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Saturday, June 15, 2019

FIFA ranking: July 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA July 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: July 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the July 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on July 25th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match. 

FIFA ranking: July 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including July 21st, used to calculate the July 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 

Also the already played matches since June 12th, (probably) counting for the July ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: July 2019 probable ranking

With the June ranking published yesterday the action continues with three continental finals for CONMEBOL, CONCACAF and CAF to be played simultaneously. Furthermore, there are several preparatory friendlies for CAF-teams scheduled. And... almost all the OFC-nations have their first tournament since December 2017 with the Pacific Games in Samoa. New Zealand participates there with a U-23 team.

Thursday, June 13, 2019

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (12 June 2019)

The matchdays three and four in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played. See here for the simulation results after MD2.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

FIFA ranking: June 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Friday June 14th. 

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between April 1st and yesterday the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-05-29 Cayman Islands - Cuba 0:0 (Cayman Islands)
2019-05-31 Cayman Islands - Cuba 0:1 (Cayman Islands)
2019-06-07 Guinea - Gambia 0:1 (Morocco)
2019-06-07 Tajikistan - Afghanistan 1:1 (Tajikistan)
2019-06-09 Ghana - Namibia 0:1 (United Arab Emirates)
2019-06-09 Uganda - Turkmenistan 0:0 (United Arab Emirates)
2019-06-10 Trinidad and Tobago - Canada 0:2 (USA)