March 2020 for the last 4 spots at the EURO's. These play-offs are a second chance for the group winners of the Nations League if they can't qualify directly by finishing first or second in their qualification group.

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (3 december 2018)

The group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 is finished. Yesterday was the draw for the qualification groups for EURO 2020 and today the draw for the Final Four of the Nations League. Finally all the ingredients are available for a complete simulation of the seeding for the European qualification for the World Cup 2022, bar the odd missing friendly of course.

I still think the July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.

The qualification format is not yet known in detail. I will give probabilities for three different formats with seeding pots consisting of 9, 10 or 11 teams.

2021 UEFA Under-21 qualifying seeding (25 november 2018)

The qualifying campaign for the U-21 EURO 2019 in Italy/San Marino has finished and the draw for the final tournament has been made last Friday.

Next in December/January the draw of the qualification for the U-21 EURO 2021 will take place. The host for this tournament will be announced at the UEFA Executive Committee meeting in Dublin on December 2nd/3rd.

This draw will be seeded based on the U-21 NT coefficient ranking.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (20 October)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the second match day.
Simulation results after the first match day can be found here.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (24 November)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the third match day. The match British Virgin Islands - Bonaire was postponed to a later date.

Simulation results after the first and second match day can be found respectively here and here.

FIFA ranking: November 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday November 29th. Only four matches to be played until then: the final round of the group stage of the South East Asian Championship 2018 this weekend.

This is how the points and ranks could change for the teams involved:

	min pts	low pos	max pts	high pos
Malaysia	979	170	984	167
Myanmar	1085	139	1090	138
Vietnam	1219	103	1224	100
Cambodia	970	172	975	172
Indonesia	1000	162	1005	159
Philippines	1173	115	1178	113
Thailand	1156	122	1161	118
Singapore	991	165	996	163

In the table below I've used their current points and positions.

FIFA ranking: November 2018 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches until November 25th, used to calculate the November 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) into the FIFA fixture-list at the moment of writing. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.