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Friday, May 16, 2014

FIFA Ranking: June 2014 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

According to these results, Turkmenistan are expected to defeat Palestine the AFC Challenge Cup and rise 83 spots in the rankings, while Palestine will raise 64 places.




Probable June 2014 rank - Team - Probable June 2014 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

 
1 Spain 1485 0 25
2 Germany 1327 0 -13
3 Brazil 1242 1 32
4 Portugal 1224 -1 -21
5 Argentina 1175 2 -3
6 Uruguay 1168 0 -13
7 Colombia 1160 -2 -26
8 Switzerland 1153 0 -8
9 Italy 1126 0 11
10 England 1090 1 47
11 Greece 1044 -1 -38
12 USA 1033 2 18
13 Chile 1026 0 -11
14 Netherlands 1018 1 51
15 Belgium 992 -3 -47
16 Ukraine 965 1 52
17 France 964 -1 29
18 Russia 920 0 17
19 Croatia 903 1 32
20 Mexico 867 -1 -10
21 Bosnia-Herzegovina 836 4 41
22 Côte d'Ivoire 826 -1 -4
23 Algeria 818 2 23
24 Slovenia 800 5 13
25 Ecuador 790 3 -4
25 Sweden 790 0 -5
27 Scotland 786 -5 -39
28 Denmark 784 -5 -35
29 Romania 769 3 13
30 Costa Rica 766 4 18
31 Serbia 758 -1 -1
32 Honduras 750 -2 -9
33 Panama 743 2 4
34 Czech Republic 724 2 -7
35 Egypt 715 -11 -83
36 Iran 708 1 -7
37 Ghana 707 1 -6
38 Armenia 699 -5 -51
39 Austria 674 1 1
39 Cape Verde Islands 674 3 9
41 Venezuela 672 0 6
42 Turkey 661 -3 -50
43 Wales 644 4 31
44 Hungary 630 1 7
45 Nigeria 629 -1 -2
46 Peru 627 -4 -38
47 Japan 626 0 13
48 Sierra Leone 608 23 124
49 Uzbekistan 595 4 18
50 Slovakia 591 -4 -25
51 Tunisia 574 -2 -23
52 Mali 572 7 27
53 Korea Republic 569 2 18
54 Cameroon 558 -4 -25
55 Finland 557 -3 -21
55 Montenegro 557 -1 2
57 Australia 552 2 7
57 Iceland 552 1 6
59 Norway 549 -4 -2
60 Burkina Faso 547 1 19
61 Libya 544 1 22
62 Paraguay 523 -7 -28
63 Guinea 521 -12 -59
64 Jordan 510 0 0
65 United Arab Emirates 498 2 -1
66 Albania 495 4 9
67 South Africa 490 -2 -17
68 Bolivia 483 0 -14
69 El Salvador 481 0 -7
70 Poland 474 2 -5
71 Republic of Ireland 470 -5 -34
71 Trinidad and Tobago 470 3 13
73 Turkmenistan 461 83 342
74 Morocco 458 2 4
75 Haiti 452 2 0
76 Bulgaria 449 -3 -11
77 Senegal 446 -14 -65
78 Zambia 440 1 -8
79 Saudi Arabia 428 -4 -27
80 FYR Macedonia 419 0 -24
81 Congo 408 11 41
81 Jamaica 408 0 -12
83 Uganda 407 3 12
84 Israel 404 -6 -46
85 Azerbaijan 396 0 -2
86 Congo DR 395 2 15
87 Benin 386 10 54
88 Central African Republic 385 18 101
89 Belarus 384 -6 -20
90 Togo 383 -1 9
91 Gabon 382 -4 -4
92 Northern Ireland 381 -8 -19
93 Zimbabwe 363 5 36
94 Equatorial Guinea 359 19 98
95 Estonia 357 -2 -9
96 Cuba 354 -6 -17
97 Oman 351 -15 -67
