Next update: 10 June 2011.
I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (3 June 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (3 June 2011)
Bosnia-Herzegovina's suspension has been lifted and FIFA confirmed they will be using the July 2011 FIFA ranking to seed the teams.
12 teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).
Spain, Netherlands, Germany and England in Pot 1.
Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia in Pot 2.
Andorra, Kazakhstan, Malta, Liechtenstein and San Marino in Pot 6.
Cyprus appear 100% in Pot 5, but they could also drop to Pot 6 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.
Wales won against Northern Ireland and have turned the tables on Iceland, replacing them in Pot 5. They are now favorites to avoid Pot 6, needing Denmark to win against Iceland tomorrow in Reykjavik.
Wales's win has also condemned Malta, Liechtenstein to San Marino to Pot 6.
Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots (no change from last time). In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.
Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Latvia, Moldova, Poland, Wales
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino