FIFA Ranking: February 2010 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the February 2010 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

06/Feb Japan - China PR 1 (Friendly)
07/Feb Korea Republic - Hong Kong 1 (Friendly)
10/Feb Argentina - Jamaica 1 (Friendly)
10/Feb Korea Republic - China PR 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Japan - Hong Kong 1 (Friendly)
14/Feb China PR - Hong Kong 1 (Friendly)
14/Feb Japan - Korea Republic 1 (Friendly)
16/Feb Tajikistan - Bangladesh 1 (Friendly)
16/Feb Sri Lanka - Myanmar 2 (Friendly)
17/Feb India - Kyrgyzstan X (Friendly)
17/Feb Korea DPR - Turkmenistan 1 (Friendly)
18/Feb Sri Lanka - Tajikistan 2 (Friendly)
18/Feb Bangladesh - Myanmar 2 (Friendly)
19/Feb Kuwait - Syria X (Friendly)
19/Feb Kyrgyzstan - Korea DPR 2 (Friendly)
19/Feb Turkmenistan - India X (Friendly)
20/Feb Tajikistan - Myanmar X (Friendly)
20/Feb Sri Lanka - Bangladesh X (Friendly)
21/Feb Turkmenistan - Kyrgyzstan 1 (Friendly)
21/Feb India - Korea DPR 2 (Friendly)
24/Feb Mexico - Bolivia 1 (Friendly)
24/Feb USA - El Salvador 1 (Friendly)
24/Feb Kuwait - Bahrain X (Friendly)
24/Feb Tajikistan - Turkmenistan X (Tajikistan PSO) (Friendly)
24/Feb Korea DPR - Myanmar 1 (Friendly)
25/Feb Jordan - Azerbaijan 1 (Friendly)
27/Feb Myanmar - Turkmenistan X (Turkmenistan PSO) (Friendly)
27/Feb Korea DPR - Tajikistan 1 (Friendly)

FIFA Ranking: February 2010 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Next update: March 1st, 2010 - or sooner if needed.

Montenegro and Comoros to improve their best ever ranking.
Morocco to have their worst ever ranking.
Senegal to return to their worst ever ranking.
Serbia and Guam to return to their best ever ranking.


Probable February 2010 rank - Team - Probable February 2010 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Spain	1642	0	15
2	Brazil	1594	0	26
3	Netherlands	1324	0	36
4	Italy	1226	0	17
5	Germany	1208	1	35
6	Portugal	1201	-1	25
7	France	1171	0	54
8	England	1109	1	33
9	Argentina	1087	-1	5
10	Greece	1074	2	44
11	Croatia	1050	0	-3
12	Russia	1042	1	16
13	Serbia	980	6	64
14	Chile	971	2	16
15	Mexico	968	2	21
15	Switzerland	968	3	44
17	Egypt	967	-7	-102
18	USA	954	-4	-9
19	Uruguay	936	2	27
20	Cameroon	888	0	-26
21	Nigeria	879	-6	-77
22	Côte d'Ivoire	874	0	9
23	Australia	867	0	10
24	Ukraine	851	0	3
25	Denmark	846	1	19
26	Czech Republic	843	-1	15
27	Israel	821	0	-2
28	Slovenia	819	5	52
29	Ghana	818	-2	-5
30	Paraguay	815	-1	9
31	Bulgaria	813	-1	12
32	Slovakia	811	4	59
33	Algeria	804	-2	20
34	Norway	798	-2	26
35	Honduras	776	-1	17
36	Romania	774	2	29
37	Ecuador	761	-2	8
38	Colombia	757	1	21
39	Republic of Ireland	748	-2	2
40	Northern Ireland	747	0	18
41	Turkey	739	1	11
42	Sweden	737	1	10
43	Gabon	706	1	0
44	Japan	704	-4	-25
45	Costa Rica	701	0	2
46	Scotland	681	0	16
47	Latvia	662	2	28
48	Hungary	645	4	30
49	Bosnia-Herzegovina	644	-1	-1
49	Venezuela	644	-2	-2
51	Burkina Faso	638	0	22
52	Finland	635	2	59
53	Korea Republic	608	-4	-26
54	Mali	595	-1	-3
55	Tunisia	587	0	14
56	Austria	567	5	44
57	Saudi Arabia	555	2	17
58	Poland	553	-1	-14
59	Bolivia	546	-4	-27
60	Lithuania	530	2	8
61	Bahrain	512	-1	-18
61	Canada	512	-4	-55
63	Peru	510	5	39
64	FYR Macedonia	506	0	11
65	Benin	503	2	20
66	Cyprus	495	2	24
67	Iran	493	-4	-6
68	Belgium	490	-2	-1
69	Togo	483	1	15
70	Morocco	482	-5	-10
71	Montenegro	456	1	0
72	El Salvador	452	-1	-11
73	Zambia	449	0	0
74	Uganda	447	0	0
75	Uzbekistan	442	0	11
76	Wales	421	0	1
77	Jamaica	407	1	4
78	Panama	402	-1	-4
79	Belarus	400	1	3
80	New Zealand	398	-1	-2
81	South Africa	391	0	0
82	Malawi	388	0	4
83	Mozambique	382	-1	-2
84	Trinidad and Tobago	380	0	-2
85	Angola	379	3	8
86	Iraq	373	0	-2
87	Guinea	367	3	6
88	Haiti	363	7	16
89	China PR	355	-2	-18
89	Iceland	355	5	6
91	Qatar	354	-2	-16
92	Kuwait	351	0	-7
92	Oman	351	1	-1
92	Thailand	351	6	18
95	Senegal	347	-4	-12
96	Gambia	344	2	11
97	Albania	335	0	-1
98	Korea DPR	334	-13	-44
99	Estonia	332	5	17
100	Cape Verde Islands	331	0	0
101	Moldova	330	-5	-8
102	Syria	325	-2	-6
103	Armenia	320	-1	-1
103	Congo	320	0	0
105	Jordan	290	1	14
105	Yemen	290	0	-4
107	Rwanda	282	0	7
108	Tanzania	264	0	-2
109	Sudan	251	0	0
110	Namibia	249	-1	-2
111	Congo DR	248	0	0
112	Kenya	244	0	0
113	Vietnam	231	3	0
114	Azerbaijan	230	0	-6
114	United Arab Emirates	230	-1	-11
116	Libya	227	-1	-6
117	Zimbabwe	224	0	-5
118	Faroe Islands	222	0	0
119	Botswana	218	0	-1
120	Singapore	215	0	-2
121	Guyana	205	5	19
122	Ethiopia	204	-1	0
123	Antigua and Barbuda	203	4	19
124	Cuba	200	1	9
124	Georgia	200	-2	-2
126	Luxembourg	196	-2	1
127	Kazakhstan	191	-4	-10
128	Tajikistan	175	20	52
129	Guatemala	174	2	10
130	Fiji	167	-1	0
131	Grenada	163	2	5
132	Swaziland	161	6	9
133	Myanmar	159	8	15
133	Sierra Leone	159	-1	0
135	Bermuda	156	0	0
136	Indonesia	155	0	0
137	Equatorial Guinea	151	1	-1
138	Maldives	146	2	0
139	Turkmenistan	145	-5	-12
140	India	144	-10	-22
141	Barbados	136	-13	-35
142	Hong Kong	134	-5	-19
143	Suriname	133	-1	0
144	Chad	132	-1	2
145	New Caledonia	126	1	0
146	Burundi	123	1	-1
147	Lesotho	120	2	0
148	Lebanon	116	-3	-11
148	Malta	116	-4	-13
150	Liechtenstein	112	3	2
150	Nepal	112	2	0
152	St. Kitts and Nevis	111	3	5
153	Vanuatu	108	1	0
154	Pakistan	107	2	2
155	Sri Lanka	106	-4	-9
156	Madagascar	105	0	0
157	Malaysia	102	2	2
158	Nicaragua	101	4	9
159	Kyrgyzstan	98	-1	-5
159	Liberia	98	1	0
161	Chinese Taipei	93	1	1
161	Mauritania	93	0	0
163	Bangladesh	92	-13	-25
163	Eritrea	92	-1	0
163	Niger	92	-1	0
166	Netherlands Antilles	90	3	10
167	Puerto Rico	89	-1	0
168	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	86	0	4
169	Philippines	85	-2	0
170	Mongolia	61	0	0
171	Solomon Islands	60	0	0
172	Cambodia	56	1	0
173	Palestine	48	-1	-9
174	Seychelles	44	1	0
175	Bahamas	43	1	0
175	Comoros	43	1	0
177	Mauritius	40	1	0
178	Cayman Islands	39	1	0
178	Laos	39	1	0
178	Somalia	39	1	0
181	Samoa	38	1	0
182	Belize	34	4	1
182	Cook Islands	34	2	0
182	Guam	34	2	0
185	Dominica	33	-3	-5
186	St. Lucia	32	1	0
186	Turks and Caicos Islands	32	-12	-13
188	Macau	31	0	0
189	Tonga	28	0	0
190	Dominican Republic	26	0	0
191	British Virgin Islands	25	0	0
191	Brunei Darussalam	25	0	0
193	Djibouti	23	0	0
194	Afghanistan	20	0	0
195	Guinea-Bissau	19	0	0
195	Tahiti	19	0	0
197	Bhutan	17	0	0
198	Aruba	11	0	0
199	US Virgin Islands	8	0	0
200	Central African Republic	4	0	0
200	Timor-Leste	4	0	0
202	Andorra	3	0	0
203	American Samoa	0	0	0
203	Anguilla	0	0	0
203	Montserrat	0	0	0
203	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
203	San Marino	0	0	0

FIFA Ranking: February 2010 preview

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches up to and including February 2nd, 2010.

The February ranking will actually be published on March 3rd, but since it's the second ranking of the year...

Six friendlies and two minor tournaments will take place this month: 2010 East Asian Football Championship and the 2010 AFC Challenge Cup. All matches will be considered friendlies for FIFA ranking purposes.

Next update: March 1st, 2010 - or sooner if needed.

Germany overtake Portugal for 5th.
England will climb one place to 8th at the expense of Argentina.
Greece will return to the top 10.
Egypt will lose 102 points due to devaluation of results and will fall to 17th (that also depends on the result of Mexico - Bolivia).
USA could lose their place at the top of CONCACAF if Mexico get the same result against Bolivia as the Americans against El Salvador.

January 2010 rank - Country - January 2010 points - Minimum points - Maximum points

1	Spain	1627	1642	1642
2	Brazil	1568	1594	1594
3	Netherlands	1288	1324	1324
4	Italy	1209	1226	1226
5	Portugal	1176	1201	1201
6	Germany	1173	1208	1208
7	France	1117	1171	1171
8	Argentina	1082	1063	1087
9	England	1076	1109	1109
10	Egypt	1069	967	967
11	Croatia	1053	1050	1050
12	Greece	1030	1074	1074
13	Russia	1026	1042	1042
14	USA	963	940	954
15	Nigeria	956	879	879
16	Chile	955	971	971
17	Mexico	947	947	968
18	Switzerland	924	968	968
19	Serbia	916	980	980
20	Cameroon	914	888	888
21	Uruguay	909	936	936
22	Côte d'Ivoire	865	874	874
23	Australia	857	867	867
24	Ukraine	848	851	851
25	Czech Republic	828	843	843
26	Denmark	827	846	846
27	Ghana	823	818	818
27	Israel	823	821	821
29	Paraguay	806	815	815
30	Bulgaria	801	813	813
31	Algeria	784	804	804
32	Norway	772	798	798
33	Slovenia	767	819	819
34	Honduras	759	776	776
35	Ecuador	753	761	761
36	Slovakia	752	811	811
37	Republic of Ireland	746	748	748
38	Romania	745	774	774
39	Colombia	736	757	757
40	Japan	729	658	704
40	Northern Ireland	729	747	747
42	Turkey	728	739	739
43	Sweden	727	737	737
44	Gabon	706	706	706
45	Costa Rica	699	701	701
46	Scotland	665	681	681
47	Venezuela	646	644	644
48	Bosnia-Herzegovina	645	644	644
49	Korea Republic	634	580	634
49	Latvia	634	662	662
51	Burkina Faso	616	638	638
52	Hungary	615	645	645
53	Mali	598	595	595
54	Finland	576	635	635
55	Bolivia	573	546	596
55	Tunisia	573	587	587
57	Canada	567	512	512
57	Poland	567	553	553
59	Saudi Arabia	538	555	555
60	Bahrain	530	507	522
61	Austria	523	567	567
62	Lithuania	522	530	530
63	Iran	499	493	493
64	FYR Macedonia	495	506	506
65	Morocco	492	482	482
66	Belgium	491	490	490
67	Benin	483	503	503
68	Cyprus	471	495	495
68	Peru	471	510	510
70	Togo	468	483	483
71	El Salvador	463	452	481
72	Montenegro	456	456	456
73	Zambia	449	449	449
74	Uganda	447	447	447
75	Uzbekistan	431	442	442
76	Wales	420	421	421
77	Panama	406	402	402
78	Jamaica	403	407	451
79	New Zealand	400	398	398
80	Belarus	397	400	400
81	South Africa	391	391	391
82	Malawi	384	388	388
82	Mozambique	384	382	382
84	Trinidad and Tobago	382	380	380
85	Korea DPR	378	307	336
86	Iraq	375	373	373
87	China PR	373	345	401
88	Angola	371	379	379
89	Qatar	370	354	354
90	Guinea	361	367	367
91	Senegal	359	347	347
92	Kuwait	358	336	380
93	Oman	352	351	351
94	Iceland	349	355	355
95	Haiti	347	363	363
96	Moldova	338	330	330
97	Albania	336	335	335
98	Gambia	333	344	344
98	Thailand	333	351	351
100	Cape Verde Islands	331	331	331
100	Syria	331	319	338
102	Armenia	321	320	320
103	Congo	320	320	320
104	Estonia	315	332	332
105	Yemen	294	290	290
106	Jordan	276	270	290
107	Rwanda	275	282	282
108	Tanzania	266	264	264
109	Namibia	251	249	249
109	Sudan	251	251	251
111	Congo DR	248	248	248
112	Kenya	244	244	244
113	United Arab Emirates	241	230	230
114	Azerbaijan	236	230	252
115	Libya	233	227	227
116	Vietnam	231	231	231
117	Zimbabwe	229	224	224
118	Faroe Islands	222	222	222
119	Botswana	219	218	218
120	Singapore	217	215	215
121	Ethiopia	204	204	204
122	Georgia	202	200	200
123	Kazakhstan	201	191	191
124	Luxembourg	195	196	196
125	Cuba	191	200	200
126	Guyana	186	205	205
127	Antigua and Barbuda	184	203	203
128	Barbados	171	136	136
129	Fiji	167	167	167
130	India	166	131	224
131	Guatemala	164	174	174
132	Sierra Leone	159	159	159
133	Grenada	158	163	163
134	Turkmenistan	157	121	216
135	Bermuda	156	156	156
136	Indonesia	155	155	155
137	Hong Kong	153	134	254
138	Equatorial Guinea	152	151	151
138	Swaziland	152	161	161
140	Maldives	146	146	146
141	Myanmar	144	131	222
142	Suriname	133	133	133
143	Chad	130	132	132
144	Malta	129	116	116
145	Lebanon	127	116	116
146	New Caledonia	126	126	126
147	Burundi	124	123	123
148	Tajikistan	123	125	241
149	Lesotho	120	120	120
150	Bangladesh	117	88	157
151	Sri Lanka	115	103	149
152	Nepal	112	112	112
153	Liechtenstein	110	112	112
154	Vanuatu	108	108	108
155	St. Kitts and Nevis	106	111	111
156	Madagascar	105	105	105
156	Pakistan	105	107	107
158	Kyrgyzstan	103	92	178
159	Malaysia	100	102	102
160	Liberia	98	98	98
161	Mauritania	93	93	93
162	Chinese Taipei	92	93	93
162	Eritrea	92	92	92
162	Nicaragua	92	101	101
162	Niger	92	92	92
166	Puerto Rico	89	89	89
167	Philippines	85	85	85
168	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	82	86	86
169	Netherlands Antilles	80	90	90
170	Mongolia	61	61	61
171	Solomon Islands	60	60	60
172	Palestine	57	48	48
173	Cambodia	56	56	56
174	Turks and Caicos Islands	45	32	32
175	Seychelles	44	44	44
176	Bahamas	43	43	43
176	Comoros	43	43	43
178	Mauritius	40	40	40
179	Cayman Islands	39	39	39
179	Laos	39	39	39
179	Somalia	39	39	39
182	Dominica	38	33	33
182	Samoa	38	38	38
184	Cook Islands	34	34	34
184	Guam	34	34	34
186	Belize	33	34	34
187	St. Lucia	32	32	32
188	Macau	31	31	31
189	Tonga	28	28	28
190	Dominican Republic	26	26	26
191	British Virgin Islands	25	25	25
191	Brunei Darussalam	25	25	25
193	Djibouti	23	23	23
194	Afghanistan	20	20	20
195	Guinea-Bissau	19	19	19
195	Tahiti	19	19	19
197	Bhutan	17	17	17
198	Aruba	11	11	11
199	US Virgin Islands	8	8	8
200	Central African Republic	4	4	4
200	Timor-Leste	4	4	4
202	Andorra	3	3	3
203	American Samoa	0	0	0
203	Anguilla	0	0	0
203	Montserrat	0	0	0
203	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
203	San Marino	0	0	0

January 2010: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Central African Republic	200	132	68
Solomon Islands	171	118	53
Guinea-Bissau	195	142	53
Tahiti	195	148	47
Oman	93	55	38
Papua New Guinea	203	166	37
Syria	100	65	35
New Caledonia	146	115	31
Niger	162	132	30
Libya	115	86	29

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Luxembourg	124	169	-45
Gabon	44	87	-43
Algeria	31	71	-40
Burkina Faso	51	88	-37
Faroe Islands	118	154	-36
Northern Ireland	40	72	-32
Benin	67	97	-30
Bangladesh	150	180	-30
Sri Lanka	151	181	-30
Mozambique	82	111	-29

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Japan	40	17	23
Turkey	42	22	20
Iran	63	44	19
Sweden	43	26	17
Korea Republic	49	32	17
Saudi Arabia	59	43	16
Romania	38	27	11
Venezuela	47	36	11
Mexico	17	8	9
Honduras	34	25	9

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Gabon	44	87	-43
Algeria	31	71	-40
Northern Ireland	40	72	-32
Latvia	49	74	-25
Nigeria	15	39	-24
Cameroon	20	37	-17
Israel	27	41	-14
Ghana	27	40	-13
Slovenia	33	46	-13
Slovakia	36	48	-12

Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:

Japan - Northern Ireland
Turkey - Algeria
Iran - Gabon
Sweden - Latvia
Korea Republic - Slovenia
Saudi Arabia - Burkina Faso
Romania - Slovakia
Venezuela - Hungary
Mexico - Greece
Honduras - Israel

2012 African Cup of Nations: Seeding for the final draw (1 February 2010)

CAF Ranking system

The last three tournaments count towards the ranking (ACN 2006, ACN 2008, ACN 2010).

Points are awarded in this fashion:

7 - winner
5 - finalist
3 - semifinalists
2 - quarterfinalists
1 - teams eliminated in the group stage

Points from the most recent tournament are multiplied by 3, the next one by 2, the last one by 1.

If two or more teams have the same total, they will be ranked on the total number of points (3 for a win, 1 for a loss).

