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Monday, May 16, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (16 May 2011)

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumptions:

  • Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
  • The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (16 May 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (16 May 2011)

Slovenia are now 100% in Pot 2 after canceling a friendly against Macedonia.

Ten teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).

Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England and Italy in Pot 1.
Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia in Pot 2.
Andorra and Kazakhstan in Pot 6.

Cyprus appear 100% in Pot 5, but they could also drop to Pot 6 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.

Russia have scheduled a friendly against Cameroon in Austria. This affects their chances for Pot 1 - falling from 13.11% to 4.93%. Norway gain 3.96% and are now at 80.48%.

Macedonia's chances for Pot 4 have increased by 5.37% after canceling their friendly against Slovenia. Austria also gain 4.42% and are now at 55.27%. Armenia are affected by this - dropping by 8.12% to 42.55%.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots (no change from last time). In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales

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