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Friday, August 2, 2013

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on August 8th.

Three matches left - all CHAN qualifiers (friendlies for FIFA ranking purposes): Zambia - Botswana, Namibia - Mozambique and Zimbabwe - Mauritius.

This is how the points could change for these 6 teams:

Zambia (L: 538, D: 542, W: 550)
Botswana (L: 339, D: 348, W: 365)
Mozambique (L: 314, D: 319, W: 328)
Zimbabwe (L: 288, D: 292, W: 299)
Namibia (L: 219, D: 226, W: 240)
Mauritius (L: 70, D: 82, W: 106)

In the table below, the values displayed for these 6 teams are the lowest possible, thus even if they lose, their totals won't drop.

Cape Verde Islands will be ranked above Japan, Venezuela, Serbia, Republic of Ireland, Australia, Paraguay and Korea Republic for the first time ever.

Dominican Republic will be ranked above Canada for the first time ever.

Iran will overtake Korea Republic for the first time since March 2009.

Bosnia-Herzegovina will overtake Côte d'Ivoire for the first time since June 2009.

Honduras will overtake Paraguay (first time since October 1996), Australia (May 2008), Republic of Ireland and Korea Republic (both since May 2010).

Five teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Bosnia-Herzegovina (13 - 14 in July 2013)
Cape Verde Islands (36 - 49 in July 2013)
Dominican Republic (86 - 90 in July 2013)
New Caledonia (93 - 95 in September 2008)
Philippines (141 - 143 in November 2012)

One team will return to its best ever ranking:

Afghanistan (139 - 139 in April 2013)

Two teams will drop to new lows:

Cambodia (199 - 198 in July 2013)
South Sudan (203 - 200 in November 2012)

Two teams will have their worst ever drop in the ranking: Aruba (-14) and South Sudan (-5).

Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:

Jordan (71 - 69 in September 2005) - 7 years and 11 months
United Arab Emirates (84 - 83 in November 2006) - 6 years and 9 months
Mauritania (151 - 150 in March 2009) - 4 years and 5 months
Suriname (101 - 84 in September 2008) - 4 years and 11 months
Kyrgyzstan (135 - 127 in October 2008) - 4 years and 10 months
Mauritius (177 - 177 in July 2010) - 3 years and 1 month
USA (19 - 19 in March 2011) - 2 years and 5 months
Hong Kong (144 - 140 in March 2011) - 2 years and 5 months
Honduras (43 - 43 in May 2011) - 2 years and 3 months
Maldives (153 - 151 in June 2011) - 2 years and 2 months
Uganda (77 - 76 in July 2011) - 2 years and 1 month

Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:

Paraguay (49 - 63 in July 1996) - 17 years and 1 month
Turkey (58 - 60 in October 1998) - 14 years and 10 months
Korea Republic (56 - 58 in July 2007) - 6 years and 1 month
Malawi (118 - 126 in June 2008) - 5 years and 2 months
Vietnam (156 - 159 in November 2008) - 4 years and 9 months
Mongolia (187 - 193 in March 2009) - 4 years and 5 months
Zimbabwe (115 - 126 in May 2011) - 2 years and 3 months
Bahamas (191 - 197 in June 2011) - 2 years and 2 months
Angola (98 - 100 in July 2011) - 2 years and 1 month
Canada (91 - 102 in August 2011) - 2 years

Best movers:

21 - Mauritania
20 - Cameroon
15 - Botswana

Botswana can still improve (by 3 more spots).

Worst movers:

-32 - Equatorial Guinea
-14 - Aruba
-13 - Korea Republic and Belize

Best movers in the top 50:

13 - Cape Verde Islands
12 - Honduras
11 - Panama

Worst movers in the top 50:

-13 - Korea Republic
-6 - Australia, Burkina Faso and Tunisia
-5 - Côte d'Ivoire

USA will overtake Mexico for the first time since May 2011. They dropped below Mexico after the 2011 Gold Cup.

August 2013 rank - Team - August 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1484 0 -48
2 Germany 1257 0 -16
3 Colombia 1219 0 13
4 Argentina 1210 0 6
5 Netherlands 1165 0 -15
6 Italy 1142 0 0
7 Portugal 1099 0 0
8 Croatia 1098 0 0
9 Brazil 1089 0 -6
10 Belgium 1079 0 0
11 Greece 1038 0 0
12 Uruguay 998 0 -18
13 Bosnia-Herzegovina 995 1 0
14 England 994 1 0
15 Switzerland 987 1 0
16 Russia 979 1 0
17 Ecuador 972 1 40
18 Côte d'Ivoire 962 -5 -47
19 USA 960 3 95
20 Mexico 879 0 -1
21 Chile 871 0 -1
22 Peru 855 -3 -43
23 France 838 0 0
24 Ghana 830 0 0
25 Norway 801 0 0
26 Czech Republic 797 0 0
27 Denmark 788 0 0
28 Montenegro 774 0 0
28 Ukraine 774 0 0
30 Sweden 765 1 0
31 Hungary 749 1 0
32 Mali 735 -4 -39
33 Romania 732 0 0
34 Algeria 730 0 0
35 Nigeria 700 0 -23
36 Cape Verde Islands 696 13 76
37 Japan 695 0 6
38 Albania 689 -1 0
39 Venezuela 688 -3 -16
40 Panama 679 11 78
41 Serbia 661 0 0
42 Costa Rica 651 -3 -37
43 Honduras 640 12 58
44 Republic of Ireland 639 0 0
45 Slovenia 634 0 0
46 Australia 630 -6 -41
46 Wales 630 0 0
48 Burkina Faso 618 -6 -38
49 Paraguay 614 -1 -8
50 Scotland 610 0 0
51 Cameroon 604 20 87
52 Iran 601 0 5
53 Bulgaria 596 -1 0
53 Tunisia 596 -6 -31
55 Austria 595 -1 0
56 Korea Republic 594 -13 -48
57 New Zealand 582 -2 0
58 Turkey 573 -1 0
59 Uzbekistan 566 -1 3
60 Egypt 544 2 1
61 Slovakia 542 2 0
62 Israel 540 2 0
63 Bolivia 538 5 10
63 Zambia 538 -3 -16
65 Finland 537 0 0
66 Armenia 534 0 0
67 South Africa 530 -8 -28
68 Guinea 526 -7 -19
69 Libya 518 1 0
70 Iceland 499 3 0
71 Jordan 495 5 6
72 Poland 493 3 0
73 Belarus 482 5 0
74 Haiti 476 -5 -46
75 Morocco 474 4 4
76 Jamaica 469 1 -15
77 Uganda 468 3 2
78 Senegal 452 -4 -45
78 Trinidad and Tobago 452 9 33
80 Sierra Leone 443 3 0
81 Gabon 440 0 -19
82 Togo 436 -10 -75
83 El Salvador 431 11 49
84 United Arab Emirates 429 1 -3
85 Estonia 423 1 0
86 Dominican Republic 421 4 25
87 Congo DR 407 -3 -27
88 Central African Republic 398 1 0
89 FYR Macedonia 395 3 0
90 Cuba 389 -8 -69
91 Canada 386 -3 -27
92 Congo 385 -2 -11
93 Guatemala 377 0 -11
93 New Caledonia 377 4 0
95 China PR 370 5 31
95 Oman 370 4 9
97 Georgia 369 1 0
98 Angola 364 -2 -16
99 Equatorial Guinea 348 -32 -184
100 Suriname 344 9 33
101 Botswana 339 15 38
102 Ethiopia 338 -7 -43
103 Liberia 335 0 11
104 Iraq 328 -3 -7
105 Niger 323 2 10
106 Lithuania 321 -2 0
107 Saudi Arabia 316 -2 1
108 Mozambique 314 -6 -12
109 Northern Ireland 307 2 0
110 Korea DPR 306 2 0
111 Qatar 305 1 -1
112 Kuwait 304 -2 -5
113 Benin 302 2 0
114 Tajikistan 301 -8 -13
115 Azerbaijan 298 2 0
116 Zimbabwe 288 -2 -16
117 Bahrain 286 1 0
118 Malawi 283 -10 -29
119 Latvia 280 0 0
120 Lebanon 277 9 31
121 Antigua and Barbuda 272 1 7
122 Grenada 264 1 0
123 Cyprus 256 2 0
123 Moldova 256 2 0
125 Turkmenistan 254 11 22
126 Guyana 250 2 0
127 Tanzania 249 -6 -22
128 Burundi 243 -8 -30
128 Kenya 243 -5 -21
130 Puerto Rico 241 1 0
131 Rwanda 240 3 7
132 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 238 0 0
133 Malta 236 0 0
134 Kyrgyzstan 228 3 1
134 Sudan 228 0 -5
136 Thailand 223 2 0
137 Namibia 219 -10 -33
138 St. Kitts and Nevis 218 1 0
139 Afghanistan 214 1 0
140 Luxembourg 210 1 0
141 Philippines 208 3 5
142 St. Lucia 207 -1 -3
143 Belize 205 -13 -37
144 Hong Kong 180 4 7
145 India 177 1 -1
146 Barbados 175 1 0
147 Syria 174 -4 -31
148 Liechtenstein 173 0 0
149 Kazakhstan 172 1 0
150 Palestine 168 1 1
151 Mauritania 159 21 65
152 Solomon Islands 152 10 20
153 Maldives 150 1 3
154 Tahiti 147 0 0
155 Singapore 142 1 -4
156 Bermuda 139 1 0
156 Vietnam 139 -11 -43
158 Bangladesh 138 -6 -28
158 Nicaragua 138 0 0
160 Chad 135 0 1
160 Lesotho 135 1 2
162 Malaysia 133 -3 -3
163 Dominica 124 2 0
163 Gambia 124 1 -2
165 Myanmar 120 -2 -9
165 Sao Tome e Principe 120 1 0
167 Aruba 114 -14 -49
167 Pakistan 114 0 0
169 Indonesia 99 -1 -13
170 Nepal 95 -1 -11
170 Sri Lanka 95 1 0
172 Laos 84 1 -3
173 Yemen 83 -3 -13
174 Faroe Islands 81 0 0
175 Chinese Taipei 75 0 -2
176 Guam 71 0 1
177 Mauritius 70 5 18
178 Vanuatu 67 11 24
179 Montserrat 66 -2 0
180 Swaziland 62 -1 2
181 Curacao 61 -3 -4
182 Guinea-Bissau 58 -2 0
183 Brunei Darussalam 52 -1 0
183 Timor-Leste 52 -1 0
185 Fiji 50 6 9
185 Madagascar 50 0 -1
187 Mongolia 49 -1 0
188 Samoa 46 -1 0
189 Tonga 43 0 0
190 US Virgin Islands 42 -3 -4
191 Bahamas 40 -10 -13
192 Cayman Islands 33 2 0
192 Comoros 33 -1 -8
194 American Samoa 30 1 0
195 Eritrea 24 1 0
195 Seychelles 24 5 5
197 Papua New Guinea 23 0 0
198 British Virgin Islands 21 -5 -13
199 Cambodia 20 -1 0
200 Somalia 14 1 0
201 Macau 13 1 1
202 Djibouti 11 1 0
203 South Sudan 10 -5 -10
204 Cook Islands 9 0 0
205 Andorra 8 0 0
206 Anguilla 2 0 -1
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

82 comments:

  1. Egypt will paly against Mali& Guinea
    (3*0.86* 168)= 433.44
    (3*2.5* 132*.86)= 851.4

    WHAT IS MAXIMUM POINTS THAT EGYPT CAN REACH AFTER WINING THESE 2 MATCHES?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For the September ranking, as Ed posted in another comment thread, Egypt would have 620 points with 2 wins.

      Delete
  2. Just a quick update on Croatian efforts NOT to be seeded at the World cup. They arranged another friendly, with South Korea on 10 September in Seoul (!), only 4 days after a crucial qualifier against Serbia in Belgrade. Most likely they will send the reserves to Seoul and lose the match. So I've officialy stopped hoping. People in HNS are too stupid to be seeded. I hope Belgium takes the spot.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The HNS will probably make quite a bit of money from such a friendly so I wouldn't exactly call them stupid, especially as it may partially help fund their trip to Brazil.

      Delete
    2. I doubt they're stupid, they just don't know any better.

      If they do send the reserves it's a waste, and disrespectful to Korea. But if it's first team vs first team (of course they can experiment a bit), it should be a useful preparation match.

      Delete
    3. I'm from Belgium and I don't think anyone here is worried about wether or not we'll be seeded. We're not qualified yet so qualification is the only thing that matters. Sure we have a friendly against France coming up, but that's always bit of a derby-atmosphere so that could go either way.

      Let's just first make sure that both Belgium and Croatia make it to the World Cup, both teams deserve to be there.

      Delete
    4. Agreed, but it doesn't hurt (and it's fun) to look ahead at all kinds of what-if situations and then surely another Croatian friendly could just be the famous straw that breaks the camel's back.
      Btw, nogomet, no confirmation yet on fifa.com.

      Delete
    5. The Korea friendly is finally included.
      Ouch! Even a win against South Korea will cost Croatia some 30 FIFA points. Elo predicts (just) a draw at the moment.

      Delete
    6. I've spoken to a high ranked person in HNS and mentioned the possibility of making 7 substitutions during the friendly matches vs Liechtenstein and Korea which would make those matches not count for the ranking. He liked the idea and said he will speak with the president Suker about it. So let's wait and see if the plan works out tomorrow and/or on September 10.

      Delete
    7. nogomet,

      that would be a stern test case for the whole concept of using the ranking for seeding purposes while the ranking itself is evidently 'easy' to manipulate.

      I posted earlier somewhere that top teams would not willingly bend the 'inclusion' rules to manipulate the ranking in their favor. I have to take back those words. I think it is a bit sad, but Croatia has only itself to blame if they decide to lower themselves to this kind of measures.

      A lot of eyes will be on Croatia in Vaduz tomorrow.

      Delete
    8. This wouldn't be the first time a match was excluded from the ranking due to the number of substitutions. Belgium - Croatia friendly in 2010 was one of those and I imagine there are many others in the world. Teams are free to decide how many players they want to test in a match. Why is that a wrong thing to do? Only because it benefits Croatia?

      Moreover, if this proves to be a step towards stop calculating friendlies for the ranking and/or stop using FIFA ranking for the seeding, then it would be a welcome decision, IMO.

      Delete
    9. nogomet, it is wrong to willingly get these friendlies excluded from the ranking because it will be the first time that the seeding for a World Cup draw can be immediately and grossly influenced by such a measure. And it is wrong because it not only benefits Croatia but at the same time disadvantages other teams who try to gain a seeded spot fair and square, not bending the rules to the max (yes, I'm talking about the Netherlands who could be the unlucky team to drop outside the seeded spots because of this decision).

      IF HNS decides to follow your suggestion, they want to have the best of both worlds: the revenues from the friendlies, but not the bad influence of the friendlies on their ranking.

      Within the limits of the current set of rules, for me this would qualify as unsportsmanlike behaviour.

      Delete
    10. Ed, if it is unsportsmanlike behaviour to make 7 substitutions in one match, then why does FIFA allow it? It makes no sense. If a team decides to exercise their RIGHT to substitute 7 players to try out some new players, then who is it to say that they shouldn't do it? Or should it be allowed only if it hurts your ranking? Like I said, 7 substitution matches happen all the time, it's nothing new. If Croatia weren't fighting for the seeded spot, nobody would care.

      Delete
    11. nogomet, your last sentence hits the sore spot.

      Of course, matches with 7 or more substitutions occur now and then and are allowed by FIFA, they just don't count for the ranking. I'm OK with that and never have objected against it until now.
      It is this specific, conscious action (IF Croatia will follow your suggestion) under these specific circumstances (fighting for a seeded spot) that I would qualify as unsportsmanlike.

      As you said it yourself in your first post in this discussion "I've officially stopped hoping (to be seeded)".
      Well, apparently you've unofficially not quite stopped hoping and found another way (via the rule book) to enlarge Croatia's chance of becoming seeded :D

      I truly hope that Croatia can reach that goal without needing such tricks. In fact, I believe they can. We'll see tomorrow how strong Croatia really is.

      Delete
    12. "We'll see tomorrow how strong Croatia really is."

      Hardly, it's Liechtenstein they're facing. Also, there's going to be a couple of debuts, from the Croatian league. There always are in matches like these. Mostly there are even more than 7 substitutions too.

      Revenue from a friendly with Liechtenstein?? The people in the FA are huge egomaniacs, Croatia are playing minnows to pander their egoes. Suker was notorius even during his playing years, cost him his status at Real in 1997.

      I understand this bothers you, but Croatian fans don't like it even more when they see sport overall and many athletes personally suffering because of not only egos but even more the omnipresent corruption in Croatian sports. Basketball is almost dead (20 y ago Croatia was the team playing against the original Dream Team in the finals). So I hope you'll understand us too if we don't mind one bit if we avoid being punished by not being seeded because of Suker's ego by bending rules. If the subs happen because of this in the first place - when Croatia last played a friendly against such a weak opponent they've made 10 subs.

      Delete
    13. Ed, I think you're overreacting a bit. If it's OK to make 7 substitutions, than it doesn't matter what the motives are. By your standards, one could consider not arranging a friendly as unsportsmanlike behaviour also. You mentioned the money earned from friendlies. However, in this particular case, Croatia will earn only pocket change from Liechtestein game. And even if they did earn a lot, as a fan why should I care about HNS money? I care about football and seedings, money that HNS earns doesn't mean anything to me.

      The FIFA rankings do not represent the real strength of teams and are a terrible way to seed teams, so I don't see any moral dilemmas by legally exploiting such bad system that needs to be replaced ASAP. Any system that turns up with Norway as a top seed in Europe is a joke and needs to be replaced. If Croatia does exploit it and such events lead to a creation of a better and more realistic system, then this should be welcomed, don't you think?

      On my "official hopes", my only hope is that Croatia qualifies for WC. :) I mentioned the "7 substitutions" thing to an HNS official more in jest then in seriousness, but I was surprised by his answer. So my hopes are a bit up again, but, as I said, the main thing is to get qualified. The seeding thing is only a bonus. I won't beat myself much about it if we don't get it. But it would be nice that the reason for not getting it is a defeat against Scotland or Belgium in the qualifying group. Not because of some silly and unneeded friendly with Liechtenstein.

      Delete
    14. Why is there so much argue about this seedind issue? Did FIFA already confirm that the october's ranking will be the ONLY parameter to seed the teams? I think not.

      Delete
    15. Bosnia vs USA - both teams just made 7 subs... Which is something to be thankful for from the Bosnian perspective, as we dominated the first 45 minutes, leading 2:0, but our brilliant coach made 5 subs at half time and the game, of course, completely fell apart... Lost 2 : 4 :)

      Delete
    16. IMHO, FIFA should always give a team 0 for ranking purposes when they make too many substitutions..problem solved!

      Delete
    17. Vedadpasic - I couldn't watch the match, but the reports I am seeing show 6 subs for both teams.

      Delete
    18. Watching the match, I saw 6 subs each (including 4 at half time for Bosnia). Match ended 4-3.

      Delete
    19. Thanks for the correction guys, you are indeed right! I was actually writing that comment in the 89th minute, when it was 2:4 ;) And somehow I truly believed there to have been 5 B&H subs at half time, but I was watching online here in Croatia, so not that great quality of picture if that's any excuse :=)

      Delete
    20. MV, nogomet,
      6 subs, bravo for Croatia! They proved to be a really strong team, not only on the pitch against Liechtenstein (you clearly missed my intended pun there, MV :))
      So all in all: much ado about nothing. Maybe I have to apologize to you folks :D

      The discussion about the pros and cons of the FIFA-ranking is of not much use now. We have to do with the system as it is, as I don't see it changed soon.

      Daniel,
      indeed, FIFA only communicates about their seeding procedure for the final draw after all qualifying matches have been played. Last time around (WC10) however, the October ranking WAS the only parameter to seed the teams.

      Delete
  3. HOW CAP VERDE REACHES 695 POINTS WITHOUT PLAYING ANY MATCHES IN THIS MONTH?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Their loss against Equatorial Guinea from March was overturned from a loss to a win.

      Delete
  4. IN FIFA OFFICIAL WEBSITE, NO POINTS IN RANKING GAINED FROM THIS WIN, AS WELL AS CAMEROON AND ITS WIN AGAINST TOGO 3-0

    ReplyDelete
  5. IF EGYPT PLAYS AGAINST UGANDA INSEAD OF MAIL
    WHAT IS MAXIMUM POINTS CAN REACH AFTER WINING THIS MATCH?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Uganda (77) is much lower ranked than Mali (32) in August. Therefore Egypt can only reach a maximum 611 pts in September with two wins against Uganda and Guinea (instead of 620 pts with two wins against Mali and Guinea).
      And indeed: please, stop using capitals.

      Delete
  6. Anonymous, could you please stop posting in capital letters, posting like this is considered shouting and that's not a polite way to ask questions :).

    FIFA didn't change the ranking yet, they will next week. I can't answer your other question right now :)

    ReplyDelete
  7. How come Mauritius reaches 177 from 182 as they lost against Zimbabwe in CHAN qualifier? Is it because the other teams are losing places this is why mauritius is going lower? And if Mauritius draws for the second leg or win.. will 177 be lowered more?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. akeel, Mauritius also won last month against Seychelles in the Cosafa Cup (4:0 on July 10th), which delivers 129 match points.
      Because of that they climb from 52 points in July to at least 70 in the August ranking (with a loss today). If Mauritius draws today against Zimbabwe then they will have 82 points (spot 174) and if they win then they will have 106 points (spot 169).

      Delete
    2. they drawed 1-1 with zimbabwe therefore we expect to reach 174 ?

      Delete
    3. the lost 2-1 against Namibia in COSAFA doesnt give us points ?

      Delete
    4. and how come indonesia loses 13 places?

      Delete
    5. 174, exactly !

      A loss doesn't give any match points, but it does count as a match so the total number of points a team accumulates in a year is divided by a bigger number, which results in a lower average.

      Indonesia loses 1 spot (from 168 to 169) and 13 points (from 112 to 99). They lose points, not because of recently played matches but because of devaluation of past results, especially their two WC qualifiers against Turkmenistan (a win and a draw in July 2011) which drop from the second time frame to the third and thus have a lower weight now.

      Delete
  8. Regarding the handling of PSO-wins in the calculation of ranking points:

    Normally a PSO-win delivers 2 points for the PSO-winner and 1 point for the PSO-loser. This is in the situation where there is one match which is decided by PSO (in the knock-out phase of tournaments f.i.).
    In case of a two-legged play-off where after extra time in the second leg a penalty shoot-out is necessary to decide the play-off winner, FIFA uses (as it turns out) the following rules:
    - if both legs have a different winner, then the PSO is not taken into account and the winner of the second leg gets 3 points (and the loser 0 pts);
    - if both legs end in a draw, then apparently the PSO IS taken into account and the PSO-winner gets 2 points and the PSO-loser gets 1 point.

    Example of this last case is the recent CHAN-qualifier play-off Sudan-Burundi: 1st leg (July 7th) BDI-SDN 1:1, 2nd leg (July 28th) SDN-BDI 1:1 (a.e.t.) PSO 3:4. In the calculation of the August ranking Burundi gets 113,52 match points for this second leg, instead of the 56,76 match points in the first leg. SDN gets for each match 68,8 match points.

    ReplyDelete
  9. If Egypt plays friendly game against Mali in 6th september, if Egypt wins, how many points will increase in the ranking?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hossam,

      A win in a Mali friendly on September 6th (not confirmed in the FIFA fixture list at the moment) gives Egypt an extra 11 FIFA points for the September ranking.

      Delete
  10. All, out of curiosity, why would Cape Verde be penalized for the win against Equatorial Guinea on the 8th of June? For the June time period, EqG was ranked 64th, but with the new calculations, Cape Verde gets credit for beating EqG as the 67th ranked team twice from what I can figure.
    I would have thought it would be 67th for the March "win" and 64th (still) for the June win.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Ryan,

    an evident flaw in FIFA's calculation method. Whenever a match result is altered or added at a later moment, FIFA consistently uses the position of the opponent from the latest published ranking at the moment the decision to alter or add is taken.
    Totally illogical with strange side effects as in this case.

    Remember the Baltic Cup 2012? The four matches were first incorporated in the June and July ranking, then excluded (I thought it was about a non FIFA-approved fourth official) and after another three months included again, but then with points calculated as if the matches were played in October instead of June.
    The opponents of Finland for instance were a lot less worth: the draw against Latvia delivered only 82 pts (instead of 126) and the win over Estonia only 393 pts (was 438 in June). Same matches, same results.

    Just plain stupid !

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anybody know what the top 20 Elo ranking and points are currently? The eloratings.net site only has matches thru July 18th.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dorian,

      Here's the current Elo-ranking (top 30):

      1 BRA 2102
      2 ESP 2088
      3 GER 2029
      4 NED 1983
      5 ARG 1980
      6 ENG 1922
      7 ITA 1913
      8 COL 1891
      9 POR 1884
      10 RUS 1853
      11 USA 1841
      12 CRO 1840
      13 ECU 1836
      14 URU 1834
      15 FRA 1831
      16 CHI 1825
      16 CIV 1825
      18 SWE 1824
      19 BEL 1811
      20 SUI 1791
      21 MEX 1783
      22 BIH 1782
      23 GRE 1778
      24 UKR 1775
      25 JPN 1753
      26 PER 1749
      27 CZE 1742
      28 PAN 1726
      29 IRL 1723
      30 ROU 1714

      Delete
  13. Previewing the september FIFA ranking learns me Belgium can reach any place from second place up to sixteenth place. When winning both games, we'd most likely end up 6th or 5th. Nice :)

    ReplyDelete
  14. All,

    with Edgar on vacation here's the preview of the September ranking (top 30) using elo predictions:

    1 Spain 1549
    2 Germany 1288
    3 Argentina 1233
    4 Colombia 1223
    5 Italy 1210
    6 Belgium 1159
    7 Croatia 1155
    8 Netherlands 1111
    9 Brazil 1095
    10 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1067
    11 Russia 1043
    12 Portugal 1029
    13 USA 996
    14 Chile 992
    15 Uruguay 990
    16 Greece 984
    17 Cote d'Ivoire 952
    18 England 947
    19 Ecuador 913
    20 Switzerland 903
    21 Romania 873
    22 Mexico 871
    23 France 859
    24 Ghana 844
    25 Czech Republic 838
    26 Denmark 835
    27 Peru 805
    28 Ukraine 799
    29 Algeria 780
    30 Sweden 771

    So (maybe) new highs for Belgium (6th) and Bosnia-Herzegovina (10th) to expect.

    ReplyDelete
  15. The following predictions were used to compile this preview (part 1):
    2013-08-13 Bangladesh - Pakistan; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Albania - Armenia; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Algeria - Guinea; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Austria - Greece; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Azerbaijan - Malta; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Belarus - Montenegro; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Belgium - France; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Bosnia-Herzegovina - USA; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Chile - Iraq; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Colombia - Serbia; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Dominican Republic - Costa Rica; Friendly; 2
    2013-08-14 Ecuador - Spain; Friendly; 2
    2013-08-14 Egypt - Uganda; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 England - Scotland; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Estonia - Latvia; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Finland - Slovenia; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 FYR Macedonia - Bulgaria; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Gabon - Cape Verde Islands; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Germany - Paraguay; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Honduras - El Salvador; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Hungary - Czech Republic; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Iceland - Faroe Islands; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Indonesia - Philippines; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Italy - Argentina; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Japan - Uruguay; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Kazakhstan - Georgia; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Korea Republic - Peru; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Liechtenstein - Croatia; Friendly; 2
    2013-08-14 Luxembourg - Lithuania; Friendly; 2
    2013-08-14 Mexico - Cote d'Ivoire; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Moldova - Andorra; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Morocco - Burkina Faso; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Northern Ireland - Russia; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-08-14 Panama - Venezuela; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Poland - Denmark; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Portugal - Netherlands; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Romania - Slovakia; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Rwanda - Malawi; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Singapore - Oman; Continental qualifier; 2
    2013-08-14 South Africa - Nigeria; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Sweden - Norway; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Switzerland - Brazil; Friendly; 2
    2013-08-14 Tajikistan - India; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Tunisia - Congo; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Turkey - Ghana; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Ukraine - Israel; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Venezuela - Bolivia; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-14 Wales - Republic of Ireland; Friendly; X
    2013-08-14 Zambia - Senegal; Friendly; X
    2013-08-15 Syria - Jordan; Continental qualifier; X
    2013-08-17 South Africa - Burkina Faso; Friendly; 1
    2013-08-20 Afghanistan - Pakistan; Friendly; 1
    2013-09-01 India - Pakistan; Friendly; 1
    2013-09-01 Nepal - Bangladesh; Friendly; X
    2013-09-02 Afghanistan - Bhutan; Friendly; 1
    2013-09-02 Maldives - Sri Lanka; Friendly; 1
    2013-09-03 Bangladesh - India; Friendly; 2
    2013-09-03 Nepal - Pakistan; Friendly; X
    2013-09-04 Bhutan - Maldives; Friendly; 2
    2013-09-04 Sri Lanka - Afghanistan; Friendly; 2
    2013-09-05 Bangladesh - Pakistan; Friendly; X
    2013-09-05 Nepal - India; Friendly; 2
    2013-09-05 Saudi Arabia - New Zealand; Friendly; X
    2013-09-05 Trinidad and Tobago - United Arab Emirates; Friendly; 2

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. checked for results:
      CORRECT
      2013-08-14 Korea Republic - Peru; Friendly; X
      2013-08-14 Egypt - Uganda; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Finland - Slovenia; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Chile - Iraq; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Sweden - Norway; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Ukraine - Israel; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Colombia - Serbia; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Turkey - Ghana; Friendly; X
      2013-08-14 Liechtenstein - Croatia; Friendly; 2
      2013-08-14 Hungary - Czech Republic; Friendly; X
      2013-08-14 Wales - Republic of Ireland; Friendly; X
      2013-08-14 England - Scotland; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Belgium - France; Friendly; X
      2013-08-14 Portugal - Netherlands; Friendly; X
      2013-08-14 Ecuador - Spain; Friendly; 2
      2013-08-14 Tajikistan - India; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Belarus - Montenegro; Friendly; X
      2013-08-14 Azerbaijan - Malta; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Albania - Armenia; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Iceland - Faroe Islands; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Zambia - Senegal; Friendly; X
      2013-08-14 Tunisia - Congo; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Gabon - Cape Verde Islands; Friendly; X
      2013-08-14 Dominican Republic - Costa Rica; Friendly; 2
      2013-08-14 Singapore - Oman; Continental qualifier; 2

      WRONG (1=>X, X=>2, 1=>2)
      2013-08-14 Japan - Uruguay; Friendly; X => 2
      2013-08-14 Romania - Slovakia; Friendly; 1 => X
      2013-08-14 South Africa - Nigeria; Friendly; X => 2
      2013-08-14 Austria - Greece; Friendly; X => 2
      2013-08-14 Germany - Paraguay; Friendly; 1 => X
      2013-08-14 Italy - Argentina; Friendly; X => 2
      2013-08-14 Estonia - Latvia; Friendly; 1 => X
      2013-08-14 Moldova - Andorra; Friendly; 1 => X
      2013-08-14 Algeria - Guinea; Friendly; 1 => X
      2013-08-14 Rwanda - Malawi; Friendly; 1 => 2
      2013-08-14 Morocco - Burkina Faso; Friendly; X => 2
      2013-08-14 Bosnia-Herzegovina - USA; Friendly; X => 2
      2013-08-14 Venezuela - Bolivia; Friendly; 1 => X

      WRONG (2=>X; X=>1, 2=>1)
      2013-08-14 Switzerland - Brazil; Friendly; 2 => 1
      2013-08-14 Poland - Denmark; Friendly; X => 1
      2013-08-14 FYR Macedonia - Bulgaria; Friendly; X => 1
      2013-08-14 Kazakhstan - Georgia; Friendly; X => 1
      2013-08-14 Luxembourg - Lithuania; Friendly; 2 => 1
      2013-08-14 Indonesia - Philippines; Friendly; X => 1
      2013-08-14 Northern Ireland - Russia; World Cup qualifier; 2 => 1
      2013-08-14 Mexico - Cote d'Ivoire; Friendly; X => 1

      Cancelled:
      2013-08-14 Honduras - El Salvador; Friendly; 1
      2013-08-14 Panama - Venezuela; Friendly; 1 (can't find anything)

      No prediction:
      Libya - Central African Republic

      good job!

      Delete
    2. A good job by elo then :)

      25 out of 46 (54%): slightly above the long time prediction success rate for friendlies (52%).

      Delete
  16. part 2:
    2013-09-06 Afghanistan - Maldives; Friendly; 2
    2013-09-06 Belarus - Kyrgyzstan; Friendly; 1
    2013-09-06 Bosnia-Herzegovina - Slovakia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Chile - Venezuela; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 China PR - Singapore; Friendly; 1
    2013-09-06 Colombia - Ecuador; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Costa Rica - USA; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-06 Czech Republic - Armenia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 England - Moldova; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Estonia - Netherlands; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-06 Finland - Spain; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-06 FYR Macedonia - Wales; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-06 Georgia - France; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-06 Germany - Austria; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Ghana - Zambia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Italy - Bulgaria; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Japan - Guatemala; Friendly; 1
    2013-09-06 Jordan - Uzbekistan; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-06 Kazakhstan - Faroe Islands; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Latvia - Lithuania; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Liechtenstein - Greece; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-06 Malta - Denmark; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-06 Mexico - Honduras; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Myanmar - Hong Kong; Friendly; X
    2013-09-06 Northern Ireland - Portugal; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-06 Norway - Cyprus; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Panama - Jamaica; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Paraguay - Bolivia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Peru - Uruguay; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-06 Poland - Montenegro; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Republic of Ireland - Sweden; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-06 Romania - Hungary; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Russia - Luxembourg; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Scotland - Belgium; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-06 Serbia - Croatia; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-06 Slovenia - Albania; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Sri Lanka - Bhutan; Friendly; 1
    2013-09-06 Switzerland - Iceland; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Turkey - Andorra; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-06 Ukraine - San Marino; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-07 Angola - Liberia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-07 Brazil - Australia; Friendly; 1
    2013-09-07 Burkina Faso - Gabon; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-07 Central African Republic - Ethiopia; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-07 Cote d'Ivoire - Morocco; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-07 Gambia - Tanzania; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-07 Israel - Azerbaijan; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-07 Kenya - Namibia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-07 Niger - Congo; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-07 Nigeria - Malawi; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-07 Senegal - Uganda; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-07 Sierra Leone - Equatorial Guinea; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-07 South Africa - Botswana; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-07 Tunisia - Cape Verde Islands; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-08 Benin - Rwanda; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-08 Cameroon - Libya; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-08 Sudan - Lesotho; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-08 Togo - Congo DR; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-08 Zimbabwe - Mozambique; World Cup qualifier; 1

    ReplyDelete
  17. and part 3:
    2013-09-10 Algeria - Mali; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-10 Andorra - Netherlands; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 Armenia - Denmark; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 Austria - Republic of Ireland; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-10 Belarus - France; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 Bolivia - Ecuador; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 Brazil - Portugal; Friendly; 1
    2013-09-10 China PR - Malaysia; Friendly; 1
    2013-09-10 Cyprus - Slovenia; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 Egypt - Guinea; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-10 Faroe Islands - Germany; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 FYR Macedonia - Scotland; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-10 Georgia - Finland; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-10 Greece - Latvia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-10 Honduras - Panama; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-10 Hong Kong - Singapore; Friendly; X
    2013-09-10 Hungary - Estonia; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-10 Iceland - Albania; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-10 Italy - Czech Republic; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-10 Jamaica - Costa Rica; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 Japan - Ghana; Friendly; 1
    2013-09-10 Kazakhstan - Sweden; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 Lithuania - Liechtenstein; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-10 Luxembourg - Northern Ireland; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 Malta - Bulgaria; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 Norway - Switzerland; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-10 Paraguay - Argentina; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 Romania - Turkey; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-10 Russia - Israel; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-10 San Marino - Poland; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 Slovakia - Bosnia-Herzegovina; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2013-09-10 Ukraine - England; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-10 Uruguay - Colombia; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-10 USA - Mexico; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-10 Uzbekistan - Jordan; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2013-09-10 Venezuela - Peru; World Cup qualifier; X
    2013-09-10 Wales - Serbia; World Cup qualifier; X

    ReplyDelete
  18. Sorry for overload

    What is the refrence if both african teams have the same points in September ranking?
    ex Cameroon & EGYPT will have 611 points if
    1- Cameroon beats Libya
    2- Egypt beats Uganda& Guinea
    3- Congo qualify to the last round
    4- TUNISIA draw with Cap verde

    who will be seeded & unseeded?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hossam,

      if two or more teams have the same number of FIFA points, then I think the unrounded number of points will be decisive. The FIFA points are a sum of 4 weighted time frame averages, so it would be highly unlikely to have the same unrounded number of points also.

      By the way, Cameroon lost their CHAN qualifier today against Gabon, that's true. But they will have another chance to qualify in a second round play-off against Congo DR. These two matches should be played before September 1st (according to CAF: http://www.cafonline.com/competition/african-nations-championship_2011/news/17692-chan-tourne-dinspection-de-la-caf-en-afrique-du-sud.html). With two wins in this play-off (plus a win against Libya) Cameroon can only reach 595 points in the September ranking.

      Anyway it will be a very close fight in the ranking between Tunisia, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Egypt. Exciting !

      Delete
  19. How can Egypt increase its ranking points as much as possible
    to reach 645 points?
    Can you suggest 2 opponents to play against them?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hassan, since Egypt already plays on 14/08 and 10/09, in reality there's only 06/09 left to play. On other days, Egypt wouldn't have Ahmed Hegazy, Ahmed Samir farag, Hossam Ghaly, Adam El-Abd, Mohamed El-Nenny , Koka and Mohamed Salah at their disposal. They'd have to play games for their club, which competitions already started.

    The most ranking points can be obtained on 06/09 by winning from Argentina, which would result in 546,84 "game" points . That would lead to approx. 661 pts FIFA Ranking (margin of a few points, still have to adapt my ranking method), if a quick calculation is correct. In order to reach 645 points, they'd have to get at least 350 points, which means they'd at least have to win that game and they'd have to win it vs a European/SouthAmericanteam ranked <75 or a African/Oceanian/Asian team ranked <65. The only teams which are available afaik are Argentina,
    Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Algeria, Republic of Ireland, Iran, Korea Republic and New Zealand.

    Arranging such a meeting in a could of weeks is quite hard, especially since early september is a busy period.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hossam, Jeroen,

      if Egypt plays an extra friendly against Argentina on Sept 6th and wins all three planned matches they will have only 630 pts in September.

      So you need another high ranked opponent, but as Jeroen said there's no valid time slot anymore.
      And beware, a loss against Argentina (not impossible, as an understatement) drops Egypt to 588 points instead of the 611 without the extra friendly (always assuming two wins against Uganda and Guinea).

      Delete
  21. Replies
    1. Jeroen,

      here's some information about match points to improve your calculations. It's the calculation for Egypt for the September ranking with the extra friendly against ARG included:

      1 10-9-2013 GUI 851.4
      1 6-9-2013 ARG 546.84
      1 14-8-2013 UGA 317.34
      1 16-6-2013 MOZ 625.650
      1 9-6-2013 ZIM 632.100
      1 26-3-2013 ZIM 645.000
      1 7-3-2013 QAT 0.000
      1 6-2-2013 CHI 0.000
      1 14-1-2013 CIV 0.000
      1 10-1-2013 GHA 0.000
      1 14-11-2012 GEO 125.550
      1 16-10-2012 TUN 0.000
      1 12-10-2012 CGO 273.480
      2 15-8-2012 OMA 92.880
      2 30-6-2012 CTA 230.050
      2 15-6-2012 CTA 0.000
      2 10-6-2012 GUI 857.850
      2 1-6-2012 MOZ 580.500
      2 22-5-2012 TOG 288.960
      2 20-5-2012 CMR 350.880
      2 11-5-2012 LIB 183.180
      2 17-4-2012 IRQ 111.800
      2 15-4-2012 MTN 129.000
      2 12-4-2012 NGA 361.200
      2 31-3-2012 CHA 227.040
      2 29-3-2012 UGA 288.960
      2 2-3-2012 COD 69.660
      2 29-2-2012 NIG 229.620
      2 27-2-2012 KEN 198.660
      2 14-11-2011 BRA 0.000
      2 8-10-2011 NIG 690.150
      3 3-9-2011 SLE 0.000
      3 5-6-2011 RSA 348.300
      3 26-3-2011 RSA 0.000
      3 17-1-2011 UGA 301.860
      3 14-1-2011 KEN 190.920
      3 11-1-2011 BDI 154.800
      3 8-1-2011 UGA 309.600
      3 5-1-2011 TAN 216.720
      3 16-12-2010 QAT 0.000
      3 17-11-2010 AUS 464.400
      3 10-10-2010 NIG 0.000
      4 5-9-2010 SLE 135.450
      4 11-8-2010 COD 198.660
      4 3-3-2010 ENG 0.000
      4 31-1-2010 GHA 1269.900
      4 28-1-2010 ALG 1331.100
      4 25-1-2010 CMR 1445.850
      4 20-1-2010 BEN 1078.650
      4 16-1-2010 MOZ 979.200
      4 12-1-2010 NGA 1361.700
      4 4-1-2010 MLI 390.150
      4 29-12-2009 MWI 85.850
      4 18-11-2009 ALG 0.000
      4 14-11-2009 ALG 1090.125
      4 5-11-2009 TAN 257.550
      4 10-10-2009 ZAM 758.625
      4 2-10-2009 MRI 127.500

      tf pts MP avg_pts weight w_avg
      1 04017.360 13 309.03 1.0 309.03
      2 04890.390 18 271.69 0.5 135.84
      3 01986.600 11 180.60 0.3 054.18
      4 10510.310 16 656.89 0.2 131.38
      EGY 630.43 pts


      Delete
    2. Ed, my error was simply that i had used the wrong month, i simulated the oktober ranking ;). But i've just adjusted my excel, can you take a look (i'll post a link in the excel-post from edgar)?

      Delete
  22. How many points can Egypt gains from win against Mali friendly at 6th september?

    If Egypt plays another friendly game against Borkina Faso, How many points can Egypt gains from win?

    Sorry for overload

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hossam,

      with 4 wins in matches against Uganda (fr), Mali (fr), Burkina Faso (fr) and Guinea (WCQ) Egypt can reach a maximum 628 points.
      Believe me, there is no way Egypt can get from 611 points (wins over UGA and GUI) to at least 645 points in September, besides playing (and winning !) two or three friendlies against really top-ranked countries which is not a feasible possibility in such a short period of time.

      Delete
    2. Thank you veru much and sorry again for overload

      Delete
    3. Hossam,

      you're welcome and no problem.

      Egypt has just slipped a bit too far down the ranking with two consecutive no-shows at the CAN to be seeded now.
      But somehow I expect them to be in Brazil next year. Egypt can take on any seeded opponent and give them at least a run for their money.

      Delete
  23. Cameroon will play against DR CONGO in play- off in CHAN qualification,IN FIFA website if wins both matches followed by another win against Libya, theie points will be 627 in september ranking.
    is it true?
    i think it will be 595

