Uncertainties about FIFA's new calculation method

Example: let's assume that in an elo-system team A has 1200 points as 'the value before a match' and team B has 1500 points as 'the value before a match' when they play a friendly match (not in a FIFA International Match Calendar window) against each other with A as the home team. A wins 1:0.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

In this qualifying phase 34 teams each play four matches, two at home and two away. For the draw of these matches the teams were placed in 2 pots of 8 teams and 2 pots of 9 teams, according to a new ranking for CONCACAF teams. This ranking is also established in an elo-like way (like the new FIFA ranking) but so poorly documented that I didn't even tried to calculate it.

FIFA Ranking: July 2018 final preview (old method)

I also give you the July 2018 ranking calculated with the 'old' calculation method:

FIFA Ranking: July 2018 final preview (new method)

FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. It will be used for the very next ranking, the first ranking after the World Cup, to be published on July 19th.

Here is the final preview of the July 2018 ranking as I think it should be calculated given the information FIFA has provided sofar. There are some points of discussion though that could alter the result considerably:

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable ranking (new method)

FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. It will be used for the very next ranking, the first ranking after the World Cup, to be published on July 19th.

I have made a probable July 2018 ranking, applying the new calculation method for all matches played from June 4th onwards. See the probable results for the predicted results used. 

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable results

Here are the predicted results of all currently scheduled matches and the prediction of the matches in the knock-out phase of the World Cup, used to calculate the July 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are predictions of scheduled matches. And no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)

FIFA ranking: July 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on July 19th.

Another few preparatory friendlies this week and then from Thursday the main course: the World Cup in Russia.

Also check the probable July ranking.

Most points gained (worst case scenario)
68 - Paraguay
58 - Kyrgyzstan
57 - Norway

Most points lost (best case scenario)

-217 - Chile
-158 - Netherlands
-134 - El Salvador