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Monday, August 31, 2009

Confusion in Indian football

This is a pretty old article, but I think it's interesting, as it shows how totally clueless Indian football is.

India better than what FIFA ranking shows: Coach Houghton

Mr. Houghton says:

"FIFA rankings are based on the performances of a team over a year. We don't play enough games in a year."

Obviously, that's wrong, as the FIFA ranking takes into account matches played in the last 4 years.

And here's the real gem:

If India could do well in the 2011 Asia Cup -- India qualified by winning the AFC Challenge Cup last year -- and enter the World Cup qualifiers as a seeded team, it would immensely benefit the team, he added.

"The next year-and-a-half is going to be very important for India. If we can perform well in the Asia Cup and become a seeded team for the World Cup qualifiers, then it would mean a first round bye and facing weaker teams, while now since we are unseeded we end up playing more matches and get drawn with tougher opponents," he said.

This next year-and-a-half will be in vain, as AFC have already announced the seeding for the the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers. India's 2011 Asian Cup performance won't affect the World Cup seeding, only the 2015 Asian Cup seeding.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, August 28, 2009

FIFA Ranking: September 2009 final preview

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

The official deadline for matches was yesterday. FIFA could include more matches, but no later than Sunday.

Germany and Italy tied in 4th place.
Croatia and France swap places in the top 10.

Best movers:

14 - Kyrgyzstan
11 - Congo
10 - Angola

Worst movers:

-22 - Congo DR
-17 - Tajikistan
-11 - Bermuda, Cayman Islands and Samoa

Best movers in the top 50:

7 - Norway
6 - Mexico
5 - Chile

Worst movers in the top 50:

-7 - Uruguay
-6 - Ukraine and Scotland
-4 - Gabon and Hungary

Bahrain replace Saudi Arabia as 5th in AFC. These two teams will meet in September in the Asian 3rd place play-off.

Ghana overtake Nigeria and are tied with Egypt for 3rd in CAF. Gabon drop out of the top 5. It's very close though - 5 African teams between 29th and 35th.

Trinidad and Tobago in the CONCACAF top 5, overtaking Canada and Jamaica.

Chile up to 3rd in CONMEBOL, going past Paraguay and Uruguay.

Four teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Serbia (13th - 14th in July 2009)
Australia (14th - 16th in July 2009)
Benin (78th - 79th in August 2007)
Montenegro (90th - 96th in August 2009)

Four teams will have their worst ever ranking:

Morocco (57th - 55th in June 2009)
Peru (91st - 89th in June 2009)
Congo DR (118th - 102nd in July 2009)
Tonga (193rd - 192nd in July 2007)

September 2009 rank - Team - September 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Brazil 1604 0 -38
2 Spain 1588 0 -2
3 Netherlands 1376 0 -3
4 Germany 1186 0 -9
4 Italy 1186 1 5
6 Russia 1129 0 -32
7 England 1127 0 -8
8 Argentina 1113 0 33
9 Croatia 1101 1 70
10 France 1040 -1 -19
11 USA 974 1 -17
12 Greece 971 -1 -30
13 Serbia 916 1 -9
14 Australia 907 2 11
15 Switzerland 899 -2 -31
16 Denmark 892 -1 -17
17 Portugal 880 0 -1
18 Czech Republic 870 4 20
19 Bulgaria 859 4 20
20 Côte d'Ivoire 852 -2 -22
21 Chile 846 5 29
21 Israel 846 4 24
23 Paraguay 842 -3 -14
24 Mexico 835 6 36
25 Ukraine 829 -6 -40
26 Romania 827 1 13
27 Turkey 826 1 17
28 Uruguay 820 -7 -31
29 Cameroon 819 0 16
30 Scotland 804 -6 -33
31 Northern Ireland 795 1 11
32 Egypt 786 1 7
32 Ghana 786 3 14
34 Nigeria 773 0 0
35 Gabon 759 -4 -30
36 Ecuador 749 0 -19
36 Poland 749 4 43
38 Republic of Ireland 743 -1 -15
39 Costa Rica 735 -1 -7
40 Japan 734 -1 5
41 Sweden 723 0 21
42 Honduras 712 4 48
43 Norway 709 7 103
44 Algeria 707 3 46
45 Slovakia 686 -3 -1
46 Bosnia-Herzegovina 682 -2 2
47 Hungary 669 -4 -12
48 Colombia 657 -3 -11
49 Korea Republic 641 -1 15
50 Venezuela 604 4 21
51 Burkina Faso 602 0 4
52 Tunisia 601 -3 -13
53 Mali 593 5 42
54 Slovenia 576 6 37
55 Guinea 574 2 12
56 FYR Macedonia 569 -3 -20
57 Morocco 561 -2 -9
58 Latvia 555 -2 -8
59 Bolivia 547 4 25
60 Iran 541 1 7
61 Finland 537 -9 -56
62 Lithuania 533 -3 -12
63 Trinidad and Tobago 517 7 39
64 Bahrain 506 1 4
65 Saudi Arabia 505 -1 -15
66 Canada 504 0 6
67 Wales 481 0 -13
68 Belgium 480 -6 -53
69 Jamaica 477 0 -12
70 Austria 473 -2 -20
71 Togo 454 0 -14
72 Uganda 448 3 7
73 South Africa 445 -1 -4
74 Oman 432 6 21
75 Panama 431 3 14
76 Cyprus 429 -3 -16
77 Belarus 420 -3 -24
78 Benin 412 5 12
78 Congo 412 11 34
80 Senegal 410 4 11
81 Zambia 409 -4 -16
82 Libya 407 -7 -34
83 Qatar 400 2 3
84 Mozambique 399 -2 -3
85 El Salvador 398 -4 -10
85 Uzbekistan 398 -6 -14
87 Cuba 393 1 10
88 Moldova 391 -1 2
89 Montenegro 380 7 41
90 Korea DPR 379 -4 -17
91 Peru 363 -2 -15
92 Angola 362 10 30
93 Albania 360 1 13
94 Tanzania 359 -1 9
95 Syria 353 0 10
96 Iceland 345 -4 -13
97 Sudan 343 -6 -24
98 Iraq 340 2 6
99 Gambia 337 -1 0
100 New Zealand 336 -1 0
101 Namibia 331 2 5
102 Fiji 330 -1 -3
103 Barbados 326 3 6
104 Kenya 317 1 -8
105 Malawi 312 3 0
106 Antigua and Barbuda 311 2 -1
107 China PR 307 1 -5
108 Grenada 305 5 0
109 Haiti 304 6 9
110 Kuwait 298 6 6
111 Guatemala 297 -4 -19
112 Cape Verde Islands 296 2 0
112 Georgia 296 -9 -30
114 Estonia 289 -2 -19
115 Thailand 286 2 -1
116 Luxembourg 282 3 -2
117 Rwanda 278 0 -9
118 Congo DR 275 -22 -64
119 Suriname 272 -8 -37
120 Zimbabwe 261 0 -20
121 Sierra Leone 241 4 0
122 Guyana 240 -1 -29
123 United Arab Emirates 238 1 -4
124 Chad 233 2 0
125 Armenia 231 -2 -12
125 Burundi 231 3 11
127 Singapore 223 0 -5
128 Hong Kong 221 6 35
129 Equatorial Guinea 219 0 0
129 Jordan 219 -7 -26
131 Madagascar 208 1 6
132 Indonesia 202 2 16
133 Botswana 201 -2 -6
134 New Caledonia 199 4 31
135 Niger 190 -2 3
136 Ethiopia 181 0 3
136 Kazakhstan 181 -6 -27
138 Vanuatu 177 4 25
139 Azerbaijan 174 -2 -1
140 Malta 166 6 26
141 Nicaragua 165 -2 0
142 Yemen 163 -1 4
143 Liberia 161 -3 0
144 Myanmar 150 3 11
145 Vietnam 149 -1 0
146 Kyrgyzstan 146 14 44
147 Turkmenistan 145 -2 3
148 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 138 2 5
149 India 134 7 22
150 Lebanon 132 -2 -6
151 Liechtenstein 124 -1 -9
152 Malaysia 123 0 3
152 St. Kitts and Nevis 123 -3 -12
154 Bermuda 119 -11 -31
155 Maldives 117 -1 0
156 Swaziland 115 -3 -4
157 Eritrea 114 2 8
158 Sri Lanka 111 -2 -1
159 Philippines 108 -1 0
160 Lesotho 101 4 6
161 Mauritania 99 0 0
162 Solomon Islands 97 -1 -2
163 Faroe Islands 96 0 0
164 Netherlands Antilles 88 1 0
165 Puerto Rico 87 1 0
166 Chinese Taipei 86 6 16
167 Bangladesh 85 2 5
167 Pakistan 85 0 0
169 Somalia 82 -1 0
170 Laos 69 1 -4
171 Cambodia 67 2 3
172 Tajikistan 65 -17 -51
173 Palestine 62 4 5
174 Mongolia 61 1 0
175 Nepal 60 1 0
176 Belize 57 1 0
177 Bahamas 53 2 0
177 Seychelles 53 2 0
179 Turks and Caicos Islands 51 2 0
180 Brunei Darussalam 46 2 0
181 Cayman Islands 44 -11 -32
182 Mauritius 43 1 -2
183 Dominican Republic 40 1 0
184 Guinea-Bissau 38 2 0
184 Samoa 38 -11 -26
186 Cook Islands 34 1 0
186 Guam 34 1 0
188 Djibouti 33 1 0
189 St. Lucia 32 1 0
189 Tahiti 32 1 0
191 Afghanistan 30 1 0
191 British Virgin Islands 30 1 0
193 Macau 28 1 0
193 Tonga 28 -9 -12
195 Andorra 18 0 1
196 Bhutan 17 -1 0
197 Dominica 12 0 0
198 Aruba 11 0 0
199 Timor-Leste 9 0 0
200 Comoros 8 0 0
200 US Virgin Islands 8 0 0
202 Central African Republic 4 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Anguilla 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

100 days to the 2010 FIFA World Cup final draw

The final draw will take place on December 4th 2009, at the Cape Town International Convention Centre.

