Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (12 December 2014)
Twitter Linked In

Friday, June 27, 2014

FIFA Ranking: July 2014 preview and probable ranking (27 June 2014)

Yes, two in one :)

22 matches left involving 25 teams. 6 friendlies and 16 World Cup matches.

Here's how the points and ranking could change for these 25 teams:




Team - Min points - Max points - Min Rank - Max Rank


Germany 1354 1724 12 1
Brazil 1126 1562 17 1
Argentina 1376 1803 12 1
Switzerland 1216 1655 16 1
Uruguay 1330 1736 12 1
Colombia 1389 1805 11 1
Belgium 1305 1729 12 1
Greece 1048 1453 18 1
USA 989 1294 18 6
Chile 1045 1464 18 1
Netherlands 1258 1637 14 1
France 1138 1510 17 1
Mexico 930 1242 20 7
Algeria 872 1377 25 2
Costa Rica 888 1277 25 6
Nigeria 664 959 34 16
Mali 462 483 65 60
Botswana 300 339 104 95
China PR 342 373 94 83
Tanzania 266 297 111 105
Mozambique 250 264 118 112
Malawi 218 253 128 116
Vietnam 195 217 137 129
Lesotho 182 238 141 121
Myanmar 122 162 160 148

Probable results generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

28/Jun Brazil - Chile 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
28/Jun Colombia - Uruguay 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
29/Jun China PR - Mali 1 (Friendly)
29/Jun Costa Rica - Greece X Costa Rica PSO (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
29/Jun Netherlands - Mexico 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
30/Jun France - Nigeria 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
30/Jun Germany - Algeria 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
01/Jul Argentina - Switzerland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
01/Jul Belgium - USA X Belgium PSO (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
01/Jul Botswana - Tanzania X (Friendly)
02/Jul Vietnam - Myanmar 1 (Friendly)
04/Jul Brazil - Colombia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
04/Jul France - Germany 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
05/Jul Argentina - Belgium 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
05/Jul Netherlands - Costa Rica 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
06/Jul Malawi - Mozambique X (Friendly)
08/Jul Brazil - Germany 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
09/Jul Netherlands - Argentina X Netherlands PSO (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
11/Jul Tanzania - Lesotho 1 (Friendly)
12/Jul Germany - Argentina X Germany PSO (FIFA World Cup™ Final)
13/Jul Botswana - Lesotho 1 (Friendly)
13/Jul Brazil - Netherlands 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Final)

