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Friday, May 20, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (20 May 2011)

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings, assuming "latest edition" means the July ranking.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): Simulation results by pot (20 May 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): Simulation results by team (20 May 2011)

13 teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).

Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Algeria and Senegal in Pot 1.
Lesotho, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritius, Seychelles and Sao Tome e Principe in Pot 5.

Rwanda appear 100% in Pot 4, but they could also drop to Pot 5 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tunisia
Pot 2: Botswana, Cape Verde Islands, Gabon, Guinea, Libya, Malawi, Mali, Morocco, Uganda, Zambia
Pot 3: Angola, Benin, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Zimbabwe
Pot 4 (Pot 1 in the preliminary draw): Congo, Congo DR, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Madagascar, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Togo
Pot 5 (Pot 2 in the preliminary draw): Burundi, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Lesotho, Liberia, Mauritius, Sao Tome e Principe, Seychelles, Somalia, Swaziland

3 comments:

  1. I'm starting to wonder which Libya will compete.

    ReplyDelete
  2. How exactly did you do the simulations?

    ReplyDelete
  3. I used Elo Ratings win expectancy to define win/draw/loss probability.

    ReplyDelete