More info on the seeding system -> CAFOnline.com

    Team         ACN'06 ACN'08 ACN'10 Total Pts Goals
-------------------------------------------------------
 1 Egypt             7      7      7    42
 2 Ghana             1      3      5    22
 3 Cameroon          2      5      2    18
 4 Côte d'Ivoire     5      3      2    17
 5 Nigeria           3      2      3    16
 6 Angola            1      2      2    11
 7 Tunisia           2      2      1     9   15
 8 Zambia            1      1      2     9   12
 9 Algeria           0      0      3     9    7
10 Guinea            2      2      0     6
11 Mali              0      1      1     5    8  (8-9)
12 Senegal           3      1      0     5    8  (11-14)
13 Benin             0      1      1     5    1
14 Togo              1      0      1     4
15 Morocco           1      1      0     3    5
16 Gabon             0      0      1     3    4
17 Malawi            0      0      1     3    3
18 South Africa      1      1      0     3    2
19 Burkina Faso      0      0      1     3    1  (0-1)
20 Mozambique        0      0      1     3    1  (2-7)
21 Congo DR          2      0      0     2    4
22 Namibia           0      1      0     2    1
23 Sudan             0      1      0     2    0
24 Zimbabwe          1      0      0     1    3
25 Libya             1      0      0     1    1

If the top 14 from this table qualify (with Togo banned, Morocco are in the top 14), these would be the pots for the final draw:

Pot 1: Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Egypt, Ghana
Pot 2: Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Angola
Pot 3: Tunisia, Zambia, Algeria, Guinea
Pot 4: Mali, Senegal, Benin, Morocco

FIFA Ranking: January 2010 final preview

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches up to and including January 31st, 2010. Not so sure about Jamaica - Canada being included.

There was a slight mistake in the preview posted on Friday regarding maximum values for Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, Algeria, Jamaica and Canada because I forgot to multiply the match points by 0.85. That's why the values you'll see for these 6 teams in the final ranking table below are smaller.

Best movers:

25 - Yemen
18 - Gambia
17 - Malawi and Tajikistan

Worst movers:

-29 - Nicaragua
-21 - Burundi
-17 - Guinea

Best movers in the top 50:

14 - Egypt
7 - Nigeria and Ghana
4 - Gabon

Worst movers in the top 50:

-9 - Cameroon
-6 - Côte d'Ivoire and Mali
-5 - Algeria

Saudi Arabia overtake Bahrain for 4th place in AFC.

Egypt climb to the top of the African ranking, with Nigeria up to second. Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire drop to 3rd and 4th respectively. Ghana up to 5th, Algeria out of the top 5.

Three teams will have their best ever ranking:

Egypt (10th - 15th in January 2009)
Venezuela (47th - 48th in April 2004)
Montenegro (72nd - 73rd in November 2009)

Mongolia will return to their best ever ranking - 170th first achieved in November 2009.

Two teams will return to their worst ever ranking:

Tunisia (56th - first achieved in March 2008)
Tahiti (195th - first achieved in November 2009)

Four teams will have their worst ever ranking:

Romania (38th - 36th in October 2009)
Sweden (43rd - 42nd in July 2009)
Morocco (65th - 63rd in November 2009)
Guinea-Bissau (195th - 194th in December 2009)

