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Friday, March 27, 2015

Friday, March 20, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 20 March 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from FIFA.com. If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

More info on the official format in the previous post.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 20 March 2015.

Remember Zimbabwe were excluded. I still have them in the list, just in case they are reinstated.


2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (20 March 2015)

The second round draw will take place on 14 April 2015 and will use the April 2015 FIFA ranking as confirmed by AFC.

Only one spot left - it will be either Pakistan or Yemen - as the return leg was rescheduled because of the Lahore church bombings.


Friday, March 13, 2015

FIFA Ranking: April 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 April. The April edition will also be used to seed the Asian group stage draw of the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

A couple of things will happen regardless of these probable results.
  • Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Cook Islands, Djibouti will drop to new lows
  • We will have a new bottom team, replacing Bhutan. It will be Anguilla (if they fail to register at least a single point in their World Cup qualifiers vs. Nicaragua) or Cook Islands and Djibouti - tied on 4 points.
  • Bhutan will register their best move ever - at least 14 spots

FIFA Ranking: April 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the April 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: April 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 April.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

66 - India
64 - Bhutan
54 - Brunei Darussalam
47 - Timor-Leste
27 - Yemen
22 - Cambodia
18 - Honduras
15 - Azerbaijan
12 - Armenia
9 - Guinea
9 - Vietnam