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Saturday, November 27, 2021

World Cup qualification simulations (27 November 2021)

The November window has been played. The decisions in the UEFA and CAF qualification groups are known now. Furthermore, yesterday the draw for the UEFA play-offs and the pairing of confederations in the interconfederational play-offs was made.

In two days time also the draw for the OFC qualification groups will be made. It seems the complete qualification for Oceania will be staged in Qatar in the March 2022 window.

Only the draw date for the CAF play-offs, said to be revealed last Thursday, is not made public yet. Now also the date of January 26th (in the middle of AFCON 2022) circulates. This date is important because it indicates which FIFA ranking will be used to seed the ten remaining teams. By the way, it's complete nonsense to compile a ranking while in the midst of a continental final tournament.

Just like in 2018 WC qualification CAF can't perform a straightforward final round draw with a set draw date and published procedures in advance. The powers that be in Africa still have a firm grasp on CAF decisions and are obviously still able to manipulate such decisions for their own good. This time it seems Egypt tries to get seeded by all means, not to much avail as you will read further on. 

Also there are ongoing investigations into possible match-fixing against South Africa (vs. Ghana) and into possible substitution rule violation against Benin (vs. Congo DR) on the last match day.  So I fear the last word isn't said about this at all. Anyway, sigh...


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The simulations include all scheduled World Cup qualifiers (including the AFC number 5 PO and the IPO's in June 2022), the AFCON 2021 and all currently scheduled friendlies (including the Arab Cup).


UEFA


The ten group winners are Serbia, Spain, Switzerland, France, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Croatia, England and Germany.

The play-offs were drawn yesterday. All matches will be one-off affairs with the semi finals played on March 24th and the finals on March 29th:


Path A:

Scotland - Ukraine

Wales - Austria

The winner of Wales/Austria plays the path A final at home.

Path B:

Russia - Poland

Sweden - Czech Republic

The winner of Russia/Poland plays the path B final at home.

Path C:

Italy - North Macedonia

Portugal - Turkey

The winner of Portugal/Turkey plays the path C final at home.


So the current or the previous UEFA EURO champion won't be present in Qatar. Indeed this draw has proven what kind of minefield these play-offs can be. One should try their hardest to avoid them.


The probability to win a play-off semi-final. In the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD8).


team

win SF

diff

Italy

97,53

75,74

Portugal

92,64

81,84

Wales

85,01

37,80

Russia

75,65

38,11

Sweden

74,89

29,72

Scotland

68,40

37,25

Ukraine

31,60

21,79

Czech Republic

25,11

-10,51

Poland

24,35

-48,32

Austria

14,99

0,66

Turkey

7,36

-9,79

North Macedonia

2,47

1,57

Serbia

0,00

-70,34

Switzerland

0,00

-67,05

Spain

0,00

-40,08

Croatia

0,00

-28,60

Norway

0,00

-17,96

Romania

0,00

-9,99

Netherlands

0,00

-7,96

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,00

-5,21

Finland

0,00

-3,44

Greece

0,00

-3,38

Israel

0,00

-0,51

England

0,00

-0,44

Armenia

0,00

-0,38

Albania

0,00

-0,23

Belgium

0,00

-0,18

France

0,00

-0,09

Iceland

0,00

-0,02



The probability to win a play-off final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for a final. Also in the last column the difference in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD8).


team

win F

diff

Wales

70,03

[82,38]

45,72

Portugal

66,74

[72,04]

59,10

Russia

51,26

[67,76]

36,05

Italy

31,25

[32,04]

14,18

Sweden

21,73

[29,02]

-2,89

Poland

17,38

[71,38]

-13,69

Austria

11,27

[75,18]

6,32

Scotland

10,89

[15,92]

1,16

Czech Republic

9,63

[38,35]

-8,24

Ukraine

7,81

[24,72]

2,92

Turkey

1,84

[25,00]

-4,37

North Macedonia

0,17

[6,88]

0,03

Switzerland

0,00

[0,00]

-41,16

Serbia

0,00

[0,00]

-30,72

Spain

0,00

[0,00]

-30,72

Croatia

0,00

[0,00]

-13,73

Norway

0,00

[0,00]

-7,18

Netherlands

0,00

[0,00]

-4,60

Romania

0,00

[0,00]

-3,06

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,00

[0,00]

-1,84

Finland

0,00

[0,00]

-1,33

Greece

0,00

[0,00]

-1,14

England

0,00

[0,00]

-0,29

Israel

0,00

[0,00]

-0,15

Belgium

0,00

[0,00]

-0,15

Armenia

0,00

[0,00]

-0,10

France

0,00

[0,00]

-0,07

Albania

0,00

[0,00]

-0,04

Iceland

0,00

[0,00]

-0,01



Finally the probability to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar ('Qtot'), composed of the probabilities to become a group winner ('nr1') and to win a play-off ('PO'). Also in the last column the difference in Qtot in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD8).


team

nr1

PO

Qtot

diff

Denmark

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Germany

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Belgium

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,03

France

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,06

England

100,00

0,00

100,00

0,23

Netherlands

100,00

0,00

100,00

8,20

Spain

100,00

0,00

100,00

15,18

Croatia

100,00

0,00

100,00

33,34

Switzerland

100,00

0,00

100,00

35,51

Serbia

100,00

0,00

100,00

57,38

Wales

0,00

70,03

70,03

45,54

Portugal

0,00

66,74

66,74

-29,00

Russia

0,00

51,26

51,26

-11,02

Italy

0,00

31,25

31,25

-62,49

Sweden

0,00

21,73

21,73

-48,79

Poland

0,00

17,38

17,38

-14,21

Austria

0,00

11,27

11,27

6,32

Scotland

0,00

10,89

10,89

1,16

Czech Republic

0,00

9,63

9,63

-8,24

Ukraine

0,00

7,81

7,81

2,91

Turkey

0,00

1,84

1,84

-4,93

North Macedonia

0,00

0,17

0,17

0,03

Norway

0,00

0,00

0,00

-19,42

Romania

0,00

0,00

0,00

-3,06

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,00

0,00

0,00

-1,88

Finland

0,00

0,00

0,00

-1,41

Greece

0,00

0,00

0,00

-1,14

Israel

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,15

Armenia

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,10

Albania

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,04

Iceland

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,01



CAF


The ten group winners are Algeria, Tunisia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Mali, Egypt, Ghana, Senegal, Morocco and Congo DR. These teams will be drawn in 5 play-offs with the winner qualifying for Qatar. In the draw the top 5 teams in the FIFA ranking will be seeded and thus can't be drawn against each other. The FIFA ranking to use will depend on when the draw is conducted. The current November ranking shows that Senegal, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and Nigeria would be seeded. I've made an extra set of simulations to research the effect of using the ranking of January 26th as the seeding ranking. The round of 16 knock-out matches in the AFCON 2022 in Cameroon are just played then.

So, first the qualification for the play-off round with seeding based on the November 2021 ranking. Below you see the probabilities to qualify as seeded or unseeded, the probability to be seeded given that a team is a group winner and the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. Also in the last column the difference in total qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD4).

team

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

total

diff Total

Senegal

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

0,00

Morocco

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

0,00

Tunisia

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

2,63

Algeria

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

9,71

Nigeria

100,00

0,00

100,00

100,00

11,74

Egypt

0,00

100,00

0,00

100,00

1,59

Mali

0,00

100,00

0,00

100,00

15,28

Ghana

0,00

100,00

0,00

100,00

53,51

Cameroon

0,00

100,00

0,00

100,00

69,52

Congo DR

0,00

100,00

0,00

100,00

75,28

Cote d'Ivoire

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-69,52

South Africa

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-53,51

Benin

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-43,08

Tanzania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-31,55

Uganda

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-15,28

Cape Verde Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-11,72

Burkina Faso

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-9,71

Equatorial Guinea

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,62

Gabon

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,88

Libya

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,71

Madagascar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,65

Central African Republic

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,02

Zambia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,01



If based on the ranking after January 26th:

team

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

total

diff Total

Senegal

99,99

0,01

99,99

100,00

0,00

Morocco

98,40

1,60

98,40

100,00

0,00

Algeria

95,13

4,87

95,13

100,00

9,71

Tunisia

90,32

9,68

90,32

100,00

2,63

Nigeria

60,33

39,67

60,33

100,00

11,74

Egypt

26,22

73,78

26,22

100,00

1,59

Cameroon

19,19

80,81

19,19

100,00

69,52

Ghana

5,36

94,64

5,36

100,00

53,51

Mali

5,06

94,94

5,06

100,00

15,28

Congo DR

0,00

100,00

0,00

100,00

75,28

Cote d'Ivoire

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-69,52

South Africa

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-53,51

Benin

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-43,08

Tanzania

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-31,55

Uganda

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-15,28

Cape Verde Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-11,72

Burkina Faso

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-9,71

Equatorial Guinea

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-2,62

Gabon

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,88

Libya

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,71

Madagascar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,65

Central African Republic

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,02

Zambia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,01



It could help Egypt a bit, all this, but their %seeded will be no higher than 26%.

I've simulated the play-off round by determining the 5 seeds and 5 unseeds in each simulation and perform a random draw to generate the 5 play-off pairings (based on the November ranking). Also which team in each pairing plays home in the first leg is result of a random draw.

The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for round 3) and in the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD4):

team

qualify

diff Q

Algeria

70,05

4,48

Morocco

66,51

-0,46

Senegal

63,60

-3,90

Nigeria

56,20

3,53

Tunisia

56,03

-4,70

Egypt

41,97

-0,51

Cameroon

40,72

28,66

Mali

39,96

9,16

Ghana

38,08

19,23

Congo DR

26,88

20,84

Cote d'Ivoire

0,00

-32,79

South Africa

0,00

-17,97

Benin

0,00

-9,41

Tanzania

0,00

-4,78

Uganda

0,00

-3,93

Burkina Faso

0,00

-3,62

Cape Verde Islands

0,00

-2,76

Equatorial Guinea

0,00

-0,60

Gabon

0,00

-0,23

Madagascar

0,00

-0,12

Libya

0,00

-0,11

Central African Republic

0,00

-0,01



OFC


Until the qualification schedule for OFC is drawn and can be properly simulated I assume in these simulations that New Zealand will be their qualifier for the IPO.


CONMEBOL


The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar as number one to four in the group or to qualify as group number 5 for the interconfederational play-off against Asia's number 5 in June 2022. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD12):


team

WC

diff

IPO

diff

Brazil

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Argentina

100,00

0,11

0,00

-0,11

Ecuador

93,58

52,74

5,94

-23,81

Colombia

48,05

-18,79

26,82

5,18

Peru

26,03

18,39

22,62

12,34

Uruguay

25,28

-45,30

27,35

10,62

Chile

5,34

-5,11

12,27

-2,27

Bolivia

1,50

0,44

3,83

1,93

Paraguay

0,22

-2,40

1,17

-3,67

Venezuela

0,00

-0,08

0,00

-0,21



CONCACAF


The probabilities to qualify for the World Cup as number one to three in the group or to qualify as group number 4 for the interconfederational play-off against New Zealand in June 2022. Also columns are given with the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD6):

team

WC

diff

IPO

diff

USA

93,29

1,85

6,36

-0,25

Mexico

93,25

-5,76

5,93

5,09

Canada

89,09

9,39

9,64

-3,69

Panama

21,36

6,23

57,49

22,00

Costa Rica

1,92

-5,99

11,33

-7,52

Jamaica

1,09

-4,06

8,94

-7,22

El Salvador

0,00

-1,17

0,25

-4,84

Honduras

0,00

-0,49

0,06

-3,57



AFC


The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Iran

79,61

20,38

0,01

0,00

0,00

0,00

Korea Republic

20,39

79,36

0,24

0,01

0,00

0,00

United Arab Emirates

0,00

0,19

37,19

35,04

19,96

7,62

Iraq

0,00

0,00

35,42

23,91

26,51

14,16

Lebanon

0,00

0,07

19,74

28,61

32,94

18,64

Syria

0,00

0,00

7,40

12,43

20,59

59,58

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Saudi Arabia

58,02

27,77

13,49

0,72

0,00

0,00

Japan

27,97

45,44

25,63

0,93

0,03

0,00

Australia

13,97

26,10

54,23

5,66

0,04

0,00

Oman

0,04

0,67

6,16

68,19

24,60

0,34

China PR

0,00

0,02

0,49

24,32

69,82

5,35

Vietnam

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,18

5,51

94,31



To qualify for the 5th place play-off and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off. Also columns are given with the difference in probability in percentage-points, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD4):

team

qualify

diff Q

win

diff win

Australia

54,23

38,75

33,49

[61,76]

24,73

United Arab Emirates

37,19

26,72

14,63

[39,34]

9,52

Iraq

35,42

-7,39

19,64

[55,45]

-8,13

Japan

25,63

-15,22

16,44

[64,14]

-7,33

Lebanon

19,74

-14,70

5,16

[26,14]

-5,77

Saudi Arabia

13,49

-10,47

5,46

[40,47]

-4,11

Syria

7,40

2,16

2,63

[35,54]

0,29

Oman

6,16

-10,84

2,26

[36,69]

-3,20

China PR

0,49

-1,98

0,10

[20,41]

-0,62

Korea Republic

0,24

-6,16

0,18

[75,00]

-4,80

Iran

0,01

-0,63

0,01

[100,00]

-0,51

Vietnam

0,00

-0,24

0,00

[00,00]

-0,07



To qualify for the World Cup, composed of the chance to qualify as number one or two in the group (column Nr1-2) or via the route via the AFC number 5 play-off plus IPO against the CONMEBOL number 5 (column IPO). In the final column the difference in qualification probability in percentage-points is given, compared to the previous simulations in October (after MD4):

team

Qtot

Nr1-2

IPO

diff Q

Iran

99,99

99,99

0,00

0,72

Korea Republic

99,78

99,75

0,03

7,80

Saudi Arabia

86,74

85,79

0,95

17,88

Japan

77,18

73,41

3,77

35,33

Australia

47,66

40,07

7,59

-32,68

Iraq

2,73

0,00

2,73

-1,46

United Arab Emirates

1,82

0,19

1,63

0,91

Oman

1,03

0,71

0,32

-7,46

Lebanon

0,35

0,07

0,28

-3,09

Syria

0,23

0,00

0,23

0,02

China PR

0,02

0,02

0,00

-0,43

Vietnam

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,01



Interconfederational play-offs


To qualify for an IPO and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off. Once again, in this simulation New Zealand is the assumed OFC qualifier in the IPO's.

team

IPO

Win IPO

Panama

57,49

42,38

[73,72]

New Zealand

100,00

23,38

[23,38]

Uruguay

27,35

23,03

[84,20]

Colombia

26,82

22,76

[84,86]

Peru

22,62

18,37

[81,21]

Chile

12,27

9,91

[80,77]

Costa Rica

11,33

8,71

[76,88]

Canada

9,64

7,78

[80,71]

Australia

33,49

7,59

[22,66]

Jamaica

8,94

6,64

[74,27]

USA

6,36

5,68

[89,31]

Mexico

5,93

5,19

[87,52]

Ecuador

5,94

4,59

[77,27]

Japan

16,44

3,77

[22,93]

Bolivia

3,83

2,92

[76,24]

Iraq

19,64

2,73

[13,90]

United Arab Emirates

14,63

1,63

[11,14]

Saudi Arabia

5,46

0,95

[17,40]

Paraguay

1,17

0,89

[76,07]

Oman

2,26

0,32

[14,16]

Lebanon

5,16

0,28

[05,43]

Syria

2,63

0,23

[08,75]

El Salvador

0,25

0,19

[76,00]

Honduras

0,06

0,05

[83,33]

Korea Republic

0,18

0,03

[16,67]

China PR

0,10

0,00

[00,00]

Iran

0,01

0,00

[00,00]

Brazil

0,00

0,00

[00,00]

Argentina

0,00

0,00

[00,00]

Venezuela

0,00

0,00

[00,00]

Vietnam

0,00

0,00

[00,00]



Pots for the final draw


These pots are based on the FIFA ranking after the March 2022 window when 30 participants are known. Pot 1 contains Qatar and the 7 top ranked participants, pot 2 contains the next 8 highest ranked participants, etc. The teams are ordered by ascending weighted average pot distribution. In the first column the probability to qualify for the World Cup (now including IPO's) is given:

team

WC

pot1

pot2

pot3

pot4

Qatar

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Brazil

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Belgium

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

France

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

England

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Argentina

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Spain

100,00

100,00

0

0

0

Portugal

66,74

56,53

10,21

0

0

----------------------------

Denmark

100,00

0,65

99,35

0

0

Mexico

98,44

6,39

89,05

3,00

0

Germany

100,00

0

100,00

0

0

Netherlands

100,00

0

100,00

0

0

Switzerland

100,00

0

100,00

0

0

USA

98,97

5,18

90,32

3,47

0

Croatia

100,00

0

92,30

7,70

0

Iran

99,99

0

0,76

98,22

1,01

----------------------------

Serbia

100,00

0

0

98,38

1,62

Italy

31,25

31,25

0

0

0

Colombia

70,81

0

47,91

22,90

0

Korea Republic

99,78

0

0

39,02

60,76

Japan

77,18

0

0,04

70,58

6,56

Ecuador

98,17

0

0

0,55

97,62

Canada

96,87

0

0

4,40

92,47

Wales

70,03

0

8,55

61,48

0

----------------------------

Senegal

63,60

0

16,16

45,95

1,49

Algeria

70,05

0

3,86

47,75

18,44

Morocco

66,51

0

6,82

49,37

10,32

Saudi Arabia

86,74

0

0

0,19

86,55

Uruguay

48,31

0

26,52

21,79

0

Tunisia

56,03

0

1,13

30,34

24,56

Panama

63,74

0

0

0

63,74

Nigeria

56,20

0

0,04

14,93

41,23

Peru

44,40

0

0,76

43,47

0,17

Russia

51,26

0

0

26,17

25,09

Australia

47,66

0

0

10,05

37,61

Egypt

41,97

0

0,01

7,32

34,64

Cameroon

40,72

0

0

11,57

29,15

Mali

39,96

0

0

2,43

37,53

Ghana

38,08

0

0

2,29

35,79

Sweden

21,73

0

6,01

15,72

0

Congo DR

26,88

0

0

0

26,88

New Zealand

23,38

0

0

0

23,38

Poland

17,38

0

0

17,37

0,01

Chile

15,25

0

0,20

15,00

0,05

Austria

11,27

0

0

10,05

1,22

Czech Republic

9,63

0

0

7,94

1,69

Scotland

10,89

0

0

1,83

9,06

Costa Rica

10,63

0

0

0,11

10,52

Ukraine

7,81

0

0

7,80

0,01

Jamaica

7,73

0

0

0

7,73

Bolivia

4,42

0

0

0

4,42

Iraq

2,73

0

0

0

2,73

Turkey

1,84

0

0

0,70

1,14

United Arab Emirates

1,82

0

0

0

1,82

Paraguay

1,11

0

0

0,16

0,95

Oman

1,03

0

0

0

1,03

Lebanon

0,35

0

0

0

0,35

Syria

0,23

0

0

0

0,23

El Salvador

0,19

0

0

0

0,19

North Macedonia

0,17

0

0

0

0,17

Honduras

0,05

0

0

0

0,05

China PR

0,02

0

0

0

0,02



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

20 comments:

  1. In CAF playoffs, it seems thats the seeded teams will play the first leg away.

    ReplyDelete
  2. What a farce with CAF! The Africa play-off draw could just as easily have been made yesterday along with UEFA's and the IPO.

    ReplyDelete
  3. C'est dommage que la pression de certains pays comme l'Égypte pour leurs propres intérêts font subir a toutes les autres équipes plus de pression en remportant le tirage au sort jusqu'à fin janvier 2022, dans l'espoir que l'Égypte gagne le Nigeria en couoe d'Afrique et la dépassée dans le classement
    C'est très malsain de la part de l'Égypte et de tous ceux qui aident dans cette combine

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oui, tu as tout a fait raison, le premier perdant c'est le Nigeria puisque elle va pas jouer en couoe Arabe qui est prise en compte dans le classement fifa, et qui va permettre a l'Égypte de gagner des points supplémentaires si elle va loin dans cette coupe arabe, je trouve ca injuste

      Delete
    2. الا تفهم ان هناك شكاوي من بنين علي الكنغو ومن جنوب افريقيا علي غانا؟
      الا يعد ذلك سببا كافيا لتأجيل القرعة؟
      ربما تستفيد مصر ولكن هل عندك علم وليس شك ان مصر هي من سعت للتأجيل؟
      وساعيدها عليك بلغتك
      Ne comprenez-vous pas qu'il y a des plaintes du Bénin contre le Congo et de l'Afrique du Sud contre le Ghana ?
      N'est-ce pas une raison suffisante pour reporter la loterie ?
      L'Egypte peut en bénéficier, mais savez-vous et n'avez aucun doute que c'est l'Egypte qui a cherché à retarder ?

      Delete
    3. أنا أفهم جيدا، تعلم التكلم بأدب ونقي ملافظك، وسأرد عليك بلغتك ولغتي العربية.
      يمكن أن تكون شكاوي المقابلات التي ذكرتها هي سبب التأجيل، لكن هل من العدل إستعمال ترتيب جانفي في المباراة الفاصلة، خاصة أن هناك منتخبات إفريقية كالكامرون ونيجيريا ليس لديها الفرصة لتحسين ترتيبها بينما المنتخبات العربية يمكنها تحسين ترتيبها بالمشاركة في كأس العرب.
      أنا لست ضد صعود مصر للمستوى الأول، بالعكس خاصة لتفادي فتنة جديدة إذا التقت في المباراة الفاصلة مع المغرب أو الجزائر أو تونس.
      لكن مصر لاتلوم إلا نفسها لأنها لم تلعب مباريات ودية في شهر جوان 2021 كانت كفيلة بها للصعود للمستوى الأول بكل سهولة.
      تحياتي

      Delete
    4. In the Arab Cup the match points Egypt can win won't be high because that will be a friendly tournament outside a FIFA International Match Window, so points will be calculated with only I=5.
      If the ranking of January will be used to seed the play-off draw then group matches and round of 16 matches for AFCON 2022 will also be included. Both involved teams Nigeria and Egypt will play there and both will be in the same group D by the way !
      Matches in this tournament have an I-factor of 35 so a lot more points per match can be won or lost. And remember: in the round of 16 matches a team can't lose points anymore then.

      But it would be nonsense (and unfair) to compile a ranking in the midst of a continental final tournament. If the investigations into match-fixing and substitution rules violation and possible subsequent actions take too long to be able to conduct the draw in December and use the December ranking (published Dec 23rd) for seeding, then in my opinion not the January ranking should be used, but the February ranking, which will include the complete AFCON 2022. This ranking is only available on Feb 10th, so the draw should be postponed until after that date.

      Delete
    5. العدل كانت اقيمت القرعة علي تصنيف نوفمبر لا جدال في ذلك
      لكن الظلم الذي اعترضت عليه هو القاء اللوم علي مصر. وكانك مضطلع علي احداث وتفاصيل الكونجرس
      واحيطك علما ان سؤالي ان كنت تفهم وجود شكاوي من عدمة لا يوجد به اساءه ادب

      Delete
    6. عار ان يلقي شخص ما التهم جزافا علي مصر بأنها هي من ضغط لكي يتم تأجيل القرعة وبالتالي شهر التصنيف. اوضح اد وجود اعتراضات تخص جنوب افريقيا وغانا وتخص بنين والكنغو مازالت تحت الدراسة.
      كما اود ان اخبركم رأي المصريين انفسهم في قصة التصنيف
      منتخبات التصنيف الأول تونس و الجزائر و نيجيريا ليسوا في افضل حالاتهم والمغرب لم تختبر كونها لم تغادر الرباط في ستة مباريات - فقط السنغال هي الفريق الصعب
      اما التصنيف الثاني وبه الكمرون ومالي وغانا ومصر فمستواهم في تصاعد مستمر ويمثل خطورة علي دول التصنيف الأول. ولا يوجد فريق ضعيف في التصنيف الثاني سوي الكنغو. فربما يكون من صالح مصر البقاء فيما يسمي التصنيف الثاني.

      It is a shame for someone to arbitrarily accuse Egypt of being the one who pressed to postpone the draw and the month of ranking. Ed said in a previous post that there are objections related to South Africa, Ghana, Benin and Congo, which are still under consideration.
      I would also like to tell what the Egyptians themselves think about the ranking story..
      The first-ranked teams Tunisia, Algeria and Nigeria are not at their best and Morocco has not been tested because it has not left homeland during all group matchess - only Senegal is the tough team.
      For the unseeded teams, which includes Cameroon, Mali, Ghana and Egypt, their level is constantly rising and represents a danger to the seeded countries. There is no weak team in the second ranked teams except the Congo DR. It may be Egypt's interest to stay in the so-called second ranked (unseeded).

      Delete
  4. NOT CONFIRMED : In Oceania, with limited IMC of 3 matches in March...it is looking likely that top 5 teams gets a bye with bottom 6 playing head-to-head. The main reason is New Zealand has a lot of players playing in Euros and want them to be part of WCQ...there is no way you can do it in group stages within IMC and cubs letting them go for a long period of time.

    March [G0] - Preliminary Round [ outside IMC ]
    March [G1] - Quarter-Finals [ IMC ]
    March [G2] - Semi-Finals
    March [G3] - Finals

    Source : https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/football/nz-teams/127055695/all-whites-sweating-on-oceania-qualifying-format-as-path-to-world-cup-firms-up

    ReplyDelete
  5. Welsh fan, this simulation gives us a way higher chance than I would give us. There's no way I would give us an 85% chance of beating Austria, or a 70% chance of beating Scotland or Ukraine. Home advantage is a help, but not that much!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't forget, Wales currently has an elo rating of 1836 (Ukraine 1817) and Austria and Scotland are more than 100 points (1731 and 1729 respectively) behind them.
      These rating points differences, combined with the home advantage for Wales, leads to these win probabilities.

      Delete
    2. I feel the home win advantage in this model seems a bit excessive though, with both Italy and Sweden are given only 30% chance away against (slightly) lower ranked teams. If you look at the UEFA qualifying so far we've seen 104 home wins and 92 away wins which suggests it's a factor but not that great.

      Delete
  6. Why does IRan only have a 1 percent chance of being in pot 2 of the WC seedings? Could very well end up above many of the seeded things who are not gonna make the WC most likely

    ReplyDelete
  7. Well, for Iran to land in pot 2 they need Colombia, Uruguay, Senegal, Wales and Sweden to all fail to qualify or at least drop below Iran in the March 2022 ranking. These teams have currently between 50 and 5 points more than Iran in the ranking.
    All in all, it seems like a very tall order for Iran to get even a sniff of pot 2. I can completely understand this very low pot 2 percentage for Iran.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Amajo Pinnick, President of the Nigeria Football Federation, announced that the FIFA rankings for the month of November will be decisive in ranking the teams in the third and final stage of the African qualifiers for the World Cup.

    In statements published by the Ghana SoccerNet website, Bennick indicated that the African Union’s executive office settled, during its last meeting, on adopting the November classification for the lottery that will be held on January 26th.

    ReplyDelete
  9. https://ghanasoccernet.com/fifa-ranking-for-november-to-be-used-for-2022-world-cup-play-offs-draw-nff-boss-reveals

    Can this be trusted? It is announced by only one side

    ReplyDelete
  10. Thanks, I read it elsewhere also. What I don't understand: why doesn't CAF communicate such important information on their site, but let it be remarked by a Nigerian official in a newspaper.
    So strange this !

    ReplyDelete