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Friday, July 25, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding: 'Only' 3 years and 3 months left

Yes, I know, it's too early. However, if FIFA will use again the October 2017 ranking, it means the results taken into account will be from October 2013 to October 2017, thus in less than three months the "0.2" time frame will close.

Needless to say, some big teams have had an unimpressive start or should I say they forgot to start?



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This is the top 40 (had to use 40 just to include England) of the intermediate October 2017 ranking:


1 Germany 204
2 Argentina 180
3 Netherlands 179
4 Colombia 168
5 France 141
6 Uruguay 138
7 Brazil 134
7 Belgium 134
9 Costa Rica 127
10 Chile 122
11 Portugal 120
12 Switzerland 113
13 Greece 93
14 Mexico 92
15 Algeria 82
16 USA 77
17 Scotland 74
18 Croatia 69
19 Côte d'Ivoire 65
20 Bosnia-Herzegovina 62
21 Spain 61
22 Nigeria 59
23 Ecuador 58
24 Ukraine 56
25 Palestine 54
25 Italy 54
27 Japan 53
28 Iran 51
29 Serbia 50
29 Egypt 50
31 Romania 47
32 Benin 46
33 Iraq 45
33 Botswana 45
33 Saudi Arabia 45
36 Austria 43
36 Ghana 43
36 England 43
39 Congo 42
39 Turkey 42

Right now, the seeds for the 2018 World Cup would be: Russia, Germany, Argentina, Netherlands, Colombia, France, Uruguay and Brazil.

With every confederation except CONMEBOL and UEFA at 0.85 in the new confederation weightings, it seems unlikely a team not in the big 2 will land a seed. However, there is hope (not for AFC nor OFC).

CAF have their Nations Cup in 2015 and 2017. CONCACAF too, and they also the Copa America 2016. It will be interesting to see how FIFA handle these matches - friendlies or continental final?

4 comments:

  1. How would one of the CONCACAF teams make up the 300 pts to get a top seed? Would they have to win both Gold Cups and the Copa America or just do very well in all three?

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    Replies
    1. Besides a good competitive record, they also need to know how to schedule friendlies.

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    2. 1) Schedule beneficial friendlies
      2) Win Gold Cup
      3) Finals/Win Confed and Copa America
      4) Near Perfect Record in WC qualifying
      5) Hope that teams above them schedule poor friendlies
      6) Hope that team above struggle a bit in qualifying for Euros, Copa America, WCQ

      It's extremely unlikely for a CONCACAF team to get to get a top seed absent hosting until CONCACAF strengthens it's modifier or FIFA changes the qualifying model.


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    3. Thanks Raphael thats about what I thought the bar would be: Good summary.

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