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Sunday, November 14, 2021

World Cup qualification simulations (14 November 2021)

The November window is halfway. UEFA and CAF stand for their final group matches where the remaining decisions will fall.

On request is here an update of the simulations for the qualification of the World Cup 2022 in Qatar after yesterday's matches.


Denmark and Germany were already qualified. Belgium, France and Brazil joined them last week. In these simulations also England and Argentina are 100% qualified now.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers, the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup). 


UEFA

First the group stage of the qualification for the World Cup. The teams are ordered by their average group position:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Portugal

90,16

9,84

0,00

0,00

0,00

Serbia

9,84

90,16

0,00

0,00

0,00

Luxembourg

0,00

0,00

52,83

47,17

0,00

Republic of Ireland

0,00

0,00

47,17

52,83

0,00

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Spain

91,21

8,79

0,00

0,00

0,00

Sweden

8,79

91,21

0,00

0,00

0,00

Greece

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

0,00

Georgia

0,00

0,00

0,00

99,97

0,03

Kosovo

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,03

99,97

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Italy

51,94

48,06

0,00

0,00

0,00

Switzerland

48,06

51,94

0,00

0,00

0,00

Northern Ireland

0,00

0,00

90,24

9,76

0,00

Bulgaria

0,00

0,00

9,76

90,24

0,00

Lithuania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

France

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Finland

0,00

68,76

31,24

0,00

0,00

Ukraine

0,00

31,24

35,76

33,00

0,00

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,00

0,00

33,00

67,00

0,00

Kazakhstan

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Belgium

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Wales

0,00

57,01

42,99

0,00

0,00

Czech Republic

0,00

42,99

57,01

0,00

0,00

Estonia

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Belarus

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Denmark

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Scotland

0,00

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Israel

0,00

0,00

67,29

32,71

0,00

0,00

Austria

0,00

0,00

32,71

67,29

0,00

0,00

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

99,85

0,15

Moldova

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,15

99,85

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Netherlands

89,52

6,16

4,32

0,00

0,00

0,00

Turkey

4,16

82,84

13,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Norway

6,32

11,00

82,68

0,00

0,00

0,00

Montenegro

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

0,00

Latvia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Croatia

61,15

38,85

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Russia

38,85

61,15

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Slovenia

0,00

0,00

55,64

44,36

0,00

0,00

Slovakia

0,00

0,00

44,36

55,64

0,00

0,00

Malta

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

80,56

19,44

Cyprus

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

19,44

80,56

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

England

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Poland

0,00

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Albania

0,00

0,00

99,12

0,88

0,00

0,00

Hungary

0,00

0,00

0,88

99,12

0,00

0,00

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Germany

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

North Macedonia

0,00

64,30

35,70

0,00

0,00

0,00

Romania

0,00

35,70

63,84

0,46

0,00

0,00

Armenia

0,00

0,00

0,46

85,60

13,94

0,00

Iceland

0,00

0,00

0,00

13,94

86,06

0,00

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00



Then the play-offs. Teams can qualify for the play-offs as group runner-up (column 'nr2') or as one of the two best UNL group winners not already qualified (column 'via UNL'). In column 'PO' you see the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. 

The 6 best runners-up are seeded in the draw for the 6 semi-finals in the 3 paths. In columns 'seeded' and 'unseeded' you will find the respective probabilities and finally in column '%seeded' the chance to be seeded, given the team participates in the play-offs.

team

PO

nr2

via UNL

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

Wales

100,00

57,01

42,99

49,17

50,83

49,17

Poland

100,00

100,00

0,00

92,57

7,43

92,57

Austria

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Czech Republic

100,00

42,99

57,01

13,55

86,45

13,55

Scotland

100,00

100,00

0,00

40,36

59,64

40,36

Sweden

91,21

91,21

0,00

80,88

10,33

88,67

Serbia

90,16

90,16

0,00

90,16

0,00

100,00

Turkey

82,84

82,84

0,00

18,58

64,26

22,43

Finland

68,76

68,76

0,00

0,07

68,69

0,10

North Macedonia

64,30

64,30

0,00

0,00

64,30

0,00

Russia

61,15

61,15

0,00

60,79

0,36

99,41

Switzerland

51,94

51,94

0,00

51,92

0,02

99,96

Italy

48,06

48,06

0,00

47,97

0,09

99,81

Croatia

38,85

38,85

0,00

31,24

7,61

80,41

Romania

35,70

35,70

0,00

0,00

35,70

0,00

Ukraine

31,24

31,24

0,00

0,00

31,24

0,00

Norway

11,00

11,00

0,00

2,15

8,85

19,55

Portugal

9,84

9,84

0,00

9,84

0,00

100,00

Spain

8,79

8,79

0,00

8,77

0,02

99,77

Netherlands

6,16

6,16

0,00

1,98

4,18

32,14



The probability to win a play-off semi-final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for the play-offs. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD8).

Poland

77,17

[77,17]

4,50

Serbia

73,97

[82,04]

3,63

Sweden

69,52

[76,22]

24,35

Wales

53,80

[53,80]

6,59

Russia

47,50

[77,68]

9,96

Switzerland

46,50

[89,53]

-20,55

Italy

45,20

[94,05]

23,41

Czech Republic

34,24

[34,24]

-1,38

Scotland

32,92

[32,92]

1,77

Croatia

27,83

[71,63]

-0,77

Turkey

21,82

[26,34]

4,67

Austria

16,43

[16,43]

2,10

Finland

11,12

[16,17]

7,68

Portugal

8,94

[90,85]

-1,86

Spain

8,03

[91,35]

-32,05

Ukraine

7,55

[24,17]

-2,26

North Macedonia

6,58

[10,23]

5,68

Romania

4,32

[12,10]

-5,67

Norway

3,31

[30,09]

-14,65

Netherlands

3,25

[52,76]

-4,71

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,00

[0,00]

-5,21

Greece

0,00

[0,00]

-3,38

Israel

0,00

[0,00]

-0,51

England

0,00

[0,00]

-0,44

Armenia

0,00

[0,00]

-0,38

Albania

0,00

[0,00]

-0,23

Belgium

0,00

[0,00]

-0,18

France

0,00

[0,00]

-0,09

Iceland

0,00

[0,00]

-0,02



The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD8).

Italy

37,10

[82,08]

20,03

Poland

35,33

[45,78]

4,26

Sweden

34,41

[49,50]

9,79

Serbia

33,24

[44,94]

2,52

Switzerland

32,57

[70,04]

-8,59

Wales

27,53

[51,17]

3,22

Russia

19,34

[40,72]

4,13

Czech Republic

16,97

[49,56]

-0,90

Croatia

13,27

[47,68]

-0,46

Scotland

10,28

[31,23]

0,55

Turkey

7,54

[34,56]

1,33

Austria

6,55

[39,87]

1,60

Portugal

6,00

[67,11]

-1,64

Spain

5,81

[72,35]

-24,91

Finland

4,57

[41,10]

3,24

Ukraine

3,89

[51,52]

-1,00

Netherlands

1,65

[50,77]

-2,95

North Macedonia

1,56

[23,71]

1,42

Norway

1,28

[38,67]

-5,90

Romania

1,11

[25,69]

-1,95

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,00

[0,00]

-1,84

Greece

0,00

[0,00]

-1,14

England

0,00

[0,00]

-0,29

Israel

0,00

[0,00]

-0,15

Belgium

0,00

[0,00]

-0,15

Armenia

0,00

[0,00]

-0,10

France

0,00

[0,00]

-0,07

Albania

0,00

[0,00]

-0,04

Iceland

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01



Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD8).