Probable July 2014 rank - Team - Probable July 2014 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Argentina 1609 4 434
2 Brazil 1555 1 313
3 Germany 1549 -1 249
4 Colombia 1492 4 355
5 Netherlands 1444 10 463
6 Belgium 1351 5 277
7 Uruguay 1330 0 183
8 Spain 1229 -7 -256
9 Switzerland 1216 -3 67
10 France 1202 7 289
11 Portugal 1148 -7 -41
12 Greece 1091 0 27
13 Italy 1056 -4 -48
14 Chile 1045 0 19
15 USA 1024 -2 -11
16 Croatia 955 2 52
17 Costa Rica 942 11 180
18 Mexico 930 2 48
19 Bosnia-Herzegovina 917 2 44
20 England 911 -10 -179
21 Ecuador 901 5 110
22 Ukraine 898 -6 -17
23 Russia 897 -4 4
24 Algeria 872 -2 14
25 Côte d'Ivoire 850 -2 41
26 Denmark 807 -3 -2
27 Scotland 734 0 -52
28 Romania 733 1 -28
29 Sweden 724 3 -17
30 Venezuela 720 10 48
31 Serbia 717 -1 -28
32 Turkey 714 3 -8
33 Panama 684 -2 -59
34 Nigeria 664 10 24
35 Czech Republic 646 -1 -78
36 Egypt 645 0 -70
37 Slovenia 644 -12 -156
38 Ghana 642 -1 -62
38 Hungary 642 9 18
40 Honduras 637 -7 -94
41 Armenia 635 -3 -47
42 Tunisia 621 6 9
43 Austria 614 -1 -29
44 Wales 606 -3 -38
45 Japan 604 1 -22
46 Slovakia 588 3 -3
47 Iceland 570 5 4
48 Paraguay 566 2 -9
49 Iran 563 -6 -78
50 Montenegro 559 1 -15
51 Guinea 555 1 -11
52 Uzbekistan 523 7 -16
53 Norway 520 2 -42
53 Cameroon 520 3 -38
55 Finland 508 6 -24
56 Korea Republic 501 1 -46
57 Jordan 500 6 -10
58 Burkina Faso 495 2 -43
59 Peru 487 -14 -140
60 Poland 478 9 4
61 Senegal 476 13 25
62 Libya 471 2 -27
63 Sierra Leone 469 -9 -96
64 United Arab Emirates 466 8 6
65 Mali 462 -8 -85
66 South Africa 450 -1 -46
67 Albania 444 -1 -51
67 Israel 444 8 0
69 Oman 443 10 23
70 Republic of Ireland 440 0 -33
71 Bolivia 429 -4 -54
72 Bulgaria 425 6 0
73 Azerbaijan 410 10 14
74 FYR Macedonia 406 6 -13
75 Cape Verde Islands 401 -36 -273
76 Australia 397 -14 -129
77 Zambia 396 -1 -45
78 Saudi Arabia 384 12 3
79 Morocco 377 -2 -62
79 Angola 377 14 13
81 Belarus 376 1 -21
82 Congo 375 3 -18
83 Jamaica 373 -2 -38
83 China PR 373 20 42
85 Trinidad and Tobago 369 -14 -101
86 Palestine 362 8 4
87 Qatar 361 13 22
88 Uganda 358 -2 -32
89 Togo 357 -1 -26
90 Northern Ireland 356 0 -25
90 Iraq 356 14 27
92 Benin 354 -5 -32
93 Estonia 345 5 2
94 Gabon 344 -5 -38
95 Kenya 339 13 43
96 Congo DR 338 -12 -57
96 Georgia 338 0 -11
98 Zimbabwe 334 1 -6
99 Niger 332 13 48
100 New Zealand 330 -3 -17
101 Moldova 325 0 -9
102 Botswana 324 -10 -51
103 Latvia 314 6 21
104 Lithuania 312 2 -7
105 Bahrain 288 5 -1
106 Tanzania 283 7 0
107 Kuwait 281 8 5
108 Luxembourg 278 11 11
109 Rwanda 276 7 5
110 Ethiopia 273 -3 -44
111 Equatorial Guinea 270 -9 -63
112 Namibia 264 2 -13
113 Haiti 262 -40 -190
114 Liberia 256 2 -15
114 Sudan 256 6 2
116 Mozambique 255 2 -14
117 Central African Republic 253 -12 -68
118 Canada 250 -8 -39
119 Lebanon 249 6 16
120 Cuba 245 -25 -109
121 El Salvador 234 -53 -247
122 Aruba 233 -2 -21
123 Tajikistan 232 3 3
124 Dominican Republic 230 7 18
125 Malawi 229 -3 -18
126 Burundi 222 2 1
127 Kazakhstan 220 -3 -21
128 Philippines 218 1 1
129 Vietnam 217 -6 -25
129 Afghanistan 217 1 2
131 Suriname 213 5 16
132 Mauritania 208 5 12
133 Guatemala 204 -6 -22
134 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 203 -1 0
135 Guinea-Bissau 199 -1 -2
135 New Caledonia 199 5 9
137 St. Lucia 195 0 -1
138 Cyprus 193 4 4
139 Chad 183 -5 -18
139 Turkmenistan 183 4 0
141 Lesotho 182 -2 -12
141 Grenada 182 3 0
143 Madagascar 179 1 -3
144 Kyrgyzstan 176 5 13
145 Maldives 171 2 0
146 Syria 169 -6 -21
147 Korea DPR 163 -1 -12
148 Gambia 161 0 -5
149 Antigua and Barbuda 152 2 -6
150 Malta 146 -18 -58
151 Malaysia 144 2 -5
151 India 144 3 0
153 Indonesia 141 4 6
154 Singapore 140 1 -1
155 Guyana 136 1 -1
156 Puerto Rico 134 2 0
157 Thailand 128 -8 -35
158 St. Kitts and Nevis 124 2 0
159 Swaziland 123 14 38
160 Myanmar 122 -1 -11
161 Belize 117 -9 -35
162 Hong Kong 114 1 2
163 Bangladesh 103 4 5
164 Nepal 102 0 0
165 Pakistan 100 -1 -2
166 Montserrat 99 0 0
167 Liechtenstein 93 -5 -25
167 Dominica 93 2 0
169 Barbados 92 1 0
170 Laos 87 -2 -10
171 Tahiti 85 -10 -37
172 Comoros 84 2 0
173 Bermuda 83 2 0
174 Guam 79 4 2
175 Nicaragua 78 1 0
175 Solomon Islands 78 5 8
177 Sao Tome e Principe 72 -5 -14
178 Chinese Taipei 71 -2 -7
178 Sri Lanka 71 1 -2
180 Yemen 70 3 9
181 Turks and Caicos Islands 66 26 66
182 Seychelles 64 -1 -2
183 Curacao 63 -1 -2
184 Faroe Islands 61 -13 -28
185 Mauritius 56 -1 -1
186 South Sudan 43 -1 -4
187 Vanuatu 38 3 10
188 Fiji 31 0 -3
189 Mongolia 29 -2 -6
190 Samoa 28 -1 -4
190 US Virgin Islands 28 5 5
192 Bahamas 26 -6 -14
192 Brunei Darussalam 26 0 0
192 Timor-Leste 26 0 0
192 Tonga 26 0 0
196 Cayman Islands 21 0 0
197 American Samoa 18 1 0
198 Andorra 16 2 0
199 Papua New Guinea 14 -3 -7
200 Cambodia 13 -10 -15
200 British Virgin Islands 13 -2 -5
202 Eritrea 11 -1 0
203 Somalia 8 -1 0
204 Macau 7 -2 -1
205 Djibouti 6 -1 0
206 Cook Islands 5 -1 0
207 Anguilla 1 -1 -2
208 Bhutan 0 -1 0
208 San Marino 0 -1 0

6 comments:

  1. The round of 16 is completed. Some great, compelling matches, still no clear favourites for the title. Here's an update of the elo-predictions for the remaining matches, the resulting top-30 of the July ranking and the confederation weightings.

    No changes in elo-predictions:
    2014-07-02 Vietnam - Myanmar; Friendly; 1
    2014-07-04 Brazil - Colombia; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-04 France - Germany; World Cup; 2
    2014-07-05 Argentina - Belgium; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-05 Netherlands - Costa Rica; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-06 Malawi - Mozambique; Friendly; X
    2014-07-08 Brazil - Germany; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-09 Netherlands - Argentina; World Cup; Netherlands PSO win
    2014-07-11 Tanzania - Lesotho; Friendly; 1
    2014-07-12 Germany - Argentina; World Cup; Germany PSO win
    2014-07-13 Brazil - Netherlands; World Cup; 1

    1 Argentina 1609 (+4)
    2 Germany 1549 (-)
    3 Brazil 1511 (-)
    4 Colombia 1492 (+4)
    5 Netherlands 1444 (+10)
    6 Belgium 1401 (+5)
    7 Uruguay 1330 (-)
    8 Spain 1229 (-7)
    9 Switzerland 1216 (-3)
    10 France 1202 (+7)
    11 Portugal 1148 (-7)
    12 Chile 1098 (+2)
    13 Greece 1091 (-1)
    14 Italy 1056 (-5)
    15 USA 989 (-2)
    16 Croatia 955 (+2)
    17 Costa Rica 942 (+11)
    18 Mexico 930 (+2)
    19 Bosnia-Herzegovina 917 (+2)
    20 England 911 (-10)
    21 Ecuador 901 (+5)
    22 Ukraine 898 (-6)
    23 Russia 897 (-4)
    24 Algeria 872 (-2)
    25 Cote d'Ivoire 850 (-2)
    26 Denmark 807 (-3)
    27 Scotland 734 (-)
    28 Romania 733 (+1)
    29 Sweden 724 (+3)
    30 Venezuela 720 (+10)

    CONMEBOL 1.00
    UEFA 0.98
    CONCACAF/CAF/AFC/OFC 0.85

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Ed. Can you also post top-30 Elo rating before quartals? For me, Elo ranking is much more realistic than FIFA ranking, so one can make better predictions.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Current top-30 elo ranking:

    01 NED 2094
    02 BRA 2082
    03 GER 2078
    04 ARG 2040
    05 COL 2016
    06 ESP 1971
    07 CHI 1957
    08 FRA 1952
    09 BEL 1905
    10 POR 1895
    11 MEX 1868
    12 URU 1859
    13 ENG 1834
    14 ITA 1830
    15 SUI 1818
    16 USA 1817
    17 ECU 1815
    18 UKR 1814
    19 CRC 1805
    20 GRE 1793
    21 CRO 1773
    22 RUS 1772
    23 SWE 1768
    24 BIH 1759
    25 CIV 1758
    26 SRB 1740
    27 DEN 1735
    28 JPN 1718
    29 TUR 1717
    30 NGA 1715

    ReplyDelete
  4. The quarterfinals are completed. That was quite a bit less compelling alltogether. Brazil shapes up to be the only real favourite for the title. Here's an update of the elo-predictions for the remaining matches, the resulting top-30 of the July ranking and the current confederation weightings.

    Elo is doing OK in the predicting business so far, so no changes there:
    2014-07-06 Malawi - Mozambique; Friendly; X
    2014-07-08 Brazil - Germany; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-09 Netherlands - Argentina; World Cup; Netherlands PSO win
    2014-07-11 Congo DR - Gabon; Friendly; X
    2014-07-11 Uganda - Seychelles; Friendly; 1
    2014-07-12 Germany - Argentina; World Cup; Germany PSO win
    2014-07-13 Brazil - Netherlands; World Cup; 1

    1 Argentina 1609 (+4)
    2 Germany 1549 (-)
    3 Brazil 1511 (-)
    4 Colombia 1492 (+4)
    5 Netherlands 1408 (+10)
    6 Belgium 1401 (+5)
    7 Uruguay 1330 (-)
    8 Spain 1229 (-7)
    9 Switzerland 1216 (-3)
    10 France 1202 (+7)
    11 Portugal 1148 (-7)
    12 Chile 1098 (+2)
    13 Greece 1091 (-1)
    14 Italy 1056 (-5)
    15 USA 989 (-2)
    16 Costa Rica 942 (+12)
    17 Croatia 955 (+1)
    18 Mexico 930 (+2)
    19 Bosnia-Herzegovina 917 (+2)
    20 England 911 (-10)
    21 Ecuador 901 (+5)
    22 Ukraine 898 (-6)
    23 Russia 897 (-4)
    24 Algeria 872 (-2)
    25 Cote d'Ivoire 850 (-2)
    26 Denmark 807 (-3)
    27 Scotland 734 (-)
    28 Romania 733 (+1)
    29 Sweden 724 (+3)
    30 Venezuela 720 (+10)

    CONMEBOL 1.00
    UEFA 0.98
    CONCACAF/CAF/AFC/OFC 0.85
    These are also the final weightings if at least one CONMEBOL team makes it to the final. If it all goes UEFA's way in the semis then UEFA ends at 0.99.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oops, a small copy-paste error: Costa Rica has 986 points in July.

      Delete
  5. I will leave any predictions strictly to ELO in the future. No wait, ELO said the same :D

    ReplyDelete