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Friday, June 3, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (3 June 2011)

Next update: 10 June 2011.

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (3 June 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (3 June 2011)

Bosnia-Herzegovina's suspension has been lifted and FIFA confirmed they will be using the July 2011 FIFA ranking to seed the teams.

12 teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on

Spain, Netherlands, Germany and England in Pot 1.
Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia in Pot 2.
Andorra, Kazakhstan, Malta, Liechtenstein and San Marino in Pot 6.

Cyprus appear 100% in Pot 5, but they could also drop to Pot 6 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.

Wales won against Northern Ireland and have turned the tables on Iceland, replacing them in Pot 5. They are now favorites to avoid Pot 6, needing Denmark to win against Iceland tomorrow in Reykjavik.

Wales's win has also condemned Malta, Liechtenstein to San Marino to Pot 6.

Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots (no change from last time). In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Latvia, Moldova, Poland, Wales
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.


  1. Hi,
    I would appriciate if you show FIFA Rankings without friendlies next week.


  2. Hmmmmm, Netherlands, Slovenia, Belgium, Armenia, Azerbaijan and San Marino would make a nice group and give us a chance to win a record 28 qualifiers in a row! ;-) Of course, we have to beat Finland and Sweden away first, assuming we'll beat San Marino and Moldova at home. Mind you, if Spain beat the Czech Republic away and beat Liechtenstein and Scotland at home and then also win all their 2014 qualifiers they'd be on 32 in a row. But if they get France, Czech Republic, Romania, Macedonia and Iceland that might be a different story. I'm glad football isn't predictable!

  3. Have I calculated this correct?
    Since Portugal vs Norway ended 1-0,
    Norway then have to beat Lithuania to get a spot in Pot 1, and if they draw or loose, Norway will end up in Pot 2?

  4. Jon-Roar Selenius - Yes, I believe you are correct. This is how I read things after looking at Edgar's scenarios. A win over Lithuania in the friendly this week and Norway is in Pot 1. A loss and Russia is in Pot 1.

  5. Hi there,
    I wonder if anyone can help me.
    With Greece beating Malta as expected and Norway losing, and Montenegro drawing does this mean Greece will be in Pot 1 regardless of the result in their Ecuador friendly???

  6. any updates after the weekend games? whats the situation now?

  7. Salut Edgar, ce zic ăștia aici e corect?

    Care e algoritmul cu care se calculează punctele pentru un meci? Pe net găsesc chestii contradictorii.

  8. Eww...Romania will be in pot 4...not good.

  9. Do penalty shootouts in friendly games count for the ranking? (Uruguay -Netherlands)

  10. @Amir

    Later today.

    @Jon-Roar Selenius

    Russia needed to win and Norway to lose in order to displace them from Pot 1. Neither happened.

    @Anonymous (Greece)

    Greece were safe in Pot 1 regardless of the results against Ecuador.


    Sorry, but I do have a life, a family and a job. I update the blog only on Fridays.


    Da, e adevarat. Eu le-am scris lor si celor de la GSP, Prosport, Mediafax si FRF.

    @Anonymous (10 June)

    Yes, they do count.

  11. look on 10th june you can now