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Sunday, May 29, 2022

AFC Nations Cup 2023 qualification simulations (May 2022)

The qualification for the AFC Nations Cup 2023 is divided in two parts:

  • the Asian first and second stage in the qualification for the World Cup 2022 delivered 12 teams: the 8 group winners and the 4 best group runners-up (excluding host China) of the second group stage qualify. China was one of the four best runners-up;
  • the rest of the teams entered the separate qualification path for the remaining 11 berths in the 24-team AFC Nations Cup 2023: two play-offs in October 2021 to wittle the remaining teams down to 24 and a group stage with 6 groups of 4 teams. The 6 group winners and the 5 best group runners-up qualify.


China is as host, although they of course participated in the World Cup qualification, automatically qualified for the continental final. From the WC qualification part the 8 group winners qualified (Syria, Australia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Japan, United Arab Emirates and Korea Republic) together with the 4 best runners-up (Oman, Iraq, Vietnam and Lebanon).

Friday, May 27, 2022

CONCACAF Nations League 2022/23 simulations (May 2022)

The second edition of the CONCACAF Nations League starts in this June window. All 41 CONCACAF-members participate and are drawn in three leagues:

  • league A has 4 groups of 3 teams
  • league B has 4 groups of 4 teams
  • league C has 1 group of 4 teams and 3 groups of 3 teams

There are 4 match days in June and 2 in March next year. The four group winners in league A qualify for the Final Four in June 2023.

There is also promotion/relegation between the leagues: the winners of the groups in leagues B and C are promoted while the numbers last in each group in league A and B relegate. The draw of the groups was in April and seeded based on the CONCACAF ranking.

Thursday, May 26, 2022

World Cup 2022 qualification simulations (May 2022)

In this June window the qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar (to start in November this year) should finally come to a conclusion. The COVID-19 pandemic plus the Russian war in Ukraine disrupted much on a global scale. It also caused havoc in the original qualification schedules of the confederations for this tournament. It caused severe delays and a final tournament draw taking place in April, even before the qualification process was properly completed. 

I'm still unsure as to why FIFA decided to this schedule of events. There must be some totally football unrelated, probably commercial and for FIFA very profitable reasons behind this. At least, a fair draw was not their top priority, because also the decision to seed the three at the time of the draw unknown participants (one UEFA play-off path A winner and two interconfederational play-off winners) in pot 4, regardless of the ranking of the participating teams in each play-off was -to some degree- unfair and even contradictory to their own regulations.

CAF Nations Cup 2023 qualification simulations (May 2022)

This June window the group stage starts in the qualification for the AFCON 2023 in Cote d'Ivoire in June next year. In March preliminary play-offs were played to wittle the 54 entered African teams down to 48. Now the group stage with 12 groups of 4 teams starts with two matchdays in June, two in September and two in March next year. The 12 group winners and runners-up qualify for the 24-team continental final.

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

UEFA Nations League 2022/23 simulations (May 2022)

Let's focus on the UEFA Nations League 2022/2023. 


This competition will be played on six matchdays (4 this June window, 2 in the September window), with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals, a third place play-off and a final) in June next year.

There are 4 leagues, A - D. All leagues, except league D, consist of 4 groups with 4 teams per group. League D consists of two groups, one with 4 teams and one with 3 teams. All teams in a group play against each other home and away. 

Russia is suspended for this competition; they were originally drawn in group B-2.

Sunday, May 22, 2022

FIFA ranking June 2022: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA June 2022 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

 

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking June 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the June 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on June 23rd.

 

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.


Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: June 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable June 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday June 23rd. 


After the commotion of the March window and subsequent World Cup draw a very quiet period in NT-football began with room for the conclusion of the domestic and continental cup seasons in club football. However, the next NT-football window starts after next week and will span two weeks instead of the normal one week: from May 30th until June 14th. This because of the World Cup to be played from November this year.

FIFA ranking: June 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 281 currently scheduled matches up to and including June 14th, used to calculate the June 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since March 31st, (probably) counting for the June ranking, are presented.

 

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.