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Friday, October 17, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding: Oldest timeframe now closed

Next update: October 2018.

Assuming FIFA will again use the October 2017 ranking to determine the seeds, the 0.2 time frame (games played between 36 and 48 months ago relative to the release date) closed a couple of days ago.

It's not looking good for some of the big teams, but there's plenty of time to climb in the rankings.

FIFA Ranking: October 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 23 October.

Two matches left - both friendlies (although they are part of an important ASEAN competition - the AFF Suzuki Cup):

18/10 Cambodia - Myanmar
18/10 Laos - Timor Leste

Friday, September 26, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying: CONCACAF format and seeding proposal

Three days ago, ESPN's Fernando Palomo published insider details (in Spanish) regarding the proposal CONCACAF sent to its member federations.

The previous format featured 2 group stages. The first group stage has been replaced by two KO rounds in the proposed format.

September 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the September 2014 FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent.

The most popular opponent for the month of August were again Sierra Leone, this time far ahead of the pack - no less than 97 teams had the Stars as their recommended opponent. Aruba (45) and Armenia (32) were the other teams in the top 3.

Best teams to play against in October

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.

Friday, September 19, 2014

FIFA Ranking: October 2014 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 23 October.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these results, Haiti and Trinidad & Tobago are expected to climb more than 40 spots, with Dominican Republic, Lithuania, Togo, Cuba, Israel, Egypt, South Africa climbing 20 or more. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Slovenia and Moldova will drop more than 20 spots, with Bolivia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and New Caledonia dropping 15 or more.

FIFA Ranking: October 2014 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the October 2014 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins