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Friday, May 6, 2011

2011 Gold Cup sims

10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

There's a 15.50% probability of a final that doesn't involve one of USA and Mexico.USA - Mexico final - 35.35%
USA - Mexico semifinal - 0.71%
USA - Mexico quarterfinal - 5.80%
No USA - Mexico match - 58.14%

Champions:

36.12% - Mexico
34.30% - USA
8.43% - Honduras
6.89% - Costa Rica
5.85% - Jamaica
3.16% - Panama
2.70% - Canada
0.78% - Guadeloupe
0.62% - Cuba
0.62% - El Salvador
0.49% - Guatemala
0.04% - Grenada

Losing finalists:

24.80% - Mexico
24.63% - USA
11.19% - Honduras
10.75% - Costa Rica
9.73% - Jamaica
5.93% - Panama
5.73% - Canada
2.08% - El Salvador
1.86% - Guadeloupe
1.73% - Cuba
1.42% - Guatemala
0.15% - Grenada

Losing semifinalists:

31.51% - Honduras
30.17% - Costa Rica
29.83% - Jamaica
20.67% - USA
19.45% - Mexico
17.74% - Canada
17.03% - Panama
8.39% - Guatemala
8.27% - Cuba
8.10% - El Salvador
7.23% - Guadeloupe
1.61% - Grenada

Losing quarterfinalists:

49.68% - Jamaica
46.13% - Honduras
45.74% - Guatemala
40.74% - Canada
39.92% - Panama
39.41% - Costa Rica
30.19% - Cuba
28.64% - El Salvador
24.20% - Guadeloupe
18.69% - Grenada
18.44% - USA
18.22% - Mexico

Eliminated as worst 3rd place:

17.76% - Cuba
15.53% - Grenada
12.33% - Guatemala
11.92% - Guadeloupe
11.32% - Panama
11.08% - Canada
10.86% - El Salvador
4.81% - Costa Rica
2.06% - Jamaica
1.20% - Honduras
0.62% - USA
0.51% - Mexico

Fourth in group:

63.98% - Grenada
54.01% - Guadeloupe
49.70% - El Salvador
41.43% - Cuba
31.63% - Guatemala
22.64% - Panama
22.01% - Canada
7.97% - Costa Rica
2.85% - Jamaica
1.54% - Honduras
1.34% - USA
0.90% - Mexico

2 comments:

  1. I guess you simly treated the KO matches as 90 minutes matches without extra time. Am I right?

    ReplyDelete