team

nr1

PO

Qtot

diff

Denmark

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Germany

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Belgium

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,03

France

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,06

England

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,23

Spain

91,21

5,81

97,02

12,20

Portugal

90,16

6,00

96,16

0,42

Netherlands

89,52

1,65

91,17

-0,63

Italy

51,94

37,10

89,04

-4,70

Switzerland

48,06

32,57

80,63

16,14

Croatia

61,15

13,27

74,42

7,76

Russia

38,85

19,34

58,19

-4,09

Sweden

8,79

34,41

43,20

-27,32

Serbia

9,84

33,24

43,08

0,46

Poland

0,00

35,33

35,33

3,74

Wales

0,00

27,53

27,53

3,04

Czech Republic

0,00

16,97

16,97

-0,90

Turkey

4,16

7,54

11,70

4,93

Scotland

0,00

10,28

10,28

0,55

Norway

6,32

1,28

7,60

-11,82

Austria

0,00

6,55

6,55

1,60

Finland

0,00

4,57

4,57

3,16

Ukraine

0,00

3,89

3,89

-1,01

North Macedonia

0,00

1,56

1,56

1,42

Romania

0,00

1,11

1,11

-1,95

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,00

0,00

0,00

-1,88

Greece

0,00

0,00

0,00

-1,14

Israel

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,15

Armenia

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,10

Albania

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,04

Iceland

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,01



CAF

First the qualification groups. The teams are ordered by average position in the group.

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Algeria

91,45

8,55

0,00

0,00

Burkina Faso

8,55

91,45

0,00

0,00

Niger

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Djibouti

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Tunisia

89,31

10,43

0,26

0,00

Equatorial Guinea

10,49

85,68

3,83

0,00

Zambia

0,20

3,89

95,91

0,00

Mauritania

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Nigeria

90,45

9,55

0,00

0,00

Cape Verde Islands

9,55

90,45

0,00

0,00

Central African Republic

0,00

0,00

59,85

40,15

Liberia

0,00

0,00

40,15

59,85

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Cote d'Ivoire

57,02

42,98

0,00

0,00

Cameroon

42,98

57,02

0,00

0,00

Malawi

0,00

0,00

64,03

35,97

Mozambique

0,00

0,00

35,97

64,03

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Mali

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Uganda

0,00

100,00

0,00

0,00

Kenya

0,00

0,00

84,39

15,61

Rwanda

0,00

0,00

15,61

84,39

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Egypt

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Gabon

0,00

35,05

64,95

0,00

Libya

0,00

49,02

26,54

24,44

Angola

0,00

15,93

8,51

75,56

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Ghana

55,44

44,56

0,00

0,00

South Africa

44,56

55,44

0,00

0,00

Ethiopia

0,00

0,00

74,15

25,85

Zimbabwe

0,00

0,00

25,85

74,15

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Senegal

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Togo

0,00

52,43

46,69

0,88

Namibia

0,00

47,06

51,46

1,48

Congo

0,00

0,51

1,85

97,64

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Morocco

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Guinea-Bissau

0,00

65,68

28,23

6,09

Guinea

0,00

7,41

65,85

26,74

Sudan

0,00

26,91

5,92

67,17

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Congo DR

55,98

34,57

9,45

0,00

Benin

44,02

53,77

2,21

0,00

Tanzania

0,00

11,66

88,34

0,00

Madagascar

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00



Then the qualification for the play-off round. The top 5 play-off participants are seeded (based on the November 2021 ranking), the other 5 are unseeded. Below you see the probabilities to qualify as seeded or unseeded, the probability to be seeded given that a team is a group winner and the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. Also in the last column the difference in total qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD4).

team

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

total

diff Total

Senegal

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

0,00

Morocco

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

0,00

Egypt

21,08

78,92

21,08

100,00

1,59

Mali

0,09

99,91

0,09

100,00

15,28

Algeria

91,45

0,00

100,00

91,45

1,16

Nigeria

90,45

0,00

100,00

90,45

2,19

Tunisia

89,31

0,00

100,00

89,31

-8,06

Cote d'Ivoire

3,80

53,22

6,66

57,02

-12,50

Congo DR

0,00

55,98

0,00

55,98

31,26

Ghana

0,10

55,34

0,18

55,44

8,95

South Africa

0,00

44,56

0,00

44,56

-8,95

Benin

0,00

44,02

0,00

44,02

0,94

Cameroon

3,72

39,26

8,66

42,98

12,50

Equatorial Guinea

0,00

10,49

0,00

10,49

7,87

Cape Verde Islands

0,00

9,55

0,00

9,55

-2,17

Burkina Faso

0,00

8,55

0,00

8,55

-1,16

Zambia

0,00

0,20

0,00

0,20

0,19

Tanzania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-31,55

Uganda

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-15,28

Gabon

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,88

Libya

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,71

Madagascar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,65

Central African Republic

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,02



I've simulated the play-off round by determining the 5 seeds and 5 unseeds in each simulation and perform a random draw to generate the 5 play-off pairings. Also which team in each pairing plays home in the first leg is result of a random draw.

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for round 3) and in the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD4):

team

qualify

diff Q

Morocco

66,23

[66,23]

-0,74

Algeria

66,18

[72,37]

0,61

Senegal

64,40

[64,40]

-3,10

Nigeria

53,79

[59,47]

1,12

Tunisia

51,61

[57,79]

-9,12

Egypt

43,00

[43,00]

0,52

Mali

38,52

[38,52]

7,72

Cote d'Ivoire

27,50

[48,23]

-5,29

Ghana

21,47

[38,73]

2,62

Cameroon

18,46

[42,95]

6,40

South Africa

15,63

[35,08]

-2,34

Congo DR

14,66

[26,19]

8,62

Benin

10,18

[23,13]

0,77

Burkina Faso

3,41

[39,88]

-0,21

Cape Verde Islands

2,46

[25,76]

-0,30

Equatorial Guinea

2,46

[23,45]

1,86

Zambia

0,04

[20,00]

0,04

Tanzania

0,00

[0,00]

-4,78

Uganda

0,00

[0,00]

-3,93

Gabon

0,00

[0,00]

-0,23

Madagascar

0,00

[0,00]

-0,12

Libya

0,00

[0,00]

-0,11

Central African Republic

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01




CONMEBOL

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 5. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points,  compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD12):

team

WC

diff

IPO

diff

Brazil

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Argentina

100,00

0,11

0,00

-0,11

Colombia

61,11

-5,73

23,07

1,43

Ecuador

56,56

15,72

22,93

-6,82

Uruguay

49,63

-20,95

23,67

6,94

Chile

22,30

11,85

18,69

4,15

Peru

9,63

1,99

10,21

-0,07

Paraguay

0,41

-2,21

0,73

-4,11

Bolivia

0,36

-0,70

0,67

-1,23

Venezuela

0,00

-0,08

0,03

-0,18




CONCACAF

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup as number one to three in the group or to qualify for the interconfederational play-off in June 2022 as group number 4. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD6):

team

WC

diff

IPO

diff

Mexico

96,39

-2,62

3,20

2,36

USA

96,04

4,60

3,54

-3,07

Canada

80,77

1,07

14,95

1,62

Panama

21,35

6,22

51,52

16,03

Jamaica

2,69

-2,46

11,91

-4,25

Costa Rica

2,56

-5,35

12,66

-6,19

El Salvador

0,13

-1,04

1,62

-3,47

Honduras

0,07

-0,42

0,60

-3,03




AFC

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Iran

83,03

16,93

0,04

0,00

0,00

0,00

Korea Republic

16,95

79,82

2,91

0,25

0,07

0,00

Iraq

0,01

1,52

39,00

31,71

19,07

8,69

Lebanon

0,01

1,35

37,69

31,36

20,38

9,21

United Arab Emirates

0,00

0,30

13,40

22,99

34,93

28,38

Syria

0,00

0,08

6,96

13,69

25,55

53,72

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Saudi Arabia

45,61

29,66

20,65

4,01

0,07

0,00

Australia

34,15

33,80

26,89

4,95

0,21

0,00

Japan

18,96

32,78

39,32

8,48

0,45

0,01

Oman

1,26

3,60

12,08

68,07

14,34

0,65

China PR

0,02

0,16

1,02

13,66

70,47

14,67

Vietnam

0,00

0,00

0,04

0,83

14,46

84,67



To qualify for the 5th place play-off and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off. Also columns are given with the difference in probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD4):

team

qualify

diff Q

win

diff win

Japan

39,32

-1,53

24,54

[62,41]

0,77

Iraq

39,00

-3,81

23,89

[61,26]

-3,88

Lebanon

37,69

3,25

10,74

[28,50]

-0,19

Australia

26,89

11,41

16,15

[60,06]

7,39

Saudi Arabia

20,65

-3,31

8,71

[42,18]

-0,86

United Arab Emirates

13,40

2,93

6,01

[44,85]

0,90

Oman

12,08

-4,92

4,58

[37,91]

-0,88

Syria

6,96

1,72

2,69

[38,65]

0,35

Korea Republic

2,91

-3,49

2,22

[76,29]

-2,76

China PR

1,02

-1,45

0,44

[43,14]

-0,28

Iran

0,04

-0,60

0,03

[75,00]

-0,49

Vietnam

0,04

-0,20

0,00

[00,00]

-0,07



To qualify for the World Cup as number one or two in the group. In the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD4):

team

WC

diff

Iran

99,96

0,69

Korea Republic

96,77

4,79

Saudi Arabia

75,27

6,41

Australia

67,95

-12,39

Japan

51,74

9,89

Oman

4,86

-3,63

Iraq

1,53

-2,66

Lebanon

1,36

-2,08

United Arab Emirates

0,30

-0,61

China PR

0,18

-0,27

Syria

0,08

-0,13

Vietnam

0,00

-0,01




Pots for the final draw

These pots are based on the FIFA ranking after the March 2022 window when 30 participants are known. Pot 1 contains Qatar and the 7 top ranked participants, pot 2 contains the next 8 highest ranked participants, etc. The teams are ordered by ascending weighted average pot distribution. In the first column the probability to qualify for the World Cup (without IPO's of course) is given:

