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Monday, December 3, 2018

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (3 december 2018)

The group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 is finished. Yesterday was the draw for the qualification groups for EURO 2020 and today the draw for the Final Four of the Nations League. Finally all the ingredients are available for a complete simulation of the seeding for the European qualification for the World Cup 2022, bar the odd missing friendly of course.

I still think the July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.

The qualification format is not yet known in detail. I will give probabilities for three different formats with seeding pots consisting of 9, 10 or 11 teams.


Below the current probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot are presented, generated over 10.000 simulations. Teams are ordered by their average pot.

Earlier simulation results: from before the start of the UNLafter MD2 of UNL and after MD4 of UNL.

With pots of 9 teams (8 groups of 6 teams and 1 group of 7 teams)



team     pot 1     pot 2     pot 3     pot 4     pot 5     pot 6
Belgium 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
France 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
Croatia 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
England 99,94 0,06 0 0 0 0
Portugal 99,69 0,31 0 0 0 0
Spain 97,92 2,08 0 0 0 0
Switzerland 89,73 10,27 0 0 0 0
Denmark 92,24 7,76 0 0 0 0
Netherlands 48,78 51,22 0 0 0 0
Germany 44,98 55,02 0 0 0 0
Sweden 19,72 80,28 0 0 0 0
Italy 6,53 93,42 0,05 0 0 0
Wales 0,42 97,62 1,96 0 0 0
Poland 0,05 97,44 2,51 0 0 0
Austria 0 86,90 13,10 0 0 0
Romania 0 79,78 20,20 0,02 0 0
Ukraine 0 63,74 36,16 0,10 0 0
Slovakia 0 51,58 48,34 0,08 0 0
Serbia 0 36,71 63,15 0,14 0 0
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 37,93 60,68 1,39 0 0
Republic of Ireland 0 29,70 69,77 0,53 0 0
Northern Ireland 0 13,08 79,09 7,83 0 0
Iceland 0 2,62 86,91 10,47 0 0
Scotland 0 0,73 86,62 12,65 0 0
Turkey 0 1,37 72,01 26,62 0 0
Czech Republic 0 0,15 67,48 32,37 0 0
Russia 0 0 45,83 54,17 0 0
Greece 0 0,07 38,99 60,94 0 0
Norway 0 0,11 34,44 65,45 0 0
Bulgaria 0 0 32,54 67,46 0 0
Montenegro 0 0,04 29,31 70,65 0 0
Hungary 0 0,01 10,85 89,14 0 0
Finland 0 0 0,01 99,45 0,54 0
Albania 0 0 0 99,45 0,55 0
Slovenia 0 0 0 97,67 2,33 0
FYR Macedonia 0 0 0 87,94 12,06 0
Belarus 0 0 0 14,83 85,17 0
Georgia 0 0 0 0,19 99,81 0
Cyprus 0 0 0 0,03 99,97 0
Israel 0 0 0 0,35 99,65 0
Luxembourg 0 0 0 0,08 99,92 0
Estonia 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Faroe Islands 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Armenia 0 0 0 0 99,64 0,36
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 0 99,43 0,57
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 0 0,93 99,07
Kosovo 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Lithuania 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Latvia 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Andorra 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Moldova 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Liechtenstein 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Malta 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
San Marino 0 0 0 0 0 100,00

With pots of 10 teams (5 groups of 5 teams and 5 groups of 6 teams)


team     pot 1     pot 2     pot 3     pot 4     pot 5     pot 6
France 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
Belgium 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
Croatia 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
England 99,99 0,01 0 0 0 0
Portugal 99,96 0,04 0 0 0 0
Spain 99,39 0,61 0 0 0 0
Denmark 97,16 2,84 0 0 0 0
Switzerland 95,95 4,05 0 0 0 0
Germany 70,60 29,40 0 0 0 0
Netherlands 66,95 33,05 0 0 0 0
Sweden 43,18 56,82 0 0 0 0
Italy 22,29 77,71 0 0 0 0
Wales 3,20 96,76 0,04 0 0 0
Poland 1,13 98,41 0,46 0 0 0
Austria 0,20 94,82 4,98 0 0 0
Romania 0 93,10 6,90 0 0 0
Ukraine 0 83,41 16,59 0 0 0
Slovakia 0 76,70 23,30 0 0 0
Republic of Ireland 0 65,10 34,86 0 0 0
Serbia 0 64,23 35,77 0 0 0
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 62,53 37,40 0,07 0 0
Northern Ireland 0 31,46 67,58 0,96 0 0
Iceland 0 14,00 84,90 1,10 0 0
Scotland 0 4,77 93,69 1,54 0 0
Turkey 0 5,60 90,16 4,24 0 0
Czech Republic 0 1,97 90,23 7,80 0 0
Russia 0 0,04 89,27 10,69 0 0
Greece 0 1,05 78,93 20,02 0 0
Norway 0 0,64 73,55 25,81 0 0
Bulgaria 0 0,14 66,64 33,22 0 0
Montenegro 0 0,51 63,52 35,97 0 0
Hungary 0 0,23 37,08 62,69 0 0
Finland 0 0 2,40 97,60 0 0
Albania 0 0 1,06 98,94 0 0
Slovenia 0 0 0,66 99,34 0 0
FYR Macedonia 0 0 0,03 99,97 0 0
Belarus 0 0 0 100,00 0 0
Cyprus 0 0 0 83,25 16,75 0
Georgia 0 0 0 79,37 20,63 0
Israel 0 0 0 66,81 33,19 0
Luxembourg 0 0 0 54,85 45,15 0
Estonia 0 0 0 10,81 89,19 0
Faroe Islands 0 0 0 2,73 97,27 0
Armenia 0 0 0 2,11 97,89 0
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 0,07 99,93 0
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Lithuania 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Latvia 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Andorra 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Kosovo 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Moldova 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
San Marino 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Malta 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Liechtenstein 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0 0 100,00

With pots of 11 teams (11 groups of 5 teams)

team     pot 1     pot 2     pot 3     pot 4     pot 5
France 100,00 0 0 0 0
Belgium 100,00 0 0 0 0
Croatia 100,00 0 0 0 0
England 100,00 0 0 0 0
Portugal 100,00 0 0 0 0
Spain 99,87 0,13 0 0 0
Denmark 99,17 0,83 0 0 0
Switzerland 98,82 1,18 0 0 0
Germany 87,65 12,35 0 0 0
Netherlands 82,55 17,45 0 0 0
Sweden 68,15 31,85 0 0 0
Italy 45,20 54,80 0 0 0
Wales 9,99 90,01 0 0 0
Poland 6,53 93,36 0,11 0 0
Austria 1,73 97,08 1,19 0 0
Romania 0,33 97,70 1,97 0 0
Ukraine 0,01 95,37 4,62 0 0
Slovakia 0 92,22 7,78 0 0
Serbia 0 90,72 9,28 0 0
Republic of Ireland 0 85,43 14,57 0 0
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 81,89 18,11 0 0
Northern Ireland 0 54,73 45,27 0 0
Iceland 0 38,25 61,75 0 0
Scotland 0 20,31 79,68 0,01 0
Turkey 0 19,50 80,43 0,07 0
Czech Republic 0 10,17 89,81 0,02 0
Greece 0 4,76 94,48 0,76 0
Norway 0 3,16 95,99 0,85 0
Montenegro 0 2,77 96,23 1,00 0
Russia 0 1,21 98,68 0,11 0
Bulgaria 0 2,01 96,57 1,42 0
Hungary 0 0,76 91,53 7,71 0
Albania 0 0 39,12 60,88 0
Finland 0 0 38,91 61,09 0
Slovenia 0 0 27,73 72,27 0
FYR Macedonia 0 0 6,10 93,90 0
Belarus 0 0 0,09 99,91 0
Cyprus 0 0 0 100,00 0
Georgia 0 0 0 100,00 0
Luxembourg 0 0 0 99,98 0,02
Israel 0 0 0 99,97 0,03
Estonia 0 0 0 98,68 1,32
Faroe Islands 0 0 0 85,68 14,32
Armenia 0 0 0 79,99 20,01
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 35,63 64,37
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 0,07 99,93
Lithuania 0 0 0 0 100,00
Latvia 0 0 0 0 100,00
Andorra 0 0 0 0 100,00
Kosovo 0 0 0 0 100,00
Moldova 0 0 0 0 100,00
San Marino 0 0 0 0 100,00
Malta 0 0 0 0 100,00
Liechtenstein 0 0 0 0 100,00
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0 100,00

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

37 comments:

  1. Wow, that was very quick. Thank you.

    Do these simulations include the actual Euro 2020 qualifiers for March and June?

    I'm looking at the pots of 10 (the only ones I think are realistic) and eight of the top ten are virtually decided with basically only four teams left to fight for the last two spots. Does the fact that Holland and Germany play each other in March lower their chances?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're welcome.

      Of course Forza, that was the only reason to wait until yesterday: to be able to include all the fixtures of EURO 2020 qualification and the Nations League Final Four :)

      Well, I don't think it lowers the chances significantly of Germany and the Dutch to play each other. It is hard opposition for both anyway, so a smaller chance of winning, but on the other hand, if one wins they will gain a lot of points.
      It is just a tasty coincidence :)

      Delete
    2. A draw of WC qualifying is scheduled on July 2019. Second season of UNL will play in Autumn 2020 and final in June 2021. 4 finalists must be in group of 5 teams, in June they will play 2 games in UNL final. In July 2019 Uefa won't know which teams must play in group of 5 teams. So I think it will be 11 qualifying groups.

      Delete
  2. What about fifa Worldcup seeding Of Afc(Asia).When will start.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Great work Ed, when will you be posting the Euro 2020 Qualification simulations ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I second that. It'd be interesting to see the teams' chances to make it to Euro 2020 now that the qualifying groups are known.

      Delete
    2. And it also would be great to simulate UEFA Nations League playoffs (chances to be a contender and to qualify through the new way) if possible.

      Delete
    3. Here are 100K simulations I made:
      http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2018/12/uefa-euro-2020-qualifying-simulations.html?m=1

      Delete
  4. I will post the simulations of Euro 2020q when I've incorporated the subsequent play-offs correctly. I aim at 'before the end of the year'.
    I shall then also give simulation results of the other confederations (AFC, CAF, CONCACAF) regarding the seeding for the World Cup 2022 qualification.
    So please, bear with me.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Already made 100K simulations. Programming all the playoffs rules is indeed complicated...
      http://simtheworld.blogspot.com/2018/12/uefa-euro-2020-qualifying-simulations.html?m=1

      Delete
  5. I could well imagine 9 groups with 1 group having 7 teams and the other 8 having 6 teams. Why?

    Well, only this format guarantees, that every runner-up will at least have a play-off spot secured. (9 group winners and the best runner-up qualify directly, the other 8 runners-up will fight for 4 additional spots).

    The group of 7 will have 42 matches instead of 30. They will be played on 14 matchdays instead of 10, so there is the need for two additional double international weeks for this group.

    I think this won't be a problem, as there is plenty of time until november when the world cup of 2022 starts.

    The 14 matchdays will be:

    (1-2) Okt 2019
    (3-4) Nov 2019
    (5-6) Mar 2021
    (7-8) Jun 2021
    (9-10) Sep 2021
    (11-12) Okt 2021
    (13-14) Nov 2021
    (Play-Offs) Mar 2022

    I could imagine, that UEFA will have the play-off spots assigned to UNL winners of the 2020/2021 edition, as they did now for Euro 2020.

    However, this will be fun to watch.

    1.) If the WC 2022 is in November, when will the UNL 2022/2023 group matches will take place? In the beginning of 2022 then?

    2.) The year 2020 is already crowded. You have the playoffs in March, the Euro in June and the next edition of the UNL in Sept, Oct and Nov. So there is no place for WC qualifier in 2020, meaning a full gap between matchday 3-4 and 5-6.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry but you are wrong:
      1. UEFA has 13 spora, not 14.
      2. From qualifying draw to march 2022 (play- offs) there are 26 match days. 8 for euro 2020 qualifying, 6 for second season of UNL. Rest, 10 MD in 2021 for WC2022 qualifying and 2 in march 2022 for play offs.
      3. For 4 UNL ligue A winners must be gaps (2 matches in June 2021).
      4. But The draw will be earlier then start of 2nd season UNL.
      5. So all teams should be able to have possibility a gap in June 2021.
      6. It means 11 group of 5 teams.
      11 group winners will get promotion directly to WC plus 2 teams via play-offs (4 best runners-up will go to play-offs in march 2022).
      Greetings from Poland.

      Delete
    2. I agree. I just think the 2 play-offs will come from Nations League best teams non qualified for the World Cup.

      To determine 4 best second spots from 11 groups would be very poor, as the groups are completely different, you can have easier groups that would facilitate this teams the play-off spot.

      So, I see the UEFA Ranking in Nations League, of non qualified teams (From A and B ranking - if there is not enough teams in League A qualified-) a better and fair option.

      Delete
    3. @Gabriel,
      1. for teams from ligue C and D this option is unfair.
      2. FIFA does't care that groups are completely different.
      3. Theoretically all teams have the same chance to take a second place and get promotion to play-offs, for me this is fair.
      4. UNL and WC qualifying are completely different competitions. FIFA will not use UNL for WCup qualification.
      Greetings from Poland.

      Delete
    4. UEFA can choose whatever qualifying format they want, so if they want to include Nations League - they can. But Ceferin already said that they probably won't include it, so play-offs based on second place rankings is more likely.

      Delete
    5. I agree, UEFA can choose whatever they want but FIFA must approve. 2nd season of UNL will based on previous one, FIFA always use their own ranking. In my opinion, for this reason FIFA won't agree for play-offs based on UNL.

      Greetings from Poland

      Delete
  6. @marko

    (1-2) Okt 2019 and (3-4) Nov 2019 are both being used for Euro 2020 qualifying (Matchdays 7-10)

    ReplyDelete
  7. @markjo part 2

    There are 4 match dates in June 2022 and 2 in September 2022
    so UEFA would use these dates unless they wanted to have the Nations League Group Stage completed in March 2023

    https://img.fifa.com/image/upload/jt0d6qoqwqwbp5sbofoc.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  8. Is there a chance to see all the potential seeding from other confederations (CAF, CONCACAF AND AFC)

    ReplyDelete
  9. What about the UEFA qualification format and seeding for potentially increased 2022 World Cup? It may turn out that it will be 48 teams with 16 European. Infantino promised the decision will be made in March and if the World Cup will be expanded, we should anticipate 11 groups of 5 teams, 11 winners qualifying directly, one worst runner-up eliminated and 10 remaining advancing to play-offs and being drawn into 5 pairs. It could mean there will be no linking of WCQ with the Nations League.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can't see them having 11 groups of 5. That would mean too many redundant teamson each matchday. A likelier scenario is 10 groups (5x5 & 5x6) with the 10 group winners and 2 best runners-up qualifying. The remaining 8 runners-up would then be drawn into play-offs to decide the other 4 places. I fully expect this format for 2026 even if 2022 isn't expanded. It would even give scope for additional teams if any "new" UEFA teams were to appear before then.

      Delete
  10. Yes, I agree with that. I would definitely prefer the format of 10 groups with no runners-up eliminated and in consequences no comparison of results between different groups. But if they want to play UEFA Nations League Final 4 every two years some teams can't be drawn into the groups of 6. The draw is planned for July 2019 and we won't know which teams must avoid a bigger groups yet. So the worse format may still win. Do the Nations League have to be played so often? 4 year cycle would be enough with adding even more prestige to the winners.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now I've noticed that the comparison between different groups still would be necessary in both formats. And with all groups equal with 5 teams it will be easier (with no games discarded). So this + UNL Final 4 make the format of 11 groups more anticipated.

      Delete
  11. I am sure that will 11 groups with 5 teams. The main reason is: in group with 5 teams each team has 2 matches gap. For UNL finalists it will be in June 2021. As you mation before, in July 2019 no one knows which teams will play in 2nd season of UNL final.
    BTW FIFA probably will discard games against last team in each group due to big diference between teams in pot 5 e.g. San Marino and Lithuania.
    Greetings from Poland

    ReplyDelete
  12. Very important FIFA Council meeting next week, some interesting things regarding the World Cup on the agenda:
    https://img.fifa.com/image/upload/vppwxetxo3lymgvh0klu.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  13. Indeed nogomet, a juicy agenda, highlighting:
    - Regulations for the preliminary competition for the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022
    - Future of competitions: FIFA Club World Cup and Nations League
    - Feasibility study on the increase of the number of teams from 32 to 48 in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022

    For me, I'm curious to see the format for each confederation's qualification for the World Cup in Qatar 2022, although regulations are in FIFA's perspective probably not the same as format :)
    And for a possible expansion to 48 teams in Qatar already, I don't see that happening.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In the agenda, they put the feasibility study on the expansion of WC 2022 AFTER the adoption of regulations of the preliminary competition. One would think that if they are to increase the number of teams, they'd approve this BEFORE voting on the regulations of the qualifiers.

      Delete
    2. To my mind it is already very very late to separate the decision on "regulations" and decision on "format". Some continents want to start qualifying campaign very soon. But if they approve the qualification format and later decide on World Cup expansion, it may require to be amended (immediately? surely no). But they also can: 1) modify the sequence of agenda points, or 2) approve some format feasible for simple determining both ammounts of teams (for example 13 and 16 in UEFA).

      Delete
    3. I just read that the final decision on how many teams will play in the next world cup will be taken on June 6th. Well, June 6th is the day that qualifications start in Asia .....

      Delete
  14. Well, I totally neglected the unbridled greed under FIFA's executives in my assessment of the expansion to 48 teams. It turns out FIFA thinks this expansion is totally viable for 2022 already and is worth serious research leading to a joint proposal from FIFA and Qatar in the coming months, subject to voting in the beginning of June in Paris.
    They admit in their feasability study (great read by the way!) that some sporting considerations can not be met in this format, but who cares.

    The qualification formats for the confederations are still not finalised and this new turn of events will probably lead to a much smaller draw in July (only for the first rounds in AFC and CAF) or even postpone the complete qualification draw to a later date.

    Their estimations regarding the timing for preliminary competition per confederation (Annexe 2 of the report) show that only AFC and CAF need to start in 2019 with their qualification. CONMEBOL, CONCACAF and OFC start in 2020 and UEFA only starts in 2021. Especially CONCACAF needs a thoroughly revised qualification format if FIFA decides to expand. I see a possible conflict arising in Autumn 2020 with their qualification process and the CONCACAF Nations League 2020, scheduled in the same period. Maybe that can be solved by doubling the CONCACAF Nations League as World Cup qualification.

    We will see. It seems we live in turbulent times and only few things are certain :)

    ReplyDelete
  15. So we can be pretty sure UEFA will not have a draw in July 2019. Thus all the seeding simulations are down the drain. I liked how Infantino started his presidency, but this mess with forcing 48 teams in 2022 is the turning point in my book.

    ReplyDelete
  16. So bye, bye watching all World Cup games on TV! :(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you really want to see Uzbekistan vs. Tunisia or Qatar vs. Jamaica?
      I've seen all tournaments since 1982 but after increasing to 48 teams I won't watch it. Graet job Infantino.

      Delete
    2. I'm pretty sure people in those countries would like to see those games. Besides, Tunisia are already regulars at a 32-team finals and Jamaica have also qualified. Uzbekistan are never far away and Qatar are current Asian champions. Not sure that your point stands by using these 4 teams.

      Delete
    3. at the last championships at the same time were matches Belgium vs England and
      Tunisia vs Panama. Which one did you watch?
      Infantino thinks about money, more teams more money.

      Delete
  17. According to the latest FIFA rankings and the allocation for the expanded WC, we are likely to see in the finals (or at least in the play-offs) teams like Burkina Faso, Honduras, Mali, China, El Salvador, Panama, Iraq, New Zealand, and the Solomon Islands. Not one of these teams is ranked in the top 60. New Zealand is 119. The Solomon Islands are 143.

    Personally I will watch every game, and I would watch even if San Marino and Samoa played the opening match, but it is a no-brainer that FIFA is diluting the strength of the WC.

    My biggest concerns with the expansion are:

    1. The anti-UEFA attitude of FIFA: UEFA has 30 teams in the top 48 and has dominated the last WCs, yet gets only 16 spots and is excluded from the play-offs.

    2. The ridiculous format with groups of three.

    3. The fact that this expansion has nothing to do with expanding football and everything to do with Infantino's needed votes for reelection.

    On the plus side, today Germany failed to beat Serbia.

    ReplyDelete
  18. 48 is too much.
    I'd settle with 40. 10 groups of 4. 10 winners plus 6 runners up. Unfair? Maybe, but better tham the atrocious 48 teams in groups of 3.

    The 8 new spots would go
    1 to each confederation - 6
    2 play-off spots - with the 6 association having a team (just like they intend to do, but UEFA on).

    If this was applied in 2018, we would have had this 8 teams.

    - Honduras
    - Chile
    - New Zealand
    - Italy
    - Syria
    - DR Congo

    The playoff would be:

    Seeded:
    USA
    Northern Ireland

    Unseeded:
    Paraguay
    Solomon Islands
    Burkina Faso
    UAE

    USA and Paraguay qualified.

    FIFA would still get the newcomers they want, and we would have at least 4 good teams in this bunch.

    ReplyDelete