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hossam,

    that FIFA prognosis tool gives not always reliable prognosis. Indeed, with three wins Cameroon ends at 595 points in September:

    cycle date opponent pts
    4 10-10-2009 TOG 822.375
    4 14-10-2009 ANG 91.800
    4 14-11-2009 MAR 873.375
    4 9-1-2010 KEN 260.100
    4 13-1-2010 GAB 0.000
    4 17-1-2010 ZAM 887.400
    4 21-1-2010 TUN 374.850
    4 25-1-2010 EGY 0.000
    4 3-3-2010 ITA 181.300
    4 25-5-2010 GEO 74.000
    4 29-5-2010 SVK 153.550
    4 1-6-2010 POR 0.000
    4 5-6-2010 SRB 0.000
    4 14-6-2010 JPN 0.000
    4 19-6-2010 DEN 0.000
    4 24-6-2010 NED 0.000
    4 11-8-2010 POL 401.760
    4 4-9-2010 MRI 322.500
    3 9-10-2010 COD 146.200
    3 9-2-2011 MKD 337.590
    3 26-3-2011 SEN 0.000
    3 4-6-2011 SEN 344.000
    3 7-6-2011 RUS 169.260
    3 3-9-2011 MRI 322.500
    2 7-10-2011 COD 457.950
    2 11-10-2011 EQG 43.000
    2 11-11-2011 SDN 252.840
    2 13-11-2011 MAR 247.680
    2 14-12-2011 ANG 99.760
    2 29-2-2012 GNB 322.500
    2 20-5-2012 EGY 0.000
    2 2-6-2012 COD 490.200
    2 10-6-2012 LBY 0.000
    2 16-6-2012 GNB 322.500
    2 8-9-2012 CPV 0.000
    1 14-10-2012 CPV 961.050
    1 16-10-2012 COL 0.000
    1 14-11-2012 ALB 123.690
    1 6-2-2013 TAN 0.000
    1 23-3-2013 TOG 857.850
    1 2-6-2013 UKR 151.590
    1 9-6-2013 TOG 825.600
    1 16-6-2013 COD 260.150
    1 28-7-2013 GAB 307.020
    1 10-8-2013 GAB 0.000
    1 17-8-2013 COD 291.540
    1 24-8-2013 COD 291.540
    1 8-9-2013 LBY 844.950

    tf pts MP avg_pts weight w_avg
    1 4914.980 13 378.08 1.0 378.08
    2 2236.430 11 203.31 0.5 101.66
    3 1319.550 06 219.93 0.3 065.98
    4 4443.010 18 246.83 0.2 049.37
    CMR 595.08

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The tool has skipped the 1:0 loss against Gabon on August 10th. Sloppy !

      Delete
  25. The latest update for the top 20 of the predicted October ranking after the matches of yesterday:

    1 Spain 1547
    2 Germany 1315
    3 Colombia 1305
    4 Argentina 1234
    5 Italy 1218
    6 Croatia 1199
    7 Netherlands 1175
    8 Belgium 1116
    8 Switzerland 1116
    10 Portugal 1090
    11 England 1082
    12 Brazil 1080
    13 Chile 1046
    14 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1041
    15 USA 1020
    16 Uruguay 985
    17 Greece 963
    18 Cote d'Ivoire 926
    19 France 922
    20 Mexico 921

    Wow, way to go Switzerland ! With their unexpected win over Brazil they are suddenly a contender for a seeded spot. The Netherlands held off the threat of Portugal (for now).

    The latest update for the predicted September ranking for CAF-countries that could still qualify for the play-offs:

    1 Cote d'Ivoire 941
    2 Ghana 844
    3 Algeria 762
    4 Nigeria 709
    5 Cape Verde 660
    6 Tunisia 643
    7 Burkina Faso 628
    8 Egypt 611
    9 Cameroon 580
    10 South Africa 544
    11 Zambia 533
    12 Uganda 476
    13 Libya 472
    14 Senegal 468
    15 Gabon 443
    16 Congo 368
    17 Ethiopia 359
    18 Botswana 337
    19 Malawi 269

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ed,
      This might have been asked before, but do you make GD predictions in your simulations for ELO updates or do you assume a some number for the GD across all matches?

      Delete
    2. Ryan,
      For calculating a future FIFA-ranking I don't need GD-predictions, only a prediction about win/draw/loss. So I use the elo win expectancy in each match to predict a home team win (1:0), a draw (0:0) or a home team loss (0:1).

      If teams, for instance in a WC qualifying group, are tied on points after all the matches are played/predicted and I want to predict which team is directly qualified and which team goes to the play-offs, then I can't use the resulting predicted GD of course. To determine who goes where I use the GD until now combined with the predicted results. If that is not conclusive enough, then I arbitrarily use the elo rating of the teams involved.
      It is, after all, only a prediction, not a matter of life and death :)

      Delete
    3. Oh, I see now I interpreted your question the wrong way. Anyway, the elo-rating (which is of course influenced by the GD of a match) is adjusted, based on the mentioned predicted results. I choose to use these because in my database of NT-matches (> 36.000 matches) they are the most common result types for a home-win, a draw and a home-loss.

      Delete
  26. The draw against Holland left Portugal in a difficult situation. If they don't defeat Brazil they will almost surely not be in the top 7, since their other matches are against low ranked teams.

    ReplyDelete
  27. The Netherlands has to be very careful. They have no margin for error.
    With the predicted 4 wins (1175 points) they should end up on a seeded spot. One draw (f.i. away against Turkey: 1114 points) will spoil everything. Then all of Croatia, Belgium, Portugal and Switzerland could overtake them in the October ranking.

    The Netherlands have the possibility to qualify in the next nt-window with two away-wins against Estonia and Andorra. Recent history shows that they tend to become less focused once qualified and that opponents in the last nt-window could profit. And that could just cost them their seeding.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. well, in 2010 they won every single match in the qualifying and in 2012 they only lost 1 match (against Sweden, the 2nd strongest side in the group at that time).

      This Turkey (even at home) does not seem to offer much danger. I believe that the Netherlands will win all their matches, but I am not so sure about Portugal and, especially Croatia and Belgium.

      I am wondering if Uruguay still gets a place in the top 8 with wins both against Colombia and Argentina...

      Delete
    2. This is my October ranking in the (impossible) scenario ALL teams win ALL their remaining games (under the condition opponents rankings are based on current ranking, that's why i have a slightly other result for the Netherlands).

      1 Spain 1553
      2 Colombia 1381
      3 Argentina 1372
      4 Germany 1316
      5 Croatia 1268
      6 Belgium 1255
      7 Uruguay 1249
      8 Italy 1224
      9 Switzerland 1202
      10 Netherlands 1181
      11 Ecuador 1176
      12 Chile 1171
      13 England 1146
      14 Portugal 1142

      Since a Belgian AND Croatian clean sweep is impossible (H2H-game), Uruguay are even guaranteed a 6-th place if they win all remaining games.

      Delete
  28. Thanks Ed, Alex, Ryan and Jeroen.

    ReplyDelete
  29. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  30. If Mauritius draw or win tomorrow against Qatar in the international Friendly , will we go down more being 174 fifa?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. akeel, Mauritius drops with their 0:3 loss to Qatar 20 FIFA points and probably 3 places to spot 177 in September.

      Delete