January 2010 rank - Team - January 2010 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Spain	1627	0	0
2	Brazil	1568	0	0
3	Netherlands	1288	0	0
4	Italy	1209	0	0
5	Portugal	1176	0	0
6	Germany	1173	0	0
7	France	1117	0	0
8	Argentina	1082	0	-3
9	England	1076	0	0
10	Egypt	1068	14	236
11	Croatia	1053	-1	11
12	Greece	1030	1	14
13	Russia	1026	-1	0
14	USA	963	0	-17
15	Nigeria	956	7	108
16	Chile	955	-1	19
17	Mexico	947	0	16
18	Switzerland	924	0	0
19	Serbia	916	0	0
20	Cameroon	914	-9	-121
21	Uruguay	909	-1	0
22	Côte d'Ivoire	865	-6	-69
23	Australia	857	-2	-6
24	Ukraine	848	-2	0
25	Czech Republic	828	0	0
26	Denmark	827	2	7
27	Ghana	823	7	76
27	Israel	823	-1	0
29	Paraguay	806	0	0
30	Bulgaria	801	0	0
31	Algeria	784	-5	-39
32	Norway	772	0	12
33	Slovenia	767	-2	0
34	Honduras	759	3	21
35	Ecuador	753	2	15
36	Slovakia	752	-3	0
37	Republic of Ireland	746	-2	0
38	Romania	745	-2	0
39	Colombia	736	0	0
40	Japan	729	3	20
40	Northern Ireland	729	0	0
42	Turkey	728	-1	0
43	Sweden	727	-1	6
44	Gabon	706	4	46
45	Costa Rica	699	-1	-2
46	Scotland	665	0	0
47	Venezuela	646	3	0
48	Bosnia-Herzegovina	645	3	3
49	Korea Republic	634	3	9
49	Latvia	634	-4	-43
51	Burkina Faso	616	-2	-34
51	Hungary	616	3	3
53	Mali	598	-6	-64
54	Finland	576	1	-16
55	Bolivia	573	1	0
56	Tunisia	572	-3	-42
57	Poland	567	1	11
58	Saudi Arabia	538	5	28
59	Bahrain	529	1	5
60	Canada	527	-4	-46
61	Austria	523	0	0
62	Lithuania	522	0	0
63	Iran	499	1	-9
64	FYR Macedonia	495	1	0
65	Belgium	491	1	0
65	Morocco	491	2	14
67	Benin	483	-8	-49
68	Cyprus	471	0	0
68	Peru	471	0	0
70	Togo	468	1	1
71	El Salvador	464	7	51
72	Montenegro	456	2	0
73	Zambia	449	11	69
74	Uganda	447	1	-8
75	Uzbekistan	431	1	-9
76	Wales	420	1	0
77	Jamaica	418	4	15
78	Panama	406	-8	-63
79	New Zealand	400	3	0
80	Belarus	397	0	-9
81	South Africa	390	4	13
82	Malawi	384	17	58
82	Mozambique	384	-10	-78
84	Trinidad and Tobago	382	-2	-18
85	Korea DPR	377	1	1
86	Iraq	375	2	11
87	China PR	373	6	33
88	Angola	371	7	34
89	Qatar	370	-3	-6
90	Guinea	360	-17	-98
91	Senegal	359	-2	-2
92	Kuwait	358	12	57
93	Oman	352	-14	-58
94	Iceland	349	-2	3
95	Haiti	347	-5	-1
96	Moldova	338	-2	0
97	Albania	336	-1	0
98	Gambia	333	18	110
99	Thailand	332	6	36
100	Cape Verde Islands	331	-3	0
100	Syria	331	-9	-16
102	Armenia	321	-2	0
103	Congo	320	-2	0
104	Estonia	315	-2	7
105	Yemen	294	25	118
106	Rwanda	276	-4	-32
107	Jordan	275	4	20
108	Tanzania	267	-2	-23
109	Namibia	251	4	5
109	Sudan	251	-1	-17
111	Congo DR	248	-4	-23
112	Kenya	244	-14	-83
113	United Arab Emirates	241	-1	-7
114	Azerbaijan	235	0	-1
115	Libya	233	0	1
116	Vietnam	231	7	28
117	Zimbabwe	228	-8	-37
118	Faroe Islands	222	-1	0
119	Botswana	220	-1	1
120	Singapore	217	-10	-43
121	Ethiopia	204	1	0
122	Georgia	202	2	0
123	Kazakhstan	201	2	1
124	Luxembourg	195	4	10
125	Cuba	191	-6	-27
126	Guyana	186	1	-5
127	Antigua and Barbuda	184	3	8
128	Barbados	171	1	-10
129	Fiji	167	3	0
130	India	166	4	8
131	Guatemala	164	-10	-41
132	Sierra Leone	159	6	14
133	Grenada	158	5	13
133	Turkmenistan	158	8	19
135	Bermuda	157	7	19
136	Indonesia	154	-16	-52
137	Hong Kong	153	6	16
138	Equatorial Guinea	152	-3	0
138	Swaziland	152	-3	0
140	Maldives	146	-3	0
141	Myanmar	144	-1	2
142	Suriname	133	2	0
143	Chad	130	2	0
144	Malta	129	2	1
145	Lebanon	127	3	2
146	New Caledonia	126	1	0
147	Burundi	124	-21	-71
148	Tajikistan	123	17	36
149	Lesotho	120	1	0
150	Bangladesh	117	-1	-5
151	Sri Lanka	115	0	0
152	Nepal	112	0	0
153	Liechtenstein	110	1	0
154	Vanuatu	108	1	0
155	St. Kitts and Nevis	106	1	0
156	Madagascar	105	2	0
156	Pakistan	105	0	-1
158	Kyrgyzstan	103	1	0
159	Malaysia	100	1	-2
160	Liberia	98	1	0
161	Mauritania	93	8	23
162	Chinese Taipei	92	0	-1
162	Eritrea	92	1	0
162	Nicaragua	92	-29	-73
162	Niger	92	1	0
166	Puerto Rico	89	-1	2
167	Philippines	85	0	2
168	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	82	-16	-30
169	Netherlands Antilles	80	-1	0
170	Mongolia	61	1	0
171	Solomon Islands	60	1	0
172	Palestine	57	1	0
173	Cambodia	56	2	0
174	Turks and Caicos Islands	45	3	0
175	Seychelles	44	3	0
176	Bahamas	43	4	0
176	Comoros	43	0	-3
178	Mauritius	40	3	0
179	Cayman Islands	39	4	3
179	Laos	39	-1	-5
179	Somalia	39	-9	-25
182	Dominica	38	15	26
182	Samoa	38	0	0
184	Cook Islands	34	0	0
184	Guam	34	0	0
186	Belize	33	-13	-24
187	St. Lucia	32	-1	0
188	Macau	31	-1	0
189	Tonga	28	-1	0
190	Dominican Republic	26	0	0
191	British Virgin Islands	25	0	0
191	Brunei Darussalam	25	0	0
193	Djibouti	23	-4	-4
194	Afghanistan	20	-1	0
195	Guinea-Bissau	19	-1	0
195	Tahiti	19	-1	0
197	Bhutan	17	-1	0
198	Aruba	11	0	0
199	US Virgin Islands	8	0	0
200	Central African Republic	4	0	0
200	Timor-Leste	4	0	0
202	Andorra	3	0	0
203	American Samoa	0	0	0
203	Anguilla	0	0	0
203	Montserrat	0	0	0
203	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
203	San Marino	0	0	0

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (1 February 2010)

Detailed explanation of the seeding method.

There are 43 countries that have confirmed their participation. Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mauritania, Sao Tome e Principe, The Seychelles and Sudan can still do so, while Togo are banned for the next two editions.

The draw will take place during the final of the CAF Super Cup - on February 20th.

On Saturday I received an e-mail from a CAF official with a list of countries that hadn't yet confirmed their participation. Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mauritania and Sudan were not on that list, while Somalia, Djibouti and Cape Verde Islands were on the list, but they probably confirmed their participation.

With 43 members and 14 available spots, the most likely qualifying setup is one with 10 groups of 4 teams and one of 3 teams.

Here are the groups:

Group 1: Egypt, Gambia, Swaziland, Central African Republic
Group 2: Ghana, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Djibouti
Group 3: Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia
Group 4: Algeria, Uganda, Botswana, Mauritius
Group 5: Côte d'Ivoire, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Comoros
Group 6: Cameroon, Kenya, Libya, Niger
Group 7: Tunisia, Guinea, Congo DR, Liberia
Group 8: Mali, Morocco, Namibia, Madagascar
Group 9: Burkina Faso, Malawi, Tanzania, Burundi
Group 10: Zambia, Mozambique, Congo, Chad
Group 11: Benin, Angola, Cape Verde Islands

Group winners and the best three runners-up from groups 1 - 10 qualify for the final tournament.

Since CAF banned Togo for government interference, there's the possibility of CAF awarding 3 points to Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Burkina Faso. In this case, the groups would look like this:

Group 1: Egypt, Gambia, Swaziland, Central African Republic
Group 2: Ghana, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Djibouti
Group 3: Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia
Group 4: Nigeria, Uganda, Botswana, Mauritius
Group 5: Algeria, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Comoros
Group 6: Cameroon, Kenya, Libya, Niger
Group 7: Burkina Faso, Guinea, Congo DR, Liberia
Group 8: Tunisia, Morocco, Namibia, Madagascar
Group 9: Mali, Malawi, Tanzania, Burundi
Group 10: Zambia, Mozambique, Congo, Chad
Group 11: Benin, Angola, Cape Verde Islands