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Friday, October 14, 2016

AFC MA Ranking update (14 October 2016)

The 2016 edition of the MA ranking, set to be announced at the end of the AFC club competition season, will be used to determine the slot allocations for 2017 and 2018 seasons. This has been announced by the AFC Competitions Committee on 12 April 2016.


See the previous update (23 September).

Club points updated after the end of the AFC CL and AFC Cup semifinals first legs.

FIFA ranking points computed for November 2016, considering scheduled matches as defeats.

Rank - Association - Total - NT Point - Club Points - 2014  Rank


1 Korea Republic 94.409 24.409 70.000 1
2 Saudi Arabia 87.313 23.189 64.124 2
3 United Arab Emirates 86.927 19.567 67.360 7
4 Iran 80.158 30.000 50.158 3
5 Qatar 78.514 14.646 63.869 9
6 Australia 74.470 24.567 49.903 6
7 China PR 73.878 15.630 58.248 8
8 Japan 73.867 20.984 52.883 4
9 Uzbekistan 57.969 21.181 36.788 5
10 Kuwait 37.477 4.606 32.871 11
11 Iraq 36.597 10.709 25.888 10
12 Syria 34.937 13.307 21.630 19
13 Thailand 33.735 7.165 26.569 13
14 Jordan 31.856 11.929 19.927 12
15 Hong Kong 31.664 6.969 24.696 20
16 Vietnam 29.532 8.583 20.949 15
17 Malaysia 29.134 5.630 23.504 22
18 Bahrain 28.408 10.354 18.054 16
19 India 27.789 8.543 19.246 23
20 Lebanon 22.192 6.693 15.499 17
21 Indonesia 20.654 3.622 17.032 18
22 Oman 19.853 10.315 9.538 14
23 Myanmar 17.761 5.157 12.603 21
24 Tajikistan 17.398 7.520 9.878 28
25 Maldives 15.863 6.496 9.367 26
26 Philippines 15.527 9.055 6.472 27
27 Singapore 13.529 4.843 8.686 24
28 Palestine 12.002 8.425 3.577 25
29 Turkmenistan 11.962 7.874 4.088 30
30 Kyrgyzstan 10.419 10.079 0.341 32
31 Korea DPR 8.780 8.780 0.000 31
32 Afghanistan 7.441 7.441 0.000 29
33 Yemen 7.244 7.244 0.000 35
34 Laos 6.178 4.134 2.044 33
35 Chinese Taipei 5.394 5.394 0.000 43
36 Cambodia 4.370 4.370 0.000 42
37 Bangladesh 4.329 3.307 1.022 37
38 Bhutan 4.055 4.055 0.000 46
39 Guam 3.189 3.189 0.000 34
40 Nepal 2.874 2.874 0.000 38
41 Timor-Leste 2.362 2.362 0.000 39
42 Sri Lanka 1.850 1.850 0.000 36
43 Pakistan 1.575 1.575 0.000 39
43 Macau 1.575 1.575 0.000 41
45 Brunei Darussalam 1.260 1.260 0.000 45
46 Mongolia 0.512 0.512 0.000 44

Saudi Arabia's win vs. United Arab Emirates propelled them to the top of the West region and triggers some changes in the play-off pairings.

I've ran 1000 simulations for the remaining club and national team matches. Here's the outcome:
  • Hong Kong now safe in 6th place in the East
  • 3 MAs fighting for 2nd in East region (3 direct GS slots): Japan 49.45%, Australia 34.88%, China PR 15.67%
  • The door is almost closed for the Philippines. 3 MAs fighting for the last 2 top 24 spots: Myanmar 98.69%, Tajikistan 98.05%, Philippines 3.26%
Using the same conditions as those in the 2016 AFC CL (i.e. Kuwait suspended; Iraq, Oman, Bahrain, Lebanon and Syria with no licensed clubs), this is how allocations and qualification shape up - assuming Tajikistan's champions get the license. I also assume Tajikistan will be moved to the East - to have 12 MAs in each region.

West

GS = Group Stage
PO = Play-off round
PR2 = 2nd preliminary round
PR1 = 1st preliminary round

Association - GS - PO - PR2 - PR1


Saudi Arabia 3 1 0 0
United Arab Emirates 3 1 0 0
Iran 3 1 0 0
Qatar 2 2 0 0
Uzbekistan 1 2 0 0
Jordan 0 1 0 0

Matches

Play-off round

Al-Taawoun (Saudi Arabia) vs. Al-Wehdat (Jordan)
Al-Wahda (United Arab Emirates) vs. Uzbekistan 3
Esteghlal (Iran)  vs. Al-Sadd (Qatar)
El Jaish (Qatar) vs. Uzbekistan 2

East

Association - GS - PO - PR2 - PR1


Korea Republic 3 1 0 0
Australia 3 0 0 0
China PR 2 1 1 0
Japan 2 1 1 0
Thailand 1 0 2 0
Hong Kong 1 0 1 0
Vietnam 0 0 1 0
Malaysia 0 0 1 0
India 0 0 1 0
Indonesia 0 0 1 0
Myanmar 0 0 0 1
Tajikistan 0 0 0 1

Matches

Preliminary round 1

[1] Yadanarbon (Myanmar) vs. Tajikistan 1

Preliminary round 2

[2] China PR 4 vs. Match [1] winners
[3] Japan 4 vs. Indonesia 1
[4] Thailand 2 vs. Bengaluru FC (India)
[5] Thailand 3 vs. Johor Darul Ta'zim (Malaysia)
[6] Southern District (Hong Kong) vs. Hà Nội T&T (Vietnam)

Play-off round

Korea Republic 4 vs. Match [6] winners
China PR 3 vs. Match [5] winners
Japan 3 vs. Match [4] winners
Match [2] winners vs. Match [3] winners

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