So far, besides South Africa (the hosts), only five teams are sure to be in the draw: Australia, Japan, Korea Republic, Netherlands and Korea DPR.

For seeding info, check the 2010 FIFA World Cup seeding links at the top of the page.

FIFA will probably release the official seeding table a couple of days before the draw.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Monday, August 24, 2009

2010 WCQ: Explanation of second place standings

It would have been a very long comment. I think a separate post would be better.

First of all, this was a "by request" post for Jonny. These are probable results based on the Elo ratings, not my predictions. I'm not good at predictions by the way :) The Elo ratings don't reflect a team's form very well. Perhaps Voros' ranking would do the trick, but since the system behind his ranking is not public, I can't use it to predict results. For each match, I use the result that will have the teams exchange the least amount of points.

Anonymous said...

I don't think Norway is going to be among the 8 best second placed teams. I'm Norwegian, and I'm saying this based on how our team plays in the last 5 years. Maybe we are going to win away against Iceland and HOME against Macedonia, but that won't be enough. You also have some "weird" results, by underestimating Serbia (don't mind anyway, they are in front us), Portugal and especially Turkey. And I don't think Croatai and Israel are going to be the second placed team in their group. But I do respect your opinion :)

I fixed the location of Norway - Macedonia. Jonny also told me about it, but I try to use my week-ends for more important things, like my family.
This has never been an "opinion" blog. It's only a ranking blog. That's why it's not very popular. :)

Anonymous Petar said...

Hi!
I know you're Romanian (where from Romania actually?) and you maybe don't like Serbia or Serbs, but do you really think Serbia is going to get a draw against France (fair enough), Romania (you are good, but not that good!:)) and Lithuania (no comment!)? I believe France will get the 2nd place in Group 7. I also count on help from Romania on 5th September in Paris :)


From Iasi. I have nothing against Serbs or Serbia. Scroll to the end to see why Elo gives these results. Elo has Romania losing 1 - 0 in Paris.

Blogger paqs said...

Group 5 current situation:

Bosnia 12 points
Turkey 8 points

You say Turkey will gain an additional 8 points, leaving them with 16. You say Bosnia will draw with Turkey, and it's fair to assume they'll lose to Spain.

So that leaves Bosnia to get 4 points from two games at Estonia and Armenia to surpass Turkey and their 16 points. I think they'll easily make it, considering they beat the two minnows by 7-0 (Estonia) and 4-1 (Armenia) last fall.

Scroll to the end to see why Elo gives these results.

Blogger scaryice said...

I'm not sure 12 points would be enough, unless no one breaks out of the pack in group 3. Teams are probably going to need 13 points after the 6th place results are removed. I don't know even know if Scotland could avoid missing the playoffs with 13 points, because their goal differential is awful.

At this point all teams in group 8 need to hope for the right results in the other groups. I think you're being conservative with your likely results. Ireland should beat Cyprus and Portugal should beat Hungary, and I don't see Israel and Turkey finishing second in their groups.

I'm not being conservative. It's what Elo comes up with.

Here are a couple of results mentioned in the above comments or results I think are strange.

Of course, the values are adjusted after each match, but the current values will do for now:

Armenia - Bosnia-Herzegovina X

Armenia - 1345
Bosnia - 1604

Points exchanged:

1 - 29
X - 9
2 - 11

Cyprus - Republic of Ireland X

Cyprus - 1479
Republic of Ireland - 1737

Points exchanged:

1 - 29
X - 9
2 - 11

Armenia - Belgium X

Armenia - 1345
Belgium - 1554

Points exchanged:

1 - 26
X - 6
2 - 14

Hungary - Portugal X

Hungary - 1598
Portugal - 1795

Points exchanged:

1 - 25
X - 5
2 - 15

Latvia - Switzerland X

1 - 29
X - 9
2 - 11

Serbia - Romania X

Serbia - 1799
Romania - 1763

Points exchanged:

1 - 13
X - 7
2 - 27

Estonia - Bosnia-Herzegovina X

Estonia - 1396
Bosnia-Herzegovina - 1578

Points exchanged:

1 - 26
X - 6
2 - 14

Lithuania - Serbia X

Lithuania - 1578
Serbia - 1799

Points exchanged:

1 - 27
X - 7
2 - 13

Estonia - Belgium X

Estonia - 1396
Belgium - 1554

Points exchanged:

1 - 23
X - 3
2 - 17

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, August 21, 2009

2010 WCQ: Second place standings (21 August 2009)

A discussion with jonny63 made me curious about Norway's chances of reaching the play-offs. I generated the probable results for the remaining qualifiers and here's the ranking of second placed teams (with the games against the 6th team in the group removed):

Rank - Team - Group - Goals for - Goals against - Points - Goal difference
1 Russia              4 13 3 19 10
2 Serbia 7 11 5 15 6
3 Croatia 6 12 8 14 4
4 Israel 2 9 7 13 2
5 Norway 9 8 5 12 3
6 Republic of Ireland 8 5 3 12 2
7 Poland 3 8 7 12 1
8 Portugal 1 5 4 11 1
----------------------------------
9 Turkey 5 5 5 10 0
Probable results for these 9 teams:

H (home), A (away), W (win), D (draw), L (loss).

Russia

Liechtenstein (H-W)
Wales (A-W)
Germany (H-D)
Azerbaijan (A-W)

Serbia

France (H-D)
Romania (H-D)
Lithuania (A-D)

Croatia

Belarus (H-W)
England (A-L)
Kazakhstan (A-W)

Israel

Latvia (H-W)
Luxembourg (H-W)
Moldova (H-W)
Switzerland (A-D)

Norway

Iceland (A-W)
FYR Macedonia (H-W)

Poland

Northern Ireland (H-W)
Slovenia (A-D)
Czech Republic (A-D)
Slovakia (H-W)

Republic of Ireland

Cyprus (A-D)
Italy (H-D)
Montenegro (H-W)

Portugal

Denmark (A-D)
Hungary (A-D)
Hungary (H-W)
Malta (H-W)

Turkey

Estonia (H-W)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (A-D)
Belgium (A-D)
Armenia (H-W)

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, August 14, 2009

Looking back at the 2006 World Cup seeding

Two days ago I read this article by Frank Giase:

World Cup seeding -- and pride -- at stake when the U.S. men's soccer team faces Mexico in qualifier

That was the interesting part:

"U.S. coach Bruce Arena did the smart thing. In the final three meaningless qualifiers -- a scoreless tie in Guatemala, a 3-0 loss in Costa Rica and a 2-0 home win over Panama -- Arena packed the roster with inexperienced players.

But the results, combined with a who-cares 1-1 tie in Scotland that November, dropped the United States below Mexico in the FIFA rankings. And when the World Cup draw rolled around a month later, it was Mexico that received a top seed."

Mr. Giase seems to think Mexico were seeded at the expense of USA.

That is not true. Mexico were 5th in the seeding table, the USA were 9th, behind France, Italy and Argentina.

The matches against Guatemala, Costa Rica and Scotland only influenced the November 2005 FIFA ranking. Obviously, the 1998 and 2002 World Cups and the December 2003 and December 2004 FIFA rankings were already set in stone.

Here's the November 2005 top 10:
 1 Brazil         841
2 Czech Republic 796
3 Netherlands 791
4 Argentina 774
5 France 772
6 Spain 771
7 Mexico 768
8 USA 766
9 England 757
10 Portugal 754
Full ranking on fifa.com.

In order to be seeded, USA had to be at least 4th. And even then, they would have replaced Argentina, not Mexico.

Even winning against Guatemala and Costa Rica, I don't think the US could have climbed so high. Here's why:

In 2005, results from the last 8 years were taken into account, so it was not very easy to move quickly through the higher part of the table.

On top of that, the calculation method used back then placed greater weight on the best seven results in each of the 8 years. The match vs. Scotland was a friendly,

From Wikipedia:

In order to prevent teams with more fixtures than this being given an advantage, the calculation initially considered only the best seven results of a team. To include further results an average of them must be calculated.

For example, if a team played twelve matches:

* The best seven of the 12 results were identified
* The total score for these seven matches was calculated (X)
* The total score for all 12 matches was calculated
* This total was divided by 12 and multiplied by seven (Y)
* The total for the seven best results was added to the seven "average" results (X+Y)
* This total (X+Y) was divided by two for the final score

The Gold Cup final tournament was played in July 2005. The USA registered wins against Cuba, Canada, Jamaica and Honduras, tied against Costa Rica and won after PSO against Panama.

Between November 2004 and September 3rd, 2005 (the match against Guatemala), the USA had played 7 World cup qualifiers, getting six wins (Trinidad and Tobago twice, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama and Mexico) and a loss against Mexico.

Three friendlies with two wins (Colombia and Honduras) and loss to England.

Between November 2004 and November 2005 the USA have played 20 matches. With FIFA placing more weight on the best 7 results, getting the win in those three matches would have made little difference.

Let's assume the USA would have been 4th in November 2005.

In 2002, FIFA used the last three World Cups to compute the performance part. In 2006, they dropped the oldest one and it made no difference (see 2006 World Cup seeding post). With the USA 4th in the November ranking and with only two World Cup taken into account, the seeded teams would have been: Brazil, England, Spain, Germany, Mexico, France, Italy and USA. If we keep the 2002 seeding formula (using the last three World Cups), Argentina would return among the seeds.

Since FIFA announce the seeding formula after all the qualifiers are known, I don't think they would have dropped the oldest World Cup tournament from the equation.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CONCACAF teams (12 August 2009)

The preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup took place on November 25th, 2007 and used the May 2007 FIFA ranking (for CONCACAF).

Assumptions:

- CONCACAF will again have 3.5 spots
- CONCACAF will again use the same qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams

The May 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between May 2007 and May 2011. We already have the "0.2" and "0.3" parts (matches played between May 2007 and May 2009) - that's basically 25% of the final ranking and a bit of the "0.5" part (matches played between May 2009 and May 2010). A lot can and will change before May 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving CONCACAF teams: 2009 Gold Cup knockout stages, 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2010 FIFA World Cup, 2010 Caribbean Championship, 2011 UNCAF Nations Cup and plenty of friendlies.

This is the May 2011 ranking (for CONCACAF only) using matches played up to and including August 12th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to May 2010 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Honduras replace Canada in the first pot.

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
 1  1 USA                            474
2 2 Mexico 427
3 5 Honduras 361
----------------------------------------
4 3 Canada 354
5 4 Costa Rica 345
6 6 El Salvador 215
----------------------------------------
7 7 Panama 208
8 8 Jamaica 200
9 9 Haiti 174
10 10 Trinidad and Tobago 163
11 11 Grenada 115
12 12 Antigua and Barbuda 112
----------------------------------------
13 13 Guatemala 90
----------------------------------------
14 14 Cuba 87
15 15 Bermuda 80
16 16 Barbados 70
17 17 Suriname 63
18 18 Guyana 53
18 18 Nicaragua 53
20 20 Netherlands Antilles 50
21 21 Puerto Rico 48
22 22 St. Kitts and Nevis 38
23 23 Cayman Islands 24
24 24 Belize 22
----------------------------------------
24 24 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 22
26 26 St. Lucia 13
26 26 Turks and Caicos Islands 13
28 28 British Virgin Islands 12
29 29 Bahamas 9
30 30 Aruba 7
31 31 Dominica 5
32 32 US Virgin Islands 3
33 33 Anguilla 0
33 33 Dominican Republic 0
33 33 Montserrat 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CAF (12 August 2009)

The preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup took place on November 25th, 2007 and used the July 2007 FIFA ranking.

Assumptions:

- CAF will again have 5 spots
- CAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CAF will choose the July 2011 ranking for seeding

The July 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2007 and July 2011. We already have the "0.2" part (matches played between July 2007 and July 2008) and the "0.3" part (matches played between July 2008 and July 2009) - that's 25% of the formula. A lot can and will change before July 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving African teams: 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2010 FIFA World Cup, CAN 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.

This is the July 2011 ranking (for CAF only) using matches played up to and including August 12th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to July 2010 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Senegal, Angola And Tanzania replace Gambia, Sudan and Malawi in the second pot.

First round seeding:
43 43 Mauritania                23
45 45 Lesotho 22
46 46 Eritrea 16
47 47 Mauritius 15
48 48 Guinea-Bissau 12
----------------------------------
48 48 Djibouti 12
50 50 Seychelles 11
51 51 Central African Republic 0
51 51 Comoros 0
51 51 Sao Tome e Principe 0
Winners advance to the first group stage.

Seeding for the first group stage:
 1  1 Gabon                    243
2 3 Ghana 235
3 2 Côte d'Ivoire 234
4 6 Algeria 229
5 5 Cameroon 222
6 3 Egypt 215
7 6 Nigeria 180
8 10 Mali 174
9 8 Burkina Faso 164
10 9 Tunisia 154
11 12 Guinea 144
12 11 Morocco 143
----------------------------------
13 13 Togo 127
14 14 Libya 121
15 18 Congo 117
16 15 Uganda 116
16 15 South Africa 116
18 26 Senegal 112
19 23 Benin 107
19 31 Angola 107
21 22 Mozambique 106
21 17 Kenya 106
23 19 Zambia 103
24 27 Tanzania 102
----------------------------------
25 20 Gambia 101
26 21 Sudan 100
27 24 Malawi 87
28 25 Rwanda 86
29 28 Congo DR 78
30 29 Zimbabwe 77
31 30 Namibia 76
32 31 Sierra Leone 74
33 33 Madagascar 73
34 34 Cape Verde Islands 71
35 35 Chad 67
36 36 Burundi 52
----------------------------------
37 37 Equatorial Guinea 51
38 38 Botswana 49
39 39 Niger 47
40 40 Swaziland 43
41 41 Liberia 39
42 42 Ethiopia 29
43 43 Somalia 23
43 43 Mauritania 23
45 45 Lesotho 22
46 46 Eritrea 16
47 47 Mauritius 15
48 48 Guinea-Bissau 12

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for UEFA teams (12 August 2009)

The preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup took place on November 25th, 2007 and used the November 2007 FIFA ranking.

Assumptions:

- UEFA will again have 13 spots
- UEFA will again use the system with 9 groups
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- FIFA will hold the draw in November 2011

The November 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between November 2007 and November 2011. We already have the "0.2" part (matches played between November 2007 and November 2008) - that's basically 10% of the final ranking and a bit of the "0.3" part (matches played between November 2008 and November 2009). A lot can and will change before November 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving European teams: 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2009 FIFA Confederations Cup, 2010 FIFA World Cup, EURO 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.

UEFA will only use the national team coefficient for the European Championships draws (qualifying and final tournament).

This is the November 2011 ranking (for UEFA only) using matches played up to and including August 12th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to November 2009 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.3" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Croatia up to 3rd.

Norway climb from 5th pot to 3rd pot. As a result, Latvia drop to 4th pot, Finland to 5th pot.
Turkey up to 2nd pot, replacing Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Moldova up to 5th pot, replacing Armenia.

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
 1  1 Spain               368
2 2 Netherlands 293
3 7 Croatia 226
4 3 Russia 203
5 6 Germany 198
6 4 Italy 197
7 5 England 193
8 8 Serbia 182
9 9 Denmark 172
-----------------------------
10 11 Switzerland 164
11 14 Bulgaria 162
11 10 Ukraine 162
13 13 France 160
14 12 Greece 152
14 15 Israel 152
16 19 Turkey 149
17 16 Portugal 146
18 16 Republic of Ireland 142
-----------------------------
19 20 Northern Ireland 132
20 18 Bosnia-Herzegovina 130
20 22 Czech Republic 130
22 23 Romania 129
23 23 Sweden 126
24 21 Slovakia 124
25 26 Poland 119
26 37 Norway 117
27 25 Hungary 112
-----------------------------
28 29 Lithuania 101
29 27 Latvia 100
30 28 FYR Macedonia 99
31 33 Slovenia 97
32 35 Montenegro 96
33 30 Belarus 89
33 30 Scotland 89
35 32 Austria 87
36 33 Wales 85
-----------------------------
37 36 Finland 80
38 37 Belgium 78
39 41 Albania 68
40 39 Estonia 64
41 40 Cyprus 57
42 42 Iceland 56
43 43 Luxembourg 45
44 47 Moldova 38
45 44 Georgia 35
-----------------------------
45 44 Armenia 35
47 46 Kazakhstan 34
48 50 Malta 27
49 48 Azerbaijan 24
50 49 Faroe Islands 23
51 51 Liechtenstein 5
52 52 Andorra 0
52 52 San Marino 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (12 August 2009)

The coefficients for the EURO 2012 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2006 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

The draw will take place on 7 February 2010.

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland (26340) and Ukraine (24626) - automatically qualified as hosts).

France up to first pot, replacing Greece.

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
 1  1 Netherlands        36296
2 3 Germany 35393
3 2 Spain 34924
4 4 England 32299
5 5 Italy 31738
6 6 Croatia 31317
7 7 Russia 29706
8 11 France 28891
9 8 Serbia 28131
------------------------------
10 9 Greece 28045
11 10 Portugal 27939
12 12 Czech Republic 27491
13 13 Denmark 27222
14 14 Switzerland 27094
15 15 Sweden 27015
16 16 Turkey 26607
17 17 Romania 26205
18 18 Slovakia 25408
------------------------------
19 19 Israel 25091
20 20 Bulgaria 24758
21 21 Ireland 24448
22 25 Norway 24185
23 22 Scotland 24121
24 23 Northern Ireland 23758
25 24 Finland 23587
26 26 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22485
27 27 Hungary 21928
------------------------------
28 28 Austria 21560
29 29 Lithuania 20891
30 30 Latvia 20523
31 35 Slovenia 20441
32 31 Belgium 20345
33 32 Wales 20094
34 33 Belarus 19915
35 34 Macedonia 19484
36 36 Albania 17979
------------------------------
37 37 Cyprus 17171
38 38 Estonia 16692
39 39 Georgia 15959
40 40 Moldova 14994
41 41 Iceland 14904
42 42 Armenia 14044
43 43 Montenegro 13851
44 44 Kazakhstan 13590
45 45 Liechtenstein 13321
------------------------------
46 46 Azerbaijan 11960
47 47 Luxembourg 11692
48 48 Malta 11617
49 49 Faroe Islands 9580
50 50 Andorra 9457
51 51 San Marino 7983

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: September 2009 preview (II)

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches up to and including August 12th, 2009 (only those on fifa.com).

Next update: August 28th, 2009.

Still to play: St. Kitts - Jamaica (friendly), Nehru Cup (India, Syria, Sri Lanka, Lebanon, Kyrgyzstan), EAF Championship qualifiers (Korea DPR, Guam, Hong Kong, Chinese Taipei).

Some more matches played on August 12th could be added. For instance, Lesotho - Zimbabwe 1 - 1 is not yet on fifa.com.

Germany and Italy tied in 4th place.
Croatia and France swap places in the top 10.

Best movers:

13 - Kyrgyzstan*
10 - Congo
9 - Angola

Worst movers:

-22 - Congo DR
-17 - Tajikistan
-11 - India*, Cayman Islands and Samoa

Best movers in the top 50:

7 - Norway
6 - Mexico
5 - Chile

Worst movers in the top 50:

-7 - Uruguay
-6 - Ukraine and Scotland
-4 - Gabon and Hungary

Bahrain replace Saudi Arabia as 5th in AFC.

Ghana and Egypt tied for 3rd in CAF. Ghana overtake Nigeria and are now 4th, as Gabon drops out of the top 5. It's very close though - 5 African teams between 29th and 35th.

Trinidad and Tobago in the CONCACAF top 5, overtaking Canada and Jamaica.

Chile up to 3rd in CONMEBOL, going past Paraguay and Uruguay.

Three teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Serbia (13th - 14th in July 2009)
Australia (14th - 16th in July 2009)
Montenegro (90th - 96th in August 2009)

Benin will return to their best ever ranking - 79th, first achieved in August 2007.

Five teams will have their worst ever ranking:

Morocco (57th - 55th in June 2009)
Peru (92nd - 89th in June 2009)
Congo DR (118th - 102nd in July 2009)
India* (167th - 165th in March 2007)
Tonga (193rd - 192nd in July 2007)

* - has matches left to play before the deadline.

September 2009 rank - Team - September 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Brazil 1604 0 -38
2 Spain 1588 0 -2
3 Netherlands 1376 0 -3
4 Germany 1186 0 -9
4 Italy 1186 1 5
6 Russia 1129 0 -32
7 England 1127 0 -8
8 Argentina 1113 0 33
9 Croatia 1101 1 70
10 France 1040 -1 -19
11 USA 974 1 -17
12 Greece 971 -1 -30
13 Serbia 916 1 -9
14 Australia 907 2 11
15 Switzerland 899 -2 -31
16 Denmark 892 -1 -17
17 Portugal 880 0 -1
18 Czech Republic 870 4 20
19 Bulgaria 859 4 20
20 Côte d'Ivoire 852 -2 -22
21 Chile 846 5 29
21 Israel 846 4 24
23 Paraguay 842 -3 -14
24 Mexico 835 6 36
25 Ukraine 829 -6 -40
26 Romania 827 1 13
27 Turkey 826 1 17
28 Uruguay 820 -7 -31
29 Cameroon 819 0 16
30 Scotland 804 -6 -33
31 Northern Ireland 795 1 11
32 Egypt 786 1 7
32 Ghana 786 3 14
34 Nigeria 773 0 0
35 Gabon 759 -4 -30
36 Ecuador 749 0 -19
36 Poland 749 4 43
38 Republic of Ireland 743 -1 -15
39 Costa Rica 735 -1 -7
40 Japan 734 -1 5
41 Sweden 723 0 21
42 Honduras 712 4 48
43 Norway 709 7 103
44 Algeria 707 3 46
45 Slovakia 686 -3 -1
46 Bosnia-Herzegovina 682 -2 2
47 Hungary 669 -4 -12
48 Colombia 657 -3 -11
49 Korea Republic 641 -1 15
50 Venezuela 604 4 21
51 Burkina Faso 602 0 4
52 Tunisia 601 -3 -13
53 Mali 593 5 42
54 Slovenia 576 6 37
55 Guinea 574 2 12
56 FYR Macedonia 569 -3 -20
57 Morocco 561 -2 -9
58 Latvia 555 -2 -8
59 Bolivia 547 4 25
60 Iran 541 1 7
61 Finland 537 -9 -56
62 Lithuania 533 -3 -12
63 Trinidad and Tobago 517 7 39
64 Bahrain 507 1 5
65 Saudi Arabia 505 -1 -15
66 Canada 504 0 6
67 Jamaica 488 2 -1
68 Wales 481 -1 -13
69 Belgium 480 -7 -53
70 Austria 473 -2 -20
71 Togo 454 0 -14
72 Uganda 448 3 7
73 South Africa 445 -1 -4
74 Oman 432 6 21
75 Panama 431 3 14
76 Cyprus 429 -3 -16
77 Belarus 420 -3 -24
78 Korea DPR 415 8 19
79 Benin 412 4 12
79 Congo 412 10 34
81 Senegal 410 3 11
82 Zambia 409 -5 -16
83 Libya 407 -8 -34
84 Qatar 400 1 3
85 Mozambique 399 -3 -3
86 El Salvador 398 -5 -10
86 Uzbekistan 398 -7 -14
88 Cuba 393 0 10
89 Moldova 391 -2 2
90 Montenegro 380 6 41
91 Syria 366 4 23
92 Peru 363 -3 -15
93 Angola 362 9 30
94 Albania 360 0 13
95 Tanzania 359 -2 9
96 Iceland 345 -4 -13
97 Sudan 343 -6 -24
98 Iraq 340 2 6
99 Gambia 337 -1 0
100 New Zealand 336 -1 0
101 Kenya 334 4 9
102 Namibia 331 1 5
103 Fiji 330 -2 -3
104 Barbados 326 2 6
105 China PR 313 3 1
106 Malawi 312 2 0
107 Antigua and Barbuda 311 1 -1
108 Grenada 305 5 0
109 Haiti 304 6 9
110 Kuwait 298 6 6
111 Guatemala 297 -4 -19
112 Cape Verde Islands 296 2 0
112 Georgia 296 -9 -30
114 Estonia 289 -2 -19
115 Thailand 286 2 -1
116 Luxembourg 282 3 -2
117 Rwanda 278 0 -9
118 Congo DR 275 -22 -64
119 Suriname 272 -8 -37
120 Zimbabwe 265 0 -16
121 Sierra Leone 241 4 0
122 Guyana 240 -1 -29
123 United Arab Emirates 238 1 -4
124 Chad 233 2 0
125 Armenia 231 -2 -12
125 Burundi 231 3 11
127 Singapore 223 0 -5
128 Equatorial Guinea 219 1 0
128 Jordan 219 -6 -26
130 Madagascar 208 2 6
131 Indonesia 202 3 16
132 Botswana 201 -1 -6
133 New Caledonia 199 5 31
134 Niger 190 -1 3
135 Hong Kong 186 -1 0
136 Ethiopia 181 0 3
136 Kazakhstan 181 -6 -27
138 Vanuatu 177 4 25
139 Azerbaijan 174 -2 -1
140 Malta 166 6 26
141 Nicaragua 165 -2 0
142 Yemen 163 -1 4
143 Liberia 161 -3 0
144 Myanmar 150 3 11
145 Vietnam 149 -1 0
146 Turkmenistan 145 -1 3
147 Kyrgyzstan 141 13 39
148 Lebanon 138 0 0
148 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 138 2 5
150 St. Kitts and Nevis 135 -1 0
151 Liechtenstein 124 -1 -9
152 Malaysia 121 0 1
153 Bermuda 119 -10 -31
154 Maldives 117 0 0
155 Swaziland 115 -2 -4
156 Eritrea 114 3 8
157 Sri Lanka 112 -1 0
158 Philippines 108 0 0
159 Mauritania 99 2 0
160 Solomon Islands 97 1 -2
161 Faroe Islands 96 2 0
161 Lesotho 96 3 1
163 Netherlands Antilles 88 2 0
164 Puerto Rico 87 2 0
165 Bangladesh 85 4 5
165 Pakistan 85 2 0
167 India 83 -11 -29
168 Somalia 82 0 0
169 Chinese Taipei 70 3 0
170 Laos 69 1 -4
171 Cambodia 67 2 3
172 Tajikistan 65 -17 -51
173 Palestine 62 4 5
174 Mongolia 61 1 0
175 Nepal 60 1 0
176 Belize 57 1 0
177 Bahamas 53 2 0
177 Seychelles 53 2 0
179 Turks and Caicos Islands 51 2 0
180 Brunei Darussalam 46 2 0
181 Cayman Islands 44 -11 -32
182 Mauritius 43 1 -2
183 Dominican Republic 40 1 0
184 Guinea-Bissau 38 2 0
184 Samoa 38 -11 -26
186 Cook Islands 34 1 0
186 Guam 34 1 0
188 Djibouti 33 1 0
189 St. Lucia 32 1 0
189 Tahiti 32 1 0
191 Afghanistan 30 1 0
191 British Virgin Islands 30 1 0
193 Macau 28 1 0
193 Tonga 28 -9 -12
195 Andorra 18 0 1
196 Bhutan 17 -1 0
197 Dominica 12 0 0
198 Aruba 11 0 0
199 Timor-Leste 9 0 0
200 Comoros 8 0 0
200 US Virgin Islands 8 0 0
202 Central African Republic 4 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Anguilla 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.