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Saturday, November 9, 2019

FIFA ranking: November 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA November 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: November 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the November 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on November 28th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: November 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including November 24th, used to calculate the November 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
Also the already played matches since October 21st, (probably) counting for the November ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: November 2019 probable ranking

The upcoming FIFA international match window will be decision time for the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 and for the EURO 2020 qualification. For both tournaments the final two match days will be played. Further more, besides a handful of friendlies, the Asian World Cup qualifying continues with MD 5 and 6 and the AFCON 2021 qualifying group stage starts with MD 1 and 2.

Here is the probable November 2019 ranking, to be published on November 28th.

Thursday, October 31, 2019

Qualification AFCON 2021 simulations (October 2019)

This November the first two match days of the group stage in qualifying for the African Cup of Nations 2021 will be played, in 12 groups of 4 teams. The group stage is played to a finish in Autumn 2020.
In between, in March and June 2020, the first two match days will be played of the second round of African qualifying for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. This is also a group stage consisting of 10 groups of 4 teams.

The exact date for the draw of the WCq group stage is not yet known. That will decide which FIFA-ranking will be used to seed the teams. FIFA will probably not publish a ranking in January or February next year, so for now I assume the November 2019 ranking will be used to seed the draw for this group stage.

Friday, October 18, 2019

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (October 2019)

The match days three and four of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started. See here for the simulation results after MD2.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (October 2019)

Match days three and four of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 were played last week. 

See here for more information about the CNL and the results of the initial simulations before the tournament started.
See here for more information about the qualification process for the Gold Cup 2021 and the results after MD2.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the whole CNL competition -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.