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Friday, May 30, 2014

2014 FIFA World Cup simulations

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

Top 10 most likely finals:

6.69% - Brazil vs. Spain
5.17% - Argentina vs. Brazil
2.69% - Brazil vs. Germany
2.57% - Germany vs. Spain
2.14% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
2.14% - Brazil vs. Portugal
2.04% - Brazil vs. Uruguay
2.01% - Argentina vs. Germany
1.99% - Brazil vs. England
1.62% - Brazil vs. Italy



Eliminated in the group stage:

86.12% - Cameroon
84.41% - Australia
80.12% - Ghana
75.80% - Costa Rica
74.84% - Honduras
74.13% - Algeria
65.83% - Iran
61.07% - Nigeria
60.15% - Korea Republic
59.71% - Japan
59.38% - USA
57.83% - Croatia
57.39% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
54.95% - Chile
54.59% - Côte d'Ivoire
53.46% - Greece
53.46% - Mexico
45.46% - Switzerland
44.66% - Ecuador
42.47% - Italy
41.81% - Portugal
41.68% - Uruguay
40.75% - Netherlands
40.05% - England
35.04% - France
34.02% - Belgium
32.24% - Colombia
31.70% - Russia
19.89% - Spain
18.69% - Germany
15.71% - Argentina
2.59% - Brazil

Eliminated in the round of 16:

40.82% - Belgium
40.66% - Russia
32.90% - Colombia
32.17% - Argentina
31.17% - Netherlands
31.15% - Mexico
30.35% - Spain
29.95% - Croatia
29.50% - France
28.13% - Korea Republic
27.72% - Ecuador
27.52% - Switzerland
27.50% - Greece
27.02% - Chile
26.98% - Brazil
26.40% - Côte d'Ivoire
25.30% - Italy
24.71% - England
24.49% - Japan
24.18% - Uruguay
24.13% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
22.32% - Nigeria
21.61% - Portugal
21.09% - Germany
20.96% - Iran
19.54% - Algeria
17.44% - USA
15.68% - Honduras
14.52% - Costa Rica
11.69% - Australia
11.69% - Cameroon
10.71% - Ghana

Eliminated in the quarter finals:

21.93% - Colombia
20.94% - Argentina
20.86% - Uruguay
20.64% - Germany
20.43% - England
20.00% - Italy
18.28% - France
17.20% - Spain
16.91% - Portugal
16.52% - Brazil
15.31% - Russia
14.65% - Ecuador
14.63% - Switzerland
14.48% - Belgium
13.10% - Greece
13.08% - Côte d'Ivoire
12.07% - Netherlands
11.46% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
11.45% - USA
11.21% - Japan
10.34% - Nigeria
8.30% - Iran
8.23% - Chile
8.01% - Mexico
7.44% - Korea Republic
7.15% - Costa Rica
6.44% - Croatia
5.96% - Honduras
5.42% - Ghana
3.79% - Algeria
2.12% - Australia
1.65% - Cameroon

Out in the semifinals:

19.96% - Germany
15.59% - Argentina
14.57% - Brazil
11.33% - Spain
11.07% - Portugal
10.64% - France
8.29% - Ecuador
8.03% - Switzerland
7.44% - Russia
7.01% - USA
6.78% - Netherlands
6.75% - Belgium
6.57% - England
6.49% - Uruguay
6.28% - Colombia
6.11% - Italy
4.76% - Chile
4.74% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
4.23% - Nigeria
3.88% - Mexico
3.60% - Greece
3.44% - Côte d'Ivoire
3.31% - Iran
3.23% - Croatia
3.04% - Korea Republic
2.73% - Japan
2.71% - Ghana
2.43% - Honduras
2.08% - Algeria
1.51% - Costa Rica
0.95% - Australia
0.45% - Cameroon

Losing finalist:

11.51% - Brazil
9.41% - Spain
8.81% - Germany
8.18% - Argentina
5.04% - Netherlands
4.89% - Portugal
4.31% - England
4.03% - Uruguay
3.81% - Italy
3.74% - France
3.53% - Colombia
3.16% - Russia
2.98% - Chile
2.87% - USA
2.61% - Ecuador
2.59% - Belgium
2.51% - Switzerland
2.00% - Mexico
1.75% - Croatia
1.61% - Greece
1.45% - Côte d'Ivoire
1.42% - Nigeria
1.39% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
1.22% - Japan
1.18% - Iran
0.86% - Korea Republic
0.80% - Ghana
0.71% - Costa Rica
0.68% - Honduras
0.56% - Australia
0.34% - Algeria
0.05% - Cameroon

Winner:

27.83% - Brazil
11.82% - Spain
10.81% - Germany
7.41% - Argentina
4.19% - Netherlands
3.93% - England
3.71% - Portugal
3.12% - Colombia
2.80% - France
2.76% - Uruguay
2.31% - Italy
2.07% - Ecuador
2.06% - Chile
1.85% - Switzerland
1.85% - USA
1.73% - Russia
1.50% - Mexico
1.34% - Belgium
1.04% - Côte d'Ivoire
0.89% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.80% - Croatia
0.73% - Greece
0.64% - Japan
0.62% - Nigeria
0.42% - Iran
0.41% - Honduras
0.38% - Korea Republic
0.31% - Costa Rica
0.27% - Australia
0.24% - Ghana
0.12% - Algeria
0.04% - Cameroon


3 comments:

  1. Edgar,
    I'd also be interested in seeing the probability of each team making it to each of the knockout rounds. For the Round of 16, I know the probability is 1 minus the probability of getting knocked out in the group stage.

    But, what is the probability of each team making it to the quarter finals? What about the semi-finals? What about the finals?

    Many thanks!

    Also, will you be updating with fresh Elo rankings will all the recent friendlies???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. See here. Can't update with the most recent Elo rankings since Kirill hasn't updated them and I don't have the time to compute them myself.

      Delete