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Friday, June 20, 2014

Confederation weightings update

After last night's matches, these are the new values.

UEFA 0.98
AFC, CAF, OFC 0.85

Since UEFA dropped from the top, will FIFA consider changing the formula yet again?


  1. Obviously this can't stand. FIFA will have to come up with something.

  2. One more question.

    Example from a previous post when it was just wins. How did you go from the raw average to the final weight?

    Confed Av02-10 FVal
    AFC 0.22 0.8
    CAF 0.21 0.79
    CONCACAF 0.22 0.8
    CONMEBOL 0.53 1
    UEFA 0.50 0.99

    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

    2. In Excel it's the following formula:


      It says: divide the average of a confederation by the maximum of the average over all confederations and take the 4-th root of the resulting value.
      The average of a confederation is computed as the average points won (1 point for a win, 0.5 point for a draw) in all interconfederational matches played in the last three WCs.
      The resulting weighting value per confederation can not be less than 0.85. The maximum weighting is per definition 1.

  3. Thanks. I figured the avg/max, it was the fourth root that was getting me.

  4. I've been doing the same calcs since the beginning and have been thinking the same thing.

  5. A few things to point out:
    CONCACAF is losing their best World Cup result(5.5 out of 10) from the past 3 so they need to maintain their success in this world cup to stay above .85 (coupled with CONMEBOL not producing as much).

    Despite UEFA falling a little so far, they are going to replace the worst of the last 3 world cups.(22.5 out of 44 in 2002) They are currently under that pace slightly.

    CONBEBOL is replacing 12/20 currently with a 9.5/13. Hence why they are pulled ahead of UEFA.

  6. At this point, the values are as follows:

    UEFA: 0.98
    CONCACAF: 0,86
    AFC: 0,85
    CAF: 0,85
    OFC: 0,85

    So nothing changed, except the value of CONCACAF. Honduras is the team to blame for that, losing their 2 games last week. AFC is done, OFC wasn't even in the WC and CAF has little chance of improving their value.

    All comes down to CONCACAF hoping to raise their value, CONMEBOL staying on top and UEFA trying to minimalize the damage.

    With the predictions placed in another topic, CONCACAF would also drop to 0,85 with UEFA ending on 0,98 and CONMEBOL on 1.