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Friday, November 21, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (21 November 2014)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competiton/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 20 November 2014.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

FIFA Ranking: November 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 27 November.

6 matches left - all friendlies as far as FIFA is concerned. The semifinals of the Gulf Cup and the first round of group stage matches of the AFF Suzuki Cup.

These matches won't affect the top 80.

Does the FIFA ranking matter to coaches?

Most of the national team coaches seem to ignore the ranking. It seems there's at least one coach taking another stance.


Friday, October 31, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (31 October 2014)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competiton/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

FIFA Ranking: November 2014 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 27 November.

Already added Serbia - Albania 3:0.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

FIFA Ranking: November 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the November 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: November 2014 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 27 November.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

43 - Serbia
43 - Bangladesh
31 - Cuba
26 - Ecuador
21 - Germany
15 - Cambodia
13 - Equatorial Guinea
13 - Burundi
12 - Swaziland
12 - Sao Tome e Principe