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Friday, May 20, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (20 May 2011)

Next update:  3 June 2011, well, if the end of the world is not coming tomorrow :)

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.


  • Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
  • The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (20 May 2011)

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (20 May 2011)

Italy no longer safe in Pot 1 after scheduling a friendly against the Republic of Ireland, although it's extremely unlikely for them to drop to the second pot.

Nine teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on

Spain, Netherlands, Germany and England in Pot 1.
Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia in Pot 2.
Andorra and Kazakhstan in Pot 6.

Cyprus appear 100% in Pot 5, but they could also drop to Pot 6 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.

Albania have scheduled a friendly away against Argentina. Their chances for pot 3 drop from 25.17% to 12.25%. Three teams increase their chances for pot 3 by more than 2%: Belarus gain 4.28% (now at 74%), Bulgaria gain 3.56% (now at 36.21%) and Romania gain 3.47% (now at 12.38%).

Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots (no change from last time). In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales


  1. Pots 3-5 are pretty much even teams. Therefore, the pots themselves are not that relevant. Unless you get Spain from Pot 1 and France from Pot 2, you should always have a chance.

  2. Dream Group for Poland:

    Greece- Pot 1
    Montenegro- Pot 2
    Belarus- Pot 3
    Armenia- Pot 4
    POLAND - Pot 5
    San Marino - Pot 6

    If you dont get the likes of Spain, Germany or Holland from Pot 1 and are able to stay clear of France from Pot 2, then anything is really possible. Most teams from Pots 3 t0 5 can compete again each other without anyone being a favorite. Good luck to everyone!

  3. Group of death...