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Friday, November 18, 2016

FIFA Ranking: November 2016 final preview

5 matches left before the deadline. 4 group stage matches of the 2016 AFF Championship and a friendly: St. Kitts and Nevis vs. Estonia.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 24 November.



This is how the points and ranks could change for these 10 teams:

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Worst rank - Best rank

St. Kitts and Nevis 432 464 82 76
Philippines 283 302 118 113
Estonia 256 285 127 117
Thailand 223 235 132 129
Vietnam 219 235 136 129
Malaysia 147 158 160 156
Singapore 132 149 167 157
Myanmar 131 151 167 156
Cambodia 129 138 168 162
Indonesia 100 128 179 169

In the table below I've used the minimum points for these teams.

Best movers:

38 - Armenia
25 - Israel
23 - Tahiti

Worst movers:

-49 - Chad
-29 - Turkmenistan
-24 - Kyrgyzstan

Best movers in the top 50:

17 - Burkina Faso
10 - Republic of Ireland, Egypt, Nigeria


Worst movers in the top 50:

-14 - Uzbekistan
-8 - Australia, Ghana
-5 - Romania

Three teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Guinea-Bissau (68 - 69 in October 2016)
Curaçao (75 - 77 in October 2016)
Comoros (139 - 143 in October 2016)

Peru will return to their best ever ranking (19th in July 2013).

British Virgin Islands will return to their worst ever ranking (204th in July 2016).

Nine teams will drop to new lows:

Russia (55 - 53 in October 2016)
Norway (84 - 81 in October 2016)
Angola (144 - 137 in July 2016)
FYR Macedonia (at most 162 - 155 in October 2016)
Kuwait (at most 172 - 167 in October 2016)
St. Vincent and the Grenadines (at most 177 - 170 in February 2004)
Malta (182 - 178 in October 2016)
Liechtenstein (189 - 183 in October 2016)
Sri Lanka (195 - 194 in November 2015)

Some teams will reach their best ranking in the last couple of years:

Namibia (98 - 98 in November 2001) - 14 years and 10 months
Brazil (2 - 1 in May 2010) - 6 years and 4 months
Syria (94 - 94 in September 2010) - 6 years
Chinese Taipei (at least 159 - 147 in March 2011) - 5 years and 6 months

Others will drop to their worst ever ranking in the last couple of years:

Gabon (111 - 112 in January 2005) - 11 years and 8 months
Ghana (53 - 62 in September 2005) - 11 years
Tanzania (at most 160 - 167 in May 2006) - 10 years and 4 months
Jordan (109 - 111 in December 2009) - 6 years and 9 months
Cape Verde Islands (at most 80 - 91 in September 2011) - 5 years

Poland will be ranked above Italy for the first time ever.
Peru will be ranked above Netherlands for the first time ever.
Senegal will be ranked above Côte d'Ivoire for the first time in the last 10 years and 4 months.
Congo DR will be ranked above Ghana for the first time in the last 11 years and 3 months.
Burkina Faso will be ranked above Russia for the first time ever.
Burkina Faso will be ranked above Ghana for the first time in the last 12 years and 3 months.
Benin will be ranked above Scotland for the first time ever.
Guinea-Bissau will be ranked above Guinea for the first time ever.
Haiti, Antigua and Barbuda, China PR will be ranked above Norway for the first time ever.
Curaçao will be ranked above Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago for the first time ever.
Lesotho will be ranked above Angola for the first time ever.
Cambodia and Laos will be ranked above Kuwait for the first time ever.

November 2016 rank - Team - November 2016 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
 
1 Argentina 1634 0 13
2 Brazil 1544 1 134
3 Germany 1433 -1 -32
4 Chile 1404 2 131
5 Belgium 1368 -1 -14
6 Colombia 1345 -1 -16
7 France 1305 0 34
8 Portugal 1229 0 -2
9 Uruguay 1187 0 12
10 Spain 1166 0 -2
11 Switzerland 1129 3 58
12 Wales 1121 -1 8
13 England 1114 -1 24
14 Croatia 1103 2 76
15 Poland 1089 0 60
16 Italy 1083 -3 1
17 Costa Rica 1041 1 70
18 Mexico 1012 -1 11
19 Peru 965 4 100
20 Ecuador 890 -1 -42
21 Iceland 889 0 -9
22 Netherlands 887 -2 -14
23 Republic of Ireland 858 10 82
24 Turkey 851 1 8
25 Slovakia 837 1 -3
26 Hungary 826 -4 -65
27 Bosnia and Herzegovina 825 1 18
28 USA 822 -4 -30
29 Ukraine 804 0 1
30 Iran 797 -3 -40
31 Austria 773 -1 -19
32 Northern Ireland 767 4 28
33 Senegal 755 -1 -28
34 Côte d'Ivoire 738 -3 -52
34 Tunisia 738 4 17
36 Egypt 719 10 93
37 Korea Republic 699 7 59
38 Algeria 692 -3 -49
39 Romania 690 -5 -56
40 Paraguay 684 -3 -54
41 Sweden 675 -2 -40
42 Greece 674 0 18
43 Czech Republic 671 -3 8
44 Serbia 647 -1 -3
45 Japan 644 6 43
46 Denmark 643 4 37
47 Congo DR 638 2 29
48 Australia 636 -8 -27
49 Albania 618 -2 -1
50 Nigeria 616 10 54
50 Slovenia 616 2 21
50 Burkina Faso 616 17 97
53 Ghana 611 -8 -17
54 Israel 595 25 145
55 Russia 592 -2 -2
56 Saudi Arabia 589 -2 -4
57 Morocco 587 3 25
58 Panama 584 5 33
59 Venezuela 581 9 65
60 South Africa 571 2 12
61 Mali 569 -3 1
62 Uzbekistan 558 -14 -59
63 Montenegro 549 -7 -21
64 United Arab Emirates 537 6 24
65 Cameroon 534 -6 -33
66 Benin 526 0 1
67 Scotland 524 -10 -45
68 Guinea-Bissau 515 1 0
69 Haiti 505 18 100
70 Congo 504 -15 -71
71 Guinea 500 -7 -39
72 Bulgaria 492 17 97
73 Uganda 488 -1 -12
74 Belarus 470 3 18
75 Curaçao 467 2 15
76 Honduras 461 10 50
76 Jamaica 461 -1 -3
78 Trinidad and Tobago 454 -13 -79
79 Guatemala 450 4 16
80 Cape Verde Islands 443 -9 -65
81 Antigua and Barbuda 433 1 -2
82 St. Kitts and Nevis 432 -9 -40
83 China PR 423 1 4
84 Faroe Islands 422 -10 -47
84 Norway 422 -3 -16
86 Libya 417 -10 -44
87 Armenia 412 38 142
88 Qatar 409 3 24
89 Kenya 397 -4 -19
90 Azerbaijan 386 -2 -18
91 Togo 374 2 -1
91 Zambia 374 3 0
93 Finland 368 8 31
94 Syria 363 2 6
95 Bolivia 359 -15 -85
96 Sierra Leone 357 1 5
97 Kazakhstan 354 -7 -32
98 Namibia 347 20 47
99 Nicaragua 346 8 21
100 Swaziland 343 6 13
101 Rwanda 336 6 11
102 Liberia 327 2 -5
102 Malawi 327 -2 -11
104 Central African Republic 325 3 0
105 Lithuania 324 -7 -23
106 Zimbabwe 323 4 0
107 Mauritania 322 8 14
108 Mozambique 320 -13 -39
109 Jordan 313 -5 -19
110 New Zealand 311 6 5
111 Gabon 308 -1 -15
112 Latvia 304 4 -2
113 Botswana 296 -12 -41
114 Equatorial Guinea 293 -22 -87
115 Ethiopia 291 11 24
116 Cyprus 290 23 62
117 Philippines 283 7 12
118 Canada 282 -8 -41
119 Georgia 281 3 5
120 Iraq 279 -7 -35
121 Korea DPR 274 5 7
122 Oman 266 7 6
123 Kyrgyzstan 265 -24 -78
124 Cuba 264 18 38
125 Dominican Republic 263 -4 -18
126 Bahrain 259 -3 -13
127 Estonia 256 -8 -43
128 Niger 246 0 -16
129 Tajikistan 231 11 4
130 Luxembourg 230 0 -22
131 Thailand 223 15 16
132 Burundi 222 6 -7
132 Palestine 222 -12 -63
134 Guyana 221 -3 -26
135 Madagascar 220 -2 -23
136 Vietnam 219 0 -12
137 India 217 0 -13
138 El Salvador 216 -3 -16
139 Comoros 206 4 -17
140 Hong Kong 205 0 -22
140 Sudan 205 8 1
142 Lesotho 202 8 1
143 Turkmenistan 200 -29 -109
144 Angola 199 -10 -37
145 Mauritius 194 6 0
145 Puerto Rico 194 6 0
147 Afghanistan 189 -2 -19
148 Lebanon 185 1 -17
149 Tahiti 184 23 64
149 Yemen 184 -17 -60
151 Suriname 183 -4 -22
152 Chad 179 -49 -155
153 São Tomé e Príncipe 177 0 0
154 Maldives 165 4 4
155 Barbados 163 2 0
156 Grenada 150 -2 -22
157 Chinese Taipei 149 4 4
158 Malaysia 147 6 12
158 Aruba 147 2 0
160 Tanzania 146 -16 -66
161 Belize 141 2 0
162 FYR Macedonia 138 -7 -29
162 Moldova 138 11 19
164 Kosovo 135 0 0
165 Singapore 132 6 10
166 Myanmar 131 -10 -34
167 Laos 130 8 23
168 Cambodia 129 -1 6
169 South Sudan 123 -2 0
169 New Caledonia 123 -3 -5
171 Papua New Guinea 122 -12 -30
172 Kuwait 117 -5 -6
173 Dominica 110 1 0
174 Gambia 106 2 0
174 Vanuatu 106 3 3
176 Bhutan 103 3 10
177 Fiji 102 2 9
177 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 102 -15 -40
179 Indonesia 100 0 7
180 St. Lucia 95 -13 -28
181 Nepal 90 5 16
182 Malta 85 -4 -12
183 Bangladesh 84 5 11
184 Macau 82 12 42
185 Guam 81 -3 -5
186 Seychelles 79 -2 0
187 Bermuda 77 -2 0
187 Solomon Islands 77 6 21
189 Liechtenstein 75 -6 -6
190 Brunei Darussalam 74 2 17
191 American Samoa 64 -2 0
191 Cook Islands 64 -2 0
191 Samoa 64 -2 0
191 Timor-Leste 64 -5 -10
195 Sri Lanka 44 -1 -4
195 US Virgin Islands 44 0 0
197 Pakistan 40 0 1
198 Mongolia 38 4 25
199 Montserrat 30 -1 0
200 Cayman Islands 21 -1 0
201 Turks and Caicos Islands 20 -1 0
202 San Marino 17 -1 0
203 Andorra 12 0 1
204 British Virgin Islands 11 -1 0
205 Anguilla 0 0 0
205 Bahamas 0 0 0
205 Djibouti 0 0 0
205 Eritrea 0 0 0
205 Gibraltar 0 0 0
205 Somalia 0 0 0
205 Tonga 0 0 0

