2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: (Almost) official AFC 4th round

Update: 30 January

On the morning of 27 January, the release date for the March 2012 ranking was 14 March. Later that day, FIFA brought the date forward by one week, thus the ranking will be published on 7 March, two days before the draw and what is written below is no longer true (i.e. the games on 29 February will now affect the seeding).

I did write on Friday to FIFA, AFC and all the involved FAs, but I can't claim the change of release date is because of me.

Original article follows:
__________________________

The AFC have announced yesterday the draw for the fourth round will take place on March 9.

Last August, AFC's Competition Committee decided to use the latest FIFA rankings to seed the teams for the fourth round draw.

Looking at the FIFA ranking schedule, this means the February ranking will be used, thus the 29 February games (last match day of the third round will not affect the seeding).

It would be better (in my very humble opinion) to postpone the draw for March 16 (two days after the released of the March ranking).

Already qualified: Jordan, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Japan, Australia and Iran.

Only one match left before the February ranking is released: a friendly involving the United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan, on January 29th. However, Uzbekistan are safe between Iran and Iraq (that's a difficult place to be in, isn't it?).

Here's the table, with Uzbekistan's friendly counted as a defeat. With a win, Uzbekistan would have 469 points, not enough to overtake Iran.

1	Australia	832
2	Japan	762
3	Korea Republic	714
4	Iran	606
5	Uzbekistan	455
6	Iraq	439
7	Jordan	431
8	Saudi Arabia	407
9	Kuwait	399
10	Oman	377
11	Qatar	372
12	Bahrain	366
13	Lebanon	299
14	Thailand	235

4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

Pot 1: Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Iran
Pot 3: Uzbekistan, Iraq
Pot 4: Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar.

If Korea Republic don't qualify, Uzbekistan will climb to Pot 2, while Jordan will climb to Pot 3.

Team GB - what do you make of it?

As far as I understand, most of the Welsh and Scottish football fans are against the idea of "Team GB", a Great Britain football team that will participate as hosts at the 2012 London Olympics.

The Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish football associations are reluctant to participate, because they fear they will lose their independent status within FIFA and their IFAB spots.

However, it seems the English FA have approached players from the other home nations despite the opposition of the FAs.

More in this Telegraph article.

I've been asked by a Welsh reader to write an article about this to see "how this is received by a global audience". :)

There's nothing in the FIFA statutes to stop the English FA from selecting Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish players for the Olympics.

So, two questions:

1. Should the English FA be allowed to select players outside of England, even though the Welsh, Scottish are Northern Irish football associations are against it?
2. Is this story making headlines (or at least the back page) in your country and what are your national media saying about it?

Something happening in the Gulf of Guinea

In Africa, all eyes are on Equatorial Guinea's achievement (and rightly so). The Equatoguineans (or well, the football players mainly born outside of the country) managed to qualify for the quarterfinals, eliminating Senegal in the process and will climb at least 33 places, from their current ranking of 151st.

However, another nation from the Gulf of Guinea is also making waves. Sao Tome and Principe (population: 163,000), have eliminated Lesotho (population: 2,067,000) in the first round of the 2013 Africa Cup of nations qualifiers after winning 1 - 0 in Sao Tome and getting a goalless draw in Maseru.

They will climb 28 places to 168th, their best ever ranking. Their previous record was 179th in August 2000. Just a quick reminder, Sao Tome have played no games between 16 November 2003 and 11 November 2011.

The Santomeans will now face Sierra Leone in the next round: 29 February at home and 15 June in Freetown.

2013 UEFA Under-21 play-off seeding

The coefficients for the 2013 UEFA European Under-21 Championship playoff draw will take into account results from:

2009 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
2011 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2013 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

More info about the Under-21 coefficient on UEFA.com (PDF file).

As mentioned before, I think there's a mistake in the regulations regarding the qualification points for teams that have hosted one of the last two final tournaments.

For Sweden (hosts of the 2009 final tournament) I used the 2011 qualification results (as in the regulations), while for Denmark (hosts of the 2011 final tournament) I used the 2009 qualification results, since I couldn't use the 2011 qualification results as in the regulation.

For the play-off draw, the seven group winners with the best coefficients will be seeded. Israel as hosts are already qualified. Their coefficient is 30302, good enough for 6th in the ranking.

Current standings available on UEFA.com.

Rank - Team - Points

1 Spain              36715
 2 Italy              31383
 3 Germany            31183
 4 England            30925
 5 Switzerland        30434
 6 Czech Republic     30125
 7 France             29392
 8 Russia             29222
 9 Netherlands        29074
10 Sweden             28861
11 Turkey             27342
12 Serbia             26819
13 Belarus            26678
14 Wales              25871
15 Scotland           25684
16 Romania            25585
17 Greece             25431
18 Denmark            24809
19 Croatia            24771
20 Austria            24552
21 Belgium            24426
22 Portugal           24326
23 Slovakia           24189
24 Ukraine            23279
25 Montenegro         23039
26 Finland            22306
27 Iceland            22158
28 Armenia            21631
29 Slovenia           20378
30 Poland             20201
31 Norway             19989
32 Moldova            19671
33 Hungary            19388
34 Bosnia-Herzegovina 18856
35 Georgia            18561
36 Ireland            18471
37 Northern Ireland   18364
38 Latvia             17646
39 Bulgaria           17538
40 Cyprus             16561
41 Albania            16046
42 Macedonia          15513
43 Estonia            15410
44 Faroe Islands      15085
45 Kazakhstan         14563
46 Lithuania          13370
47 Azerbaijan         12401
48 Malta              12043
49 Luxembourg         10963
50 Andorra             9356
51 Liechtenstein       8563
52 San Marino          7790

Using Wikipedia to determine the best second-placed teams, this is how the pots would look now:

Pot 1

Spain          36715
Italy          31383
Germany        31183
England        30925
Czech Republic 30125
France         29392
Russia         29222

Pot 2

Switzerland *  30434
Netherlands    29074
Turkey *       27342
Serbia         26819
Slovakia *     24189
Montenegro *   23039
Slovenia       20378

* - second placed teams

January 2012: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Solomon Islands	180	121	59
Syria	117	64	53
New Zealand	118	67	51
Mauritania	204	157	47
New Caledonia	166	120	46
Vanuatu	174	130	44
Fiji	161	118	43
Tahiti	184	145	39
Papua New Guinea	193	161	32
Poland	68	38	30

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Puerto Rico	108	169	-61
Algeria	32	90	-58
Sierra Leone	60	117	-57
Cape Verde Islands	58	105	-47
Antigua and Barbuda	84	127	-43
Samoa	150	192	-42
St. Kitts and Nevis	114	152	-38
Bermuda	106	143	-37
Armenia	45	81	-36
Luxembourg	127	163	-36

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Poland	68	38	30
Ukraine	54	28	26
Ecuador	42	25	17
Romania	55	39	16
Costa Rica	62	47	15
Iran	44	30	14
Czech Republic	31	21	10
Mexico	21	12	9
Colombia	35	27	8
Scotland	48	40	8

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Algeria	32	90	-58
Armenia	45	81	-36
Slovakia	39	70	-31
Slovenia	25	51	-26
Bosnia-Herzegovina	19	41	-22
Switzerland	16	29	-13
Greece	14	24	-10
Hungary	37	46	-9
Senegal	43	52	-9
Norway	24	32	-8

Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:

Poland - Algeria
Ukraine - Slovenia
Ecuador - Slovakia
Romania - Armenia
Costa Rica - Estonia
Iran - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Czech Republic - Hungary
Mexico - Switzerland
Colombia - Israel
Scotland - Sierra Leone

Possible error in the UEFA Under-21 regulations

In Annex I of the UEFA European Under-21 regulations, article 3 b) says:


In the case of an association that hosted a UEFA European Under-21 Championship final tournament during one of the last two full cycles and therefore has no points from the respective qualifying competition, the points earned in the qualifying competition of the 2009-11 UEFA European Under-21 Championship are used.

In my opinion, this is wrong.

Denmark hosted the 2009-11 final tournament, thus it can't use the points from 2009-11 qualifiers. Maybe it should use the points from the 2011-13 qualifiers.

FIFA Ranking: February 2012 probable ranking

Next update: 3 February 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 15 February.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Lots of movement in the top 10:

- Germany will overtake the Netherlands for 2nd in the ranking.
- Portugal will overtake Brazil
- Italy will overtake Croatia
- Denmark will overtake Argentina

Australia will overtake Japan at the top of AFC.

El Salvador will overtake Honduras and Costa Rica, climbing to 5th in CONCACAF.

Turks and Caicos Islands will join the group of teams with 0 points.

Côte d'Ivoire could enter the top 10 if they win all their matches and meet Ghana, Senegal and Tunisia in the knock-out stages.

Probable February 2012 rank - Team - Probable February 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Spain	1566	0	2
2	Germany	1369	1	24
3	Netherlands	1359	-1	-6
4	Uruguay	1317	0	8
5	England	1179	0	6
6	Portugal	1155	1	55
7	Brazil	1152	-1	9
8	Italy	1115	1	33
9	Croatia	1101	-1	10
10	Denmark	1090	1	58
11	Argentina	1081	-1	14
12	Côte d'Ivoire	1038	6	149
13	Chile	996	-1	23
14	Russia	989	-1	18
15	Greece	979	-1	15
16	Ghana	973	10	194
17	Switzerland	950	-1	52
18	France	930	-3	15
19	Sweden	924	-2	33
20	Bosnia-Herzegovina	920	-1	51
21	Republic of Ireland	893	2	29
22	Mexico	882	-1	16
23	Australia	832	-2	-34
24	Norway	793	0	5
25	Serbia	791	2	16
25	Turkey	791	4	22
27	Paraguay	781	0	6
27	Slovenia	781	-2	1
29	Czech Republic	775	2	26
30	Japan	762	-11	-107
31	Senegal	761	12	136
32	Colombia	746	3	37
33	Peru	743	1	31
34	USA	735	-1	14
35	Korea Republic	714	-5	-38
36	Israel	708	1	43
37	Algeria	684	-5	-50
38	Hungary	678	-1	13
39	Slovakia	675	0	27
40	Belgium	663	0	16
41	Ecuador	644	1	10
42	Armenia	639	3	27
43	Wales	635	6	44
44	Venezuela	615	-3	-27
45	Morocco	608	16	85
46	Iran	606	-2	-17
47	Panama	604	0	4
48	Scotland	602	0	3
49	Jamaica	589	3	16
50	Montenegro	585	0	0
51	Romania	583	4	21
52	El Salvador	576	12	70
52	Estonia	576	0	3
54	Nigeria	573	-9	-39
55	South Africa	559	1	8
56	Honduras	549	-5	-30
56	Ukraine	549	-2	-19
58	Egypt	545	-22	-153
59	Tunisia	542	0	1
60	Costa Rica	539	2	17
61	Sierra Leone	533	-1	0
62	Burkina Faso	528	4	29
63	Guinea	510	16	74
64	Cameroon	502	-8	-49
65	Belarus	494	0	-7
66	Libya	489	-3	-25
66	Mali	489	3	13
68	Gabon	487	23	100
69	Cape Verde Islands	477	-11	-72
70	Poland	470	-2	-24
71	Austria	469	0	10
71	Canada	469	3	14
71	Haiti	469	9	36
71	Uzbekistan	469	-4	-26
75	Latvia	463	-5	-3
76	China PR	456	-2	1
77	Iraq	453	-4	-4
78	Albania	452	-1	2
79	Georgia	436	-3	-15
80	Jordan	431	1	5
81	Trinidad and Tobago	430	-3	-18
82	Guatemala	422	7	22
83	Finland	416	2	11
84	Northern Ireland	412	3	9
85	Uganda	411	-3	0
86	Bulgaria	408	-3	-2
87	Saudi Arabia	407	0	4
88	Antigua and Barbuda	405	-4	-2
89	Angola	404	-4	-1
90	Kuwait	399	5	27
91	Guyana	388	1	2
92	Zambia	386	-21	-73
93	Lithuania	383	0	1
94	Togo	380	6	30
95	Oman	377	-5	-16
96	Qatar	372	1	8
97	Bahrain	366	-2	-6
98	Malawi	362	1	3
99	Zimbabwe	348	3	7
100	Vietnam	347	1	3
101	FYR Macedonia	345	2	10
102	Mozambique	332	3	13
103	Iceland	330	1	5
104	Botswana	328	-10	-45
105	Bermuda	321	1	7
106	Korea DPR	314	1	2
107	Bolivia	309	2	0
108	Rwanda	308	2	4
109	Azerbaijan	306	2	6
110	Niger	302	-12	-59
111	Puerto Rico	301	-3	-9
112	Gambia	292	6	21
113	Cuba	290	0	0
114	St. Kitts and Nevis	287	0	2
115	Faroe Islands	285	-1	0
116	Congo DR	281	0	5
117	Lebanon	272	-5	-21
118	Namibia	271	4	12
118	New Zealand	271	0	0
120	Syria	270	-3	-5
121	Kenya	267	0	7
122	Liechtenstein	263	8	17
123	Liberia	258	0	0
124	Suriname	254	1	0
125	Cyprus	252	1	-1
126	Central African Republic	251	2	0
127	Sudan	250	-7	-15
128	Dominican Republic	247	1	0
129	Congo	245	2	0
129	Thailand	245	-5	-12
131	Grenada	240	1	-1
131	Luxembourg	240	-4	-12
133	Belize	238	0	8
134	Benin	237	2	9
135	Ethiopia	230	-2	0
136	Kazakhstan	225	3	5
137	Tanzania	224	0	-1
138	Tajikistan	218	2	0
139	United Arab Emirates	212	-1	-11
140	Chad	207	2	19
141	Moldova	205	-6	-24
142	Burundi	199	-1	0
143	Nicaragua	189	2	24
144	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	172	0	1
145	Indonesia	161	-2	-22
146	Yemen	159	3	6
147	Singapore	155	0	-6
148	Turkmenistan	154	-2	-10
149	Malaysia	153	-1	-4
150	Lesotho	152	3	8
151	Samoa	149	-1	0
152	Nepal	144	1	0
153	Curacao	142	-1	-4
154	Bahamas	141	1	0
154	India	141	4	3
156	Philippines	139	1	0
157	Bangladesh	138	1	0
158	Madagascar	135	2	0
159	Fiji	133	2	0
159	Malta	133	-3	-7
161	Palestine	128	1	7
162	Hong Kong	126	6	17
162	New Caledonia	126	4	10
164	Equatorial Guinea	123	-13	-24
165	Aruba	120	-1	0
166	Chinese Taipei	116	1	6
166	Guinea-Bissau	116	-4	-5
168	Barbados	107	-3	-12
169	Mongolia	106	0	0
170	Laos	105	4	9
171	Cambodia	104	-1	3
172	Vanuatu	103	2	7
173	Myanmar	99	-1	0
174	Maldives	98	-1	0
175	Dominica	95	-4	-5
176	Sao Tome e Principe	91	20	64
177	Tonga	88	-1	0
178	Afghanistan	85	-1	0
179	Swaziland	83	1	8
180	US Virgin Islands	82	-2	0
181	Pakistan	76	-2	0
182	Solomon Islands	75	-2	0
182	Sri Lanka	75	-2	0
184	Tahiti	73	0	0
185	Cayman Islands	72	-2	-2
186	St. Lucia	65	-1	0
187	American Samoa	61	-1	0
188	Comoros	55	-1	0
189	Seychelles	53	-1	0
190	Eritrea	45	-1	0
191	Somalia	43	-1	0
192	Kyrgyzstan	42	-1	0
193	Guam	36	-1	0
194	Papua New Guinea	34	-1	0
195	Mauritius	32	-1	0
196	Macau	29	1	3
197	Cook Islands	28	-2	0
198	British Virgin Islands	23	0	0
198	Djibouti	23	0	0
200	Anguilla	9	1	0
201	Bhutan	6	1	0
201	Brunei Darussalam	6	1	0
203	Mauritania	4	1	0
204	Timor-Leste	2	1	0
205	Andorra	0	1	0
205	Montserrat	0	1	0
205	San Marino	0	1	0
205	Turks and Caicos Islands	0	-5	-13