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Friday, June 17, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (17 June 2011)

Next update: 8 July 2011.

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumption: Indonesia will somehow avoid being suspended by FIFA.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (17 June 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (17 June 2011)

Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan

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Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.


  1. Is Turkmenistan stronger then Indonesia of because the suspension, btw indonesia has a new congress, i hope indonesia not get suspend.
    (my english is not so good)

  2. Philippines will upset Kuwait!

  3. Philippines will upset Kuwait! indeed...indeed....we could only wish.

    But if i had to make a bet, i would agree with the simulation.

  4. Funny / strange: Thursday morning at 04.00am (cet) Mexico plays 2 (!!!) matches that both count for the world rankings:
    * a friendly against colombia
    * the semi final of the gold cup against honduras

    Am i crazy? Or is fifa?

  5. @ Anonymous

    I think that was a mistake. It's off the FIFA site now.

  6. Mexico plays Copa América warm-up matches with their Olympic team. FIFA hasn't decided yet if they will be added to the rankings..

  7. @Anonymous (Indonesia)

    Turkmenistan have a higher Elo rating - the one I used for the simulations.