98 New Zealand 347 13 76
99 Qatar 339 -4 1
100 Botswana 338 -9 -31
101 Palestine 335 64 247
102 China PR 331 -6 -2
103 Angola 329 -9 -18
103 Iraq 329 -3 8
105 Georgia 322 -2 19
105 Kenya 322 1 38
107 Ethiopia 317 -6 -2
108 Moldova 308 -9 -17
109 Niger 299 -7 -16
110 Liberia 297 9 63
111 Bahrain 289 -6 0
112 Lithuania 288 -8 -5
113 Kuwait 287 -5 4
114 Burundi 280 11 65
115 Canada 276 -5 4
116 Latvia 269 -7 -4
116 Mozambique 269 -2 18
118 Sudan 254 -1 13
119 Malawi 250 3 23
120 Luxembourg 249 -8 -17
121 Vietnam 242 -5 0
122 Kazakhstan 241 -4 6
123 Namibia 240 -3 7
124 Tanzania 239 -2 12
125 Lebanon 233 -11 -18
126 Guatemala 229 -2 6
126 Tajikistan 229 -5 0
128 Dominican Republic 221 -2 9
129 Philippines 210 11 49
130 Afghanistan 204 -2 0
130 Malta 204 -2 0
132 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 203 -6 -9
133 Suriname 197 -2 0
134 St. Lucia 196 -1 5
135 New Caledonia 195 3 21
136 Syria 190 -2 0
137 Cyprus 189 -7 -12
138 Rwanda 186 -7 -11
139 Grenada 181 -3 -7
140 Korea DPR 175 -3 0
141 Maldives 174 12 50
142 Mauritania 170 -3 5
143 Lesotho 167 -2 8
144 Gambia 166 -10 -24
145 Thailand 159 -2 3
146 Antigua and Barbuda 158 -4 0
147 Kyrgyzstan 156 -1 8
148 Belize 152 -4 0
149 Malaysia 149 -4 0
150 India 144 -3 0
151 Singapore 141 -4 -3
152 Guyana 137 -1 0
153 Chad 134 12 46
153 Puerto Rico 134 -4 -9
155 Indonesia 133 -3 -2
156 St. Kitts and Nevis 124 -3 0
157 Aruba 122 -2 0
158 Liechtenstein 118 -8 -21
158 Tahiti 118 -1 2
160 Hong Kong 112 -2 1
161 Nepal 102 -2 0
161 Pakistan 102 -2 0
163 Bangladesh 98 -1 0
164 Dominica 93 -1 0
165 Barbados 92 -4 -9
166 Faroe Islands 89 -2 -2
167 Sao Tome e Principe 86 0 0
168 Bermuda 83 1 0
169 Guinea-Bissau 80 15 37
170 Chinese Taipei 78 0 0
170 Nicaragua 78 -2 -6
172 Guam 77 -1 0
173 Sri Lanka 73 0 0
174 Laos 72 -1 -1
175 Solomon Islands 70 -3 -5
176 Myanmar 69 -3 -4
177 Seychelles 66 -1 0
178 Curacao 65 -1 0
179 Yemen 61 0 -2
180 Swaziland 58 -2 -6
181 Mauritius 57 -1 2
182 South Sudan 47 19 37
183 Comoros 44 1 1
184 Bahamas 40 2 0
185 Madagascar 35 4 3
185 Mongolia 35 2 0
187 Fiji 34 -5 -13
188 Montserrat 33 0 0
189 Cambodia 28 1 0
189 Samoa 28 -6 -17
191 Brunei Darussalam 26 0 0
191 Timor-Leste 26 0 0
191 Tonga 26 0 0
191 Vanuatu 26 -11 -29
195 US Virgin Islands 23 -1 0
196 Cayman Islands 21 -1 0
196 Papua New Guinea 21 -1 0
198 American Samoa 18 -1 0
198 British Virgin Islands 18 -1 0
200 Andorra 16 -1 0
201 Eritrea 11 -1 0
202 Macau 8 0 0
202 Somalia 8 0 0
204 Djibouti 6 0 0
205 Cook Islands 5 0 0
206 Anguilla 3 0 0
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

11 comments:

  1. Edgar, can you post the probable July rankings before the WC starts? I assume there will be some heavy changes in the rankings.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry nogomet - I don't have time for this.

      Delete
  2. If someone could give me the probable results (or the formula to calculate them), i could try to ease Edgar's job.

    These are the current, minimum & maximum rankings:

    Spain 1100 - 1232 - 2032
    Colombia 991 - 1117 - 1926
    Uruguay 1036 - 1197 - 1906
    Germany 1045 - 1164 - 1884
    Argentina 972 - 1104 - 1884
    Switzerland 947 - 1104 - 1868
    Belgium 890 - 1007 - 1821
    Italy 881 - 969 - 1821
    Croatia 821 - 907 - 1795
    Portugal 913 - 1097 - 1767
    Greece 903 - 1006 - 1742
    England 865 - 965 - 1736
    Bosnia-Herzegovina 772 - 857 - 1735
    Netherlands 868 - 959 - 1727
    Brazil 829 - 925 - 1721
    Algeria 709 - 862 - 1697
    Côte d'Ivoire 706 - 787 - 1691
    France 814 - 968 - 1684
    Russia 811 - 895 - 1661
    Chile 808 - 913 - 1654
    Ecuador 714 - 771 - 1619
    USA 868 - 984 - 1514
    Costa Rica 575 - 646 - 1487
    Honduras 637 - 720 - 1420
    Iran 476 - 581 - 1399
    Mexico 730 - 785 - 1373
    Australia 397 - 419 - 1342
    Cameroon 520 - 576 - 1319
    Ghana 584 - 634 - 1283
    Japan 537 - 576 - 1270
    Nigeria 564 - 613 - 1163
    Korea Republic 458 - 502 - 1145
    Ukraine 898 - 898 - 898
    Denmark 807 - 807 - 807
    Scotland 734 - 734 - 734
    Romania 733 - 733 - 733
    Sweden 724 - 724 - 724
    Venezuela 720 - 720 - 720
    Serbia 717 - 717 - 717
    Turkey 715 - 715 - 715
    Panama 684 - 684 - 684
    Czech Republic 646 - 646 - 646
    Egypt 645 - 645 - 645
    Slovenia 644 - 644 - 644
    Hungary 641 - 641 - 641
    Armenia 635 - 635 - 635
    Tunisia 621 - 621 - 621
    Austria 613 - 613 - 613
    Wales 606 - 606 - 606
    Slovakia 588 - 588 - 588
    Iceland 571 - 571 - 571
    Paraguay 566 - 566 - 566
    Montenegro 559 - 559 - 559
    Guinea 555 - 555 - 555
    Jordan 530 - 530 - 530
    Uzbekistan 523 - 523 - 523
    Norway 520 - 520 - 520
    Finland 508 - 508 - 508
    Burkina Faso 495 - 495 - 495
    Republic of Ireland 440 - 450 - 489
    Peru 487 - 487 - 487
    Mali 462 - 468 - 482
    Poland 477 - 477 - 477
    Senegal 476 - 476 - 476
    Libya 471 - 471 - 471
    Sierra Leone 469 - 469 - 469
    United Arab Emirates 464 - 464 - 464
    Albania 421 - 439 - 449
    South Africa 448 - 448 - 448
    Jamaica 365 - 385 - 444
    Israel 444 - 444 - 444
    Oman 443 - 443 - 443
    FYR Macedonia 386 - 435 - 440
    Bolivia 429 - 429 - 429
    Bulgaria 425 - 425 - 425
    Trinidad and Tobago 369 - 388 - 420
    Azerbaijan 410 - 410 - 410
    Angola 402 - 402 - 402
    Cape Verde Islands 401 - 401 - 401
    China PR 305 - 349 - 391
    Zambia 389 - 389 - 389

    First row: current rankings, supposing all remaining games this month would be cancelled.
    Second row: minimum rankings, supposing everyone loses their 3 group phase games (and all remaining friendlies are lost)
    Third row: maximum rankings, supposing everyone wins their 3 group phase games and win the 1/16 vs Argentina, 1/8 vs Portugal, 1/4 vs Brazil, 1/2 vs Germany and final vs. Spain (top 5 ranked teams). It would be hard for Spain to win vs spain, but this made the calculations easier.

    ReplyDelete
  3. All,

    responding to nogomet's request here are the probable results for the matches including the World Cup final, according to elo, and a prediction of the resulting top-30 of the July ranking:

