2026 World Cup Qualifying UEFA 10000 Simulations (update 27 April 2025)

Qualifying Groups

With this post I've now also included the playoffs in the simulation, and as such I can give a total qualifying percentage for each country.

NOTE: The "Pl-off" column suggests the chance to have to play the playoff, the "Q-Totl" suggest the total chance to qualify either as group winner or as playoff path winner, and the "NotQual" column suggest the chances of not qualifying, including via the playoffs.

Group A

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Germany                 69.34%  21.27%   7.18%   2.21%  30.66%  82.40%  17.60%

Slovakia                21.05%  43.53%  23.50%  11.92%  43.53%  31.96%  68.04%

Luxembourg               5.73%  19.23%  30.96%  44.08%  19.23%   7.62%  92.38%

Northern Ireland         3.88%  15.97%  38.36%  41.79%  85.02%  13.45%  86.55%

Group B

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Switzerland             49.54%  29.26%  16.42%   4.78%  29.26%  61.00%  39.00%

Sweden                  29.88%  34.12%  26.39%   9.61%  69.47%  49.20%  50.80%

Slovenia                17.91%  27.98%  35.98%  18.13%  27.98%  24.29%  75.71%

Kosovo                   2.67%   8.64%  21.21%  67.48%   8.64%   3.39%  96.61%

Group C

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Denmark                 50.54%  28.87%  16.80%   3.79%  29.59%  62.06%  37.94%

Greece                  24.19%  32.74%  31.54%  11.53%  32.74%  33.00%  67.00%

Scotland                23.11%  31.74%  33.02%  12.13%  33.09%  32.01%  67.99%

Belarus                  2.16%   6.65%  18.64%  72.55%   6.65%   2.77%  97.23%

Group D

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

France                  83.99%  13.62%   2.24%   0.15%  16.01%  93.92%   6.08%

Ukraine                 12.81%  55.54%  24.78%   6.96%  55.45%  32.27%  67.73%    

Iceland                  2.78%  24.33%  49.06%  23.83%  24.33%   6.52%  94.48%

Azerbaijan               0.42%   6.60%  23.92%  69.06%   6.60%   0.80%  99.20%

Group E

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Spain                   81.56%  14.62%   3.24%   0.58%  18.44%  92.38%   7.62%

Türkiye                 12.67%  49.19%  25.61%  12.53%  49.19%  29.21%  70.79%

Georgia                  3.67%  21.34%  38.58%  36.41%  21.34%   6.71%  93.29%

Bulgaria                 2.10%  14.85%  32.57%  50.48%  14.85%   3.73%  96.27%

Group F

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Portugal                72.00%  20.53%   6.13%   1.34%  28.00%  86.50%  13.50%

Hungary                 18.31%  43.70%  27.38%  10.61%  44.01%  32.12%  67.88%

Ireland                  8.06%  26.54%  41.13%  24.27%  26.54%  12.66%  87.34%

Armenia                  1.63%   9.23%  25.36%  63.78%   9.23%   2.42%  97.58%

Group G

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Netherlands             73.50%  21.89%   4.33%   0.28%   0.00%  22.08%  84.34%  15.66%

Poland                  22.38%  56.02%  19.93%   1.64%   0.03%  56.06%  37.92%  62.08%

Finland                  4.04%  21.06%  63.26%  10.82%   0.82%  21.06%   7.47%  92.53%

Lithuania                0.07%   0.84%   9.58%  58.72%  30.79%   0.84%   0.11%  99.89%

Malta                    0.01%   0.19%   2.90%  28.54%  68.36%   0.19%   0.01%  99.99%

Group H

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Austria                 56.65%  25.08%  15.55%   2.69%   0.03%  25.08%  65.36%  34.64%

Bosnia and Herzegovina  24.63%  38.85%  32.20%   4.20%   0.12%  38.85%  28.56%  71.44%

Romania                 18.05%  32.59%  39.06%  10.19%   0.11%  81.84%  36.90%  63.10%

Cyprus                   0.67%   3.45%  13.04%  79.66%   3.18%   3.45%   0.82%  99.18%

San Marino               0.00%   0.03%   0.15%   3.26%  96.56%  25.01%   0.01%  99.99%

Group I

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Italy                   68.49%  27.16%   3.74%   0.59%   0.02%  27.32%  81.91%  18.09%

Norway                  29.61%  58.44%  10.19%   1.75%   0.01%  70.39%  45.51%  54.49%

Israel                   1.62%  10.37%  58.37%  24.37%   5.27%  10.52%   2.87%  97.13%

Estonia                  0.28%   3.84%  23.81%  59.00%  13.07%   3.84%   0.47%  99.53%

Moldova                  0.00%   0.19%   3.89%  14.29%  81.63%  61.15%   1.17%  98.83%

Group J

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

Belgium                 71.03%  20.88%   7.03%   1.05%   0.01%  21.16%  81.64%  18.36%

Wales                   22.48%  51.24%  22.34%   3.91%   0.03%  77.52%  45.65%  54.35%

North Macedonia          5.73%  23.17%  51.29%  19.59%   0.22%  91.77%  16.84%  83.16%

Kazakhstan               0.76%   4.71%  19.31%  73.06%   2.16%   4.71%   1.08%  98.92%

Liechtenstein            0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   2.39%  97.58%   0.00%   0.00% 100.00%

Group K

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual

England                 88.03%  10.91%   1.04%   0.02%   0.00%  11.97%  94.18%   5.82%

Serbia                   9.87%  54.47%  28.42%   6.63%   0.61%  54.95%  26.86%  73.14%

Albania                  2.04%  30.52%  51.65%  14.88%   0.91%  30.52%   6.73%  93.27%

Latvia                   0.06%   3.99%  17.85%  66.86%  11.24%   3.99%   0.18%  99.82%

Andorra                  0.00%   0.11%   1.04%  11.61%  87.24%   0.11%   0.00% 100.00%

Group L

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-Totl NotQual
Croatia                 64.61%  26.23%   8.55%   0.59%   0.02%  26.66%  76.31%  23.69%

Czechia                 27.04%  47.62%  23.98%   1.36%   0.00%  72.96%  43.04%  56.96%
Montenegro               8.25%  25.33%  60.15%   6.10%   0.17%  25.33%  11.54%  88.46%
Faroe Islands            0.10%   0.78%   6.78%  73.58%  18.76%   0.78%   0.13%  99.87%
Gibraltar                0.00%   0.04%   0.54%  18.37%  81.05%   0.04%   0.00% 100.00%

Playoffs

Likelihood

The following shows how likely a country ends up in the playoffs.

NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, and "Playoff" suggests the percentage chance of qualifying for the playoff round.

                       FRnk Grp  Playoff
North Macedonia          67   J   91.77%
Northern Ireland         71   A   85.02%
Romania                  45   H   81.84%
Wales                    29   J   77.52%
Czechia                  39   L   72.96%
Norway                   38   I   70.39%
Sweden                   28   B   69.47%
Moldova                 154   I   61.15%
Poland                   34   G   56.06%
Ukraine                  25   D   55.45%
Serbia                   31   K   54.95%
Türkiye                  27   E   49.19%
Hungary                  37   F   44.01%
Slovakia                 46   A   43.53%
Bosnia and Herzegovina   70   H   38.85%
Scotland                 44   C   33.09%
Greece                   40   C   32.74%
Germany                  10   A   30.66%
Albania                  66   K   30.52%
Denmark                  21   C   29.59%
Switzerland              20   B   29.26%
Portugal                  7   F   28.00%
Slovenia                 51   B   27.98%
Italy                     9   I   27.32%
Croatia                  11   L   26.66%
Ireland                  60   F   26.54%
Montenegro               73   L   25.33%
Austria                  22   H   25.08%
San Marino              210   H   25.01%
Iceland                  74   D   24.33%
Netherlands               6   G   22.08%
Georgia                  68   E   21.34%
Belgium                   8   J   21.16%
Finland                  69   G   21.06%
Luxembourg               91   A   19.23%
Spain                     2   E   18.44%
France                    3   D   16.01%
Bulgaria                 85   E   14.85%
England                   4   K   11.97%
Israel                   78   I   10.52%
Armenia                 102   F    9.23%
Kosovo                   97   B    8.64%
Belarus                  98   C    6.65%
Azerbaijan              119   D    6.60%
Kazakhstan              113   J    4.71%
Latvia                  138   K    3.99%
Estonia                 121   I    3.84%
Cyprus                  129   H    3.45%
Lithuania               143   G    0.84%
Faroe Islands           141   L    0.78%
Malta                   169   G    0.19%
Andorra                 173   K    0.11%
Gibraltar               196   L    0.04%
Liechtenstein           205   J    0.00%

Results

The following shows if a country ends up in the playoffs, what their chances are of winning in each round.

NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, "Win-Fin" suggests the chances to win the final, "Lose-Fi" suggests the chance to lose the final, "Win-Sem" suggests the chance to win the semi final, "Lose-Sem" suggests the chance to lose the semi, and "Playoff" is the percentage chance that the country ends up playing in the playoff round.

NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.

                       FRnk Grp  Win-Fin  Lose-Fi  Win-Sem Lose-Sem  Playoff
France                    3   D   62.02%   20.36%   82.39%   17.61%   16.01%
Spain                     2   E   58.68%   21.26%   79.93%   20.07%   18.44%
Portugal                  7   F   51.79%   23.93%   75.71%   24.29%   28.00%
England                   4   K   51.38%   25.65%   77.03%   22.97%   11.97%
Belgium                   8   J   50.14%   27.74%   77.88%   22.12%   21.16%
Italy                     9   I   49.12%   26.39%   75.51%   24.49%   27.32%
Netherlands               6   G   49.09%   27.22%   76.31%   23.69%   22.08%
Croatia                  11   L   43.89%   28.69%   72.58%   27.42%   26.66%
Germany                  10   A   42.60%   25.93%   68.53%   31.47%   30.66%
Switzerland              20   B   39.17%   29.46%   68.63%   31.37%   29.26%
Denmark                  21   C   38.93%   29.64%   68.57%   31.43%   29.59%
Ukraine                  25   D   35.09%   30.60%   65.70%   34.30%   55.45%
Austria                  22   H   34.73%   31.02%   65.75%   34.25%   25.08%
Türkiye                  27   E   33.62%   31.53%   65.16%   34.84%   49.19%
Hungary                  37   F   31.38%   31.29%   62.67%   37.33%   44.01%
Serbia                   31   K   30.92%   30.61%   61.53%   38.47%   54.95%
Wales                    29   J   29.89%   28.29%   58.18%   41.82%   77.52%
Sweden                   28   B   27.81%   27.65%   55.46%   44.54%   69.47%
Poland                   34   G   27.72%   31.81%   59.53%   40.47%   56.06%
Greece                   40   C   26.91%   30.33%   57.24%   42.76%   32.74%
Scotland                 44   C   26.90%   27.92%   54.82%   45.18%   33.09%
Slovakia                 46   A   25.06%   29.47%   54.54%   45.46%   43.53%
Romania                  45   H   23.03%   25.94%   48.97%   51.03%   81.84%
Slovenia                 51   B   22.80%   25.70%   48.50%   51.50%   27.98%
Norway                   38   I   22.59%   28.11%   50.70%   49.30%   70.39%
Czechia                  39   L   21.93%   26.15%   48.08%   51.92%   72.96%
Ireland                  60   F   17.33%   25.06%   42.39%   57.61%   26.54%
Finland                  69   G   16.29%   21.04%   37.32%   62.68%   21.06%
Iceland                  74   D   15.37%   21.50%   36.87%   63.13%   24.33%
Albania                  66   K   15.37%   23.30%   38.66%   61.34%   30.52%
Georgia                  68   E   14.25%   21.09%   35.33%   64.67%   21.34%
Montenegro               73   L   12.99%   19.86%   32.85%   67.15%   25.33%
North Macedonia          67   J   12.11%   20.89%   33.00%   67.00%   91.77%
Israel                   78   I   11.88%   21.01%   32.89%   67.11%   10.52%
Northern Ireland         71   A   11.26%   21.09%   32.35%   67.65%   85.02%
Bulgaria                 85   E   10.98%   19.73%   30.71%   69.29%   14.85%
Bosnia and Herzegovina   70   H   10.12%   19.90%   30.01%   69.99%   38.85%
Luxembourg               91   A    9.83%   19.08%   28.91%   71.09%   19.23%
Belarus                  98   C    9.17%   18.65%   27.82%   72.18%    6.65%
Armenia                 102   F    8.56%   16.58%   25.14%   74.86%    9.23%
Kosovo                   97   B    8.33%   19.56%   27.89%   72.11%    8.64%
Kazakhstan              113   J    6.79%   17.62%   24.42%   75.58%    4.71%
Azerbaijan              119   D    5.76%   17.42%   23.18%   76.82%    6.60%
Estonia                 121   I    4.95%   17.71%   22.66%   77.34%    3.84%
Lithuania               143   G    4.76%    7.14%   11.90%   88.10%    0.84%
Cyprus                  129   H    4.35%   16.81%   21.16%   78.84%    3.45%
Faroe Islands           141   L    3.85%   16.67%   20.51%   79.49%    0.78%
Latvia                  138   K    3.01%   13.28%   16.29%   83.71%    3.99%
Moldova                 154   I    1.91%   10.24%   12.15%   87.85%   61.15%
San Marino              210   H    0.04%    2.20%    2.24%   97.76%   25.01%
Andorra                 173   K    0.00%    9.09%    9.09%   90.91%    0.11%
Gibraltar               196   L    0.00%    0.00%    0.00%  100.00%    0.04%
Malta                   169   G    0.00%   15.79%   15.79%   84.21%    0.19%
Liechtenstein           205   J      n/a      n/a      n/a      n/a    0.00%

