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Friday, June 24, 2011

FIFA Ranking: June 2011 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on June 29th.

The deadline for matches was yesterday, but I'm sure FIFA will include at least one match - the Gold Cup final between USA and Mexico.

This is how the totals can change for these two teams:

Mexico (Loss: 913, PSO loss: 944, PSO win: 976, Win: 1007)
USA (Loss: 799, PSO loss: 834, PSO win: 869, Win: 904)

In the table below, the values displayed for these two teams are the lowest possible - even if they lose their totals won't drop.

Lots of movement in the top 10:

CONMEBOL teams lose places (Brazil -2, Argentina -4), with Uruguay out of the top 10 - replaced by Norway. Italy, England, Croatia climb 2 or more places.

Best movers:

39 - Zimbabwe
33 - Liechtenstein
32 - Liberia

Worst movers:

-37 - New Zealand
-20 - Cuba
-19 - Grenada

Best movers in the top 50:

17 - Jamaica
13 - Belarus
11 - Mexico

Mexico can still improve.

Worst movers in the top 50:

-18 - Ghana
-14 - Chile
-11 - Uruguay, Romania and Lithuania

Côte d'Ivoire replace Ghana as the top team in Africa. Burkina Faso replace South Africa in the African top 5.

Mexico replace USA as the top team in CONCACAF. Jamaica overtake Honduras for 3rd. Panama replace Costa Rica in the top 5.

Fiji overtake New Caledonia for 2nd place in OFC.

Italy replace Portugal in the European top 5.

Five teams will improve their best ever ranking

Côte d'Ivoire (13th - 16th in November 2009)
Montenegro (15th - 24th in April 2011)
Central African Republic (91st - 111th in December 2010)
Belize (154th - 157th in May 2002)
Comoros (164th - 171st in May 2010)

Two teams will return to their best ever ranking:

England (4th - first achieved in December 1997)
Burkina Faso (37th - first achieved in October 2010)

Four teams will return to their worst ever ranking:

Bahamas (197th - first happened in March 1999)
Timor-Leste (202nd - first happened in February 2008)
Papua New Guinea (203rd - first happened in July 2009)
San Marino (203rd - first happened in July 2009)

Six teams will have their worst ever ranking:

Colombia (54th - 51st in February 2009)
Saudi Arabia (92nd - 88th in April 2011)
Iceland (122nd - 117th in August 2007)
Lesotho (178th - 177th in April 2011)
Mauritania (183rd - 182nd in May 2003)
Andorra (203rd - 202nd in November 2009)

June 2011 rank - Team - June 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1871 0 14
2 Netherlands 1661 0 -41
3 Germany 1417 1 4
4 England 1146 2 -17
5 Brazil 1130 -2 -295
6 Italy 1059 3 40
7 Portugal 1046 1 -6
8 Croatia 1033 2 42
9 Argentina 979 -4 -288
10 Norway 972 1 -15
11 Greece 959 1 -26
12 Japan 925 2 -36
13 Côte d'Ivoire 922 8 55
14 France 920 5 37
15 Montenegro 915 9 95
16 Russia 914 2 18
17 Mexico 913 11 111
18 Uruguay 909 -11 -185
19 Sweden 884 9 82
20 Denmark 857 7 49
21 Slovenia 833 -4 -70
22 Australia 829 -2 -47
23 Turkey 820 7 25
24 USA 799 -2 -56
25 Serbia 797 -9 -110
26 Korea Republic 787 5 33
27 Chile 782 -14 -185
28 Slovakia 779 -2 -30
29 Switzerland 778 -4 -41
30 Israel 771 3 62
31 Republic of Ireland 752 3 71
32 Paraguay 743 -9 -104
33 Ghana 735 -18 -183
34 Egypt 727 2 51
35 Belgium 691 2 37
36 Czech Republic 670 -4 -52
37 Burkina Faso 661 7 61
38 Jamaica 656 17 110
39 Bosnia-Herzegovina 642 6 48
40 Belarus 636 13 79
41 Nigeria 635 -2 -2
42 Ukraine 620 -7 -58
43 Senegal 619 -3 6
44 Honduras 613 -1 10
45 Hungary 603 7 44
46 Bulgaria 599 0 7
47 South Africa 597 -9 -56
48 Cameroon 595 1 23
49 Peru 583 5 35
50 Iran 578 -2 3
51 Algeria 575 -10 -34
52 Panama 574 15 81
53 Romania 571 -11 -36
54 Colombia 564 -4 0
55 Costa Rica 561 1 20
56 Georgia 530 1 -6
57 Tunisia 527 4 0
58 Lithuania 526 -11 -51
59 Albania 524 -9 -40
60 Gabon 517 -1 -12
61 Scotland 513 5 -4
62 Northern Ireland 498 3 -22
63 Libya 494 -5 -40
63 Morocco 494 10 49
65 Austria 479 9 36
66 Guinea 475 -4 -49
67 Poland 474 4 25
68 Ecuador 473 -4 -50
69 Venezuela 471 -1 -18
70 Armenia 462 -8 -62
71 Malawi 454 1 8
72 El Salvador 434 15 43
73 Zambia 433 16 50
74 Botswana 431 -5 -48
75 China PR 426 2 -12
76 Finland 419 5 3
77 Uganda 417 7 15
78 Mali 416 -8 -35
79 Estonia 399 -4 -41
80 Cyprus 398 9 15
81 Cape Verde Islands 397 -2 -24
82 Latvia 388 -5 -50
83 Canada 386 -7 -53
84 Jordan 385 9 7
85 Moldova 383 1 -11
86 Uzbekistan 381 -3 -22
87 Benin 380 -7 -38
87 Zimbabwe 380 39 161
89 Haiti 377 7 29
90 Trinidad and Tobago 374 5 21
91 Central African Republic 370 22 107
92 Saudi Arabia 366 -4 -20
93 Bolivia 356 9 44
94 Qatar 355 -2 -25
95 Sierra Leone 348 23 102
96 Iraq 346 -7 -37
97 New Zealand 345 -37 -183
98 FYR Macedonia 338 -13 -60
99 Sudan 337 5 42
100 Niger 331 -1 -4
101 Cuba 330 -20 -86
102 Angola 329 2 34
102 Bahrain 329 -5 -9
102 Gambia 329 1 21
102 Kuwait 329 -1 9
106 Mozambique 327 -12 -31
107 Oman 298 0 4
108 Suriname 296 4 29
109 Syria 290 -5 -5
110 United Arab Emirates 288 1 15
111 Antigua and Barbuda 286 -11 -36
112 Azerbaijan 282 -4 -6
113 Togo 279 -4 -6
114 Faroe Islands 273 22 105
114 Wales 273 0 15
116 Guyana 267 -6 -17
117 Grenada 265 -19 -72
118 Guatemala 262 6 40
119 Korea DPR 255 -4 0
120 Liechtenstein 253 33 137
121 St. Kitts and Nevis 248 -2 3
122 Iceland 244 -6 -10
123 Thailand 239 -3 -3
124 Congo DR 238 2 19
125 Liberia 232 32 139
126 Kazakhstan 231 13 80
126 Tanzania 231 -9 -21
128 Luxembourg 213 -3 -8
129 Kenya 209 -6 -18
130 Congo 206 -9 -26
131 Yemen 199 -2 -4
132 Indonesia 195 -2 -5
133 Dominica 193 -2 0
134 Rwanda 189 -12 -39
135 Tajikistan 180 0 9
136 Ethiopia 169 -8 -49
137 Puerto Rico 167 -5 -13
138 Madagascar 166 0 2
139 Burundi 164 10 37
140 Vietnam 159 -6 -13
141 Barbados 156 -9 -24
142 Singapore 155 2 15
143 Turkmenistan 147 -2 -2
144 Malaysia 146 -1 2
145 Guinea-Bissau 142 -9 -26
146 Hong Kong 141 0 3
147 India 137 -2 -2
148 Nepal 136 -1 1
149 Equatorial Guinea 131 -7 -15
150 Curacao 128 2 7
151 Maldives 126 -3 -7
152 Chad 123 -3 -4
153 Namibia 117 -13 -33
154 Belize 112 18 46
154 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 112 -1 -4
156 Fiji 103 -1 0
157 Swaziland 101 2 12
158 New Caledonia 97 -7 -26
159 Philippines 96 -3 0
160 Cayman Islands 90 -2 0
161 Malta 83 0 -1
161 Nicaragua 83 5 8
163 Bangladesh 81 0 2
164 Comoros 80 24 61
165 Chinese Taipei 77 -5 -9
166 Afghanistan 75 -2 -2
167 Myanmar 72 0 -2
167 Palestine 72 4 5
169 Kyrgyzstan 70 0 0
169 Pakistan 70 -1 -2
171 Sri Lanka 69 -2 -1
172 Dominican Republic 66 0 0
173 Vanuatu 64 -8 -12
174 Cambodia 57 2 1
174 Laos 57 0 0
174 Tahiti 57 0 0
177 Lebanon 55 1 4
178 Lesotho 46 -2 -10
179 Mongolia 41 0 -7
180 Bermuda 40 -18 -40
180 Solomon Islands 40 2 0
182 British Virgin Islands 38 1 0
183 Macau 32 1 0
183 Mauritania 32 -3 -13
185 St. Lucia 31 0 0
186 Eritrea 29 -5 -13
187 Samoa 26 -1 0
188 Somalia 23 -1 0
189 Mauritius 17 0 -1
190 Seychelles 15 4 4
190 Tonga 15 0 -2
192 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 1 0
193 Djibouti 12 -1 -3
193 US Virgin Islands 12 7 9
195 Cook Islands 10 -5 -7
195 Guam 10 0 0
197 Anguilla 9 5 9
197 Bahamas 9 -1 0
197 Brunei Darussalam 9 -1 0
200 Aruba 7 -1 0
201 Bhutan 6 -5 -3
202 Timor-Leste 3 -2 0
203 American Samoa 0 -1 0
203 Andorra 0 -1 0
203 Montserrat 0 -1 0
203 Papua New Guinea 0 -1 0
203 San Marino 0 -1 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: UEFA pots (24 June 2011)

I don't expect teams will schedule friendlies between now and the July 30 draw, so this is the final version.

Romania and Estonia lost their games, so no changes from last time.

Looking at the May 20 simulations, two teams managed to pull off upsets.

Faroe Islands defeated Estonia and managed to climb in Pot 5 at the expense of Iceland (favorites at that time) and Wales (front runners after defeating Northern Ireland). Wales missed the fifth pot by 0.0691559 points. Faroe Islands have 273.4821429, while Wales have 273.412987. More info on Faroe Islands vs. Wales.

Poland defeated Argentina and managed to overtake Armenia for a place in the fourth pot. In May when I found out Poland were to play Argentina I thought they will end up in the fifth pot as Austria did in 2007. However, Argentina brought a B-team and Poland took the 3 points. With a draw, they would have been in the fifth pot.

1 Spain                    1588
 2 Netherlands              1542
 3 Germany                  1305
 4 England                  1146
 5 Portugal                 1076
 6 Italy                    1059
 7 Croatia                  1033
 8 Norway                    972
 9 Greece                    959
--------------------------------
10 France                    920
11 Montenegro                915
12 Russia                    914
13 Sweden                    884
14 Denmark                   857
15 Slovenia                  833
16 Turkey                    820
17 Serbia                    797
18 Slovakia                  779
--------------------------------
19 Switzerland               778
20 Israel                    771
21 Republic of Ireland       752
22 Belgium                   691
23 Czech Republic            670
24 Bosnia-Herzegovina        642
25 Belarus                   636
26 Ukraine                   620
27 Hungary                   603
--------------------------------
28 Bulgaria                  599
29 Romania                   571
30 Georgia                   530
31 Lithuania                 526
32 Albania                   524
33 Scotland                  513
34 Northern Ireland          498
35 Austria                   479
36 Poland                    474
--------------------------------
37 Armenia                   462
38 Finland                   419
39 Estonia                   399
40 Cyprus                    398
41 Latvia                    388
42 Moldova                   383
43 FYR Macedonia             338
44 Azerbaijan                282
45 Faroe Islands             273
--------------------------------
45 Wales                     273
47 Liechtenstein             253
48 Iceland                   244
49 Kazakhstan                231
50 Luxembourg                213
51 Malta                      83
52 Andorra                     0
52 San Marino                  0

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece
Pot 2: France, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia
Pot 3: Switzerland, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary
Pot 4: Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Lithuania, Albania, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland
Pot 5: Armenia, Finland, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands
Pot 6: Wales, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

Differences compared to the 2010 World Cup seeding:

Best movers (pots):

4 - Montenegro
3 - Slovenia
2 - Norway and Slovakia
1 - England, Denmark, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Hungary, Georgia, Albania, Austria, Estonia and Faroe Islands

Worst movers (pots):

-2 - Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Scotland, Poland, Finland and Wales
-1 - France, Israel, Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Iceland and Kazakhstan

Differences compared to the EURO 2012 seeding:

Best movers (pots):

3 - Montenegro
2 - Norway and Slovenia
1 - Greece, Belgium, Belarus, Hungary, Georgia, Albania, Azerbaijan and Faroe Islands

Worst movers (pots):

-2 - Romania, Finland and Wales
-1 - France, Russia, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Cyprus, Latvia, FYR Macedonia, Liechtenstein, Iceland and Kazakhstan

Pots based on the Elo Ratings

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Croatia, Italy, Sweden, France
Pot 2: Republic of Ireland, Russia, Turkey, Norway, Ukraine, Switzerland, Greece, Denmark, Serbia
Pot 3: Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Israel, Montenegro, Poland, Slovenia, Scotland, Belgium
Pot 4: Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Slovakia, Belarus, Finland, Austria, Lithuania, Wales, Georgia
Pot 5: FYR Macedonia, Cyprus, Albania, Northern Ireland, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, Armenia, Iceland
Pot 6: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Liechtenstein, Malta, Luxembourg, Andorra, San Marino

Differences compared to the Elo Ratings pots:

2 - Slovakia
1 - Norway, Greece, Montenegro, Slovenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Hungary, Albania, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan and Faroe Islands

-2 - Wales
-1 - France, Sweden, Switzerland, Republic of Ireland, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Scotland, Poland, Finland and Iceland

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: Chinese to gain the most

AFC had to drop their beloved performance based seeding and will use the July FIFA ranking for the group stage draw.

Using the simulation results to determine the teams qualified for the group stage, let's see the teams affected by this change in the seeding procedure.

Pots using the AFC performance based seeding:

Pot 1: Japan, Korea Republic, Australia, Korea DPR, Bahrain
Pot 2: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Uzbekistan, United Arab Emirates
Pot 3: Syria, Oman, Jordan, Iraq, Singapore
Pot 4: China PR, Kuwait, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Lebanon

Pots using the FIFA ranking:

Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan

Moving up:

3 - China PR
1 - Iran, Jordan, Kuwait

Moving down:

-3 - Korea DPR
-1 - Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Singapore

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Australia and 2010 FIFA World Cup seeding

Fans of AFC teams seem to think it's impossible for their teams to be seeded for the final World Cup draw using the FIFA ranking. I'll take Australia as an example since there was recently an article on The Roar (Thanks George Mladenov!) discussing the ranking.

As you may remember, FIFA used the October 2009 ranking to determine the seeds for the final draw (based on feeling, wouldn't you know it...)

Australia were way down in 24th place, 253 points behind the last seed - England. And yet, it would have been possible for them to be seeded.

Let's focus first on competitive matches that Australia didn't win (after the 2007 Asian Cup)

26 Mar 2008 China PR - Australia 0 - 0 (WCQ)
07 Jun 2008 Iraq - Australia 1 - 0 (WCQ)
22 Jun 2008 Australia - China PR 0 - 1 (WCQ)
28 Jan 2009 Indonesia - Australia 0 - 0 (ACQ)
11 Feb 2009 Japan - Australia 0 - 0 (WCQ)
05 Mar 2009 Australia - Kuwait 0 - 1 (WCQ)
06 Jun 2009 Qatar - Australia 0 - 0 (WCQ)

Changing all these matches (with the exception of the one against Japan) to wins, would have taken Australia to 1026 points. Let's look a bit at the friendlies.

Canceling the friendlies against Singapore (0 - 0 on 22 Mar 2008), South Africa (2 - 2 on 19 Aug 2008) and Korea Republic (1 - 3 on 5 Sep 2009) would have taken Australia to 1109 points - 8 more than England.

Possible? Yes. Extremely difficult? Of course. However, FIFA might have kept the performance-ranking combo to determine the seeds, had Australia managed to be in the top 7 in October 2009.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, June 17, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (17 June 2011)

Next update: 8 July 2011.

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumption: Indonesia will somehow avoid being suspended by FIFA.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (17 June 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (17 June 2011)

Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (17 June 2011)

Japan: 100.00% in Pot 1
Australia: 100.00% in Pot 1
Korea Republic: 100.00% in Pot 1
Iran: 99.48% in Pot 1, 0.52% eliminated in QR2
China PR: 99.97% in Pot 1, 0.03% eliminated in QR2
Bahrain: 100.00% in Pot 2
Saudi Arabia: 94.56% in Pot 2, 5.44% eliminated in QR2
Qatar: 90.70% in Pot 2, 9.30% eliminated in QR2
Uzbekistan: 97.41% in Pot 2, 2.58% eliminated in QR2, 0.01% in Pot 1
Jordan: 98.69% in Pot 2, 0.77% eliminated in QR2, 0.54% in Pot 1
Kuwait: 81.77% in Pot 3, 17.48% in Pot 2, 0.75% eliminated in QR2
Syria: 83.34% in Pot 3, 16.66% eliminated in QR2
United Arab Emirates: 86.04% in Pot 3, 13.96% eliminated in QR2
Iraq: 91.42% in Pot 3, 7.51% eliminated in QR2, 1.07% in Pot 2
Oman: 98.66% in Pot 3, 1.25% eliminated in QR2, 0.09% in Pot 2
Korea DPR: 53.56% in Pot 4, 46.44% in Pot 3
Lebanon: 89.49% in Pot 4, 10.51% eliminated in QR2
Thailand: 73.27% in Pot 4, 17.64% eliminated in QR2, 9.09% in Pot 3
Turkmenistan: 60.31% in Pot 4, 39.67% eliminated in QR2, 0.02% in Pot 3
Singapore: 59.06% in Pot 4, 40.79% eliminated in QR2, 0.15% in Pot 3
India: 86.04% eliminated in QR2, 13.96% in Pot 4
Hong Kong: 94.56% eliminated in QR2, 5.44% in Pot 4
Maldives: 99.48% eliminated in QR2, 0.52% in Pot 4
Kyrgyzstan: 97.42% eliminated in QR2, 2.58% in Pot 4
Yemen: 92.49% eliminated in QR2, 6.55% in Pot 4, 0.96% in Pot 3
Indonesia: 60.33% eliminated in QR2, 39.39% in Pot 4, 0.28% in Pot 3
Tajikistan: 83.34% eliminated in QR2, 15.68% in Pot 4, 0.98% in Pot 3
Vietnam: 90.12% eliminated in QR2, 9.19% in Pot 4, 0.58% eliminated in QR1, 0.11% in Pot 3
Malaysia: 54.72% eliminated in QR2, 40.17% in Pot 4, 4.57% eliminated in QR1, 0.54% in Pot 3
Palestine: 80.11% eliminated in QR2, 17.59% in Pot 4, 2.30% eliminated in QR1
Nepal: 98.44% eliminated in QR2, 0.79% eliminated in QR1, 0.67% in Pot 4, 0.1% in Pot 3
Philippines: 69.59% eliminated in QR2, 29.76% eliminated in QR1, 0.65% in Pot 4
Myanmar: 89.14% eliminated in QR2, 9.62% eliminated in QR1, 1.24% in Pot 4
Laos: 66.01% eliminated in QR2, 33.96% eliminated in QR1, 0.03% in Pot 4
Cambodia: 66.04% eliminated in QR1, 33.96% eliminated in QR2
Macau: 99.42% eliminated in QR1, 0.58% eliminated in QR2
Timor-Leste: 99.21% eliminated in QR1, 0.79% eliminated in QR2
Chinese Taipei: 95.43% eliminated in QR1, 4.49% eliminated in QR2, 0.08% in Pot 4
Bangladesh: 49.03% eliminated in QR1, 45.19% eliminated in QR2, 5.71% in Pot 4, 0.07% in Pot 3
Afghanistan: 97.70% eliminated in QR1, 2.25% eliminated in QR2, 0.05% in Pot 4
Pakistan: 50.97% eliminated in QR1, 44.30% eliminated in QR2, 4.70% in Pot 4, 0.03 in Pot 3
Sri Lanka: 70.24% eliminated in QR1, 29.66% eliminated in QR2, 0.10% in Pot 4
Mongolia: 90.38% eliminated in QR1, 9.61% eliminated in QR2, 0.01% in Pot 4

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (17 June 2011)

Pot 1

100.00% - Japan
100.00% - Australia
100.00% - Korea Republic
99.97% - China PR
99.48% - Iran
0.54% - Jordan
0.01% - Uzbekistan


Pot 2

100.00% - Bahrain
98.69% - Jordan
97.41% - Uzbekistan
94.56% - Saudi Arabia
90.70% - Qatar
17.48% - Kuwait
1.07% - Iraq
0.09% - Oman

Pot 3

98.66% - Oman
91.42% - Iraq
86.04% - United Arab Emirates
83.34% - Syria
81.77% - Kuwait
46.44% - Korea DPR
9.09% - Thailand
0.98% - Tajikistan
0.96% - Yemen
0.54% - Malaysia
0.28% - Indonesia
0.15% - Singapore
0.11% - Vietnam
0.10% - Nepal
0.07% - Bangladesh
0.03% - Pakistan
0.02% - Turkmenistan

Pot 4

89.49% - Lebanon
73.27% - Thailand
60.31% - Turkmenistan
59.06% - Singapore
53.56% - Korea DPR
40.17% - Malaysia
39.39% - Indonesia
17.59% - Palestine
15.68% - Tajikistan
13.96% - India
9.19% - Vietnam
6.55% - Yemen
5.71% - Bangladesh
5.44% - Hong Kong
4.70% - Pakistan
2.58% - Kyrgyzstan
1.24% - Myanmar
0.67% - Nepal
0.65% - Philippines
0.52% - Maldives
0.10% - Sri Lanka
0.08% - Chinese Taipei
0.05% - Afghanistan
0.03% - Laos
0.01% - Mongolia

Eliminated in the second round

99.48% - Maldives
98.44% - Nepal
97.42% - Kyrgyzstan
94.56% - Hong Kong
92.49% - Yemen
90.12% - Vietnam
89.14% - Myanmar
86.04% - India
83.34% - Tajikistan
80.11% - Palestine
69.59% - Philippines
66.01% - Laos
60.33% - Indonesia
54.72% - Malaysia
45.19% - Bangladesh
44.30% - Pakistan
40.79% - Singapore
39.67% - Turkmenistan
33.96% - Cambodia
29.66% - Sri Lanka
17.64% - Thailand
16.66% - Syria
13.96% - United Arab Emirates
10.51% - Lebanon
9.61% - Mongolia
9.30% - Qatar
7.51% - Iraq
5.44% - Saudi Arabia
4.49% - Chinese Taipei
2.58% - Uzbekistan
2.25% - Afghanistan
1.25% - Oman
0.79% - Timor-Leste
0.77% - Jordan
0.75% - Kuwait
0.58% - Macau
0.52% - Iran
0.03% - China PR

Eliminated in the first round

99.42% - Macau
99.21% - Timor-Leste
97.70% - Afghanistan
95.43% - Chinese Taipei
90.38% - Mongolia
70.24% - Sri Lanka
66.04% - Cambodia
50.97% - Pakistan
49.03% - Bangladesh
33.96% - Laos
29.76% - Philippines
9.62% - Myanmar
4.57% - Malaysia
2.30% - Palestine
0.79% - Nepal
0.58% - Vietnam

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, June 10, 2011

Goal.com pots are wrong

I've been asked about the Goal.com UEFA pots.

