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Friday, May 6, 2016

FIFA Ranking: June 2016 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the June 2016 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

20/May Hungary - Côte d'Ivoire X (Friendly)
22/May Puerto Rico - USA 2 (Friendly)
22/May England - Turkey 1 (Friendly)
23/May Peru - Trinidad and Tobago 1 (Friendly)
24/May Panama - Venezuela 1 (Friendly)
25/May Serbia - Cyprus 1 (Friendly)
25/May USA - Ecuador X (Friendly)
25/May Congo DR - Romania 2 (Friendly)
26/May Azerbaijan - Andorra 1 (Friendly)
27/May Slovakia - Georgia 1 (Friendly)
27/May Nigeria - Mali X (Friendly)
27/May Czech Republic - Malta 1 (Friendly)
27/May Chile - Jamaica 1 (Friendly)
27/May Northern Ireland - Belarus 1 (Friendly)
27/May England - Australia 1 (Friendly)
27/May Republic of Ireland - Netherlands X (Friendly)
27/May Costa Rica - Venezuela 1 (Friendly)
27/May Uruguay - Trinidad and Tobago 1 (Friendly)
27/May Argentina - Honduras 1 (Friendly)
27/May Croatia - Moldova 1 (Friendly)
28/May Guatemala - Armenia X (Friendly)
28/May Morocco - Congo 1 (Friendly)
28/May Myanmar - Malaysia X (Friendly)
28/May Rwanda - Senegal 2 (Friendly)
28/May Tahiti - Samoa 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
28/May Mexico - Paraguay 1 (Friendly)
28/May Switzerland - Belgium X (Friendly)
28/May USA - Bolivia 1 (Friendly)
28/May Papua New Guinea - New Caledonia 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
28/May Peru - El Salvador 1 (Friendly)
29/May Albania - Qatar X (Friendly)
29/May FYR Macedonia - Azerbaijan X (Friendly)
29/May Kenya - Tanzania 1 (Friendly)
29/May Lithuania - Estonia X (Friendly)
29/May New Zealand - Fiji 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
29/May Colombia - Haiti 1 (Friendly)
29/May Germany - Slovakia 1 (Friendly)
29/May Spain - Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 (Friendly)
29/May Vanuatu - Solomon Islands X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
29/May Cambodia - Timor-Leste X (Friendly)
29/May Panama - Brazil 2 (Friendly)
29/May Romania - Ukraine X (Friendly)
29/May Portugal - Norway 1 (Friendly)
29/May Italy - Scotland 1 (Friendly)
29/May Turkey - Montenegro 1 (Friendly)


  1. Austria will play against Malta on May 31st - is this too late for the June ranking?

  2. Why FIFA site is showing up 30th May matches in June ranking calculations? Is it true?

  3. So I took a look at the FIFA prognosis tool again. It still doesn't make a reliable impression. For the June ranking they also display all matches played on May 30th until June 2nd (that is, except England-Portugal !).
    The June ranking is published Thursday June 2nd and the Sunday before (May 29th) is the deadline for matches to be taken into account for this ranking. That's their own custom rule for some years now.

    I don't think this has anything to do with the extra June ranking, because in that case they would have to include much more matches played in the weekend of June 3-5 (f.i. the African qualifiers).

    So I think it is just another error on their part.

    Btw the OFC Nations Cup matches are displayed until and including June 1st (so after two rounds of group matches).

  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

  5. Please Ed tell us more about the special june ranking for africa , if it will be released on june 9th . so the 4 years cycles will be as follows:

    9 june 2012-8 june 2013
    9 june 2013-8 june 2014
    9 june 2014-8 june 2015
    9 june 2015- 8 june 2016


    10 june 2012-9 june 2013
    10 june 2013-9 june 2014
    10 june 2014-9 june 2015
    10 june 2015-9 june 2016??

  6. Replies
    1. Hi Ed,

      It doesn't make sense to have the first time frame from 9 june 2012 and all the other frames from june 10 (2013-2014-2015) ,, is there a link on the fifa website that ensures that the time frame start from that date . ( I mean generally ) .

    2. Hey Fan,
      yes, I agree it makes absolutely no sense but alas there is no official link to prove it (at least not that I'm aware of).
      It's just the way it has been done all the years that I calculate the rankings: the first three timeframes consist of 365 days each and the fourth timeframe consists of 366 days.

    3. Probably to account for the leap year? :p

    4. I understand that Trofim, but why not correct for the leap year in the timeframe where the leap day really occurs ? So that each timeframe starts at the publishing date minus 1, 2, 3 or 4 years.
      That's what makes no sense for me.

  7. Hi Ed
    Do rankings June 2 will be applied to Africa or will be delayed to June 9 .. Is arranging Tanzania will change if rankings has been postponed to June 9 after the game Kenya 29/5 .. any that Egypt will meet the new to arrange Tanzania (129: 138), for example

  8. Anon, I didn't quite understand your question, so apologies if my answer goes astray.
    I assume that for all matches played after the deadline (Sunday May 29th) for the official June ranking, the matchpoints will be calculated with the official June ranking positions.
    Of course FIFA does not give any factual information on how they will calculate this extraordinary case of a special ranking published on another date than the official publishing date.

  9. Edgar, what formula and what cutoff points do you use to determine 1, 2, or X (home win, away win, draw)?

    1. 0.3817 - 0.6183

      This is based on the average number of matches ending in draws.

      The win expectancy is computed after adding the home advantage (if needed).