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Friday, June 3, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (3 June 2011)

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): Simulation results by pot (3 June 2011)

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): Simulation results by team (3 June 2011)

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

13 teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).

Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Algeria and Nigeria in Pot 1.
Lesotho, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritius, Seychelles and Sao Tome e Principe in Pot 5.

Senegal no longer safe in Pot 1, after scheduling a friendly against Colombia. Nigeria safe in Pot 1 after winning against Argentina on June 1st.

Guinea appear 100% in Pot 2, but they could also drop to Pot 5 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.
Rwanda appear 100% in Pot 4, but they could also drop to Pot 5 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.

Senegal's pot 1 chances drop by almost 40.99% - not at 59.01%. Tunisia (up by 17.17 to 87.61), Libya (up by 15.38 to 16.77) and Gabon (up by 9.04 to 41.78) improve their chances.

Central African Republic lost to Tunisia in a friendly at the end of May and they can no longer reach pot 2.

Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tunisia
Pot 2: Botswana, Cape Verde Islands, Gabon, Guinea, Libya, Malawi, Mali, Morocco, Uganda, Zambia
Pot 3: Angola, Benin, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Zimbabwe
Pot 4 (Pot 1 in the preliminary draw): Congo, Congo DR, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Madagascar, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Togo
Pot 5 (Pot 2 in the preliminary draw): Burundi, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Lesotho, Liberia, Mauritius, Sao Tome e Principe, Seychelles, Somalia, Swaziland

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