Next update: 8 July 2011.
I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.
Assumption: Indonesia will somehow avoid being suspended by FIFA.
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (17 June 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (17 June 2011)
Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.
Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan