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Friday, June 27, 2014

2014 FIFA World Cup simulations (27 June 2014)

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

See the simulations from one week ago.

Top 10 most likely finals:

11.46% - Brazil vs. Netherlands
8.55% - Argentina vs. Brazil
7.45% - Germany vs. Netherlands
5.68% - Argentina vs. Germany
3.85% - Brazil vs. Mexico
3.75% - Belgium vs. Brazil
3.59% - Colombia vs. Netherlands
3.2% - France vs. Netherlands
3.02% - Brazil vs. USA
2.85% - Brazil vs. Costa Rica


Reaching the quarterfinals:

84.88% - Germany
74.21% - Brazil
67.62% - Netherlands
67.57% - France
67.2% - Argentina
57.74% - Colombia
52.11% - Costa Rica
51.87% - Belgium
48.13% - USA
47.89% - Greece
42.26% - Uruguay
32.8% - Switzerland
32.43% - Nigeria
32.38% - Mexico
25.79% - Chile
15.12% - Algeria

Reaching the semifinals:

56.33% - Germany
54.56% - Brazil
49.23% - Netherlands
41.8% - Argentina
29.51% - France
23.11% - Belgium
19.92% - Colombia
19.53% - Mexico
19.29% - USA
16.7% - Costa Rica
15.8% - Switzerland
14.54% - Greece
13.63% - Chile
11.89% - Uruguay
9.49% - Nigeria
4.67% - Algeria

Reaching the final:

38.36% - Brazil
29.88% - Netherlands
25.08% - Germany
23.02% - Argentina
10.77% - France
10.63% - Colombia
10.59% - Belgium
9.39% - Mexico
7.63% - USA
6.92% - Costa Rica
6.8% - Switzerland
6.52% - Chile
5.77% - Greece
5.34% - Uruguay
2.41% - Nigeria
0.89% - Algeria

Winners:

27.09% - Brazil
15.09% - Netherlands
14.61% - Germany
10.32% - Argentina
5.25% - Colombia
4.91% - France
4.06% - Belgium
3.46% - Mexico
3.17% - Chile
2.46% - Costa Rica
2.37% - USA
2.36% - Uruguay
2.26% - Switzerland
1.51% - Greece
0.8% - Nigeria
0.28% - Algeria

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