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Sunday, November 28, 2021

FIFA ranking: December 2021 probable ranking

The publishing date of the December 2021 ranking is pushed back one week. Probably to be able to include the complete Arab Cup in Qatar and the complete group phase of the South East Asian Championships in Singapore, the two regional tournaments taking the headlines this month. Matches in both tournaments are friendlies for ranking calculations purposes, so teams can lose points in knock-out matches also.


Here is the probable December 2021 ranking, to be published on Thursday December 23rd.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 56 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 56 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.

FIFA ranking December 2021: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the December 2021 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on December 23rd.


Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking December 2021: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA December 2021 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

Normally the home team's gained points will be the away-team's lost points. Still, both are given because there are in FIFA's calculation approach cases when they will not be the same: PSO-matches and knock-out matches in final competitions.

FIFA ranking: December 2021 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 56 currently scheduled matches up to and including December 19th, used to calculate the December 2021 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.


Also the already played matches since November 18th, (probably) counting for the December ranking, are presented.


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

Saturday, November 27, 2021

World Cup qualification simulations (27 November 2021)

The November window has been played. The decisions in the UEFA and CAF qualification groups are known now. Furthermore, yesterday the draw for the UEFA play-offs and the pairing of confederations in the interconfederational play-offs was made.

In two days time also the draw for the OFC qualification groups will be made. It seems the complete qualification for Oceania will be staged in Qatar in the March 2022 window.

Only the draw date for the CAF play-offs, said to be revealed last Thursday, is not made public yet. Now also the date of January 26th (in the middle of AFCON 2022) circulates. This date is important because it indicates which FIFA ranking will be used to seed the ten remaining teams. By the way, it's complete nonsense to compile a ranking while in the midst of a continental final tournament.

Just like in 2018 WC qualification CAF can't perform a straightforward final round draw with a set draw date and published procedures in advance. The powers that be in Africa still have a firm grasp on CAF decisions and are obviously still able to manipulate such decisions for their own good. This time it seems Egypt tries to get seeded by all means, not to much avail as you will read further on. 

Also there are ongoing investigations into possible match-fixing against South Africa (vs. Ghana) and into possible substitution rule violation against Benin (vs. Congo DR) on the last match day.  So I fear the last word isn't said about this at all. Anyway, sigh...

Thursday, November 18, 2021

FIFA ranking: November 2021 final preview

FIFA will publish the November ranking next Thursday November 25th. This final preview contains 138 matches, out of 145 matches played since October 18th. 


One team climbs to their highest ranking again:

Canada (40 first reached in December 1996)


One team drops to their lowest ranking again:

Liechtenstein (191 in July 2017)

Sunday, November 14, 2021

World Cup qualification simulations (14 November 2021)

The November window is halfway. UEFA and CAF stand for their final group matches where the remaining decisions will fall.

On request is here an update of the simulations for the qualification of the World Cup 2022 in Qatar after yesterday's matches.


Denmark and Germany were already qualified. Belgium, France and Brazil joined them last week. In these simulations also England and Argentina are 100% qualified now.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers, the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup).