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Friday, April 30, 2010

The reason behind Portugal's best ever ranking

Why are Portugal 3rd? I've been asked this question a couple of times, so here's a quick post to answer.

There's one reason: Antonio Leonel Vilar Nogueira de Sousa, also known as Tonel. Portugal climbed to 3rd in the FIFA rankings (their best ever ranking) in the 63rd minute of their friendly against China PR, played on March 3rd in Coimbra (read the match report).

When Carlos Queiroz replaced Bruno Alves with Tonel, the match lost its A match status and it wasn't included in the FIFA ranking calculations, as I mentioned in one of the March 2010 FIFA ranking previews. Why? Because teams are allowed a maximum of 6 substitutions in a friendly match (see FIFA's circular no. 1150) - and Tonel was the 7th. Of course, the Chinese made the 6th and 7th substitions nine minutes later, so the match would have lost its A match status anyway.

Of Portugal's 1249 points (1248.844 to be more precise), 735.788 (6622 from 9 matches) are from the last 12 months. With the China match included (324.675 points), Portugal would have had 6946.675 points from 10 matches - for an average of 694.6675 points, thus losing 41 points. That would still be good enough for 4th place in the April ranking.

Portugal's 5 most valuable results are the Bosnia-Herzegovina wins in the WC play-off (2 x 131.67), the Hungary wins (2 x 127.50) and the Albania win (90).

You also have to take into account the fact that Portugal got two extremely valuable wins against Bosnia-Herzegovina (ranked 42nd at the time), while the other top 10 teams (France excepted) played friendlies, bringing their average down. Same story on March 3rd - Portugal "didn't play", while the other teams again played friendlies bringing their average down.

One final answer to this comment:

"While Portugal hasn't lost since Sept. 2008, they really haven't beaten any one either. The highest rated opponent they beat are currently ranked 49th. Does strength of schedule factor into this ranking at all? Or can a team make it all the way to the top by bulking up on a steady diet of minnows?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina were 42nd at the time of their matches against Portugal. Yes, it's about averages. Check the detailed totals section. No, you can't make your way to the top by defeating minnows in friendly games. Actually, for teams in the top 20 is usually better to avoid playing friendlies.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

FIFA Ranking: May 2010 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Next update: May 14th, 2010.

Probable May 2010 rank - Team - Probable May 2010 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Brazil 1611 0 0
2 Spain 1565 0 0
3 Portugal 1249 0 0
4 Netherlands 1231 0 10
5 Italy 1184 0 0
6 Germany 1082 0 -25
7 Argentina 1076 0 -8
8 England 1068 0 0
9 Croatia 1051 0 -1
10 France 1044 0 0
11 Russia 1015 0 12
12 Egypt 967 1 0
13 Greece 964 -1 -4
14 USA 957 0 7
15 Serbia 947 1 3
16 Mexico 908 1 -28
17 Uruguay 899 1 -3
18 Chile 888 -3 -60
19 Cameroon 887 0 0
20 Australia 886 0 3
21 Nigeria 883 -1 0
22 Norway 882 0 3
23 Ukraine 875 2 20
24 Switzerland 866 2 12
25 Slovenia 860 -2 0
26 Israel 857 -2 0
27 Romania 853 1 10
28 Côte d'Ivoire 846 -1 0
29 Czech Republic 827 0 0
30 Algeria 821 1 0
31 Paraguay 820 -1 -2
32 Turkey 812 1 14
33 Ghana 800 -1 -2
34 Slovakia 777 4 35
35 Colombia 776 -1 -1
36 Denmark 767 -1 0
37 Sweden 761 0 4
38 Honduras 734 2 7
39 Bulgaria 726 0 -14
40 Costa Rica 710 2 4
41 Republic of Ireland 709 2 19
42 Scotland 699 2 15
43 Japan 682 2 8
44 Gabon 680 -3 -27
45 Ecuador 678 -9 -85
46 Latvia 652 0 0
47 Korea Republic 632 0 13
48 Venezuela 621 1 16
49 Finland 613 0 8
50 Burkina Faso 611 2 22
51 Lithuania 608 -3 -8
52 Bosnia-Herzegovina 604 -1 0
53 Peru 578 0 -1
54 Mali 575 0 0
55 Tunisia 574 0 0
56 Northern Ireland 566 1 11
57 Hungary 565 -1 -2
58 Poland 561 0 9
59 Benin 531 0 0
60 FYR Macedonia 521 0 0
60 Iran 521 0 0
62 Canada 516 1 0
63 Belgium 507 -1 -11
64 Montenegro 500 1 0
65 Bolivia 499 2 8
66 Saudi Arabia 495 0 0
67 Cyprus 486 1 -2
68 Austria 479 -4 -30
69 Bahrain 475 0 0
70 Morocco 463 0 -6
71 Zambia 456 0 4
72 El Salvador 452 -1 0
73 Uganda 440 1 3
74 Wales 436 1 7
75 Panama 434 1 13
76 Togo 433 -3 -5
77 Senegal 422 0 8
78 New Zealand 410 0 -3
79 Jamaica 407 0 -5
80 Albania 406 0 0
81 Iraq 405 1 11
82 Belarus 397 -1 0
82 Malawi 397 0 3
84 China PR 387 1 -3
85 Mozambique 383 4 5
86 Guinea 381 1 0
87 Angola 379 -2 -11
88 Moldova 378 -4 -14
89 South Africa 376 1 7
90 Iceland 367 1 0
91 Haiti 362 -4 -19
92 Gambia 361 1 0
93 Uzbekistan 354 1 0
94 Oman 353 3 7
94 Trinidad and Tobago 353 -3 -14
96 Qatar 351 -1 0
97 Kuwait 350 -1 2
98 Syria 343 0 1
99 Armenia 311 0 0
100 United Arab Emirates 310 0 0
101 Libya 309 1 4
102 Congo 308 -1 0
103 Jordan 300 0 -1
104 Estonia 296 0 0
105 Thailand 290 0 -4
106 Korea DPR 285 0 -7
107 Rwanda 269 0 0
108 Tanzania 261 0 2
109 Azerbaijan 259 1 2
110 Zimbabwe 258 3 10
111 Yemen 252 -2 -6
112 Namibia 251 0 0
113 Kenya 243 1 0
114 Cape Verde Islands 241 3 5
114 Guatemala 241 1 0
116 Botswana 235 0 -2
117 Vietnam 231 1 0
118 Sudan 220 3 9
119 Antigua and Barbuda 218 0 1
120 Georgia 217 -1 0
121 Congo DR 215 -10 -38
122 Guyana 205 0 0
123 Ethiopia 200 0 -4
124 Grenada 198 0 0
125 Faroe Islands 196 0 0
126 Cuba 194 -1 -2
127 Luxembourg 193 0 0
127 Singapore 193 0 0
129 Kazakhstan 182 0 2
130 Sierra Leone 181 3 19
131 Swaziland 171 0 6
132 Fiji 167 -2 0
133 India 163 -1 -1
134 Bermuda 160 0 0
135 Barbados 155 0 -2
135 Tajikistan 155 0 -2
137 Indonesia 153 0 0
137 Suriname 153 3 6
139 Hong Kong 150 0 0
139 Turkmenistan 150 -2 -3
141 Equatorial Guinea 142 0 0
142 Maldives 129 1 0
143 Chad 128 1 0
144 Burundi 127 1 0
145 New Caledonia 126 1 0
146 Malaysia 123 1 0
147 Myanmar 122 -5 -19
148 Madagascar 121 1 6
149 Liechtenstein 117 -1 0
150 Liberia 114 2 2
151 St. Kitts and Nevis 113 0 0
152 Lesotho 109 -3 -6
153 Vanuatu 108 0 0
154 Netherlands Antilles 103 3 5
155 Eritrea 101 4 6
155 Nicaragua 101 0 0
157 Bangladesh 100 3 6
157 Malta 100 -3 -3
159 Sri Lanka 99 -3 0
160 Lebanon 98 -3 0
161 Nepal 96 0 4
162 Niger 92 -1 0
163 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 91 1 0
164 Mauritania 81 1 0
165 Pakistan 78 1 0
166 Puerto Rico 76 2 0
167 Chinese Taipei 75 -1 -3
168 Kyrgyzstan 74 -7 -18
169 Philippines 67 1 12
170 Solomon Islands 60 -1 0
171 Comoros 43 1 0
172 Mauritius 40 1 0
173 Cayman Islands 39 1 0
173 Laos 39 1 0
173 Palestine 39 1 0
173 Somalia 39 1 0
177 Samoa 38 2 0
178 Seychelles 37 -4 -2
179 Belize 36 2 2
179 Mongolia 36 1 0
181 Bahamas 34 0 0
181 Cook Islands 34 0 0
183 Dominica 33 1 0
184 Turks and Caicos Islands 32 1 0
185 Cambodia 30 -14 -24
186 Tonga 28 0 0
187 Dominican Republic 26 0 0
188 Djibouti 23 0 0
189 Afghanistan 21 4 4
189 Brunei Darussalam 21 4 4
191 Guinea-Bissau 19 -2 0
191 St. Lucia 19 -2 0
191 Tahiti 19 -2 0
194 British Virgin Islands 18 -2 0
195 Guam 17 -2 0
196 Bhutan 15 1 4
197 Macau 13 -1 -2
198 Aruba 11 -1 0
199 US Virgin Islands 5 0 0
200 Timor-Leste 4 0 0
201 Andorra 2 0 0
202 American Samoa 0 0 0
202 Anguilla 0 0 0
202 Central African Republic 0 0 0
202 Montserrat 0 0 0
202 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
202 San Marino 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: May 2010 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the May 2010 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

28/Apr South Africa - Jamaica X (Friendly)
05/May Argentina - Haiti 1 (Friendly)
05/May Chile - Trinidad and Tobago 1 (Friendly)
07/May Mexico - Ecuador 1 (Friendly)
10/May Mexico - Senegal 1 (Friendly)
13/May Germany - Malta 1 (Friendly)
13/May Mexico - Angola 1 (Friendly)
15/May Paraguay - Korea DPR 1 (Friendly)
16/May Mexico - Chile 1 (Friendly)
16/May Korea Republic - Ecuador 1 (Friendly)
19/May Belgium - Bulgaria X (Friendly)
19/May Gabon - Togo X (Friendly)
19/May Austria - Croatia 2 (Friendly)

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: May 2010 preview

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches up to and including April 22nd, 2010.

Next update: May 14th, 2010.

April 2010 rank - Country - April 2010 points - Minimum points - Maximum points

1 Brazil 1611 1611 1611
2 Spain 1565 1565 1565
3 Portugal 1249 1249 1249
4 Netherlands 1221 1231 1231
5 Italy 1184 1184 1184
6 Germany 1107 1067 1082
7 Argentina 1084 1053 1076
8 England 1068 1068 1068
9 Croatia 1052 1000 1051
10 France 1044 1044 1044
11 Russia 1003 1015 1015
12 Greece 968 964 964
13 Egypt 967 967 967
14 USA 950 957 957
15 Chile 948 866 923
16 Serbia 944 947 947
17 Mexico 936 840 908
18 Uruguay 902 899 899
19 Cameroon 887 887 887
20 Australia 883 886 886
20 Nigeria 883 883 883
22 Norway 879 882 882
23 Slovenia 860 860 860
24 Israel 857 857 857
25 Ukraine 855 875 875
26 Switzerland 854 866 866
27 Côte d'Ivoire 846 846 846
28 Romania 843 853 853
29 Czech Republic 827 827 827
30 Paraguay 822 796 820
31 Algeria 821 821 821
32 Ghana 802 800 800
33 Turkey 798 812 812
34 Colombia 777 776 776
35 Denmark 767 767 767
36 Ecuador 763 678 770
37 Sweden 757 761 761
38 Slovakia 742 777 777
39 Bulgaria 740 711 757
40 Honduras 727 734 734
41 Gabon 707 670 700
42 Costa Rica 706 710 710
43 Republic of Ireland 690 709 709
44 Scotland 684 699 699
45 Japan 674 682 682
46 Latvia 652 652 652
47 Korea Republic 619 604 632
48 Lithuania 616 608 608
49 Finland 605 613 613
49 Venezuela 605 621 621
51 Bosnia-Herzegovina 604 604 604
52 Burkina Faso 589 611 611
53 Peru 579 578 578
54 Mali 575 575 575
55 Tunisia 574 574 574
56 Hungary 567 565 565
57 Northern Ireland 555 566 566
58 Poland 552 561 561
59 Benin 531 531 531
60 FYR Macedonia 521 521 521
60 Iran 521 521 521
62 Belgium 518 491 539
63 Canada 516 516 516
64 Austria 509 479 543
65 Montenegro 500 500 500
66 Saudi Arabia 495 495 495
67 Bolivia 491 499 499
68 Cyprus 488 486 486
69 Bahrain 475 475 475
70 Morocco 469 463 463
71 El Salvador 452 452 452
71 Zambia 452 456 456
73 Togo 438 418 463
74 Uganda 437 440 440
75 Wales 429 436 436
76 Panama 421 434 434
77 Senegal 414 422 515
78 New Zealand 413 410 410
79 Jamaica 412 399 423
80 Albania 406 406 406
81 Belarus 397 397 397
82 Iraq 394 405 405
82 Malawi 394 397 397
84 Moldova 392 378 378
85 Angola 390 379 411
85 China PR 390 387 387
87 Guinea 381 381 381
87 Haiti 381 362 438
89 Mozambique 378 383 383
90 South Africa 369 371 387
91 Iceland 367 367 367
91 Trinidad and Tobago 367 353 410
93 Gambia 361 361 361
94 Uzbekistan 354 354 354
95 Qatar 351 351 351
96 Kuwait 348 350 350
97 Oman 346 353 353
98 Syria 342 343 343
99 Armenia 311 311 311
100 United Arab Emirates 310 310 310
101 Congo 308 308 308
102 Libya 305 309 309
103 Jordan 301 300 300
104 Estonia 296 296 296
105 Thailand 294 290 290
106 Korea DPR 292 285 311
107 Rwanda 269 269 269
108 Tanzania 259 261 261
109 Yemen 258 252 252
110 Azerbaijan 257 259 259
111 Congo DR 253 215 215
112 Namibia 251 251 251
113 Zimbabwe 248 258 258
114 Kenya 243 243 243
115 Guatemala 241 241 241
116 Botswana 237 235 235
117 Cape Verde Islands 236 241 241
118 Vietnam 231 231 231
119 Antigua and Barbuda 217 218 218
119 Georgia 217 217 217
121 Sudan 211 220 220
122 Guyana 205 205 205
123 Ethiopia 204 200 200
124 Grenada 198 198 198
125 Cuba 196 194 194
125 Faroe Islands 196 196 196
127 Luxembourg 193 193 193
127 Singapore 193 193 193
129 Kazakhstan 180 182 182
130 Fiji 167 167 167
131 Swaziland 165 171 171
132 India 164 163 163
133 Sierra Leone 162 181 181
134 Bermuda 160 160 160
135 Barbados 157 155 155
135 Tajikistan 157 155 155
137 Indonesia 153 153 153
137 Turkmenistan 153 150 150
139 Hong Kong 150 150 150
140 Suriname 147 153 153
141 Equatorial Guinea 142 142 142
142 Myanmar 141 122 122
143 Maldives 129 129 129
144 Chad 128 128 128
145 Burundi 127 127 127
146 New Caledonia 126 126 126
147 Malaysia 123 123 123
148 Liechtenstein 117 117 117
149 Lesotho 115 109 109
149 Madagascar 115 121 121
151 St. Kitts and Nevis 113 113 113
152 Liberia 112 114 114
153 Vanuatu 108 108 108
154 Malta 103 100 158
155 Nicaragua 101 101 101
156 Sri Lanka 99 99 99
157 Lebanon 98 98 98
157 Netherlands Antilles 98 103 103
159 Eritrea 95 101 101
160 Bangladesh 94 100 100
161 Kyrgyzstan 92 74 74
161 Nepal 92 96 96
161 Niger 92 92 92
164 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 91 91 91
165 Mauritania 81 81 81
166 Chinese Taipei 78 75 75
166 Pakistan 78 78 78
168 Puerto Rico 76 76 76
169 Solomon Islands 60 60 60
170 Philippines 55 67 67
171 Cambodia 54 30 30
172 Comoros 43 43 43
173 Mauritius 40 40 40
174 Cayman Islands 39 39 39
174 Laos 39 39 39
174 Palestine 39 39 39
174 Seychelles 39 37 37
174 Somalia 39 39 39
179 Samoa 38 38 38
180 Mongolia 36 36 36
181 Bahamas 34 34 34
181 Belize 34 36 36
181 Cook Islands 34 34 34
184 Dominica 33 33 33
185 Turks and Caicos Islands 32 32 32
186 Tonga 28 28 28
187 Dominican Republic 26 26 26
188 Djibouti 23 23 23
189 Guinea-Bissau 19 19 19
189 St. Lucia 19 19 19
189 Tahiti 19 19 19
192 British Virgin Islands 18 18 18
193 Afghanistan 17 21 21
193 Brunei Darussalam 17 21 21
193 Guam 17 17 17
196 Macau 15 13 13
197 Aruba 11 11 11
197 Bhutan 11 15 15
199 US Virgin Islands 5 5 5
200 Timor-Leste 4 4 4
201 Andorra 2 2 2
202 American Samoa 0 0 0
202 Anguilla 0 0 0
202 Central African Republic 0 0 0
202 Montserrat 0 0 0
202 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
202 San Marino 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.