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Friday, January 16, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (16 January 2015)

As explained earlier, AFC have told me they will use the most recent FIFA ranking available at the time of the draw.

With the preliminary round draw taking place two days before the February FIFA ranking release, the pots are already set. I don't quite understand why they couldn't wait for another 3 or 4 days.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 16 January 2015.

Very important: this is based on the fixtures list from If teams schedule other friendlies things will look different.

How a cancelled cup brought a job offer

First of all, let me say I'm not an expert when it comes to coaching, nor a scout. I rarely watch football matches because I'd rather spend time with my family. Even if I wanted to watch a game, my kids would quickly climb on my back clamoring for my undivided attention and/or the remote. Thus, I'm not able to say whether the quality of the football played by a certain team has improved or not.

Also, this post is about the quirks of the FIFA ranking, not about the value of a certain coach. I wanted to write this in December, but I didn't want to potentially ruin the job opportunity he received. Yes, I know. I'm overestimating my importance. I did say "potentially".

2018 FIFA World Cup draw: AFC will use FIFA ranking

In December I wrote to Mr. Windsor John, AFC’s Executive Director of Competitions Division, asking for details regarding the seeding criteria for the preliminary draw and group stage draw of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualifiers (Asian Zone).

Friday, January 9, 2015

FIFA Ranking: February 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 February.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

FIFA Ranking: February 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the February 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: February 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 February.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

79 - Costa Rica
59 - Egypt
44 - St. Vincent and the Grenadines
42 - Denmark
39 - Mozambique
38 - Mauritania
34 - Armenia
29 - Portugal
29 - Poland
29 - Ethiopia

Friday, December 19, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying: AFC draw dates and seeding leaked

As usual with AFC, it's very hard to get information regarding their competitions. In 7 years, they have replied only once to my e-mails.

However, the United Arab Emirates FA have posted the draw dates on their website. Use Google Translate if your Arabic grasp is lacking.