Overall Qualifying

This table is interesting because it shows the relative randomness of the group draw and the effect of using the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League Overall Ranking, giving Moldova and San Marino bigger changes to qualify. Other notables include Bosnia and Herzegovina and Luxembourg whose chances are currently higher than would be expected, and for countries like Ukraine, Türkiye and Israel the chances are smaller.

NOTE: "FRnk" is the current FIFA ranking of the team, "Grp" is the qualifying group the country is allocated to, "Qual" suggests the percentage chance to qualify, either by winner the group or the playoff path, and "NotQual" suggests the percentage change to not qualify.

NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.

                        FRnk  Grp     Qual  NotQual
England                    4    K   94.18%    5.82%
France                     3    D   93.92%    6.08%
Spain                      2    E   92.38%    7.62%
Portugal                   7    F   86.50%   13.50%
Netherlands                6    G   84.34%   15.66%
Germany                   10    A   82.40%   17.60%
Italy                      9    I   81.91%   18.09%
Belgium                    8    J   81.64%   18.36%
Croatia                   11    L   76.31%   23.69%
Austria                   22    H   65.36%   34.64%
Denmark                   21    C   62.06%   37.94%
Switzerland               20    B   61.00%   39.00%
Sweden                    28    B   49.20%   50.80%
Wales                     29    J   45.65%   54.35%
Norway                    38    I   45.51%   54.49%
Czechia                   39    L   43.04%   56.96%
Poland                    34    G   37.92%   62.08%
Romania                   45    H   36.90%   63.10%
Greece                    40    C   33.00%   67.00%
Ukraine                   25    D   32.27%   67.73%
Hungary                   37    F   32.12%   67.88%
Scotland                  44    C   32.01%   67.99%
Slovakia                  46    A   31.96%   68.04%
Türkiye                   27    E   29.21%   70.79%
Bosnia and Herzegovina    70    H   28.56%   71.44%
Serbia                    31    K   26.86%   73.14%
Slovenia                  51    B   24.29%   75.71%
North Macedonia           67    J   16.84%   83.16%
Northern Ireland          71    A   13.45%   86.55%
Ireland                   60    F   12.66%   87.34%
Montenegro                73    L   11.54%   88.46%
Luxembourg                91    A    7.62%   92.38%
Finland                   69    G    7.47%   92.53%
Albania                   66    K    6.73%   93.27%
Georgia                   68    E    6.71%   93.29%
Iceland                   74    D    6.52%   93.48%
Bulgaria                  85    E    3.73%   96.27%
Kosovo                    97    B    3.39%   96.61%
Israel                    78    I    2.87%   97.13%
Belarus                   98    C    2.77%   97.23%
Armenia                  102    F    2.42%   97.58%
Moldova                  154    I    1.17%   98.83%
Kazakhstan               113    J    1.08%   98.92%
Cyprus                   129    H    0.82%   99.18%
Azerbaijan               119    D    0.80%   99.20%
Estonia                  121    I    0.47%   99.53%
Latvia                   138    K    0.18%   99.82%
Faroe Islands            141    L    0.13%   99.87%
Lithuania                143    G    0.11%   99.89%
Malta                    169    G    0.01%   99.99%
San Marino               210    H    0.01%   99.99%
Andorra                  173    K    0.00%  100.00%
Gibraltar                196    L    0.00%  100.00%
Liechtenstein            205    J    0.00%  100.00%

2026 World Cup Qualifying UEFA 10000 Simulations (update 20 April 2025)

Especially for Ted, here's the simulation update to the UEFA 2026 World Cup Qualifying groups following the publication of the April 2025 FIFA Ranking and this time adding the chances of qualifying for the playoffs via the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League.

NOTE: The "Pl-off" column signifies the percentage chance to qualify for the playoff round, the "Q-or-P" signifies the percentage change to qualify directly or for a playoff place, and the "NQDnorP" specifies the chance of not qualifying directly nor qualifying for at least a playoff place (not for "not" qualifying for the finals, but I'll work on that also because I guess with this determination it's now also possible to randomly draw playoff paths after seeding the qualifiers according to the relative FIFA Ranking after these qualifying matches have been played, excluding any friendlies though as that's going to complicate matters further).

Update 2025-04-26 06:51 UTC: Fixed a bug in my software that may have slightly overestimated the playoff percentages below, and at the same time working on adding a simulation of the playoff round semi finals and final to also include a proper final percentage for qualifying via those.

Group A

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-or-P NQDnorP

Germany                 68.33%  22.18%   7.61%   1.88%  31.67% 100.00%   0.00%

Slovakia                22.04%  42.12%  23.44%  12.40%  42.12%  64.16%  35.84%

Luxembourg               5.78%  18.98%  29.83%  45.41%  18.98%  24.76%  75.24%

Northern Ireland         3.85%  16.72%  39.12%  40.31%  20.38%  24.23%  75.77%

Group B

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-or-P NQDnorP

Switzerland             48.85%  30.11%  16.14%   4.90%  30.11%  78.96%  21.04%

Sweden                  30.68%  33.79%  25.93%   9.60%  44.66%  75.34%  24.66%

Slovenia                17.43%  27.97%  37.15%  17.45%  27.97%  45.40%  54.60%

Kosovo                   3.04%   8.13%  20.78%  68.05%   8.13%  11.17%  88.83%

Group C

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-or-P NQDnorP

Denmark                 49.61%  29.69%  16.72%   3.98%  29.69%  79.30%  20.70%

Greece                  25.07%  32.19%  31.55%  11.19%  32.19%  57.26%  42.74%

Scotland                23.12%  31.35%  33.29%  12.24%  31.35%  54.47%  45.53%

Belarus                  2.20%   6.77%  18.44%  72.59%   6.77%   8.97%  91.03%

Group D

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-or-P NQDnorP

France                  83.61%  13.98%   2.24%   0.17%  16.39% 100.00%   0.00%

Ukraine                 13.27%  56.52%  24.47%   5.74%  56.52%  69.79%  30.21%

Iceland                  2.75%  23.62%  50.74%  22.89%  23.62%  26.37%  73.63%

Azerbaijan               0.37%   5.88%  22.55%  71.20%   5.88%   6.25%  93.75%

Group E

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-or-P NQDnorP

Spain                   80.94%  15.15%   3.33%   0.58%  19.06% 100.00%   0.00%

Türkiye                 13.67%  49.41%  24.88%  12.04%  49.41%  63.08%  36.92%

Georgia                  3.47%  20.36%  38.83%  37.34%  20.36%  23.83%  76.17%

Bulgaria                 1.92%  15.08%  32.96%  50.04%  15.08%  17.00%  83.00%

Group F

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off  Q-or-P NQDnorP

Portugal                70.95%  20.77%   6.90%   1.38%  29.05% 100.00%   0.00%

Hungary                 18.99%  44.06%  26.81%  10.14%  44.06%  63.05%  36.95%

Ireland                  8.36%  25.64%  41.20%  24.80%  25.64%  34.00%  66.00%

Armenia                  1.70%   9.53%  25.09%  63.68%   9.53%  11.23%  88.77%

Group G

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-or-P NQDnorP

Netherlands             73.65%  21.60%   4.50%   0.25%   0.00%  21.60%  95.25%   4.75%

Poland                  21.80%  56.56%  20.13%   1.40%   0.11%  56.56%  78.36%  21.64%

Finland                  4.50%  20.98%  64.13%   9.47%   0.92%  20.98%  25.48%  74.52%

Lithuania                0.05%   0.75%   8.80%  59.64%  30.76%   0.75%   0.80%  99.20%

Malta                    0.00%   0.11%   2.44%  29.24%  68.21%   0.11%   0.11%  99.89%

Group H

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-or-P NQDnorP

Austria                 56.05%  24.33%  16.35%   3.26%   0.01%  24.33%  80.38%  19.62%

Bosnia and Herzegovina  24.28%  38.69%  32.53%   4.45%   0.05%  38.69%  62.97%  37.03%

Romania                 18.84%  33.44%  38.40%   9.24%   0.08%  61.19%  80.03%  19.97%

Cyprus                   0.83%   3.53%  12.62%  79.98%   3.04%   3.53%   4.36%  95.64%

San Marino               0.00%   0.01%   0.10%   3.07%  96.82%   0.06%   0.06%  99.94%

Group I

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-or-P NQDnorP

Italy                   68.90%  26.53%   4.01%   0.51%   0.05%  26.53%  95.43%   4.57%

Norway                  29.20%  59.99%   9.03%   1.67%   0.11%  70.67%  99.87%   0.13%

Israel                   1.59%   9.73%  57.81%  25.51%   5.36%   9.73%  11.32%  88.68%

Estonia                  0.30%   3.55%  25.54%  58.31%  12.30%   3.55%   3.85%  96.15%

Moldova                  0.01%   0.20%   3.61%  14.00%  82.18%   1.05%   1.06%  98.94%

Group J

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-or-P NQDnorP

Belgium                 72.12%  20.24%   6.71%   0.93%   0.00%  20.24%  92.36%   7.64%

Wales                   21.76%  51.75%  23.10%   3.33%   0.06%  76.88%  98.64%   1.36%

North Macedonia          5.58%  23.16%  51.23%  19.86%   0.17%  34.97%  40.55%  59.45%

Kazakhstan               0.54%   4.83%  18.89%  73.66%   2.08%   4.83%   5.37%  94.63%

Liechtenstein            0.00%   0.02%   0.07%   2.22%  97.69%   0.02%   0.02%  99.98%

Group K

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-or-P NQDnorP

England                 88.25%  10.78%   0.95%   0.02%   0.00%  11.75% 100.00%   0.00%

Serbia                   9.71%  54.62%  28.67%   6.23%   0.77%  54.62%  64.33%  35.67%

Albania                  1.95%  30.20%  51.45%  15.33%   1.07%  30.20%  32.15%  67.85%

Latvia                   0.09%   4.22%  17.82%  66.47%  11.40%   4.22%   4.31%  95.69%

Andorra                  0.00%   0.18%   1.11%  11.95%  86.76%   0.18%   0.18%  99.82%

Group L

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off  Q-or-P NQDnorP

Croatia                 64.97%  26.14%   8.44%   0.45%   0.00%  26.14%  91.11%   8.89%
Czechia                 27.18%  47.72%  23.98%   1.11%   0.01%  68.29%  95.47%   4.53%
Montenegro               7.80%  25.49%  60.14%   6.44%   0.13%  25.49%  33.29%  66.71%
Faroe Islands            0.05%   0.64%   7.01%  73.75%  18.55%   0.64%   0.69%  99.31%
Gibraltar                0.00%   0.01%   0.43%  18.25%  81.31%   0.01%   0.01%  99.99%

2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup 10000 Simulations

Following the draw made this week I tuned my software to be able to predict a tournament. Here's the results.

NOTE 1: as Guadeloupe isn't a FIFA member and I use FIFA rankings for predictions, I created this simulation with a presumptive ranking of 1150, which seems realistic.

NOTE 2: for the matchup possibilities I took the 10 most likely ones as there's more combinations possible.

Group A

Country                 1st     2nd     3rd     4th

Mexico               65.95%  26.97%   5.99%   1.09%
Costa Rica           29.27%  49.60%  15.80%   5.33%
Surinam               2.59%  11.93%  39.44%  46.04%
Dominican Republic    2.19%  11.50%  38.77%  47.54%

Group B

Country                 1st     2nd     3rd     4th

Canada               52.48%  24.94%  14.53%   8.05%

Honduras             16.86%  26.83%  29.10%  27.21%

El Salvador          17.16%  25.26%  27.97%  29.61%
Curaçao              13.50%  22.97%  28.40%  35.13%

Group C

Country                 1st     2nd     3rd     4th

Panama               51.62%  28.45%  13.99%   5.94%

Jamaica              30.48%  34.20%  22.77%  12.55%

Guatemala            10.46%  20.54%  32.97%  36.03%

Guadeloupe            7.44%  16.81%  30.27%  45.48%

Group D

Country                 1st     2nd     3rd     4th

United States        65.59%  22.62%   8.47%   3.32%

Saudi Arabia         18.55%  35.51%  27.90%  18.04%

Haiti                 9.50%  24.05%  33.44%  33.01%

Trinidad and Tobago   6.36%  17.82%  30.19%  45.63%

Quarter Finalist

Mexico               92.92%

United States        88.21%

Panama               80.07%

Costa Rica           78.87%

Canada               77.42%

Jamaica              64.68%

Saudi Arabia         54.06%

Honduras             43.69%

El Salvador          42.42%

Curaçao              36.47%

Haiti                33.55%

Guatemala            31.00%

Guadeloupe           24.25%

Trinidad and Tobago  24.18%

Surinam              14.52%

Dominican Republic   13.69%

Semi Finalist

United States        59.14%

Mexico               58.95%

Panama               48.86%

Canada               47.43%

Costa Rica           36.62%

Jamaica              33.84%

Saudi Arabia         22.23%

Honduras             19.20%

El Salvador          17.88%

Curaçao              14.62%

Haiti                11.00%

Guatemala            10.75%

Guadeloupe            7.42%

Trinidad and Tobago   6.73%

Surinam               2.71%

Dominican Republic    2.62%

Finalist

United States        41.37%

Mexico               39.64%

Panama               22.63%

Canada               22.00%

Costa Rica           20.37%

Jamaica              12.79%

Saudi Arabia         11.44%

Honduras              6.88%

El Salvador           5.34%

Haiti                 4.68%

Curaçao               4.62%

Guatemala             2.94%

Trinidad and Tobago   2.27%

Guadeloupe            1.53%

Surinam               0.78%

Dominican Republic    0.72%

Winner

United States        27.04%

Mexico               23.32%

Canada               11.12%

Panama               11.07%

Costa Rica            8.84%

Jamaica               4.83%

Saudi Arabia          4.67%

Honduras              2.15%

El Salvador           1.82%

Haiti                 1.52%

Curaçao               1.44%

Guatemala             0.89%

Trinidad and Tobago   0.58%

Guadeloupe            0.38%

Surinam               0.17%

Dominican Republic    0.16%

Quarter Finals

1A v 2D

Mexico v Saudi Arabia              23.60%

Mexico v Haiti                     15.61%

Mexico v United States             15.16%

Mexico v Trinidad and Tobago       11.58%

Costa Rica v Saudi Arabia          10.11%

Costa Rica v Haiti                  7.25%

Costa Rica v United States          6.43%

Costa Rica v Trinidad and Tobago    5.48%

Surinam v Saudi Arabia              1.04%

Dominican Republic v Saudi Arabia   0.76%

1B v 2C

Canada v Jamaica                   18.12%

Canada v Panama                    14.57%

Canada v Guatemala                 10.66%

Canada v Guadeloupe                 9.13%

El Salvador v Jamaica               6.06%

Honduras v Jamaica                  5.45%

Honduras v Panama                   4.97%

El Salvador v Panama                4.70%

Curaçao v Jamaica                   4.57%

Curaçao v Panama                    4.21%

1C v 2B

Panama v Honduras                  13.60%

Panama v Canada                    13.14%

Panama v El Salvador               12.88%

Panama v Curaçao                   12.00%

Jamaica v Honduras                  8.50%

Jamaica v El Salvador               7.63%

Jamaica v Canada                    7.52%

Jamaica v Curaçao                   6.83%

Guatemala v El Salvador             2.90%

Guatemala v Honduras                2.70%

1D v 2A

United States v Costa Rica         32.50%

United States v Mexico             17.91%

Saudi Arabia v Costa Rica           9.14%

United States v Dominican Republic  7.73%

United States v Surinam             7.45%

Saudi Arabia v Mexico               4.83%

Haiti v Costa Rica                  4.77%

Trinidad and Tobago v Costa Rica    3.19%

Saudi Arabia v Surinam              2.51%

Haiti v Mexico                      2.35%

Combined

United States v Costa Rica         38.93%

United States v Mexico             33.07%

Mexico v Saudi Arabia              28.43%

Canada v Panama                    27.71%

Canada v Jamaica                   25.64%

Costa Rica v Saudi Arabia          19.25%

Panama v Honduras                  18.57%

Mexico v Haiti                     17.96%

Panama v El Salvador               17.58%

Panama v Curaçao                   16.21%

Semi Finals

(1A v 2D) v (1C v 2B)

Mexico v Panama                    15.23%

Mexico v Jamaica                    7.99%

Mexico v Canada                     5.72%

Costa Rica v Panama                 5.67%

Mexico v El Salvador                4.33%

Mexico v Honduras                   4.27%

United States v Panama              4.22%

Saudi Arabia v Panama               4.13%

Mexico v Curaçao                    3.91%

Costa Rica v Jamaica                2.98%

(1D v 2A) v (1B v 2C)

United States v Canada             15.74%

United States v Panama              7.39%

United States v Jamaica             7.30%

Costa Rica v Canada                 6.80%

Mexico v Canada                     4.77%

United States v Honduras            3.91%

United States v El Salvador         3.52%

Costa Rica v Jamaica                3.19%

Saudi Arabia v Canada               3.13%

United States v Curaçao             2.90%

Combined

United States v Canada             17.73%

Mexico v Panama                    17.58%

United States v Panama             11.61%

Mexico v Canada                    10.49%

Mexico v Jamaica                   10.30%

United States v Jamaica             9.69%

Canada v Costa Rica                 9.08%

Panama v Costa Rica                 8.47%

Costa Rica v Jamaica                6.17%

Panama v Saudi Arabia               5.68%

Final

United States v Mexico             12.69%

Mexico v Costa Rica                 6.81%

United States v Panama              6.11%

Mexico v Canada                     5.79%

United States v Costa Rica          4.44%

United States v Saudi Arabia        4.07%

United States v Canada              3.87%

Mexico v Panama                     3.81%

Panama v Canada                     3.29%

United States v Jamaica             2.76%

2026 World Cup - Seeding Pots

So I spent some time today to change my software to be able to predict future rankings beyond only the next one which it could already do. Below is a prediction (not from a simulation) for the (28?) November 2025 FIFA ranking if all (known) matches go as expected. From this we can then determine, following earlier simulation posts, what the seeding pots will likely look like.

NOTE 1: This ranking doesn't include matches from the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup, the draw for which will happen on 10 April, nor does it include matches from 2026 World Cup qualifying groups that are still to be determined, notably the AFC fourth round and the CONCACAF third round. With the "big three" in CONCACAF already qualified though, those tournaments are unlikely to affect the top or second seeding bracket.

NOTE 2: the "+/-" columns here refer to the changes from the (also) predicted (23?) October 2025 ranking. That ranking follows on from predicted (18?) September and 10 July 2025 rankings.

Pos   Country                          Points    +/-      +/-

  1   Argentina                        1907.90     0     0.00
  2   Spain                            1886.50     0     8.85
  3   France                           1883.09     0     7.20
  4   England                          1844.01     0     9.76
  5   Brazil                           1798.25     0     0.00
  6   Netherlands                      1781.01     0     8.71
  7   Portugal                         1779.39    -1     7.29
  8   Belgium                          1766.80     0     2.84
  9   Italy                            1749.57     0     8.85
 10   Germany                          1747.84     0    10.22
 11   Croatia                          1729.21     0     6.49
 12   Uruguay                          1711.27     0     0.00
 13   Morocco                          1707.90     0     0.00
 14   Colombia                         1691.51     0     0.00
 15   Switzerland                      1670.53     1    13.57
 16   Japan                            1669.10     0     0.00
 17   Denmark                          1665.51     0    12.44
 18   United States                    1652.62     0     0.00
 19   Mexico                           1650.79     0     0.00
 20   Iran                             1648.88     0     0.00
 21   Senegal                          1646.63     0     0.00
 22   Austria                          1621.85     0     9.64
 23   South Korea                      1586.58     0     0.00
 24   Ecuador                          1574.99     0     0.00
 25   Ukraine                          1570.97     0     1.47
 26   Türkiye                          1561.46     0     0.35
 27   Australia                        1554.14     0     0.00
 28   Sweden                           1548.28     0     0.66
 29   Serbia                           1541.58     0    -2.50
 30   Egypt                            1538.15     0     0.00
 31   Canada                           1535.89     0     0.00
 32   Wales                            1535.04     2    10.65
 33   Algeria                          1529.76     0     0.00
 34   Poland                           1527.68    -2    -4.65
 35   Panama                           1524.44     0     0.00
 36   Hungary                          1523.24     3    15.55
 37   Russia                           1518.48     0     0.00
 38   Côte d'Ivoire                    1510.92     0     0.00
 39   Norway                           1510.69    -2    -2.67
 40   Czechia                          1499.61     0     1.75
 41   Nigeria                          1497.15     0     0.00
 42   Slovakia                         1493.96     0    -0.59
 43   Tunisia                          1491.75     0     0.00
 44   Cameroon                         1490.09     0     0.00
 45   Greece                           1487.73     2     6.61
 46   Mali                             1485.11     0     0.00
 47   Scotland                         1480.29    -2    -8.80
 48   Romania                          1478.11     1    11.12
 49   Costa Rica                       1468.50     0     0.00
 50   Venezuela                        1465.72     0     0.00
 51   South Africa                     1463.69     0     0.00
 52   Peru                             1457.57     0     0.00
 53   Chile                            1453.95     0     0.00
 54   Paraguay                         1452.54     0     0.00
 55   Qatar                            1448.25     0     0.00
 55   Uzbekistan                       1448.22     0     0.00
 57   Slovenia                         1446.28    -2    -3.36
 58   Saudi Arabia                     1418.66     0     0.00
 59   Democratic Republic of Congo     1417.14     0     0.00
 60   Iraq                             1404.54     0     0.00
 61   Jordan                           1400.21     0     0.00
 62   Ireland                          1397.79    -2   -15.04
 63   Jamaica                          1397.11     0     0.00
 64   Burkina Faso                     1391.24     0     0.00
 65   United Arab Emirates             1380.40     0     0.00
 66   North Macedonia                  1374.88    -1    -9.18
 67   Georgia                          1372.91     1     7.02
 68   Albania                          1370.91    -1     0.45
 69   Cape Verde Islands               1352.39     0     0.00
 70   Northern Ireland                 1346.98     3     9.68
 71   Ghana                            1344.44     0     0.00
 72   Honduras                         1342.51     0     0.00
 73   Finland                          1342.15     0     4.67
 74   Bosnia and Herzegovina           1335.24    -4   -16.25
 75   Iceland                          1328.84     0     0.70
 76   Montenegro                       1326.21     0    -1.32
 77   Israel                           1324.62     2     5.79
 78   Oman                             1323.60     0     0.00
 79   Gabon                            1320.44     0     0.00
 80   El Salvador                      1311.61     0     0.00
 81   Guinea                           1295.52     0     0.00
 82   Haiti                            1294.87     0     0.00
 83   Zambia                           1292.37     0     0.00
 84   Angola                           1291.93     0     0.00
 85   Bolivia                          1283.01     0     0.00
 86   Bahrain                          1280.06     0     0.00
 87   Uganda                           1277.84     0     0.00
 88   Syria                            1277.79     1     3.64
 89   New Zealand                      1276.87     0     0.00
 90   Curaçao                          1271.75     0     0.00
 91   Equatorial Guinea                1269.54     0     0.00
 92   China                            1260.81     0     0.00
 93   Thailand                         1260.39     2     3.83
 94   Benin                            1259.26     0     0.00
 95   Mozambique                       1254.32     0     0.00
 96   Bulgaria                         1251.27    -4   -16.22
 97   Tajikistan                       1231.74     1     4.27
 98   Trinidad and Tobago              1230.74     0     0.00
 99   Palestine                        1223.86     0     0.00
100   Vietnam                          1213.64     3     5.07
101   Namibia                          1210.83     0     0.00
102   Kyrgyzstan                       1208.03     0     0.00
103   Luxembourg                       1207.94    -5   -19.31
104   Tanzania                         1206.82     0     0.00
105   Lebanon                          1204.79     2     5.59
106   Kosovo                           1203.72    -5   -10.88
107   Guatemala                        1198.71     0     0.00
108   Belarus                          1198.15    -4   -10.26
109   Comoros                          1196.27     0     0.00
110   Kenya                            1186.79     0     0.00
111   Mauritania                       1182.51     0     0.00
112   Madagascar                       1175.34     0     0.00
113   Armenia                          1172.94    -1    -7.80
114   India                            1166.93     1     6.27
115   Sudan                            1162.72     0     0.00
116   Kazakhstan                       1157.30     0    -2.24
117   Libya                            1154.05     0     0.00
118   Zimbabwe                         1153.10     0     0.00
119   Togo                             1152.12     0     0.00
120   Sierra Leone                     1149.17     0     0.00
121   Guinea-Bissau                    1140.97     0     0.00
122   North Korea                      1138.97     0     0.00
123   Malaysia                         1134.28     4     8.08
124   Estonia                          1131.34    -1    -5.01
125   Indonesia                        1130.08     0     0.00
126   Gambia                           1128.72     0     0.00
127   Azerbaijan                       1125.48    -3    -9.37
128   Congo                            1122.91     0     0.00
129   Niger                            1120.66     0     0.00
130   Nicaragua                        1120.46     0     0.00
131   Rwanda                           1108.32     0     0.00
132   Cyprus                           1105.55    -1    -2.91
133   Malawi                           1102.49     0     0.00
134   Surinam                          1099.25     0     0.00
135   Kuwait                           1098.87     0     0.00
136   Turkmenistan                     1091.18     3    10.00
137   Dominican Republic               1085.92     0     0.00
138   Central African Republic         1082.50     0     0.00
139   Faroe Islands                    1080.74    -2    -1.97
140   Philippines                      1078.81     3    10.41
141   Lithuania                        1077.21     0    -1.59
142   Latvia                           1076.54    -2    -3.68
143   Botswana                         1071.82     0     0.00
144   St. Kitts and Nevis              1066.61     0     0.00
145   Burundi                          1065.91     0     0.00
146   Liberia                          1047.96     0     0.00
147   Solomon Islands                  1045.58     0     0.00
148   Fiji                             1043.44     0     0.00
149   New Caledonia                    1039.55     0     0.00
150   Hong Kong                        1038.10     0    -1.08
151   Yemen                            1037.27     2     9.36
151   Guyana                           1037.07     0     0.00
153   Ethiopia                         1030.85     0     0.00
154   Lesotho                          1020.57     0     0.00
155   Tahiti                           1019.04     0     0.00
156   Afghanistan                      1017.39     0    -0.65
157   Puerto Rico                      1007.50     0     0.00
158   Antigua and Barbuda              1004.67     0     0.00
159   Moldova                          1000.36    -2    -7.20
160   Eswatini                          997.93     0     0.00
161   Singapore                         995.04     0     1.08
162   Vanuatu                           991.59     0     0.00
163   Myanmar                           991.38     0     0.65
164   Bermuda                           987.24     0     0.00
165   Cuba                              980.63     0     0.00
166   St. Lucia                         978.50     0     0.00
167   St. Vincent and the Grenadines    974.86     0     0.00
168   Maldives                          970.23    -3   -10.41
169   Papua New Guinea                  969.17     0     0.00
170   Taiwan                            965.50    -2   -10.00
171   South Sudan                       953.77     0     0.00
172   Grenada                           953.46     0     0.00
173   Malta                             947.04    -2    -7.14
174   Barbados                          944.98     0     0.00
175   Andorra                           937.17     0    -4.04
176   Nepal                             925.60     0    -8.08
177   Belize                            916.85     0     0.00
178   Cambodia                          912.67     0     0.00
179   Montserrat                        904.54     0     0.00
180   Mauritius                         902.91     0     0.00
181   Chad                              902.62     0     0.00
182   Dominica                          901.07     0     0.00
183   Bhutan                            884.63     0    -9.36
184   American Samoa                    883.17     0     0.00
185   Mongolia                          879.75     0     0.00
186   Cook Islands                      877.53     0     0.00
187   Samoa                             876.41     0     0.00
188   Bangladesh                        869.10     0    -6.27
189   Brunei                            868.96     0    -5.59
190   Macao                             865.29     0     0.00
191   Eritrea                           855.56     0     0.00
192   Cayman Islands                    853.37     0     0.00
193   Aruba                             848.83     0     0.00
194   Djibouti                          848.18     0     0.00
195   Laos                              846.57    -2    -5.07
196   São Tomé and Príncipe             846.09     0     0.00
197   Tonga                             835.64     0     0.00
198   Guam                              823.08     0     0.00
199   Gibraltar                         822.56    -1    -4.95
200   Somalia                           818.96     0     0.00
201   Timor Leste                       811.59     0    -4.27
202   Pakistan                          809.10     0    -3.64
203   Bahamas                           807.36     0     0.00
203   Sri Lanka                         807.00     0    -3.83
205   Seychelles                        804.93     0     0.00
206   Turks and Caicos Islands          803.98     0     0.00
207   Liechtenstein                     800.10     0    -2.07
208   US Virgin Islands                 779.71     0     0.00
209   British Virgin Islands            768.47     0     0.00
210   Anguilla                          758.52     0     0.00
211   San Marino                        728.94     0    -1.35

From this we can then determine that the top seeds will be:

 1) United States (certain, hosts)

 2) Mexico (certain, hosts)

 3) Canada (certain, hosts)

 4) Argentina (CONMEBOL #1)

 5) Spain (UEFA Group E Winner)

 6) France (UEFA Group D Winner)

 7) England (UEFA Group K Winner)

 8) Brazil (CONMEBOL #3)

 9) Netherlands (UEFA Group G Winner)

10) Portugal (UEFA Group F Winner)

11) Belgium (UEFA Group J Winner)

12) Italy (UEFA Group I Winner)

Second seeds would then be (Germany by less than 2 FIFA ranking points!):

13) Germany (UEFA Group A Winner)

14) Croatia (UEFA Group L Winner)

15) Uruguay (CONMEBOL #2)

16) Morocco (CAF Group E Winner)

17) Colombia (CONMEBOL #4)

18) Switzerland (UEFA Group B Winner)

19) Japan (AFC Group C Winner)

20) Denmark (UEFA Group C Winner)

21) Iran (AFC Group A Winner)

22) Senegal (CAF Group B Winner)

23) Austria (UEFA Group H Winner)

24) South Korea (AFC Group B Winner)

Third seeds would then be:

25) Ecuador (CONMEBOL #5)

26) Australia (AFC Group C Runner Up)

27) Egypt (CAF Group A Winner)

28) Algeria (CAF Group G Winner)

29) Panama (CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner)

30) Côte d'Ivoire (CAF Group F Winner)

31) Tunisia (CAF Group H Winner)

32) Cameroon (CAF Group D Winner)

33) Costa Rica (CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner)

34) South Africa (CAF Group C Winner)

35) Paraguay (CONMEBOL #6)

36) Uzbekistan (AFC Group A Runner Up)

Finally, the fourth bracket would have the remaining teams (with the UEFA playoff winners and Intercontinental playoff winners only being determined in March 2026, several months after the finals draw which is expected to be held in December 2025):

- Ghana (CAF Group I Winner)

- Jordan (AFC Group B Runner Up)

- New Zealand (Oceania Winner)

- 4 x UEFA Playoff Winners (assuming the highest ranked teams of the November 2025 ranking: Ukraine? Türkiye? Sweden? Serbia? With Wales, Poland, Hungary and Norway being the next highest ranked teams)

- 1 x CONCACAF Third Round Group Winner (assuming the highest ranked teams of the predicted July 2025 ranking, one from: Jamaica? Honduras? El Salvador? Haiti?)

- 2 x AFC qualifier (again assuming the highest ranked teams of the predicted July 2025 ranking, 2 from: Saudi Arabia? Iraq? United Arab Emirates? Oman?)

- 2 x Intercontinental Playoff Winners

It already looks like for the top seeds the only uncertainties are Belgium and Italy, and possible top seeds are Germany, Uruguay and Morocco. Germany's fate will likely be sealed in June during the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League finals that they host, and Italy will be wanting to avoid slip ups in their home and away matches against their nearest 2026 World Cup Qualifying Group I challenger Norway. For Uruguay and Morocco it shouldn't depend on their own matches anymore, but rather whether Belgium and/or Italy lose points from matches they are expected to win during the qualifiers.