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Friday, December 12, 2014

UEFA Nations League update (12 December 2014)

Long overdue post. I know I promised to update the UNL coefficients, but didn't quite find the time until now.

All you need to know about this competition can be found on UEFA.com.


The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

Obviously, a lot has changed since April 2014.

Bosnia-Herzegovina and Greece managed to fall from League A to League C.

France, Czech Republic, Croatia and Romania replaced Switzerland and Russia in League A.
Slovakia, Poland, Israel, Norway and Republic of Ireland replaced Slovenia, Montenegro and Turkey in League B.
Northern Ireland and Cyprus replaced Armenia and Moldova in League C.

Best movers:

16 - Slovakia
13 - Czech Republic
12 - Poland

Worst movers:

-21 - Bosnia-Herzegovina and Greece
-14 - Turkey
-11 - Russia

Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points

 1  2 Germany             16037
 2  1 Netherlands         15325
 3  9 England             15101
 4 13 France              14516
 5  5 Spain               14492
 6 11 Italy               14365
 7 12 Ukraine             14026
 8  3 Belgium             14021
 9 22 Czech Republic      13941
10 14 Croatia             13841
11  8 Portugal            13652
12 15 Romania             13609
-------------------------------
13 16 Austria             13561
14 30 Slovakia            13531
15  7 Switzerland         13379
16 28 Poland              12921
17 21 Iceland             12874
18 20 Denmark             12801
19 26 Israel              12591
20 18 Hungary             12231
21 10 Russia              12230
22 32 Norway              12030
23 17 Sweden              11932
24 27 Republic of Ireland 11731
-------------------------------
25  4 Bosnia-Herzegovina  11582
26 23 Slovenia            11430
27  6 Greece              11170
28 38 Wales               11130
29 24 Montenegro          11030
30 41 Northern Ireland    10980
31 36 Scotland            10980
32 25 Serbia              10896
33 19 Turkey              10831
34 34 Lithuania           10520
35 29 Bulgaria            10230
36 34 Albania             10130
37 33 Finland              9780
38 46 Cyprus               9370
-------------------------------
39 31 Armenia              9040
40 43 Estonia              8840
41 37 Moldova              8470
42 42 FYR Macedonia        8390
43 44 Georgia              8303
44 40 Latvia               8120
45 50 Liechtenstein        7690
46 39 Azerbaijan           7580
47 45 Luxembourg           7250
48 47 Belarus              7148
49 48 Kazakhstan           7130
50 51 Faroe Islands        7070
51 49 Malta                6650
52 53 San Marino           5650
53 52 Andorra              5400
54 54 Gibraltar            4475

I assume teams will be split further into pots for the draw.

League A

Pot 1: Germany, Netherlands, England, France
Pot 2: Spain, Italy, Ukraine, Belgium
Pot 3: Czech Republic, Croatia, Portugal, Romania

League B

Pot 1: Austria, Slovakia, Switzerland, Poland
Pot 2: Iceland, Denmark, Israel, Hungary
Pot 3: Russia, Norway, Sweden, Republic of Ireland

League C

Pot 1: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Slovenia, Greece, Wales
Pot 2: Montenegro, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Serbia
Pot 3: Turkey, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Albania
Pot 4: Finland, Cyprus

League D

Pot 1: Armenia, Estonia, Moldova, FYR Macedonia
Pot 2: Georgia, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Azerbaijan
Pot 3: Luxembourg, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands
Pot 4: Malta, San Marino, Andorra, Gibraltar


8 comments:

  1. Good job! Do you know how will the pots for the EURO 2020 qualifying draw be decided? Will they use the same ranking or will the Nations league performance also have an influence?

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    Replies
    1. "The overall UEFA Nations League rankings will determine the composition of the draw pots for the subsequent European Qualifiers" ... "UEFA Nations League Final Four participants to be drawn into groups of five teams" - UEFA

      I'm guessing that the Final Four participants will be top seeds in 4 (of the 6) groups of five teams and the other 6 top seeds going to the 4 runners-up from League A and the 2 best placed bottom teams from League A. The next pot would include the remaining 2 League A teams + winners and runners-up from League B. and so on for the other pots.

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    2. IMO, that would be very strange. Let's say Spain, Germany, Netherlands get relegated to the second tier of the Nations League. That would mean they have no chance of being in the first pot for the EURO 2024 qualifying. Nations League would become more important coefficient-wise than World Cups and European Championships.

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    3. It's hard to tell without extra information but the overall UEFA Nations League rankings could be a big deal (as it potentially drops you down a pot for the subsequent European Qualifiers). With a 1 in 3 chance of being relegated, league A in particular is going to be cut-throat and the top teams might complain. Still this is only a guess. We'll have to wait until UEFA publishes the final format.

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  2. TY Edgar.

    According to UEFA: "The draw will include the necessary conditions to guarantee the sporting fairness and viability of the competition" ... I'm guessing this means that teams will be split further into pots for the draw (as in your assumption). E.g. in league A 1/3 of those teams will relegate ... that's a huge churn ... wouldn't be surprised if a Germany or Spain are relegated.

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  3. Does anyone know how the 2020-2021 UEFA Nations League will be used to qualify teams for the 22 World Cup? Could there be 9 groups of six teams, with only the group winner qualifying, while the remainig four teams

    ReplyDelete
  4. qualifying from the Nations League, just like for EURO

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That would be crazy. It's one thing to have a team from League D qualify for a 24-team Euros, another to have one automatically make the World Cup. Look at the list of League D teams!

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