team

WC

pot1

pot2

pot3

pot4

Qatar

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Brazil

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Belgium

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

France

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

England

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Argentina

100,00

99,62

0,38

0

0

Spain

97,02

92,02

5,00

0

0

Italy

89,04

89,04

0

0

0

----------------------------

Portugal

96,16

9,04

87,12

0

0

Denmark

100,00

1,42

98,58

0

0

Germany

100,00

0,0

99,12

0,88

0

Mexico

96,39

6,59

86,70

3,10

0

USA

96,04

2,26

88,02

5,76

0

Netherlands

91,17

0,0

91,10

0,07

0

Switzerland

80,63

0,0

80,49

0,14

0

Iran

99,96

0,0

1,17

98,09

0,70

----------------------------

Croatia

74,42

0

42,25

32,17

0

Korea Republic

96,77

0

0,01

49,02

47,74

Colombia

61,11

0,01

44,97

16,13

0

Senegal

64,40

0

11,19

52,25

0,96

Uruguay

49,63

0

39,01

10,62

0

Algeria

66,18

0

4,33

54,98

6,87

Morocco

66,23

0

3,23

55,01

7,99

Canada

80,77

0

0

7,66

73,11

----------------------------

Australia

67,95

0

0

36,05

31,90

Saudi Arabia

75,27

0

0

1,00

74,27

Russia

58,19

0

0

39,57

18,62

Japan

51,74

0

0,06

48,77

2,91

Sweden

43,20

0

11,30

31,90

0

Tunisia

51,61

0

0,38

32,71

18,52

Nigeria

53,79

0

0,09

26,75

26,95

Serbia

43,08

0

0

42,60

0,48

Ecuador

56,56

0

0

1,41

55,15

Poland

35,33

0

0,47

34,86

0

Egypt

43,00

0

0,02

9,33

33,65

Mali

38,52

0

0

3,47

35,05

Wales

27,53

0

3,44

24,09

0

Chile

22,30

0

1,20

21,10

0

Cote d'Ivoire

27,50

0

0

6,99

20,51

Czech Republic

16,97

0

0,01

16,26

0,70

Ghana

21,47

0

0

2,48

18,99

Panama

21,35

0

0

0

21,35

Cameroon

18,46

0

0

7,38

11,08

South Africa

15,63

0

0

0

15,63

Congo DR

14,66

0

0

0

14,66

Peru

9,63

0

0,35

9,28

0

Turkey

11,70

0

0

2,57

9,13

Scotland

10,28

0

0

2,67

7,61

Benin

10,18

0

0

0

10,18

Austria

6,55

0

0

6,29

0,26

Norway

7,60

0

0

1,49

6,11

Ukraine

3,89

0

0,01

3,87

0,01

Oman

4,86

0

0

0

4,86

Finland

4,57

0

0

0,05

4,52

Burkina Faso

3,41

0

0

0,25

3,16

Jamaica

2,69

0

0

0,15

2,54

Costa Rica

2,56

0

0

0,37

2,19

Cape Verde Islands

2,46

0

0

0,02

2,44

Equatorial Guinea

2,46

0

0

0

2,46

North Macedonia

1,56

0

0

0

1,56

Iraq

1,53

0

0

0

1,53

Lebanon

1,36

0

0

0

1,36

Romania

1,11

0

0

0,16

0,95

Paraguay

0,41

0

0

0,23

0,18

Bolivia

0,36

0

0

0

0,36

United Arab Emirates

0,30

0

0

0

0,30

China PR

0,18

0

0

0

0,18

El Salvador

0,13

0

0

0

0,13

Syria

0,08

0

0

0

0,08

Honduras

0,07

0

0

0

0,07

Zambia

0,04

0

0

0

0,04



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

16 comments:

  1. Thx, Ed!

    There is a large difference between your percentages and the bookies' regarding 1st spot in UEFA group C, yours 52/48 and the bookies' 73/27.

    Can you explain why?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I don't know their approach. Mine is based on scored goals for a team, dependent on the elo win expectancy.

    NIR-ITA We = 0.11; SUI-BUL We = 0.95. The number of scored goals at very high We's tend to climb a bit faster than the number of scored goals for away playing teams with very low match We's (for the home team, that is).
    So my model expects Switzerland to score more goals than Italy, based on both the match We's itself (95% vs. 89%) and on the curve of the probability distribution. That makes the result of this fight something of a coin toss as Switzerland in most cases only needs two more goals than Italy scores.
    In case the results are f.i, NIR-ITA 0-1 and SUI-BUL 3-0 then Switzerland has already the upper hand because of the deciding tiebreaker rule 'away-goals scored in both matches with Italy'.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Ed.... - impatiently waiting for your simulation update tomorrow. :-)

    Especially regarding Denmark's top seed percentage for the WC draw in april, - it must below 1% now with last night's defeat at Hampden Park.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Henrik, that won't be tomorrow, but at the weekend at the earliest :)
      Yeah, Denmark's pot 1 chances should be minimal now, if existent at all.

      But who's gonna get the final pot 1 spot if Italy fails to qualify depends of course a bit on which ranking FIFA decides to use as the seeding ranking: February or March or maybe an even earlier one. As long as that's not clear, I assume March because that's the most logical one for me.
      But in any case: sorry to say but it won't be Denmark :)

      Delete
    2. but if not Italy, not Portugal, not Denmark --- the lucky wnner will be Germany

      Delete
    3. Everything points in that case to one of the CONCACAF top dogs: Mexico or USA.

      Delete
    4. Well, Ed.... - both Italy and Portugal can fail in the european playoffs in March. Then Denmark is 7th with Mexico and USA as dark Horsens.... - as you mention.

      Still dreaming, you know.... :-)

      Delete
    5. Do you know which fifa ranking will be used for the final World Cup draw in April 22? Thanks

      Delete
    6. See my reply above (16 Nov 10:14 AM).

      Delete
  4. Denmark (9th), Holland (10th), Switzerland (14th) and Germany (12th) are all within 12 points of each other, so they all have a fair chance at that 7th spot, provided Italy AND Portugal fail to qualify, and Mexico (11th) - and maybe USA - doesn't do too well in the remaining qualifier games they have. Note that Denmark and Holland are now less than a point apart, so it will also matter who they play in the March friendlies.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Actually, USA is above Mexico now.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Ed, when you redo your analysis this weekend you will give percentage for Croatia to remain in Pot 2 correct? thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would have to be high now that only one of Portugal and Italy can qualify for the World Cup.

      South American qualifying in January/Feb will be key.

      Delete