    2014-06-09 Ghana - Korea Republic; Friendly; X
    2014-06-10 Republic of Ireland - Portugal; Friendly; 2
    2014-06-12 Brazil - Croatia; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-13 Mexico - Cameroon; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-13 Chile - Australia; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-13 Spain - Netherlands; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-14 Colombia - Greece; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-14 Cote d'Ivoire - Japan; World Cup; X
    2014-06-14 England - Italy; World Cup; X
    2014-06-14 Uruguay - Costa Rica; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-15 France - Honduras; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-15 Switzerland - Ecuador; World Cup; X
    2014-06-15 Argentina - Bosnia-Herzegovina; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-16 Iran - Nigeria; World Cup; X
    2014-06-16 Germany - Portugal; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-16 Ghana - USA; World Cup; 2
    2014-06-17 Brazil - Mexico; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-17 Belgium - Algeria; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-17 Russia - Korea Republic; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-18 Croatia - Cameroon; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-18 Netherlands - Australia; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-18 Spain - Chile; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-18 China PR - FYR Macedonia; Friendly; 1
    2014-06-19 Colombia - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-19 Greece - Japan; World Cup; X
    2014-06-19 Uruguay - England; World Cup; X
    2014-06-20 Costa Rica - Italy; World Cup; 2
    2014-06-20 Ecuador - Honduras; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-20 Switzerland - France; World Cup; X
    2014-06-21 Argentina - Iran; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-21 Bosnia-Herzegovina - Nigeria; World Cup; X
    2014-06-21 Germany - Ghana; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-22 Portugal - USA; World Cup; X
    2014-06-22 Algeria - Korea Republic; World Cup; X
    2014-06-22 Belgium - Russia; World Cup; X
    2014-06-23 Brazil - Cameroon; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-23 Croatia - Mexico; World Cup; X
    2014-06-23 Netherlands - Chile; World Cup; X
    2014-06-23 Spain - Australia; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-24 Colombia - Japan; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-24 Greece - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup; X
    2014-06-24 Costa Rica - England; World Cup; 2
    2014-06-24 Uruguay - Italy; World Cup; X
    2014-06-25 Ecuador - France; World Cup; X
    2014-06-25 Switzerland - Honduras; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-25 Argentina - Nigeria; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-25 Bosnia-Herzegovina - Iran; World Cup; X
    2014-06-26 Germany - USA; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-26 Portugal - Ghana; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-26 Algeria - Russia; World Cup; 2
    2014-06-26 Belgium - Korea Republic; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-28 Brazil - Netherlands; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-28 Colombia - Uruguay; World Cup; Colombia PSO win
    2014-06-29 Spain - Mexico; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-29 England - Greece; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-29 China PR - Mali; Friendly; 1
    2014-06-30 France - Bosnia-Herzegovina; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-30 Germany - Russia; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-01 Argentina - Switzerland; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-01 Belgium - Portugal; World Cup; Portugal PSO win
    2014-07-04 Brazil - Colombia; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-04 France - Germany; World Cup; 2
    2014-07-05 Spain - England; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-05 Argentina - Portugal; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-08 Brazil - Germany; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-09 Spain - Argentina; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-12 Germany - Argentina; World Cup; Germany PSO win
    2014-07-13 Brazil - Spain; World Cup; 1

    Predicted top-30 July ranking and changes compared to the June ranking:
    1 Spain 1791 (-)
    2 Brazil 1644 (+1)
    3 Germany 1627 (-1)
    4 Argentina 1568 (+1)
    5 Colombia 1440 (+3)
    6 Uruguay 1305 (+1)
    7 Belgium 1254 (+4)
    8 England 1178 (+2)
    9 Portugal 1167 (-5)
    10 Switzerland 1165 (-4)
    11 Italy 1148 (-2)
    12 France 1131 (+5)
    13 Russia 1080 (+6)
    14 USA 1018 (-1)
    15 Croatia 1007 (+3)
    16 Netherlands 999 (-1)
    17 Chile 971 (-3)
    18 Greece 960 (-6)
    19 Ecuador 957 (+7)
    20 Ukraine 898 (-4)
    21 Bosnia-Herzegovina 841 (-)
    22 Mexico 825 (-2)
    23 Cote d'Ivoire 818 (-)
    24 Denmark 807 (-1)
    25 Algeria 759 (-3)
    26 Scotland 734 (+1)
    27 Romania 733 (+2)
    28 Sweden 724 (+4)
    29 Venezuela 720 (+11)
    30 Serbia 717 (-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you very much, excellent work!

      Delete
  4. An update after the first round of group-matches in Brazil and including BRA-MEX of round two.

    Here's an updated list of predictions for the remainder of the matches, according to ELO:

    2014-06-18 Croatia - Cameroon; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-18 Netherlands - Australia; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-18 Spain - Chile; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-18 China PR - FYR Macedonia; Friendly; 1
    2014-06-19 Colombia - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-19 Greece - Japan; World Cup; X
    2014-06-19 Uruguay - England; World Cup; X
    2014-06-20 Costa Rica - Italy; World Cup; 2
    2014-06-20 Ecuador - Honduras; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-20 Switzerland - France; World Cup; X
    2014-06-21 Argentina - Iran; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-21 Bosnia-Herzegovina - Nigeria; World Cup; X
    2014-06-21 Germany - Ghana; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-21 Indonesia - Pakistan; Friendly; 1
    2014-06-22 Portugal - USA; World Cup; X
    2014-06-22 Algeria - Korea Republic; World Cup; X
    2014-06-22 Belgium - Russia; World Cup; X
    2014-06-22 China PR - FYR Macedonia; Friendly; 1
    2014-06-23 Brazil - Cameroon; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-23 Croatia - Mexico; World Cup; X
    2014-06-23 Netherlands - Chile; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-23 Spain - Australia; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-24 Colombia - Japan; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-24 Greece - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup; X
    2014-06-24 Costa Rica - England; World Cup; 2
    2014-06-24 Uruguay - Italy; World Cup; 2
    2014-06-25 Ecuador - France; World Cup; 2
    2014-06-25 Switzerland - Honduras; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-25 Argentina - Nigeria; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-25 Bosnia-Herzegovina - Iran; World Cup; X
    2014-06-25 Indonesia - Nepal; Friendly; 1
    2014-06-26 Germany - USA; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-26 Portugal - Ghana; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-26 Algeria - Russia; World Cup; 2
    2014-06-26 Belgium - Korea Republic; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-28 Brazil - Spain; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-28 Colombia - England; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-29 Netherlands - Mexico; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-29 Italy - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-29 China PR - Mali; Friendly; 1
    2014-06-30 Switzerland - Bosnia-Herzegovina; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-30 Germany - Russia; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-01 Argentina - France; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-01 Belgium - Portugal; World Cup; Portugal PSO win
    2014-07-02 Vietnam - Myanmar; Friendly; 1
    2014-07-04 Brazil - Colombia; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-04 Switzerland - Germany; World Cup; 2
    2014-07-05 Netherlands - Italy; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-05 Argentina - Portugal; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-08 Brazil - Germany; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-09 Netherlands - Argentina; World Cup; Netherlands PSO win
    2014-07-12 Germany - Argentina; World Cup; Germany PSO win
    2014-07-13 Brazil - Netherlands; World Cup; 1

    Spain's defeat against the Netherlands causes some major changes....

    Here's the predicted top-30 of the July ranking and the changes compared to the June ranking:
    1 Germany 1634 (+1)
    2 Argentina 1606 (+3)
    3 Brazil 1565 (-)
    4 Colombia 1489 (+4)
    5 Netherlands 1471 (+10)
    6 Italy 1409 (+3)
    7 Switzerland 1369 (-1)
    8 Spain 1360 (-7)
    9 Belgium 1254 (+2)
    10 Portugal 1167 (-6)
    11 France 1127 (+6)
    12 Uruguay 1100 (-5)
    13 England 1022 (-3)
    14 USA 1018 (-1)
    15 Russia 1009 (+4)
    16 Croatia 1007 (+2)
    17 Greece 991 (+5)
    18 Chile 918 (-4)
    19 Ukraine 898 (-3)
    20 Cote d'Ivoire 879 (+3)
    21 Mexico 862 (-1)
    22 Ecuador 849 (+4)
    23 Bosnia-Herzegovina 841 (-2)
    24 Denmark 807 (-1)
    25 Algeria 759 (-3)
    26 Scotland 734 (+1)
    27 Romania 733 (+2)
    28 Sweden 724 (+4)
    29 Costa Rica 723 (-1)
    30 Venezuela 720 (+10)

    The confederation weights used in the calculation of the FIFA-points for matches after the World Cup in Brazil are currently:
    CONMEBOL 1.00
    UEFA 0.99
    CONCACAF 0.90
    CAF/AFC/OFC 0.85

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. an addition to the last part of your post:

      Calculate the confederation weights yourselves:
      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xXV8P9IOcAU2fnTsfrkm4BItf29CQtt8tD6xDKg7U7Q/edit?usp=sharing

      Delete
  5. Ed,

    what are the timeframes (100%, 50%, 30% and 20%) in kuly?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jeroen,

      I assume you are interested in the dates of each timeframe for the July ranking calculation:
      1st timeframe: 17/7/2013 - 13/7/2014 (dates included)
      2nd timeframe: 17/7/2012 - 16/7/2013 (dates included)
      3rd timeframe: 18/7/2011 - 16/7/2012 (dates included)
      4th timeframe: 17/7/2010 - 17/7/2011 (dates included)

      Delete