15 comments:

  1. When calculating points for Chilean awarded win vs. Bolivia, shouldn't the August 2016 ranking be taken into account (Bolivia were 110th), instead of the October ranking (Bolivia on 80th spot)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FIFA have used the ranking available at the date the match was awarded.

      Delete
  2. Nogomet, any sane human being would think so, but no: when FIFA adds a match to the fixture list or awards a match later on, they calculate the matchpoints with the opponents position from the current ranking at the moment the decision was taken instead of taking the position from the ranking at the moment the match was actually played.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's just crazy. It's difficult to find an issue where FIFA doesn't screw it up. :)

      When will the Chile-Bolivia match switch to the 0.5 timeframe? A year after the match was actually played, or a year after the decision was made?

      Delete
    2. Why FIFA didn't include the match Vietnam won Syria 2-0 in May 2016 ?

      Delete
  3. Timeframe switches are always determined by date of play.

    ReplyDelete
  4. That´s why the presentation of matchdates in the fixturelist on their site is so confusing. A match in the Americas is dated one day later than it is actually played just because I look at their site from a European timezone. Talking about crazy and very unlogical.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Croatia are scheduled to play two matches in the "China Cup" in January 2017, alongside China, Chile and Iceland.

    I don't know about other teams, but Croatia will play only with players from the domestic league, meaning that only a few players from the usual 23 player roster will be present. Is there a way that these matches will not be considered as "A matches" and thus not included for the FIFA ranking calculations because too many A team players are missing?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. substitute 7 players is one way; about other ways, I think it's hard to happen.

      Delete
    2. nogomet, here is the official FIFA-circulaire that states the rules for including a friendly in the fixture list.

      Delete
    3. Thanks. So both teams need to field "their first representative team". This most certainly will not be the case for Croatia, probably Chile as well, but there is no word on the mechanics FIFA uses to assess whether a team is "first representative".

      Delete
    4. Well, I remember the Asia-trip the Netherlands made in the Summer of 2013 with matches against Indonesia and China. The selection for that trip consisted for ca. 70% of non-regular internationals and they played both matches with some 60% non-regular internationals. But the friendlies (both wins) did count for the ranking though.
      As long as a team is not defined beforehand as an U23 or other age-restricted team, I think FIFA just looks at the rules and can't take the 'feeling' about a team into consideration here.
      The only way for Croatia to express this feeling is by 'breaking the rules' as Dinh already suggested.

      For FIFA the distinction of pure B-teams that African top-countries so regularly make for friendlies, can't be made that easily for European countries. And even the matches in the last two editions of the African Championship of Nations (with restrictions about players playing in homeland competitions only) are now included in the ranking.

      Delete
  6. Why in earth Elo Ratings awards +12 points for a previsible 0-2 win for the Brazilian side against Venezuela but only +6 points for Germany in their 3-0 win over Czech Republic? I mean, neither of the matches can be considered a upset but Czech Republic qualified for Euros while Venezuela lies last in South American qualifiers. In this case Germany defeated a slightly (at least) stronger opponent by a greater margin but received less points. How did they came out with this difference? Which part of their formula allowed such result? http://www.eloratings.net/Brazil.htm http://www.eloratings.net/Germany.htm

    ReplyDelete
  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete