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Wednesday, October 16, 2019

FIFA ranking: October 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday October 24th.

This coming weekend the final 15 qualifiers for the African Nations Championship 2020 will be played. These matches will count for the October ranking.

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between September 16th and today the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-09-18 Congo DR - Rwanda 2:3 (in Congo DR)
2019-09-29 Bangladesh - Bhutan 4:1 (in Bangladesh)
2019-10-02 Dominican Republic - Cuba 0:0 (in the Dominican Republic)
2019-10-10 Niger - Zambia 1:1 (in Niger)
2019-10-13 Niger - Central African Republic 0:2 (in Niger)

In total 191 matches will count for this ranking.

See here for 'my inclusion rules'. 
We will see how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)


Best movers:
11 - South Sudan
10 - Nicaragua, Barbados, Sao Tomé e Príncipe

Worst movers:
-12 - Mauritius
-8 - Suriname, Republic of Ireland

Best movers in the top 50:
5 - Russia
4 - Turkey
3 - Ukraine, Japan

Worst movers in the top 50:
-8 - Republic of Ireland
-4 - Iran, Costa Rica

Two teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Senegal (19 - 20 in July 2019)
Kosovo (113 - 119 in September 2019)

Two teams will return to their lowest ranking:
Moldova (175 in June 2018)
Seychelles (200 in July 2013)

Three teams will drop to new lows:
Sri Lanka (203 - 202 in April 2019)
US Virgin Islands (206 - 202 in February 2008)
British Virgin Islands (208 - 207 in October 2018)

The preview below is calculated including the elo-predicted results for the 15 CHAN 2020 qualifiers.


October 2019 rank - Team - October 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Belgium 1755 0 3,0
2 France 1726 0 1,0
3 Brazil 1715 0 -4,0
4 England 1651 0 -11,0
5 Uruguay 1642 1 3,0
6 Portugal 1632 -1 -11,0
7 Croatia 1631 1 6,0
8 Spain 1625 -1 -6,0
9 Argentina 1617 1 3,0
10 Colombia 1615 -1 -7,0
11 Mexico 1613 1 10,0
12 Netherlands 1602 1 16,0
13 Switzerland 1601 -2 -3,0
14 Denmark 1599 0 15,0
15 Italy 1593 0 10,0
16 Germany 1586 0 6,0
17 Chile 1579 0 3,0
18 Sweden 1563 0 3,0
19 Senegal 1551 1 5,0
20 Peru 1548 -1 -3,0
21 Poland 1544 1 12,0
22 Ukraine 1536 3 20,0
23 USA 1530 -2 -15,0
24 Wales 1524 -1 2,0
25 Austria 1520 2 17,0
26 Venezuela 1512 0 6,0
27 Iran 1505 -4 -17,0
28 Japan 1498 3 8,0
29 Romania 1495 2 5,0
30 Tunisia 1493 -1 0,0
30 Slovakia 1493 -1 0,0
32 Turkey 1490 4 15,0
33 Serbia 1485 2 9,0
34 Northern Ireland 1483 -1 -5,0
35 Nigeria 1481 -1 -1,0
36 Republic of Ireland 1480 -8 -16,0
37 Russia 1474 5 19,0
38 Algeria 1472 0 6,0
39 Korea Republic 1466 -2 -4,0
40 Iceland 1460 1 -1,0
41 Paraguay 1458 -1 -4,0
42 Morocco 1456 -3 -7,0
43 Czech Republic 1454 1 13,0
44 Australia 1450 0 9,0
45 Norway 1441 2 6,0
45 Jamaica 1441 2 6,0
47 Costa Rica 1436 -4 -6,0
48 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1435 -2 -3,0
49 Egypt 1433 0 2,0
50 Hungary 1429 0 -1,0
51 Ghana 1426 0 -3,0
52 Cameroon 1410 1 1,0
53 Scotland 1406 -1 -9,0
54 Cote d'Ivoire 1397 2 3,0
55 Finland 1395 -1 -3,0
56 Congo DR 1394 -1 -1,0
57 Qatar 1391 5 14,0
58 Greece 1388 2 6,0
59 Mali 1387 -2 -4,0
60 Burkina Faso 1379 1 -2,0
61 Montenegro 1371 -2 -18,0
61 Bulgaria 1371 1 -6,0
63 Honduras 1368 4 9,0
63 Ecuador 1368 2 -2,0
65 Slovenia 1367 -7 -23,0
65 Albania 1367 -1 -5,0
67 United Arab Emirates 1353 -1 -12,0
68 North Macedonia 1344 1 5,0
69 Canada 1339 6 17,0
69 Saudi Arabia 1339 1 3,0
69 China PR 1339 -1 -1,0
72 South Africa 1337 -1 6,0
73 El Salvador 1336 -1 9,0
74 Bolivia 1329 -2 2,0
75 Iraq 1327 4 13,0
76 Curacao 1323 0 3,0
77 Cape Verde Islands 1319 1 4,0
78 Guinea 1312 -4 -13,0
79 Uganda 1311 1 6,0
80 Panama 1310 -3 -6,0
81 Zambia 1302 0 3,0
82 Benin 1293 1 0,0
83 Syria 1292 2 12,0
84 Oman 1289 0 -3,0
85 Uzbekistan 1287 3 15,0
86 Belarus 1286 -4 -8,0
87 Gabon 1285 1 13,0
88 Israel 1278 -2 1,0
89 Haiti 1276 -3 -1,0
90 Georgia 1274 1 10,0
91 Lebanon 1266 3 13,0
92 Congo 1265 -2 0,0
93 Cyprus 1263 -1 2,0
94 Kyrgyzstan 1252 3 15,0
95 Madagascar 1251 0 2,0
96 Luxembourg 1248 -3 -7,0
97 Vietnam 1245 2 14,0
98 Jordan 1236 0 1,0
99 Armenia 1226 -3 -16,0
99 Palestine 1226 2 3,0
101 Bahrain 1220 4 14,0
102 Libya 1214 0 2,0
103 Trinidad and Tobago 1213 -3 -13,0
104 Estonia 1209 -2 -3,0
105 Mauritania 1205 0 -1,0
106 Niger 1203 1 2,0
107 India 1201 -3 -6,0
108 Kenya 1196 -1 -5,0
109 Thailand 1193 5 18,0
110 Faroe Islands 1192 -1 1,0
111 Azerbaijan 1189 -2 -2,0
112 Mozambique 1186 0 5,0
113 Kosovo 1184 6 20,0
114 Korea DPR 1182 -1 6,0
115 Central African Republic 1181 -4 -3,0
116 Tajikistan 1168 -1 -6,0
117 Sierra Leone 1167 0 0,0
117 Zimbabwe 1167 1 2,0
119 Namibia 1162 1 0,0
120 Angola 1161 1 0,0
121 New Zealand 1157 1 0,0
121 Kazakhstan 1157 -5 -12,0
123 Guinea-Bissau 1155 0 0,0
124 Malawi 1140 0 0,0
125 Togo 1139 -1 -1,0
126 Philippines 1134 1 4,0
127 Antigua and Barbuda 1129 -1 -8,0
128 Sudan 1115 0 4,0
129 Rwanda 1108 1 4,0
130 Chinese Taipei 1102 -1 -5,0
131 Guatemala 1094 2 6,0
132 Lithuania 1086 -1 -8,0
133 Turkmenistan 1084 -2 -10,0
133 Equatorial Guinea 1084 1 0,0
135 Tanzania 1081 0 -2,0
136 Andorra 1080 3 5,0
137 Lesotho 1078 0 0,0
138 Nicaragua 1077 10 18,0
139 St. Kitts and Nevis 1076 -3 -5,0
140 Solomon Islands 1073 1 0,0
141 Yemen 1070 -4 -8,0
142 Comoros 1067 5 7,0
143 Latvia 1063 -4 -12,0
143 Burundi 1063 1 -2,0
145 Hong Kong 1061 -2 -7,0
146 Botswana 1057 2 -2,0
147 Myanmar 1055 -2 -9,0
148 Afghanistan 1054 -2 -8,0
149 Eswatini 1053 1 -2,0
150 Suriname 1052 -8 -17,0
151 Liberia 1047 1 -6,0
152 Ethiopia 1046 -1 -8,0
153 Dominican Republic 1040 2 8,0
154 Maldives 1039 -1 -8,0
155 New Caledonia 1035 -1 0,0
156 Kuwait 1034 0 5,0
157 Tahiti 1014 2 0,0
158 Malaysia 1009 0 -6,0
159 Singapore 1008 -2 -11,0
160 Barbados 1001 10 20,0
160 Grenada 1001 0 0,0
162 South Sudan 997 11 20,0
163 Fiji 996 0 0,0
163 Vanuatu 996 0 0,0
165 Papua New Guinea 991 0 0,0
166 Gambia 990 0 2,0
167 Nepal 988 -6 -11,0
168 Belize 986 2 5,0
168 Bermuda 986 -1 -1,0
168 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 986 6 17,0
171 Indonesia 975 -4 -12,0
172 Cambodia 974 -3 -8,0
173 Mauritius 970 -12 -29,0
174 Guyana 969 2 9,0
175 Moldova 963 -3 -15,0
176 Chad 955 1 5,0
177 St. Lucia 952 -3 -17,0
178 Puerto Rico 940 3 11,0
179 Cuba 938 -1 -2,0
180 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 934 10 29,0
181 Liechtenstein 933 1 5,0
182 Malta 924 -3 -9,0
183 Macau 922 1 0,0
184 Bangladesh 918 3 6,0
185 Djibouti 916 1 3,0
186 Mongolia 915 -3 -8,0
187 Dominica 914 -7 -18,0
188 Bhutan 913 -3 -3,0
189 Laos 912 -2 0,0
190 Montserrat 911 -3 -1,0
191 Brunei Darussalam 904 0 0,0
192 American Samoa 900 0 0,0
193 Cayman Islands 895 0 0,0
194 Samoa 894 0 0,0
195 Aruba 885 0 -5,0
196 Gibraltar 882 1 -7,0
196 Guam 882 -1 -8,0
198 Timor-Leste 879 1 0,0
198 Somalia 879 1 0,0
200 Seychelles 868 -2 -20,0
201 Bahamas 867 7 12,0
201 Pakistan 867 2 0,0
203 Sri Lanka 864 -1 -8,0
204 Tonga 862 1 0,0
204 Turks and Caicos Islands 862 1 0,0
206 US Virgin Islands 856 -5 -19,0
206 Eritrea 856 1 0,0
208 British Virgin Islands 854 -5 -13,0
209 Anguilla 831 0 -18,0
209 San Marino 831 1 -4,0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

15 comments:

  1. Forza azzurri (green? no thanks)October 18, 2019 at 3:46 AM

    Still keeping track of the possible European pots for WC 2020 qualifying:

    One - Belgium, France, England, Portugal, Croatia, Spain, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Italy
    Two - Germany, Sweden, Poland, Ukraine, Wales, Austria, Romania, Slovakia, Turkey, Serbia
    Three - Northern Ireland, Ireland, Russia, Iceland, Czech Rep., Norway, Bosnia, Hungary, Scotland, Finland
    Four - Greece, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Albania, Macedonia, Belarus, Israel, Georgia, Cyprus
    Five - Luxembourg, Armenia, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Azerbaijan, Kosovo, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Andorra, Latvia
    Six - Moldova, Liechstein, Malta, Gibraltar, San Marino

    Pot Two looks increasingly stronger. If I'm not mistaken there are still plenty of games to improve rankings: two European championship qualifying games, two play-off games (or two friendlies), Euro 2020, and six Nations League games.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Correct. Too many high-weighted games are yet to be played to predict the composition of pots. Only after the EURO 2020 is finished will we have a clearer picture, though the Nations League could still considerably change things before the end of November 2020.

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    3. At least we know thew qualifying format, and that there will be 10 groups. The only uncertainty is how the two play-off spots that will be filled by two UNL teams will be decided. Either from overall UNL rankings, or by looking at UNL rankings only amongst the third-placed teams from WC qualifying groups.

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  2. This is not going to be easy. Here's what I reckon, these give me at least the right numbers for all countries.

    Non FIFA friendlies:

    - Dem. Rep. Congo 2-3 Rwanda (18/09)
    - Dominican. Rep. 0-0 Cuba (02/10)
    - St. Lucia 3-1 Dominica (04/10)
    - St. Lucia 1-4 Dominica (06/10)
    - Niger 1-1 Zambia (10/10)
    - Tunisia 0-0 Cameroon (12/10)
    - Côte d'Ivoire 3-1 Dem. Rep. Congo (13/10)
    - Lesotho 1-1 Malawi (13/10)
    - Togo 1-1 Equitorial Guinea (13/10)
    - Bolivia 3-1 Haiti (15/10)

    PLUS, two from:

    - Botswana 0-0 Liberia (30/09)
    - Benin 2-2 Zambia (13/10)
    - Rwanda 1-1 Tanzania (14/10)

    because this makes 184 matches. So which 2 of the 3? None of these matches make a difference if they are included or excluded, so it is impossible to tell which one FIFA considers as the 'A' international and which two not.

    In addition it seems FIFA made Saudi Arabia 1-1 Mali on 9 September a non-FIFA friendly.

    The following are included as 'A' internationals by the way:

    - Bangladesh 4-1 Bhutan (29/09)
    - Niger 0-2 Central African Republic (13/10)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Ed, do you know why the Haiti Bolivia match didn't count towards FIFA points?

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    Replies
    1. No, not a clue. Bolivia used the max 6 substitutes, Haiti only 3. Maybe the referee wasn't FIFA approved ?

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  4. FIFA excluded and I included:
    St. Lucia - Dominica 3-1 (friendly (4/10)
    St. Lucia - Dominica 1-4 (friendly (6/10)
    Tunisia - Cameroon 0-0 (friendly (12/10)
    Cote d'Ivoire - Congo DR 3-1 (friendly (13/10)
    Lesotho - Malawi 1-1 (friendly (13/10)
    Togo - Equatorial Guinea 1-1 (friendly (13/10)
    Bolivia - Haiti 3-1 (friendly (15/10)

    FIFA included and I excluded:
    Bangladesh - Bhutan 4-1 (friendly 29/9)
    Niger - Central African Republic 0-2 (friendly 13/10)

    After these adjustments 1 point differences remained for two team: Kenya and Mali.

    Kenya has 1195,50017 points. Normally rounded to 1196, but I've seen earlier examples of FIFA incorrectly rounding down such a number with 0,500 as decimals. Can't find any other explanation for Kenya having 1195 points in the October ranking.

    Then Mali. Homer, I don't think that Saudi Arabia - Mali played on Sep 5 is suddenly excluded. Remember the matches we had doubt about for the July ranking? One of two matches (Cameroon - Mali on Jun 14 or Zimbabwe - Tanzania on Jun 16) had to be excluded. Until now I had both included in my calculations but marked as 'possibly excluded'. Now, if I exclude Cameroon - Mali then Mali's and all other teams ratings can be properly calculated for all subsequent published rankings.

    Then FIFA published yesterday that 184 matches counted for the October ranking. With the mentioned adjustments I come to 186 included matches, so indeed two more matches need to be excluded. Most likely candidates are:
    BOT-LBR 0-0 (friendly 30/9) pts-exchange 0,031
    BEN-ZAM 2-2 (friendly 13/10) pts-exchange 0,071
    RWA-TAN 0-0 (friendly 14/10) pts-exchange 0,241
    MTN-LBY 0-0 (friendly 15/10) pts-exchange 0,054
    Because the points-exchanges are so small, it can't be concluded with certainty which of these matches needs to be excluded. For now I have these 4 matches included, but will mark them as 'possibly excluded'.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I had already excluded Mauritania 0-0 Libya (15/10) because otherwise Libya don't get to the 4 matches that FIFA claim in their news article (see the table underneath the text). "Most matches played: Algeria, Morocco, Guinea, Libya, Bangladesh (4 matches each)"

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    2. And as for Kenya, I have them at 1195.48, so 1196. I will check my working later.

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    3. You are right about MTN-LBY. Well spotted !

      Please let me know what you find out regarding Kenya. Here's my calculation to compare:
      2019-10-13 - MOZ - Friendly 2019 - - 10 - 0 - 1 - - 1200,686 - 1181,297 - -5,186 - 1195,500
      2019-09-08 - UGA - Friendly 2019 - - 10 - 1 - 1 - - 1199,676 - 1306,379 - 1,010 - 1200,686
      2019-08-04 - TAN - CHAN 2020 Q - round 1, play-off 2nd leg - 5 - 0 - 0 - L - 1200,262 - 1075,900 - -0,585 - 1199,676
      2019-07-28 - TAN - CHAN 2020 Q - round 1, play-off 1st leg - 5 - 0 - 0 - - 1200,853 - 1075,309 - -0,591 - 1200,262
      2019-07-01 - SEN - CAF Nations Cup 2019 - group C - 35 - 0 - 3 - - 1209,496 - 1500,012 - -8,644 - 1200,853
      2019-06-27 - TAN - CAF Nations Cup 2019 - group C - 35 - 3 - 2 - - 1195,224 - 1097,987 - 14,272 - 1209,496
      2019-06-23 - ALG - CAF Nations Cup 2019 - group C - 35 - 0 - 2 - - 1208,131 - 1348,201 - -12,907 - 1195,224
      2019-06-15 - COD - Friendly 2019 - - 5 - 1 - 1 - - 1207,145 - 1424,349 - 0,986 - 1208,131
      2019-06-07 - MAD - Friendly 2019 - - 10 - 1 - 0 - - 1202,135 - 1203,235 - 5,011 - 1207,145
      2019-03-23 - GHA - CAF Nations Cup 2019 Q - stage 2, group F - 25 - 0 - 1 - - 1210,026 - 1411,658 - -7,891 - 1202,135
      2018-10-14 - ETH - CAF Nations Cup 2019 Q - stage 2, group F - 25 - 3 - 0 - - 1200,749 - 1063,298 - 9,278 - 1210,026
      2018-10-10 - ETH - CAF Nations Cup 2019 Q - stage 2, group F - 25 - 0 - 0 - - 1204,122 - 1059,925 - -3,373 - 1200,749
      2018-09-11 - MWI - Friendly 2018 - - 10 - 1 - 0 - - 1199,753 - 1133,608 - 4,369 - 1204,122
      2018-09-08 - GHA - CAF Nations Cup 2019 Q - stage 2, group F - 25 - 1 - 0 - - 1181,820 - 1424,455 - 17,933 - 1199,753
      2018-06-10 - IND - Friendly 2018 - Intercontinental Cup 2018 - 5 - 0 - 2 - - 1184,056 - 1239,315 - -2,236 - 1181,820
      2018-06-08 - TPE - Friendly 2018 - Intercontinental Cup 2018 - 5 - 4 - 0 - - 1181,768 - 1137,558 - 2,288 - 1184,056
      2018-06-04 - IND - Friendly 2018 - Intercontinental Cup 2018 - 5 - 0 - 3 - - 1184,000 - 1240,000 - -2,232 - 1181,768

      You see the following columns:
      - Match date
      - Opponent
      - Tournament
      - Stage
      - I
      - GF
      - GA
      - PSO
      - starting points KEN
      - starting points opponent
      - points exchange
      - points KEN after the match

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    4. That's the difference then. I excluded Zimbabwe v Tanzania on 16 June (I forget why, but possibly with one of the reasons being that Soccerway listed it on their non-A list, so that seemed to fit the puzzle). And from then things diverge on Kenya's score. After their match against Tanzania (3-2 on 27/06) I have them on 1209.48 (rounded, my software shows me two significant digits although it works without rounding. I'll tweak it today to optionally show all digits after the period). With this assumption we get all the correct numbers apart from Mali, and as I suggested that could be because Saudi Arabia v Mali was demoted as an international. I think it would make more sense than FIFA (or whichever company is behind the software) making a rounding error.

      By the way, did anyone notice that the FIFA app now lists friendly matches? It is hideously out of date because there's not a single score from any of the October friendlies, but (maybe significantly) they do list Botswana v Liberia (OK, maybe because it was in September), and they don't list Benin v Zambia or Rwanda v Tanzania. Strangely they do list Togo v Benin and Benin v Guinea-Bissau on 13 October... They now also at least list some upcoming matches. As for the matches in question, they list both Cameroon v Mali AND Zimbabwe v Tunisia in June, so no help there. It's certainly not good enough yet to be reliable at this point.

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    5. For the record, the points I have for Kenya after playing Tanzania on 27/06 is 1209.4830205678381 (assuming Zimbabwe v Tanzania was not a full international). This means they would have 1195.48 right now, making 1195 (not 1196 what I wrote earlier).

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    6. Thanks for your help, Homer.

      I had ZIM-TAN included and that lead to Kenya having 1295,5001 in October. It was not correct to conclude that it must be caused by a rounding error, even though in recent history FIFA evidently did make some rounding errors with such numbers in the previous calculation method anyway.
      The match I was missing was the 21/7 friendly EQG-LBR 1-1. That's the match that needs to be included and then ZIM-TAN can be excluded to still have 146 matches counting for the July ranking. With that Kenya has 1295,48 in October.
      Regarding Mali, it is enough to exclude the CMR-MLI friendly on 14/6. KSA-MLI must be included. If that match is excluded Mali still ends at 1386,88 instead of 1386 in the October ranking.

      The FIFA app now has a section Friendlies indeed, but it's selection is still nowhere near reliable (and indeed not up-to-date). Friendlies evidently not included are listed. It's still a mess.

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    7. Check, looks like a lot of us missed that match, thanks!

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