You can read the details regarding the draw in the PDF file from FIFA. It clearly states the July 2011 ranking will be used for seeding.

Goal.com's Livio Caferoglu published the article on June 6th - that's before the June EURO qualifiers were over.

So the pots published by Goal.com are simply based on the May 2011 ranking.

The correct pots are in my previous post. You are of course free to believe Goal.com :)

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: UEFA pots (10 June 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info
________________

Next update: June 24th, 2011.

Only Romania and Estonia can move to a different pot. Albania, although scheduled to play Argentina, are already locked in pot 4 (win or lose).

Romania could still climb to pot 3 with a win against Paraguay tomorrow.

Estonia could still displace Poland in pot 4 with two wins against Chile and Uruguay.

Not very likely to see either happening though.

Wales will be tied for 45th (last place in the 5th pot) with the Faroe Islands. Both teams will have 273 points. Wales' unrounded total is smaller than Faroe Islands' total.

Switzerland will be 1 point behind Slovakia (last team in pot 2), while Bulgaria will be 4 points behind Hungary (last team in pot 3).

Montenegro missed a huge opportunity. They could have been in the first pot with a win against Bulgaria, but managed only a draw.

Rank - Team - Points

1 Spain                    1588
 2 Netherlands              1542
 3 Germany                  1305
 4 England                  1146
 5 Portugal                 1076
 6 Italy                    1059
 7 Croatia                  1033
 8 Norway                    972
 9 Greece                    959
--------------------------------
10 France                    920
11 Montenegro                915
12 Russia                    914
13 Sweden                    884
14 Denmark                   857
15 Slovenia                  833
16 Turkey                    820
17 Serbia                    797
18 Slovakia                  779
--------------------------------
19 Switzerland               778
20 Israel                    771
21 Republic of Ireland       752
22 Belgium                   691
23 Czech Republic            670
24 Bosnia-Herzegovina        642
25 Belarus                   636
26 Ukraine                   620
27 Hungary                   603
--------------------------------
28 Bulgaria                  599
29 Romania                   594
30 Albania                   558
31 Georgia                   530
32 Lithuania                 526
33 Scotland                  513
34 Northern Ireland          498
35 Austria                   479
36 Poland                    474
--------------------------------
37 Armenia                   462
38 Estonia                   437
39 Finland                   419
40 Cyprus                    398
41 Latvia                    388
42 Moldova                   383
43 FYR Macedonia             338
44 Azerbaijan                282
45 Faroe Islands             273
--------------------------------
45 Wales                     273
47 Liechtenstein             253
48 Iceland                   244
49 Kazakhstan                231
50 Luxembourg                213
51 Malta                      83
52 Andorra                     0
52 San Marino                  0

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece
Pot 2: France, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia
Pot 3: Switzerland, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary
Pot 4: Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Georgia, Lithuania, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland
Pot 5: Armenia, Estonia, Finland, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands
Pot 6: Wales, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: CAF pots (10 June 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info
________________

1 July 2011: See the Namibia update.

________________

Only two matches left involving African teams: Colombia - Senegal and Iran - Madagascar. However, both teams are locked in their respective pots. African teams have to habit of playing often outside the official match dates, so if that happens, I will update the pots.

This is the final July 2011 ranking (based on the current list of fixtures) - only for CAF teams participating in the World Cup qualifiers (that's why you won't see Mauritania).

Rank - Team - Points
1 Côte d'Ivoire            922
 2 Egypt                    738
 3 Ghana                    696
 4 Burkina Faso             661
 5 Nigeria                  635
 6 Senegal                  619
 7 South Africa             597
 8 Cameroon                 595
 9 Algeria                  575
10 Tunisia                  553
-------------------------------
11 Gabon                    517
12 Libya                    494
12 Morocco                  494
14 Guinea                   474
15 Malawi                   459
16 Botswana                 440
17 Zambia                   436
18 Uganda                   417
19 Mali                     416
20 Cape Verde Islands       397
-------------------------------
21 Benin                    380
21 Zimbabwe                 380
23 Central African Republic 370
24 Sierra Leone             348
25 Sudan                    337
26 Niger                    331
27 Gambia                   329
27 Angola                   329
-------------------------------
29 Mozambique               327
30 Congo DR                 240
31 Togo                     238
32 Liberia                  233
33 Tanzania                 231
34 Kenya                    209
35 Congo                    206
36 Rwanda                   190
37 Ethiopia                 169
38 Burundi                  164
39 Madagascar               159
40 Guinea-Bissau            142
-------------------------------
41 Equatorial Guinea        131
42 Chad                     127
43 Namibia                  123
44 Swaziland                 93
45 Comoros                   80
46 Lesotho                   44
47 Eritrea                   29
48 Somalia                   23
49 Djibouti                  12
50 Mauritius                 10
51 Seychelles                 7
52 Sao Tome e Principe        0

