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Friday, October 17, 2014

2018 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding: Oldest timeframe now closed

Next update: October 2018.

Assuming FIFA will again use the October 2017 ranking to determine the seeds, the 0.2 time frame (games played between 36 and 48 months ago relative to the release date) closed a couple of days ago.

It's not looking good for some of the big teams, but there's plenty of time to climb in the rankings.



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See the previous update.

Belgium replace Uruguay in the list of seeds.

This is the top 30 (just to include England and Spain) of the intermediate October 2017 ranking:


1 Germany 219
2 Argentina 188
3 Netherlands 185
4 Colombia 173
5 France 158
6 Belgium 155
7 Brazil 155
8 Uruguay 142
9 Costa Rica 128
10 Chile 126
11 Portugal 120
12 Slovakia 115
13 Switzerland 113
14 Algeria 111
15 Czech Republic 106
16 Austria 101
17 Greece 98
18 Croatia 97
19 Mexico 96
20 Ukraine 95
21 Italy 94
22 Scotland 93
23 Côte d'Ivoire 91
24 Romania 91
25 England 87
26 Spain 85
27 USA 80
28 Denmark 79
29 Guinea 74
30 Tunisia 74

Teams are sorted using the unrounded totals.

Right now, the seeds for the 2018 World Cup would be: Russia, Germany, Argentina, Netherlands, Colombia, France, Belgium and Brazil.

9 comments:

  1. Are these the final totals for the 0.2 cycle? Are you counting all games from November 1, 2013 - October 31, 2014?

    Try to figure out how to calculate these numbers myself.

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    Replies
    1. I assume the October 2017 ranking will be published on 12 October.

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    2. Why do you assume 12 October? In some months the publishing date is the first Thursday of the month, and in some it's the second Thursday. Is there any reason for this or is it simply random?

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    3. Two days after the October matches. See FIFA calendar

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    4. But why is the next publishing date set for 1 October 2015? There are matches later that month.

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    5. If you have the FIFA match calendar for 2009 and 2013 you'll notice a pattern: the October ranking used to seed the final draw was release 2 days after the October match dates.

      The October 2015 ranking date is in this case irrelevant.

      Delete
    6. I see. I was looking to find a more general pattern of determining publishing dates. I'm working on my own tables and I'm struggling to find out the dates for the 2016 and 2017. FIFA has announced the dates only for the 2015.

      Delete
  2. Any chance to update this one, with the probable seeds for 2018?

    ReplyDelete