So the pots look like this:

Preliminary round:

Pot 1: Mozambique, Congo DR, Togo, Liberia, Tanzania, Kenya, Congo, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Burundi, Madagascar, Guinea-Bissau
Pot 2: Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Namibia, Swaziland, Comoros, Lesotho, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sao Tome e Principe

Group stage draw:

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Cameroon, Algeria, Tunisia
Pot 2: Gabon, Libya, Morocco, Guinea, Malawi, Botswana, Zambia, Uganda, Mali, Cape Verde Islands
Pot 3: Benin, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Niger, Gambia, Angola

The winners of the first two match-ups from the preliminary round (in the order of the draw) will be placed in Pot 3. The other winners will be placed in Pot 4.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: June 2011 preview (III)

Next update: June 24th, 2011.


27 teams can still improve their total points:

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points


Argentina 947 979
Uruguay 877 909
Mexico 734 1019
Chile 720 821
Paraguay 699 768
USA 676 999
Romania 571 615
Senegal 561 614
Honduras 552 814
Costa Rica 550 798
Jamaica 547 852
Colombia 528 613
Albania 524 582
Panama 487 744
Venezuela 458 496
Estonia 399 481
El Salvador 362 613
Canada 342 763
Cuba 330 579
Grenada 265 565
Guatemala 212 565
Malaysia 134 146
Myanmar 72 93
Belize 52 146
US Virgin Islands 3 30
Montserrat 0 132
Anguilla 0 26


In the table below, the value displayed for each of these 27 teams is the lowest possible, so teams' totals can only go up.

June 2011 rank - Team - June 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1871 0 14
2 Netherlands 1661 0 -41
3 Germany 1417 1 4
4 England 1146 2 -17
5 Brazil 1130 -2 -295
6 Italy 1059 3 40
7 Portugal 1046 1 -6
8 Croatia 1033 2 42
9 Norway 972 2 -15
10 Greece 959 2 -26
11 Argentina 947 -6 -320
12 Japan 925 2 -36
13 Côte d'Ivoire 922 8 55
14 France 920 5 37
15 Montenegro 915 9 95
16 Russia 914 2 18
17 Sweden 884 11 82
18 Uruguay 877 -11 -217
19 Denmark 857 8 49
20 Slovenia 833 -3 -70
21 Australia 829 -1 -47
22 Turkey 820 8 25
23 Serbia 797 -7 -110
24 Korea Republic 787 7 33
25 Slovakia 779 1 -30
26 Switzerland 778 -1 -41
27 Israel 771 6 62
28 Republic of Ireland 752 6 71
29 Ghana 735 -14 -183
30 Mexico 734 -2 -68
31 Egypt 727 5 51
32 Chile 720 -19 -247
33 Paraguay 699 -10 -148
34 Belgium 691 3 37
35 USA 676 -13 -179
36 Czech Republic 670 -4 -52
37 Burkina Faso 661 7 61
38 Bosnia-Herzegovina 642 7 48
39 Belarus 636 14 79
40 Nigeria 635 -1 -2
41 Ukraine 620 -6 -58
42 Hungary 603 10 44
43 Bulgaria 599 3 7
44 South Africa 597 -6 -56
45 Cameroon 595 4 23
46 Peru 583 8 35
47 Iran 578 1 3
48 Algeria 575 -7 -34
49 Romania 571 -7 -36
50 Senegal 561 -10 -52
51 Honduras 552 -8 -51
52 Costa Rica 550 4 9
53 Jamaica 547 2 1
54 Georgia 530 3 -6
55 Colombia 528 -5 -36
56 Tunisia 527 5 0
57 Lithuania 526 -10 -51
58 Albania 524 -8 -40
59 Gabon 517 0 -12
60 Scotland 513 6 -4
61 Northern Ireland 498 4 -22
62 Libya 494 -4 -40
62 Morocco 494 11 49
64 Panama 487 3 -6
65 Austria 479 9 36
66 Guinea 475 -4 -49
67 Poland 474 4 25
68 Ecuador 473 -4 -50
69 Armenia 462 -7 -62
70 Venezuela 458 -2 -31
71 Malawi 454 1 8
72 Zambia 433 17 50
73 Botswana 431 -4 -48
74 China PR 426 3 -12
75 Finland 419 6 3
76 Uganda 417 8 15
77 Mali 416 -7 -35
78 Estonia 399 -3 -41
79 Cyprus 398 10 15
80 Cape Verde Islands 397 -1 -24
81 Latvia 388 -4 -50
82 Jordan 385 11 7
83 Moldova 383 3 -11
84 Uzbekistan 381 -1 -22
85 Benin 380 -5 -38
85 Zimbabwe 380 41 161
87 Haiti 377 9 29
88 Trinidad and Tobago 374 7 21
89 Central African Republic 370 24 107
90 Saudi Arabia 366 -2 -20
91 El Salvador 362 -4 -29
92 Bolivia 356 10 44
93 Qatar 355 -1 -25
94 Sierra Leone 348 24 102
95 Iraq 346 -6 -37
96 New Zealand 345 -36 -183
97 Canada 342 -21 -97
98 FYR Macedonia 338 -13 -60
99 Sudan 337 5 42
100 Niger 331 -1 -4
101 Cuba 330 -20 -86
102 Angola 329 2 34
102 Bahrain 329 -5 -9
102 Gambia 329 1 21
102 Kuwait 329 -1 9
106 Mozambique 327 -12 -31
107 Oman 298 0 4
108 Suriname 296 4 29
109 Syria 290 -5 -5
110 United Arab Emirates 288 1 15
111 Antigua and Barbuda 286 -11 -36
112 Azerbaijan 282 -4 -6
113 Togo 279 -4 -6
114 Faroe Islands 273 22 105
114 Wales 273 0 15
116 Guyana 267 -6 -17
117 Grenada 265 -19 -72
118 Korea DPR 255 -3 0
119 Liechtenstein 253 34 137
120 St. Kitts and Nevis 248 -1 3
121 Iceland 244 -5 -10
122 Thailand 239 -2 -3
123 Congo DR 238 3 19
124 Liberia 232 33 139
125 Kazakhstan 231 14 80
125 Tanzania 231 -8 -21
127 Luxembourg 213 -2 -8
128 Guatemala 212 -4 -10
129 Kenya 209 -6 -18
130 Congo 206 -9 -26
131 Yemen 199 -2 -4
132 Indonesia 195 -2 -5
133 Dominica 193 -2 0
134 Rwanda 189 -12 -39
135 Tajikistan 180 0 9
136 Ethiopia 169 -8 -49
137 Puerto Rico 167 -5 -13
138 Madagascar 166 0 2
139 Burundi 164 10 37
140 Vietnam 159 -6 -13
141 Barbados 156 -9 -24
142 Turkmenistan 147 -1 -2
143 Guinea-Bissau 142 -7 -26
143 Singapore 142 1 2
145 Hong Kong 141 1 3
146 India 137 -1 -2
147 Nepal 136 0 1
148 Malaysia 134 -5 -10
149 Equatorial Guinea 131 -7 -15
150 Curacao 128 2 7
151 Maldives 126 -3 -7
152 Chad 123 -3 -4
153 Namibia 117 -13 -33
154 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 112 -1 -4
155 Fiji 103 0 0
156 Swaziland 101 3 12
157 New Caledonia 97 -6 -26
158 Philippines 96 -2 0
159 Cayman Islands 90 -1 0
160 Malta 83 1 -1
160 Nicaragua 83 6 8
162 Bangladesh 81 1 2
163 Comoros 80 25 61
164 Chinese Taipei 77 -4 -9
165 Afghanistan 75 -1 -2
166 Myanmar 72 1 -2
166 Palestine 72 5 5
168 Kyrgyzstan 70 1 0
168 Pakistan 70 0 -2
170 Sri Lanka 69 -1 -1
171 Dominican Republic 66 1 0
172 Vanuatu 64 -7 -12
173 Cambodia 57 3 1
173 Laos 57 1 0
173 Tahiti 57 1 0
176 Lebanon 55 2 4
177 Belize 52 -5 -14
178 Lesotho 46 -2 -10
179 Mongolia 41 0 -7
180 Bermuda 40 -18 -40
180 Solomon Islands 40 2 0
182 British Virgin Islands 38 1 0
183 Macau 32 1 0
183 Mauritania 32 -3 -13
185 St. Lucia 31 0 0
186 Eritrea 29 -5 -13
187 Samoa 26 -1 0
188 Somalia 23 -1 0
189 Mauritius 17 0 -1
190 Seychelles 15 4 4
190 Tonga 15 0 -2
192 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 1 0
193 Djibouti 12 -1 -3
194 Cook Islands 10 -4 -7
194 Guam 10 1 0
196 Bahamas 9 0 0
196 Brunei Darussalam 9 0 0
198 Aruba 7 1 0
199 Bhutan 6 -3 -3
200 Timor-Leste 3 0 0
200 US Virgin Islands 3 0 0
202 American Samoa 0 0 0
202 Andorra 0 0 0
202 Anguilla 0 0 0
202 Montserrat 0 0 0
202 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
202 San Marino 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.